General News
Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

By Austin Okere
“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.
The article is in two parts hereunder:
The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.
The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.
During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.
Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.
The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.
Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.
It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.
I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.
It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.
We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.
An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.
Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing. The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.
Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.
The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.
The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?
Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship
General News
PalmPay User Shares Experience on Fintech Apps to Trust in Nigeria

For many Nigerians, fintech apps are judged by one simple question: Can I trust the platform? For Happiness, a young Nigerian entrepreneur, the answer manifested in the most defining moments of her life.

Trust Built Through Everyday Use
In 2025, Happiness relied on PalmPay to run her business, from receiving customer payments, paying vendors, and managing daily transactions. During PalmPay’s Hustle Grant Campaign, she joined thousands of small business owners hoping to win the N500,000 funding.
While she didn’t make the shortlist, the campaign gave her business something just as valuable: visibility. New customers discovered her brand, enquiries increased, and sales followed.
PalmPay didn’t just host a campaign; it created an ecosystem where small businesses could be seen and supported.
Just days later, Happiness’ life changed. On August 30, 2025, she lost her father. With this loss came challenges, especially payments. They tried transferring money through regular banks but were met with declined transactions. Happiness suggested using her PalmPay account and it was successful.
In a moment defined by loss and urgency, PalmPay cut through the chaos, proving that reliability isn’t a feature, it’s a lifeline. Happiness’ relationship with PalmPay didn’t stop at transactions. Through other management tools on the app, she learned to build discipline around her finances.
More Than an App, a Financial Partner
Beyond transactions, PalmPay’s tools helped Happiness build better money habits and financial discipline. Today, the brand continues to reward reliability through initiatives like its ongoing Premier Cool campaign, reinforcing a simple message: consistency should come with value.
The idea is simple: Purchase a bar of soap and stand a chance to get ₦10,000cash and other cash benefits.
It’s PalmPay’s way of saying that smart money habits deserve real value in return.
Why PalmPay Earns Trust
Life doesn’t give warnings before it tests you. When it does, you need a platform that doesn’t just usually work but always works.
For many users, PalmPay proves to be more than a payment app. It is a trusted partner powering ambitions, supporting users through defining life moments, while helping them bank smartly.
When it mattered most, PalmPay worked. To watch the full testimonial visit: @palmpayapp_ng
General News
Nigerians Target Self-Improvement, Business Startups in 2026 Google Data

Google Search data from the first two weeks of 2026 reveals Nigerians are prioritising ambition, self-growth, and entrepreneurial ventures as they embrace the new year with renewed drive for personal and professional excellence.

The data shows a 40 per cent spike in searches related to self-improvement and “becoming better”, reflecting a nationwide shift from mere resolutions to actionable plans across boardrooms, classrooms, and homes. Entrepreneurship leads the charge, with “how to start a business” topping “how to start” queries after an 80 per cent surge, alongside rising interest in blogging, podcasting, and YouTube channels to foster economic opportunities.
Personal development dominates, as searches for “how to be a better person” rose 20 per cent, extending to relationships with queries on becoming better lovers, partners, husbands, wives, and listeners. Health resolutions gain traction, with 40 per cent increases in “how to eat healthy”, “healthy diet”, and “how to meditate” underscoring commitments to physical vitality and mental wellness.
Skill mastery captivates diverse audiences, from “how to improve English” and communication skills to enhancing memory, credit scores, and even handwriting, while leisure pursuits spike in “how to get better at” chess, singing, running, Fortnite, and soccer. Top searches include “how to improve communication skills”, “how to be a better listener”, and entrepreneurial starters like “how to start a podcast”, painting a portrait of a nation honing edges for success.
Taiwo Kola-Ogunlade, Communications and Public Affairs Manager for West Africa at Google, described the trends as a “powerful reflection of Nigeria’s collective ambition”, affirming the company’s dedication to tools like Search and Gemini for guiding Nigerians toward prosperity
General News
How Inside Jobs and Policy Shocks Trigger Nigeria’s Rising Loan Crisis

By Blaise Udunze
The latest in the Nigerian banking sector, as banks grapple with the recapitalization compliance deadline, is confronted with a familiar yet unsettling problem that stems from rising loan defaults amid expanding credit. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) latest macroeconomic outlook of 2025 showed that the banking industry’s Non-Performing Loans ratio climbed to an estimated 7 percent, pushing the sector above the prudential ceiling of 5 percent.

This deterioration has occurred even as banks report improved credit availability and strong loan demand across households and corporates. At first glance of the development, the narrative seems to defy logic in a real sense. However, below this lies a deeper story of macroeconomic strain, policy-induced shocks, and, most worryingly, persistent corporate governance abuses that continue to erode asset quality from within.
To be clear, Nigeria’s current wave of loan defaults cannot be blamed on reckless borrowers alone. The operating environment has become unusually hostile. Inflation, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), recently suggests that headline inflation is cooling and growth indicators show tentative improvement; regrettably, more Nigerians are slipping below the poverty line, eroding household purchasing power and raising operating costs for businesses.
Especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises, though, the economic growth appears positive, but has been uneven and insufficient to offset cost pressures in this space. This has heralded weak consumer demand that has squeezed revenues across retail, manufacturing and services, causing shrinking cash flows and also loan obligations remain fixed or, in many cases, rise. In such conditions, repayment stress is inevitable.
Tight monetary policy has compounded the problem. The CBN’s aggressive rate hikes, aimed at restoring price and exchange-rate stability, have significantly raised lending rates. Variable-rate loans have become more expensive mid-tenure, and businesses that borrowed under lower-rate assumptions now face repayment shocks. Even otherwise viable firms have found themselves pushed into distress as interest expenses consume a growing share of income. Going by the official survey for the last quarter of 2025, it shows that financial pressure on borrowers has intensified as more borrowers are failing to repay loans across all major categories for both secured loans, unsecured loans and corporate loans.
Exchange-rate volatility has delivered another blow. The naira’s depreciation and FX reforms have sharply increased the burden on borrowers with dollar-denominated loans but naira income. Import-dependent businesses have seen costs surge, while FX scarcity continues to disrupt production and trade cycles. For many firms, the problem is not poor management but currency mismatch. Loans that were sustainable under a more stable exchange regime have become unserviceable almost overnight.
Layered onto these macro pressures is Nigeria’s weak business environment, which has further worsened the situation, alongside chronic power shortages forcing firms to rely on costly alternatives, logistics challenges and insecurity disrupting supply chains, and regulatory uncertainty complicates planning. More on the burner that has continued to heighten the challenges is the multiple taxation and compliance burdens, further compressing margins. In survival mode, businesses naturally prioritise payrolls, energy, and raw materials over debt service. Defaults, in this context, are often a symptom rather than the disease.
Yet while these systemic pressures explain much of the stress, they do not tell the whole story. A critical and often underemphasised driver of rising loan defaults lies within the banks themselves, most especially corporate governance abuse, which emanates particularly from insider-related lending. This is the uncomfortable truth that Nigeria’s banking sector has struggled to confront decisively.
Corporate governance, at its core, is about discipline, accountability, and oversight. In the banking context, it determines how credit decisions are made, how risks are assessed, and how early warning signs are addressed. Where governance is weak, loan quality inevitably suffers. Nigeria’s history offers painful lessons, especially the banking failures of the 1990s to the post-2009 crisis clean-up, insider lending and boardroom abuses have repeatedly emerged as central culprits.
Recent evidence suggests that the problem has not disappeared. Industry estimates indicate that a significant portion of bad loans remains linked to insider and related-party exposures. Former NDIC officials have disclosed that, historically, directors and insiders accounted for as much as 40 per cent of bad loans in deposit money banks, with a handful of institutions holding the majority of insider-related NPLs. It would be said that governance frameworks have improved since then, but enforcement gaps still persist.
Insider abuse manifests in several ways. Loans are extended to directors, executives, or connected parties with inadequate due diligence. Credit decisions are influenced by relationships rather than repayment capacity, and this has been one of the critical problems as collateral is overvalued, covenants are weak, and stress testing is often superficial. When early signs of distress emerge, enforcement is delayed, restructuring is repeated without fundamental improvement, and recoveries are treated with undue caution to avoid internal embarrassment or exposure.
The result is predictable. These loans default faster and are harder to recover. Worse still, they distort bank balance sheets by crowding out credit to productive sectors. When insiders default, the signal to the wider market is corrosive. Here, credit discipline is optional, and accountability is selective, and it further fuels moral hazard, encouraging strategic defaults even among borrowers who could otherwise repay.
Governance failures also weaken loan recovery processes. Poorly empowered risk and audit committees miss warning signs or fail to act decisively because the system has been built to fail. Legal remedies are pursued slowly, if at all. In an environment where judicial delays already undermine contract enforcement, such reluctance turns manageable problem loans into fully impaired assets. Over time, NPLs accumulate not because recovery is impossible, but because it is poorly pursued.
Compounding these internal weaknesses are government policy shifts and fiscal stress, which have become major external shock absorbers for bank balance sheets. Policy inconsistency has made cash flow planning increasingly difficult for borrowers. For instance, the sudden tax changes or aggressive enforcement drives will definitely alter cost structures overnight. Delays in government payments to contractors starve businesses of liquidity, and this will surely push otherwise solvent firms into default. In theory, although removing fuel subsidies, while economically justified, have often occurred without adequate transition buffers, transmitting immediate cost shocks across energy, transport, and consumer goods sectors.
The banking sector, heavily exposed to government-linked projects and regulated industries, absorbs these shocks directly. Loans tied to this sector showed that the banks are hugely exposed to oil and gas, power, and infrastructure; they are particularly vulnerable when fiscal pressures delay receivables or alter contract economics. For instance, a total of 9 banks’ exposure to the Oil & gas sector increased to N15. 6 trillion in 2024, representing about 94.4per cent increase from N10. 17 trillion reported in 2023 financial year. It is therefore no coincidence that NPL concentrations remain high in these sectors. In effect, fiscal stress is being intermediated through bank balance sheets.
When the CBN ended the special leniency measures known as forbearance in 2025, the real extent of loan stress in the banking industry became much clearer. For a longer time, pandemic-era reliefs allowed banks to renegotiate stressed loans without immediately classifying them as non-performing. While this helped preserve surface stability, it also masked underlying vulnerabilities. With the end of forbearance, many restructured facilities have crystallised as bad loans, pushing the industry NPL ratio above the prudential ceiling. This does not mean risk suddenly increased; it means it is now being recognised.
To the CBN’s credit, transparency has improved as the industry witnessed stricter classification rules and reduced forbearance have forced banks to confront economic truth rather than regulatory convenience. And, despite the challenges, the financial system appears to be generally sound because banks have enough cash to meet obligations and sufficient capital buffers that still exceed regulatory floors, while these buffers are under pressure. Though the ongoing recapitalisation efforts are expected to provide additional buffers.
However, stability should not be confused with health. Rising NPLs, even in a liquid system, carry real consequences. Banks must set aside provisions, eroding profitability and capital. Credit supply tightens as lenders grow cautious, starving the real economy of funding. One known fact is that the moment governance and transparency concerns grow, investors, particularly foreign ones, become less willing to commit capital and this loss of confidence eventually slows down overall economic growth.
The policy response, therefore, must go beyond macroeconomic management. While stabilising inflation and the exchange rate is essential, it is not sufficient. Governance reform within banks must be treated as a systemic priority, not a compliance exercise. Insider lending rules must be enforced rigorously, with real consequences for violations. Boards must be strengthened, not merely in composition but in independence and courage. Risk and audit committees must be empowered to challenge management and act early.
Equally important is addressing the fiscal-banking nexus. The government must recognise that policy volatility and payment delays are not costless. They translate directly into higher credit risk and weaker financial intermediation. A more predictable policy environment, timely settlement of obligations, and credible transition frameworks for major reforms would significantly reduce default risk without a single naira of direct intervention.
The Global Standing Instruction framework, which the CBN continues to promote, can help improve retail and MSME recoveries. But frameworks cannot substitute for culture. Credit discipline begins at the top. When banks lend to themselves without consequence, the entire system pays the price.
Nigeria’s rising loan defaults are not merely an economic statistic; they are a governance signal. They reflect a system under stress, yes, but also one still wrestling with old habits. If recapitalisation is to be meaningful, it must be accompanied by recapitalisation of trust, through transparency, accountability, and consistent policy. Otherwise, the cycle will repeat the same strong balance sheets on paper, weak loans underneath, and another reckoning deferred, but not avoided.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
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