By Blaise Udunze

As the new economic year begins in Nigeria, statements and policies emanating from government officials’ corridors project cautious optimism. One of the official narratives that expresses renewal of hope and confidence is the projection from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the economy is expected to continue expanding, with GDP growth at 4.49 percent, and headline inflation is projected to moderate to 12.9 percent. Despite grappling with shrinking oil revenues, rising public debt, and widening fiscal deficits as a nation, it is further projected that the foreign reserves are anticipated to exceed $50 billion. Policymakers presented these figures as evidence that the economy is stabilising and consolidating, irrespective of the clear evidence of years of turbulence.

Yet the concern for experts is that beyond the polished macroeconomic indicators lies a widening disconnect between statistical recovery and lived reality. While increasingly warning that stability is necessary, the views across academia, civil society, labour groups, and the private sector, experts clearly stated that it is not synonymous with sustainable growth, nor does it automatically improve living standards for millions of Nigerians grappling with unemployment, rising prices, and fragile livelihoods.

This development signals the economic debate entering 2026, as evident in the previous years, the argument that the year must not become another chapter in which rhetoric outpaces results. To them, it must place productivity, inclusion, and welfare at the heart of reform as all this must be informed via a decisive shift toward holistic, people-centered economic renewal.

The Numbers and the Narrative

There is no denying that certain macroeconomic indicators have improved. Tighter monetary policy in 2025, foreign exchange market unification, and efforts to rein in deficit financing have contributed to relative stability in inflation dynamics and exchange rate volatility.

However, economists interviewed by major national dailies argue that many of these gains remain largely “on paper.” They clearly stated that growth figures have not translated into broad-based job creation, rising real incomes, or improved business conditions for small enterprises. It is regrettable that households whose spending is dominated by food, transport, and energy, whilst inflation. However, easing remains painfully high relative to income, and this disconnect underscores a deeper flaw in economic communication and design, showing that headline indicators often mask structural weaknesses. GDP growth does not automatically reflect productivity expansion, employment quality, or resilience. Foreign reserves alone do not guarantee the affordability of necessities. When policy emphasis centres on aggregates rather than outcomes, reform risks losing social legitimacy.

When Stability Isn’t Enough

The inflation debate illustrates this dilemma clearly, and projections suggest moderation in 2026, yet prices of essential goods remain high. Low-income households, especially those outside formal wage employment, bear a disproportionate burden. For them, “disinflation” offers little relief when purchasing power has already been eroded. In like manner, exchange rate unification, though economically rational, imposed short-term shocks on import-dependent businesses and consumers. The fact remains that without a simultaneous and aggressive push to strengthen domestic production, the nation’s currency reforms risk transferring adjustment costs to households rather than building long-term competitiveness. These debates reveal two competing visions of economic management:

–       One that prioritises macroeconomic order and investor confidence

–       Another that insists stability must be matched by visible improvements in welfare, productivity, and opportunity.

The fact is that a holistic renewal agenda must reconcile both.

Macroeconomic Stability as Foundation, Not Destination

To be clear, stability matters, and it must be treated as a foundation, not the finish line. One will conclude that this is what it is meant to be because economic planning becomes impossible without disciplined fiscal management, credible monetary policy, and sustainable debt dynamics. Experts caution against celebrating stabilisation while growth remains modest.

The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s growth to slow toward three per cent, with further moderation in 2026 due largely to weaker global demand and declining oil prices. Crude oil’s fall below Nigeria’s budget benchmark reinforces the urgency of diversification. Moderate growth, without deep structural reform, cannot absorb Nigeria’s rapidly expanding labour force. This is because as a young, fast-growing population requires productivity-led growth, not cyclical rebounds tied to commodity prices.

Infrastructure as the Productivity Multiplier

Infrastructure remains one of Nigeria’s most binding constraints, commonly associated with the lingering erratic power supply, congested transport corridors, inefficient ports, and weak digital connectivity, which impose high costs on businesses and households alike.

Consistently, it is argued by experts that fragmented projects are insufficient by objectively looking at the trend of things; what is required is integrated infrastructure planning that links energy reform with transport logistics, industrial clusters, rural access roads, and digital platforms. Some of the key grey areas that the electricity reform must address are not just generation but transmission losses, distribution inefficiencies, and tariff credibility. Without much ado, transport investments should prioritise economic corridors and channels that connect farms to markets and factories to ports. Digital infrastructure, broadband access, data systems, and digital public services must be recognised as essential economic infrastructure, not optional upgrades.

Human Capital and the Missing Engine of Growth

No economy can sustainably outgrow the quality of its people. Yet education and healthcare often remain peripheral in reform discourse.

Today, we noticed that Nigeria’s education system struggles with skill mismatches, while healthcare costs push millions into poverty.

Economic growth, no matter how well-measured, will remain shallow, as experts have maintained in their arguments that this will remain a constant factor without human capital reform. In the same manner, education, which is a key instrument for building human capital, must be in alignment with labour-market needs, while reflecting technical skills, digital literacy, and adaptability, knowing quite well that vocational and technical are critical and should be elevated as engines of productivity, not treated as second-tier options. Human capital is not social expenditure; it is economic investment, so for this reason, healthcare investment, like others, must prioritise preventive care, insurance coverage, and workforce retention.

Private Sector and MSMEs, From Constraint to Catalyst

Small and medium-sized enterprises are already struggling to survive in Nigeria’s high-cost economy, despite being the nation’s largest employer of labour, as informed by high interest rates, limited credit access, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Access to affordable finance, regulatory simplicity, predictable tax policy, and contract enforcement are critical since experts repeatedly stress that reform must shift from controlling enterprise to enabling it.

Without deliberate support for small businesses, growth remains concentrated, informal employment persists, and inequality deepens. For these reasons, MSMEs require not just credit, but stable operating environments.

Industrialisation, Local Production, and Value Addition

One of the strongest expert warnings ahead of 2026 concerns Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports and raw commodity exports. This structure leaves the economy exposed to external shocks and foreign exchange volatility. For this reason, we have continued to witness economists and industry leaders advocating aggressive support for local production, agro-processing, and manufacturing value chains. Strengthening domestic capacity reduces import dependence, stabilises foreign exchange demand, and creates jobs.

Industrial policy must practically focus on sectors where Nigeria has a comparative advantage, supported by infrastructure, skills, and finance. This is to say that import substitution without competitiveness risks inefficiency, and value addition with productivity creates resilience.

Fiscal Reform and Social Justice

Fiscal reform is very important, and experts have argued that to make sure that fiscal reform is done in a fair way, it must be equitable. The tax officials must ensure that extending the tax base, it does not translate into overburdening small businesses or low-income earners. Also, one would have noticed that the removal of fuel subsidies freed fiscal space, but without strong social safety nets, it also made life very tough for a lot of people because they did not have any help when they needed it. Critics argue that reform savings must be visibly social investments like education, healthcare, transport, and targeted welfare. Social protection is not charity; it is economic stabilisation, preventing reform shocks from eroding social cohesion.

Governance, Institutions, and Policy Credibility

Unique to the Nigerian system, we have witnessed economic reforms fail where institutions are weak. This is because trust and investment have been undermined due to Policy reversals, regulatory inconsistency, and the lack of transparent decision-making.

Beyond rhetoric to enforcement, experts emphasise the need for policy coherence, institutional professionalism, and transparent communication. Anti-corruption efforts must extend. Prolonged Judicial judgement, particularly in commercial dispute resolution, has adversely impeded the smooth running of society as it questions the credibility of the system. Good governance is not abstract morality, rather it is a growth multiplier.

Agriculture, Food Security, and Rural Stability

Food inflation remains a major driver of hardship and has been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn. Though trade liberalisation has occasionally eased prices, experts argue that without boosting domestic agricultural productivity, food security will remain fragile.

Mechanisation, storage infrastructure, rural roads, insurance, and access to finance are essential. Equally critical is addressing rural insecurity, which disrupts production and inflates food prices.

Agriculture links economic growth directly to poverty reduction and social stability.

Digital Economy and Innovation

Technology is no longer a sector; it is a layer across all sectors. One can argue that Nigeria’s fintech success demonstrates what is possible, but looking at it intently, a broader digital transformation requires investment in connectivity, data protection, and cybersecurity. Regulation must be enabling, must be able to change when necessary, and forward-looking to achieve a thriving digital economy that can generate jobs, improve service delivery, and connect local firms to global markets.

The Productivity Challenge in Decline

Across expert critiques, one theme recurs: stability without productivity is stagnation.

An economy can be stable yet unproductive, grow slowly, create little or no jobs, and remain vulnerable to shocks. Productivity growth transforms stability into prosperity. It requires investment in people, infrastructure, innovation, and institutions.

Without productivity, growth becomes cyclical, driven by oil prices, not by domestic capacity.

From Rhetoric to Resonance: Closing the Credibility Gap

As Nigeria enters 2026, it has to choose to either settle for modest stability and make progress or pursue bold, people-centred strategies that generate shared prosperity.

The signs of stabilisation are real. But so is the urgency for deeper reforms that trickles down to the daily lives of those at the lower rung. Growth must be measured not only in GDP figures, inflation rates, or reserves, but in the number of jobs that are being created, the people who are earning money, and the businesses that are still running, with hope restored. It is expected that a true economic renewal in 2026 will not be announced; it will be felt.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]