E-Financial
Will the Central Bank of Nigeria Cut Interest Rates in November?

By Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM,
Rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria will certainly complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut interest rates to stimulate growth.
The nation’s annual inflation edged up to 11.24% in September 2019, its highest level in three months after falling to a three-and-a-half-year low of 11.02% in August. Given how the CBN governor has already made it clear that inflation must hit single digits before a rate cut could be considered, it remains uncertain whether the central bank will cut interest rates before year end.
A rate cut could inject the Nigerian economy with a welcome boost, as it stimulates consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP. But However, cutting the MPR when the inflation rate is at 11.22 percent risks further overheating prices. Like other economies, Nigeria may be exposed to the impacts of a global slowdown but its economy is very different from the US’ which is currently experiencing anemic price inflation. This may be why the Central Bank of Nigeria decided to prioritize reducing inflation to single digits and said it is in no hurry to reduce its key rate.
In the absence of cutting interest rates, the CBN has raised the country’s loan to deposit ratio for banks to 65% from 60%. Making sure money is in circulation instead of being tied up in government bonds sounds like a logical way to keep the economy on the road to recovery. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to promote growth.
Trade hopes lift risk mood; Brexit drama continues
There is a mood of optimism and hope across financial markets on Tuesday morning thanks to upbeat comments from President Donald Trump regarding the progress of trade talks with China.
Given how the President said China has signaled that negotiations over the initial trade deal are moving in the right direction, expectations remain elevated over both sides signing an agreement at a meeting in Chile next week. This positive sentiment is supporting Asian stocks during early trading and is likely to trickle down to European markets later this morning. While the encouraging mood across financial markets will remain stimulated by trade optimism, risk aversion could still make an abrupt return should talks drag on or turn sour.
Pound volatility expected as Brexit drama continues
The past few days have been volatile for the British Pound due to ongoing uncertainty and constant drama revolving around Brexit.
Sterling seems to be catching its breath early this morning as MP’s prepare to vote on Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill later this afternoon. If the deal hits a brick wall, the ball then gets hurled back to Brussels as we await confirmation of the Government’s Brexit extension request. Should MPs back the Prime Ministers deal, a programme of motion will take place shortly after, followed by a debate on amendments of the bill on Wednesday. Regardless of what happens today, the British Pound is set to remain volatile.
With regards to the technical picture, GBPUSD has broken above the bearish channel on the weekly timeframe. A solid daily close above 1.30 should inspire a move towards 1.3160 in the medium term. Should 1.30 prove to be a stubborn resistance level, I see Sterling declining back towards the 1.2700 support.
Dollar Index poised for further declines?
There has not been much action in the Dollar Index (DXY) since the start of the week with prices trading around 97.76 as of writing.
The heavy selloff witnessed last week has placed bears in a position of power. The DXY is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading under the 200 Simple Moving Average. Sustained weakness below the 97.50 level should encourage a decline back towards 97.00 in the short to medium term.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is likely to remain on standby in the absence of a fresh directional catalyst.
The precious metal is waiting for the next big theme or market-moving event that will influence global sentiment and risk appetite. Until something fresh is brought into the picture, Gold is positioned to trade within a modest range in the short to medium term.
Looking at the technicals, all eyes will remain on the psychological $1500 level. Sustained weakness below this point should inspire a decline towards $1470. Alternatively, a solid breakout above $1500 will most likely open the doors towards $1515 and $1525, respectively.
E-Financial
CBN Proposes 30-Member Mediation Panel for Loan Disputes

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released an exposure draft proposing the establishment of a 30-member Mediation and Dispute Resolution Panel (MDRP) aimed at strengthening consumer protection and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.

Pic credit….aequitasjuris.com
According to a circular signed by Paul Oluikpe, acting director of the Development Finance Advisory Department of the CBN, the establishment of the MDRP, is in furtherance of efforts to strengthen the financial ecosystem, ensure compliance with extant legislation, and enhance the efficiency of financial intermediation.
The draft guidelines and modalities for the operation of the MDRP are in line with the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets (STMA) Act, 2017, which established a MDRP as the first recourse for mediation and settlement over any civil dispute which may arise between the creditor and the grantor in the course of implementing the Act.
The act also mandates the Governor of the Bank to issue guidelines that will set out the modalities and regulate the Panel’s functioning, among others. The circular further noted that the “MDRP is intended to provide a specialised, cost-effective platform for resolving disputes arising from creation, perfection and enforcement of security interests in movable assets.
“The key objective of the MDRP guidelines is to establish a clear and standardised procedure for managing STMA-related disputes, while ensuring transparency, fairness and efficiency to bolster confidence in the secured transactions in movable assets system.”
According to the draft guideline, the CBN will “appoint 30 persons from whom panels shall be constituted, with each panel comprising 3 members.
The members shall serve on a rotational basis for an initial term of four years.
“Upon satisfactory performance, determined through an evaluation by the CBN, members may be reappointed for an additional term of four years. The tenure of members shall not exceed two terms of four years each, which need not be consecutive.
“Members shall be professionals with a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience in any of law, banking, finance, mediation, arbitration, alternative dispute resolution, or financial regulation. Members shall be persons of proven integrity, professional competence and sound judgement.”
E-Financial
NDIC Seeks Court Nods to Liquidate 89 Failed Banks

Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) said that it has commenced the process of liquidating 89 closed Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs).

This followed their successful acquisition by new owners under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) resolution model executed by the Corporation.
The corporation disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday, signed by Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs.
It explained that the affected institutions were part of the 179 MFBs and four PMBs whose licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 22 and 23, 2023.
According to the corporation, under the P&A arrangement, 89 new eligible institutions were subsequently licensed by the CBN to assume the assets and liabilities of the defunct banks.
It noted that the new banks had since commenced operations under different names.
“To legally conclude the liquidation process, the NDIC, in its capacity as liquidator, will file applications at various divisions of the Federal High Court for orders of dissolution of the closed banks and its discharge as liquidator,” the statement said.
NDIC added that the move was in line with provisions of its enabling Act and other relevant laws guiding bank resolution in the country.
The corporation said the exercise would ensure proper closure of the defunct institutions while safeguarding financial system stability.
It reiterated its commitment to protecting depositors and sustaining public confidence in the banking sector.
The affected banks were located across several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Oyo, Kaduna, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.
E-Financial
IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Outlook, Warns of Rising Risks

Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2026 and strengthen slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2027, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is clouding the global outlook.

The projections, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the United States, show a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external risks, particularly from energy market disruptions triggered by the war.
The IMF had earlier projected stronger growth of about 4.4 per cent in early January before the latest global shock, reflecting the impact of domestic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.
While Nigeria’s growth outlook remains steady, the IMF warned that countries like Nigeria face growing vulnerability from higher global energy prices, inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions.
The war, which has disrupted oil supply routes and pushed up fuel costs, is already feeding into domestic inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
Recent data show petrol and diesel prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, straining households and businesses.
Although higher crude prices may support government revenues, the broader macroeconomic impact remains mixed, with inflation and exchange rate pressures posing downside risks.
The IMF also cut global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026, with only a modest recovery to 3.2 per cent in 2027 as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade and energy markets.
Emerging markets and developing economies, including Nigeria, are expected to grow at 3.9 per cent this year before recovering to 4.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the shock across regions.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average but still among the stronger performers.
South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, continues to lag with growth forecast at one per cent in 2026, rising modestly to 1.3 per cent in 2027.
Among major economies, the U.S. is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while China is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent and four per cent respectively.
India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5 per cent through 2027, while the Euro Area continues to struggle with weak growth, particularly in Germany and France.
The IMF warned that many developing economies, particularly energy importers, remain vulnerable to rising costs and external shocks.
The IMF urged central banks to prioritise price stability, warning against easing policy prematurely in response to supply shocks. It stressed the need for clear communication and strong institutional independence.
On fiscal policy, the Fund cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly and inefficient. It recommended a targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households, funded within existing budgets.
The IMF also warned against the use of trade restrictions to address external imbalances, noting that such measures tend to weaken output without resolving underlying issues. It called instead for coordinated global action to stabilise trade and restore energy supply chains.
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