General News
Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital
By Blaise Udunze
Despite the fragile 2024 economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weak growth, Nigeria’s banking industry was widely portrayed as successful and strong amid triumphal headlines. The figures appeared to signal strength, resilience, and superior management as the Tier-1 banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, and First Bank of Nigeria, collectively reported profits approaching, and in some cases exceeding, N1 trillion. Surprisingly, a year later, these same banks touted as sound and solid are locked in a frenetic race to the capital markets, issuing rights offers and public placements back-to-back to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N500 billion recapitalisation thresholds.
The contradiction is glaring. If Nigeria’s biggest banks are so profitable, why are they unable to internally fund their new capital requirements? Why have no fewer than 27 banks tapped the capital market in quick succession despite repeated assurances of balance-sheet robustness? And more fundamentally, what do these record profits actually say about the real health of the banking system?
The recapitalisation directive announced by the CBN in 2024 was ambitious by design. Banks with international licences were required to raise minimum capital to N500 billion by March 2026, while national and regional banks faced lower but still substantial thresholds ranging from N200 billion to N50 billion, respectively. Looking at the policy, it was sold as a modern reform meant to make banks stronger, more resilient in tough times, and better able to support major long-term economic development. In theory, strong banks should welcome such reforms. In practice, the scramble that followed has exposed uncomfortable truths about the structure of bank profitability in Nigeria.
At the heart of the inconsistency is a fundamental misunderstanding often encouraged by the banks themselves between profits and capital. Unknown to many, profitability, no matter how impressive, does not automatically translate into regulatory capital. Primarily, the CBN’s recapitalisation framework actually focuses on money paid in by shareholders when buying shares, fresh equity injected by investors over retained earnings or profits that exist mainly on paper.
This distinction matters because much of the profit surge recorded in 2024 and early 2025 was neither cash-generative nor sustainably repeatable. A significant portion of those headline banks’ profits reported actually came from foreign exchange revaluation gains following the sharp fall of the naira after exchange-rate unification. The industry witnessed that banks’ holding dollar-denominated assets their books showed bigger numbers as their balance sheets swell in naira terms, creating enormous paper profits without a corresponding improvement in underlying operational strength. These gains inflated income statements but did little to strengthen core capital, especially after the CBN barred banks from using FX revaluation gains for dividends or routine operations. In effect, banks looked richer without becoming stronger.
Beyond FX effects, Nigerian banks have increasingly relied on non-interest income fees, charges, and transaction levies to drive profitability. While this model is lucrative, it does not necessarily deepen financial intermediation or expand productive lending. High profits built on customer charges rather than loan growth offer limited support for long-term balance-sheet expansion. They also leave banks vulnerable when macroeconomic conditions shift, as is now happening.
Indeed, the recapitalisation exercise coincides with a turning point in the monetary cycle. The extraordinary conditions that supported bank earnings in 2024 and 2025 are beginning to unwind. Analysts now warn that Nigerian banks are approaching earnings reset, as net interest margins the backbone of traditional banking profitability, come under sustained pressure.
Renaissance Capital, in a January note, projects that major banks including Zenith, GTCO, Access Holdings, and UBA will struggle to deliver earnings growth in 2026 comparable to recent performance.
In a real sense, the CBN is expected to lower interest rates by 400 to 500 basis points because inflation is slowing down, and this means that banks will earn less on loans and government bonds, but they may not be able to quickly lower the interest they pay on deposits or other debts. The cash reserve requirements are still elevated, which does not earn interest; banks can’t easily increase or expand lending investments to make up for lower returns. The implications are significant. Net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments and what they pay on deposits, is poised to contract. Deposit competition is intensifying as lenders fight to shore up liquidity ahead of recapitalisation deadlines, pushing up funding costs. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds, long a safe and lucrative haven for banks are expected to soften in a lower-rate environment. The result is a narrowing profit cushion just as banks are being asked to carry far larger equity bases.
Compounding this challenge is the fading of FX revaluation windfalls. With the naira relatively more stable in early 2026, the non-cash gains that once flattered bank earnings have largely evaporated. What remains is the less glamorous reality of core banking operations: credit risk management, cost efficiency, and genuine loan growth in a sluggish economy. In this new environment, maintaining headline profits will be far harder, even before accounting for the dilutive impact of recapitalisation.
That dilution is another underappreciated consequence of the capital rush. Massive share issuances mean that even if banks manage to sustain absolute profit levels, earnings per share and return on equity are likely to decline. Zenith, Access, UBA, and others are dramatically increasing their share counts. The same earnings pie is now being divided among many more shareholders, making individual returns leaner than during the pre-recapitalisation boom. For investors, the optics of strong profits may soon give way to the reality of weaker per-share performance.
Yet banks have pressed ahead, not only out of regulatory necessity but also strategic calculation.
During this period of recapitalization, investors are interested in the stock market with optimism, especially about bank shares, as banks are raising fresh capital, and this makes it easier to attract investments. This has become a season for the management teams to seize the moment to raise funds at relatively attractive valuations, strengthen ownership positions, and position themselves for post-recapitalisation dominance. In several cases, major shareholders and insiders have increased their stakes, as projected in the media, signalling confidence in long-term prospects even as near-term returns face pressure.
There is also a broader structural ambition at play. Well-capitalised banks can take on larger single obligor exposures, finance infrastructure projects, expand regionally, and compete more credibly with pan-African and global peers. From this perspective, recapitalisation is not merely about compliance but about reshaping the competitive hierarchy of Nigerian banking. What will be witnessed in the industry is that those who succeed will emerge larger, fewer, and more powerful. Those that fail will be forced into consolidation, retreat, or irrelevance.
For the wider economy, the outcome is ambiguous. Stronger banks with deeper capital buffers could improve systemic stability and enhance Nigeria’s ability to fund long-term development. The point is that while merging or consolidating banks may make them safer, it can also harm the market and the economy because it will reduce competition, let a few banks dominate, and encourage them to earn easy money from bonds and fees instead of funding real businesses. The truth be told, injecting more capital into the banks without complementary reforms in credit infrastructure, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal discipline, isn’t enough as the aforementioned reforms are also needed.
The rush as exposed in this period, is that the moment Nigerian banks started raising new capital, the glaring reality behind their reported profits became clearer, that profits weren’t purely from good management, while the financial industry is not as sound and strong as its headline figures. The fact that trillion-naira profit banks must return repeatedly to shareholders for fresh capital is not a sign of excess strength, but of structural imbalance.
With the deadline for banks to raise new capital coming soon, by 31 March 2026, the focus has shifted from just raising N500 billion. N200 billion or N50 billion to think about the future shape and quality of Nigeria’s financial industry, or what it will actually look like afterward. Will recapitalisation mark a turning point toward deeper intermediation, lower dependence on speculative gains, and stronger support for economic growth? Or will it simply reset the numbers while leaving underlying incentives unchanged?
The answer will define the next chapter of Nigerian banking long after the capital market roadshows have ended and the profit headlines have faded.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
United States has introduced further restrictions on potential asylum seekers by requiring US visa applicants to confirm they do not fear persecution in their home countries.
Donald Trump administration’s goal is to prevent individuals from using non-immigrant visas as a means to claim asylum once they reach US soil.
According to a diplomatic notice sent to all embassies and consulates this week, applicants for non-immigrant visas, including tourists, students, and temporary workers, must now affirm their safety at home to be eligible for entry.
This move is part of a broader shift in policies designed to tighten US immigration controls.
New screening procedures
Consular officers have been instructed to ask two specific questions during the application process:
“Have you experienced harm or mistreatment in your country of nationality or last habitual residence?”
“Do you fear harm or mistreatment in returning to your country of nationality or permanent residence?”
“Visa applicants must respond verbally with a ‘no’ to both questions for the consular officer to continue with visa issuance.”
The statement notes, “Consular officers must prevent abuse of the immigration system by visa applicants who misrepresent their purpose of travel, including those who attempt to obtain nonimmigrant visas for the purpose of claiming asylum upon arrival in the United States.”
A State Department spokesperson defended the measure, stating: “Consular officers are the first line of defence for US national security.
The department uses all available tools and resources to determine whether each visa applicant qualifies under US law”.
To qualify for asylum under current law, an individual must be physically present in the US and be fleeing persecution based on race, religion, or political affiliation.
However, immigration experts warn that these new requirements may force vulnerable individuals into dangerous situations.
Camille Mackler, an immigration policy consultant, told CNN that the directive “is going to put people in really bad, terrible positions of having to make choices that ultimately affect their and their family’s safety.”
She added: “I also think this pushes people to unsafer pathways and unsafer routes, because if you need to leave, you leave, and you do whatever you need to do to do that.”
The rule follows other recent measures, including increased vetting for student visas and a temporary suspension of immigrant visa processing for 75 countries earlier this year.
General News
Fiona Ahimie, MD First Securities Brokers Elected First Female President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers
The Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS) has elected Fiona Ahmed Ahimie, Managing Director, First Securities Brokers Limited, a subsidiary of FirstHoldCo Plc., as its 14th President, making her the first woman to be elected President and Chairman of Council in the Institute’s history.
Her emergence is more than a leadership change it is a defining milestone that signals the rising influence of women at the highest levels of Nigeria’s financial services industry and underscores the evolving face of capital market leadership.
With close to two decades of distinguished experience spanning stockbroking, investment banking, private equity, real estate, wealth management and business development, Fiona brings deep market insight, global exposure and a proven track record of delivering growth and market impact.
She began her career at one of Nigeria’s prominent Stockbroking firms, where she built a solid foundation in capital market operations and foreign investor deal flows. She later joined FBN Capital (now FirstCap) as Head of Sales Trading, playing a pivotal role in managing both international and domestic institutional deal flows.
In 2015, she was appointed Managing Director of African Alliance Securities Nigeria, where she drove significant expansion in market share, client base, and cross-border transactions.
Since joining First Securities Brokers Limited in 2016, she has led a remarkable transformational growth, positioning the firm among Nigeria’s top-tier brokerage houses by 2018 through enhanced execution capabilities and increased global investor participation.
Beyond executive management, Fiona has held several board and board committee roles and currently serves on the boards of First Funds (the private equity arm of FirstHoldCo Group), NGX Real Estate Limited (a subsidiary of NGX Group), Japtini Logistics, and Awabaah (a micro- pensions business). She is also a member of the Statutory Audit Committee of the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS).
An advocate of continuous learning and thought leadership, Fiona has received executive education from MIT Sloan School of Management (USA), IESE Business School (Spain), and INSEAD (France). She is a Doctorate candidate at Afe Babalola University Business School.
Her professional affiliations include being a Chartered Stockbroker, Chartered Accountant, and Chartered Director, she is also an Honorary Member of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, she also serves on the Curriculum Review Committee of Lagos Business School and has been a mentor on the WIMBIZ Women on Boards Programme for four consecutive years.
Beyond corporate leadership, Fiona is deeply committed to philanthropy, supporting multiple institutions and sponsoring the education of young people reflecting her passion for inclusive growth and generational impact.
Her leadership philosophy is guided by enduring principles, excellence in execution, a refusal to settle for mediocrity, and an unwavering commitment to integrity and fairness.
Fiona’s presidency comes at a pivotal time for Nigeria’s capital market, as it navigates increased global integration, regulatory evolution, and rapid digital innovation. As President, she is poised to advance strategic priorities including deepening the market, strengthening professional standards, enhancing investor confidence, and nurturing the next generation of capital market professionals.
Fiona will assume office on April 30, 2026, with her formal investiture scheduled for June 25, 2026, where key stakeholders across Nigeria’s financial ecosystem are expected to gather to mark this historic leadership transition.
National Data Protection Commission (NDPC) has revealed that it recorded over 1,500 cyberattack attempts within a short period, exposing critical gaps in Nigeria’s data protection ecosystem.
The National Commissioner of NDPC, Dr. Vincent Olatunji, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on the sidelines of a data protection training programme in Lagos.
Olatunji said the surge in cyberattacks forced the commission to temporarily shut down its network as a security measure to prevent hackers from breaching its systems.
“This temporary shutdown was a preventive move to stop the attackers from succeeding; it underscores how serious the threats have become,” he said.
Olatunji said cyber threats had become persistent and increasingly sophisticated, requiring organisations to adopt proactive and continuous security measures.
“Cyberattacks are no longer occasional; they are constant. Organisations must monitor their systems round the clock and remain up to date with security protocols,” Olatunji said.
He stressed that entities handling personal and sensitive data must implement robust cybersecurity frameworks, regular audits and incident‑response plans to reduce exposure.
The NDPC commissioner highlighted the acute shortage of qualified Data Protection Officers (DPOs) as a major challenge in Nigeria’s data protection landscape.
He said the Nigeria Data Protection Act mandates organisations to appoint DPOs, creating a surge in demand for certified professionals that the current workforce cannot meet.
“There is a significant gap between demand and supply of skilled personnel. This training is designed to prepare participants not just for certification, but to fill that gap effectively,” he said.
Olatunji said Nigeria’s data protection ecosystem had recorded notable growth under a Public‑Private Partnership (PPP) model, generating over 10 million dollars in value.
He also revealed that the framework had generated more than seven billion naira in government revenue through registration fees and fines.
“Beyond revenue, it has strengthened Nigeria’s global reputation and boosted investor confidence in how data is managed and protected,” he said.
On ransomware attacks, Olatunji warned organisations against paying ransoms, stressing that payment emboldened cybercriminals and encouraged further targeting.
“Once you pay, you empower attackers. The focus should be on strengthening systems to prevent breaches, having backup plans, and responding swiftly when incidents occur,” he said.
He urged both public and private institutions to prioritise resilience over quick fixes when dealing with cyber extortion.
Facilitator Dr. Taiwo Oyeleye said the ongoing training programme was designed to equip participants with both theoretical and practical knowledge of data protection and privacy.
“They will gain a clear understanding of data protection principles, organisational frameworks and technical safeguards required to secure sensitive information,” he said.
Oyeleye expressed confidence that participants would help bridge existing awareness and capacity gaps across sectors such as finance, health, telecommunications and government services.
Another facilitator, Mr. Wole Jacobs, advocated for stronger collaboration between the NDPC and the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) to confront emerging cyber threats.
Jacobs said the training would enhance participants’ capacity to protect data, promote awareness and contribute to Nigeria’s digital‑transformation agenda.
He emphasised the need for continuous learning and adherence to global best practices in cybersecurity and data‑privacy standards.
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