E-Financial
Will the Central Bank of Nigeria Cut Interest Rates in November?
By Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM,
Rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria will certainly complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut interest rates to stimulate growth.
The nation’s annual inflation edged up to 11.24% in September 2019, its highest level in three months after falling to a three-and-a-half-year low of 11.02% in August. Given how the CBN governor has already made it clear that inflation must hit single digits before a rate cut could be considered, it remains uncertain whether the central bank will cut interest rates before year end.
A rate cut could inject the Nigerian economy with a welcome boost, as it stimulates consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP. But However, cutting the MPR when the inflation rate is at 11.22 percent risks further overheating prices. Like other economies, Nigeria may be exposed to the impacts of a global slowdown but its economy is very different from the US’ which is currently experiencing anemic price inflation. This may be why the Central Bank of Nigeria decided to prioritize reducing inflation to single digits and said it is in no hurry to reduce its key rate.
In the absence of cutting interest rates, the CBN has raised the country’s loan to deposit ratio for banks to 65% from 60%. Making sure money is in circulation instead of being tied up in government bonds sounds like a logical way to keep the economy on the road to recovery. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to promote growth.
Trade hopes lift risk mood; Brexit drama continues
There is a mood of optimism and hope across financial markets on Tuesday morning thanks to upbeat comments from President Donald Trump regarding the progress of trade talks with China.
Given how the President said China has signaled that negotiations over the initial trade deal are moving in the right direction, expectations remain elevated over both sides signing an agreement at a meeting in Chile next week. This positive sentiment is supporting Asian stocks during early trading and is likely to trickle down to European markets later this morning. While the encouraging mood across financial markets will remain stimulated by trade optimism, risk aversion could still make an abrupt return should talks drag on or turn sour.
Pound volatility expected as Brexit drama continues
The past few days have been volatile for the British Pound due to ongoing uncertainty and constant drama revolving around Brexit.
Sterling seems to be catching its breath early this morning as MP’s prepare to vote on Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill later this afternoon. If the deal hits a brick wall, the ball then gets hurled back to Brussels as we await confirmation of the Government’s Brexit extension request. Should MPs back the Prime Ministers deal, a programme of motion will take place shortly after, followed by a debate on amendments of the bill on Wednesday. Regardless of what happens today, the British Pound is set to remain volatile.
With regards to the technical picture, GBPUSD has broken above the bearish channel on the weekly timeframe. A solid daily close above 1.30 should inspire a move towards 1.3160 in the medium term. Should 1.30 prove to be a stubborn resistance level, I see Sterling declining back towards the 1.2700 support.
Dollar Index poised for further declines?
There has not been much action in the Dollar Index (DXY) since the start of the week with prices trading around 97.76 as of writing.
The heavy selloff witnessed last week has placed bears in a position of power. The DXY is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading under the 200 Simple Moving Average. Sustained weakness below the 97.50 level should encourage a decline back towards 97.00 in the short to medium term.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold is likely to remain on standby in the absence of a fresh directional catalyst.
The precious metal is waiting for the next big theme or market-moving event that will influence global sentiment and risk appetite. Until something fresh is brought into the picture, Gold is positioned to trade within a modest range in the short to medium term.
Looking at the technicals, all eyes will remain on the psychological $1500 level. Sustained weakness below this point should inspire a decline towards $1470. Alternatively, a solid breakout above $1500 will most likely open the doors towards $1515 and $1525, respectively.
Debt Management Office (DMO) said the federal government spent N3.14 trillion on servicing its domestic debt in the first quarter of 2026.
The office disclosed the data in its latest domestic debt service report for Q1 2026.
The figure comprises N2.97 trillion in interest payments and N169.68 billion in principal repayments.
The agency said in January, the government spent N741.82 billion on domestic debt service, while the figure rose to N967.67 billion in February.
Debt service increased further to N1.43 trillion in March, bringing the total for the quarter to N3.14 trillion.
The March figure was 47.7 percent higher than the N967.67 billion recorded in February and 92.7 percent above the N741.82 billion spent in January.
Also, the debt office said interest payments accounted for about 94.6 percent of total domestic debt service during the quarter.
The DMO said treasury bills accounted for the largest share of interest payments at N1 trillion, while interest on federal government bonds stood at N1.96 trillion.
The agency said the government also paid N4.24 billion in interest on FGN savings bonds during the period.
The DMO said the principal component of the debt service comprised N169.68 billion in repayments on local-denominated promissory notes.
Overall, the government’s domestic debt service rose sharply through the quarter, with March accounting for almost half of the N3.14 trillion spent between January and March.
Nigeria’s public debt increased by 0.01 percent to N159.35 trillion in the Q1 of 2026.
Interswitch Group, an integrated digital payments and commerce company, together with global banking software provider, Temenos have reassured the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of their commitment to advancing the modernisation of Nigeria’s financial services sector.
Interswitch and Temenos had earlier in June announced a strategic partnership across Africa which would see Interswitch leverage Temenos solutions – across core banking, digital banking, payments, wealth management and financial crime mitigation – to provide cloud-hosted and on-premises managed services to banks and financial institutions across Africa.
This will enable institutions to progressively transform their banking platform and evolve to more customer-centric business models. The service will initially support key African markets including Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and others.
The recent regulatory visit to CBN headquarters in Abuja, was led by the Founder and Group Chief Executive Officer of Interswitch, Mitchell Elegbe, and Managing Director for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) at Temenos, Santhosh Rao, as part of the ongoing efforts by both organisations to deepen collaboration with Central Banks across the African region on the future of digital banking infrastructure across Nigeria and key African markets.
Discussions centred on the strategic partnership between Interswitch and Temenos, and how it will enable Nigerian financial institutions to progressively modernise their core banking platforms and transition to more customer-centric business models.
The two organisations also explored opportunities to work with the CBN in charting new frontiers in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) innovation, leveraging resilient financial networks and decentralised application platforms to support the issuance and management of CBDCs.
Commenting on the visit, Elegbesaid: “Our partnership as Interswitch with Temenos and our continued engagement with the Central Bank of Nigeria reflect a shared commitment to building banking infrastructure that is resilient, inclusive, and ready for the next phase of Africa’s financial evolution.
We are proud to be at the table as these conversations shape the future of digital banking technology and innovation across key Africa markets…”
The Bank of Industry, through BOI Financing SPV Plc, has opened subscriptions for its inaugural Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond worth up to N250bn under its $1bn multi-currency instruments programme, seeking to raise long-term capital to finance businesses across Nigeria’s priority sectors.
The offer, which opened on 5 August and closes on 11 August, is being arranged by Chapel Hill Denham as the lead issuing house. The five-year bond is priced within a yield range of 17.35 per cent to 17.50 per cent and will be listed on the FMDQ Securities Exchange.
According to the offer document, proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to finance eligible businesses and projects across sectors, including agriculture and food processing, healthcare, engineering and technology, renewable energy, petrochemicals, oil and gas, creative industries and solid minerals, in line with BOI’s development finance mandate.
The lender said the financing is expected to improve access to medium and long-term funding for Nigerian enterprises, expand productive capacity, create and preserve jobs, deepen local value addition, support import substitution, boost exports and strengthen domestic value chains.
BOI, Nigeria’s foremost development finance institution, said it has provided funding to more than one million businesses across the country and disbursed over N1.27tn between 2023 and 2025. The institution operates across 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory and is jointly owned by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The bank also highlighted its financial performance, reporting a 36 per cent compound annual growth rate in gross earnings between 2021 and 2025.
Interest income rose 64 per cent to N884bn in 2025 from N538bn in the previous year, while its capital adequacy ratio stood at 39 per cent, nearly four times the regulatory minimum of 10 per cent. Its non-performing loan ratio was 1.7 per cent, below the CBN’s prudential limit of five per cent.
The bond has been assigned AAA ratings by Agusto & Co. and Intelligence Africa, reflecting the issuer’s strong capitalization, profitability, liquidity and ownership structure.
The issuance is open to institutional and qualified investors with a minimum subscription of N5m and additional investments in multiples of N1m. Interest will be paid semi-annually at a fixed rate, while principal repayment will begin in the third year through equal semi-annual amortised instalments until maturity in 2031.
The bond is also exempt from tax, making it an attractive investment option for investors seeking stable returns amid expectations of declining interest rates.
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