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Will Nigeria Join OPEC in production cuts?
By Lukman Otunuga
The past few weeks have certainly not been kind to Oil markets amid oversupply concerns and fears over slowing global growth negatively impacting demand.
Severely depressed Oil prices have hit Nigeria’s government revenues, weighed on official Naira pegged against the Dollar and fuelled concerns over the implementation of the 2019 budget which pegged Oil at $60 per barrel. With the nation still in the process of recovering from a recession, the government may think twice about joining OPEC in production cuts.
It must be kept in mind that Nigeria was exempted from the OPEC deal signed in November 2016 thanks to domestic risk factors. With the security situation in Nigeria still fragile, growth slowly picking up momentum and diversification plans in the process, this may not be the best of times for the nation to limit production.
The current environment certainly presents a strong argument for OPEC+ to take action in a bid to stop Oil prices sinking into 2019. While a cut is on the cards, the question on the minds of many investors will be how much will be cut and how it will be split among OPEC+ members. Markets are projecting OPEC to cut production by roughly over one million barrels per day from November’s level. A cut that is in line with market expectations will be supportive of Oil prices. However, if OPEC disappoints by leaving production unchanged, Oil prices are at threat of tumbling sharply.
Dollar on standby ahead of NFP
Away from Nigeria, the Dollar is likely to remain in a narrow range ahead of the US jobs reports scheduled for release on Friday. The Dollar was attacked from all directions earlier in the week after an inversion of the US Treasury yield curve stimulated fears over the US economy decelerating. Sentiment towards the Greenback could still swing in favour of the bulls this week if the US jobs report ticks all the boxes. A strong NFP figure coupled with signs of accelerating wage growth in November will reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates in 2019.
Sterling unsettled by Brexit uncertainty
Political drama in the United Kingdom has left the British pound quite unsettled. Theresa May’s repeated defeats in parliament are discouraging and likely to fuel pessimism over her Brexit deal being squarely rejected next week. Market fears over the UK crashing out of the European Union with no deal in place should keep Pound bears in the game for the rest of this week.
Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD is certainly bearish on the weekly charts. Prices are trading below the 20 Simple Moving Average while the MACD has crossed to the downside. A solid breakdown below the 1.2700 should provide bears with enough encouragement to target 1.2590.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Where Gold concludes this trading week will primarily depend on the pending US jobs report released on Friday.
A strong US jobs report for November will be Dollar positive as expectations heighten over the Fed raising rates in 2019 – an outcome that is seen negatively impacting zero-yielding Gold. Alternatively, a disappointing report will dilute speculation over higher US interest rates ultimately pushing Gold prices higher. In regards to the technical picture, Gold prices are bullish on the daily charts. A decisive breakout and daily close above the $1,240 resistance level, may pave a path towards $1,248 and $1,260 respectively.
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234Finance Moves to Boost Economic Progress in South East
In a recent gathering, organized by 234Finance, key stakeholders and HNIs came together to discuss the theme “Fueling Progress in the South East.”
The conversation highlighted the rich heritage, entrepreneurial spirit, opportunities for growth and the potential of the South East to be economic powerhouse.
During the discussion, the Managing Partner of 234Finance, Ezinne Nwazulu unveiled plans for an upcoming event of significant impact: the 4-week intensive SME Bootcamp and Mentor Matchup Challenge South East edition designed to empower SMEs. The program aims to empower SMEs with the knowledge, tools, and capital for rapid expansion and global competitiveness.
This initiative is building on the success of previous Mentor Matchup Challenge events, which equipped SMEs with actionable strategies and one-on-one mentorship, resulting in winners of the pitching competition securing grant funding to scale their businesses by 4x-10x.
The SME Bootcamp will feature an array of activities, including physical and virtual training sessions, onsite industrial training, and a pitching competition.
Ezinne Nwazulu emphasized the rigorous selection process, where the top 100 applicants meeting the criteria will undergo intensive training at two training centres in Abia and Anambra. From there, the most promising 15 participants will have the opportunity to pitch their business for grant funding.
Dr Chima Anyaso, Chairman of Caades Group, expressed his commitment to the region’s development and encouraged entrepreneurs with innovative crafts to seize this opportunity.
Criteria for selection are uncompromising, emphasizing technical expertise in core sectors; Agribusiness, Manufacturing, Supply Chain & Logistics, Fashion & Textile, and Retail, with a particular focus on businesses operating within the South-East region for at least three years and significant growth potential of 4x-10x.
The Bootcamp is set to commence from May 14 to June 14 2024 with Southeast-based entrepreneurs encouraged to visit the 234finance bootcamp to apply.
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Dufil Prima Foods Brings Relief to Indigent Families in Abeokuta
Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie instant noodles, in partnership with the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society, extended its goodwill to the shores of Abeokuta, Ogun state, at a product distribution event on Tuesday 24 April, where cartons of Indomie noodles were distributed to the underprivileged, as part of its ongoing efforts to support families worst hit by the ongoing economic hardship.
The event which saw a thousand vulnerable families go home with a carton of Indomie each, individuals present were also provided with cooked noodles to help relieve their immediate hunger.
The outreach had in attendance members of the disabled community, orphans, widows, the elderly, pregnant women, and vulnerable families.
The outreach is in alignment with the brand’s goal to feed two million consumers across various cities and communities in Nigeria, by collaborating closely with recognized NGOs to ensure that only the most vulnerable persons in the various cities and communities are invited and given a carton of Indomie and a fresh bowl of the nourishing tasty noodles.
The event was graced with the presence of notable dignitaries including the representative of the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development in Ogun State, Mrs. Wonuola Kassim; the Ogun State Chapter Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Comrade Hammeed-Bello Aderinola; a representative of the Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Superintendent Adeoye Adejoke Asake; the Chairman of the Ogun State Police Community Relations Committee (PCRC), Venerable (Dr.) Samson Kunle Popoola, Chairman of the Peace Initiative Network, Dr. Femi Sodipo , and Trace PRO, CDR. Babatunde Akinbiyi, amongst others.
Mrs. Wonuola Kassim in her keynote address, commended the efforts of Dufil Prima Foods Ltd, and acknowledged that this was not the company’s first CSR initiative as she recalled that it had embarked on a similar venture in 2020.
“This program cannot be more timely than a time like this, when to feed becomes very difficult for most people. This is the kind of gesture which would linger for ages in the hearts of the beneficiaries. The objective of the palliative distribution is to alleviate the hardship faced by the citizens due to the recent removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government”, she said.
Speaking in the same vein, Popoola of the PCRC said: “We believe in PCRC that food security and eradication of hunger will go a long way in reducing the level of criminality in our society. What we have seen today is a conscious effort on the part of the organisers to see to the eradication of poverty, eradication of hunger and to support the food security initiative of the Government”.
Other dignitaries present also expressed their gratitude for Indomie and the organisers of the event, the Human Rights and Grassroots Development Society. They commended their efforts for taking the right steps to ensure that families across the country are catered for in these challenging times.
Indomie Instant Noodles remains steadfast in its quest to provide satisfaction and put smiles on the faces of families across Nigeria.
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Defending the foundations for connectivity
By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo
In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.
Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.
While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.
The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.
At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.
But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.
This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.
Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.
We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.
We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.
Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)
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