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Week Ahead: Central Banks & Data Back In Focus

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FXTM Chief Market Strategist Hussein Sayed comments on the expected rate rise by the Fed in the week ahead:

Although Donald Trump policies will remain to be the key moving indicators for financial markets in the days and weeks to come, central banks and economic data will attract some attention the week ahead.

The Fed
In December, the Federal Reserve signaled that they may rise rates three times in 2017 however it looks certain that Wednesday’s meeting won’t be one of the three.

The U.S. economy grew at slowest pace in five years in 2016 by only 1.6%, but another favored indicator for the Federal Reserve, the final domestic sales number which excludes inventories and trade, expanded by 2.5% in Q4 compared to 2.1% in the previous quarter.

In contrast, consumer prices rose in 2016 at the fastest pace in five years to break above 2.0% suggesting that the Fed’s favored PCE data will edge closer to the 2% targeted inflation.

However, the biggest unknown factor remains to be fiscal policies and since there’s no clear roadmap yet the Fed will take no action and like us they will keep monitoring Trump’s announcements.

Since Wednesday’s interest rate decision won’t be accompanied by a press conference or economic and rate projections, it’s going to be all about the released statement. A hawkish tone that opens the door for a rate hike in the following meeting will likely give another push for the dollar given that only 25% is being priced in for a rate increase in March.

Other Central Banks
Sterling traders will also be interested in Bank of England’s Super Thursday, when the central bank announces interest rate decision along with its quarterly inflation report. Just like the Fed, the BoE isn’t likely to take any actions on Thursday leaving interest rates and quantitative easing measures unchanged. But given that the pound has dropped by more than 15% against the dollar and around 12% on trade weighted basis since the Brexit vote – inflation expectations will probably push the central bank towards a more hawkish tone giving a reason for traders to buy the pound on the dips.

The least interesting central bank meeting is going to be Bank of Japan. Although we believe that the next step is likely to be tightening monetary policy, I think it’s still very early to announce any future tightening measures. Thus, the Yen will likely take its cue from risk appetite/aversion in financial markets.

Friday’s NFP
On the data front, the U.S. is expected to have added 171K non-farm payroll jobs in January, up from 156K in December.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise by 0.3% compared to 0.4% in the previous month. If the data doesn’t deviate a lot for expectations the impact on the dollar will be limited, and investors’ attention will turn back to the White House.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Directs Banks, Fintechs to Complete Cybersecurity Audit Tool

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks and other financial institutions to complete a newly deployed cybersecurity self-assessment tool (CSAT) as part of efforts to strengthen resilience across the financial system.

CBN Directs Banks, Fintechs to Complete Cybersecurity Audit Tool

In a circular dated March 30, the apex bank said the tool was introduced in line with its mandate under the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act 2020 and is designed to assess the cybersecurity posture of regulated entities.

According to the circular signed by Olubunmi Ayodele-Oni for the director of the compliance department, deposit money banks are required to submit their completed assessments within three weeks, while other institutions have five weeks.

The directive, which takes immediate effect, applies to deposit money banks, payment service banks, microfinance banks, payment service providers, finance companies, and development finance institutions.

“The CSAT is a structured supervisory instrument designed to obtain comprehensive information on the cybersecurity posture of regulated institutions,” the circular reads.

“It covers key areas including cybersecurity governance, risk management practices, technology and third-party risk controls, incident response capabilities, and overall operational resilience.

“Insights derived from the CSAT will support risk-based supervision and enhance regulatory oversight of cybersecurity risks across the financial system.

“Accordingly, all the referenced institutions are required to complete and submit the CSAT through a dedicated submission portal.”

The regulator added that access to the submission portal and guidance would be provided to chief information security officers and other relevant officials of the affected institutions.

CBN said all submissions must reflect data as of December 31, 2025, and be accompanied by relevant supporting documentation where applicable.

The apex bank warned that “submission of false, misleading, or inaccurate information constitutes a regulatory breach,” and would attract sanctions in line with BOFIA 2020.

CBN also said validation exercises, including off-site reviews and supervisory engagements, would be conducted to verify the accuracy of submissions.


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NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

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NGX Regulation Limited (NGX REGCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has sanctioned five trading license holders for alleged market manipulation and other prohibited trading activities, imposing fines totaling N291million.

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

In a notification dated March 27, 2026, and addressed to Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator said the decision followed deliberations of its Regulatory and New Business Committee (RNBC) held on March 16 and 24, 2026.

The sanctioned firms are CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Cowry Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, SMADAC Securities Limited, and Associated Asset Managers Limited.

NGX RegCo stated that the cases were escalated by its Investigation Panel after hearings on February 25 and March 17, 2026, which uncovered repeated infractions such as wash trades, self-matching transactions, artificial price formation, and misleading market activity.

CSL Stockbrokers was fined N91.29 million, while Cowry Securities, Meristem Stockbrokers, SMADAC Securities, and Associated Asset Managers were each penalized N50 million in accordance with the Investment and Securities Act 2025.

The Exchange also directed the affected firms to undertake mandatory compliance and market conduct training to reinforce regulatory adherence and enhance market discipline.

It noted that the sanctions are proportionate to the violations and are intended to deter future misconduct, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding market integrity, protecting investors, and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.


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FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

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Federal government has launched the “Cross-Border Digital Payments and Identity in Nigeria under the AfCFTA” report, urging stakeholders to unlock trade opportunities for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to access the $3.5 trillion African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) market.

FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

The high-level report, hosted by the Office of the Vice President in collaboration with ODI Global under the Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (SITA) programme, was unveiled by Ibrahim Hassan-Hadejia, deputy chief of staff to the President, in Abuja.

Hassan-Hadejia described the research as both timely and strategic, noting the strong coordination by the Office of the Vice President and the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

He revealed that the cross-border payments report followed earlier milestones, including the development and launch of Nigeria’s Digital Trade Strategy and a capacity-building programme for subnational leaders.

Furthermore, he said Nigeria is increasingly assuming a leading role in shaping the digital trade agenda across the African continent, necessitating that the country remains at the forefront of AfCFTA implementation.

He noted that deepening engagement with AfCFTA and enabling businesses, particularly SMEs, to conduct seamless cross-border transactions will be critical to unlocking trade, fostering growth, and creating jobs.

He further stated that efficient cross-border payments, supported by trusted digital identity systems as recommended in the report, will be key to realising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope vision for Nigerian MSMEs.

The Deputy Chief of Staff also observed that while the report identifies the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a critical platform for cross-border digital payments, Nigerian fintech firms such as PalmPay and Moniepoint, which have some of the largest and most active user bases, will play a pivotal role in driving adoption.

He assured that the Federal Government remains committed to strengthening critical infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships to ensure Nigeria is not only ready for digital trade but continues to lead.

“I appreciate the efforts of all stakeholders and urge us to move AfCFTA beyond a continental agreement to a $3.5 trillion trade juggernaut that will reinvigorate our industries, unlock intra-African trade, and domesticate African prosperity,” he added.

He said “intra-African trade will be driven not only by large corporations but by small businesses empowered through digital trade and e-commerce, while noting that issues of trust, identity, and logistics, as highlighted in the report, must be addressed”.

Commenting on the report, Temitola Adekunle-Johnson, special Adviser to the President on Job Creation and MSMEs, said the report – developed under the purview of the Office of the Vice President-would significantly strengthen the MSME ecosystem.

He expressed optimism that the report’s findings and recommendations would enable Nigerian SMEs to achieve seamless access to continental markets.

Salihu Dasuki, special Assistant to the President on ICT Policy, Office of the Vice President, disclosed that the office, in partnership with development partners, has developed a framework to fast-track seamless cross-border payments for MSMEs.

He added that “a key pillar of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is enabling Nigerians to access digital trade, which informed the capacity-building programme conducted for subnational governments last year”.

Shuda Ahmed, special assistant to the President on Project Support, Office of the Vice President, commended ODI Global for leading the research underpinning the report.

She noted that without seamless and affordable cross-border payment systems, MSMEs across the continent would be unable to scale beyond their domestic markets.

The event was attended by officials of ODI Global, representatives of AfCFTA, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and MSMEs, among other key stakeholders.


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