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FXTM Analysis: Time to Focus On OPEC Now That France is ‘Out of Sight’

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Investors have arrived in full force to exploit the opportunity to sell the Euro at its highest level since November 2016, with the EURUSD now appearing at risk to dropping back below 1.09 after briefly climbing above 1.10 when the markets opened for the week following confirmation of Macron becoming the new President of France.

While the lifeline of the Euro relief rally appears to be short-lived, I would go as far as to say that the Euro is heavily oversold at these levels and this is not linked to the headlines that Europe has defeated populism.

Although political headlines are still overshadowing economic news when it comes to the global market theme of 2017, there is an improved economic sentiment around Europe that has been building recently as a result of significantly improved data.

Perhaps the reason for the heavy selling pressure on the Euro at present is due to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave monetary policy accommodative, despite the stronger data being seen around Europe.

Time to shift focus to upcoming OPEC meeting?
Now that the French election is out of the way, investors should highlight May 25 in their calendar, because this is when the next OPEC meeting is scheduled in Vienna. Traders should expect and be prepared for shifts in volatility in both directions when it comes to the price of Oil, as the markets speculate over what the outcome of the meeting could possibly be.

I expect for producing nations to publicly talk up the prospects of an extension to the current production cut agreement made late in 2016, but this doesn’t impact the underlying factor that the real fight OPEC has to deal with is a battle with US Shale production.

There has been an obvious correlation that inventories from Shale production in the US have improved in recent months, which is surely going to be weighing heavily in the minds of all the Oil ministers from both OPEC and non-members when they sit at the table in a couple of weeks.

As always investors should prepare for the unexpected when it comes to OPEC meetings with recent history in mind that there have been unexpected surprises from past meetings. With that in mind there are at least two possible risk scenarios that investors should consider in the lead up to the May 25 event:

While the organisation is currently committed to reducing output, that agreement expires next month. With the markets believing that the current collaboration will need to be extended, there is a risk that the markets will be caught off-guard with a decision to delay it, in order to prevent further US Shale production from reaching the landscape.

Should OPEC and Non-OPEC agree to an increase in production for the second half of the year, a volume war could be on the cards with this providing sellers with heavy encouragement to begin pricing in the resumption of heavy selling momentum and a possible return to the historic lows for Oil.

The other risk scenario that investors would be mindful to factor into consideration is that there is an agreement to throw in the towel and submit to extending not only the duration of the current agreement, but also cutting further output.

Although this would be seen as OPEC declaring Shale victorious in the production war and would also further weaken the credibility of oil producers who, until just a few years ago, were in full control of global oil production, it would most probably achieve a stronger rebound in the price of Oil.

Basically what this could come down to is whether OPEC and Non-OPEC members are willing to lose face by accepting defeat to Shale in return for a further boost in revenue, or are they committed to prolonging their participation in this ongoing production war with Shale?

GBPUSD not ready to touch 1.30 yet?
The Pound is trading in a very narrow range against the Dollar at the beginning of the week as the spotlight shines on the French election result, and it looks like the British Pound is shying away from touching 1.30 for the first time since September 2016.

While the Pound benefitted from some impressive PMI results last week, it is possible that investors will shift their attention to the Bank of England (BoE) and the likelihood of inflation risks being highlighted when the latest inflation report is delivered this Thursday.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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