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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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By Austin Okere

“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.

The article is in two parts hereunder:

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship


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Sterling One Foundation Partners UNIDO, Others to Launch ESG Series

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The Sterling One Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to sustainable development and empowering professionals to drive social impact across Africa, has partnered with Price Waterhouse Coopers Nigeria, UNIDO-Investment Technology Promotion Office, Nigeria, Lagos Business School Sustainability Center, Sterling Bank, NGX Group, the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry to unveil  the first edition of its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Series.

The partnership aims to support professionals in understanding, implementing, and reporting sustainability progress, in alignment with global standards.

According to a signed statement by the Foundation, the ESG Series was birthed following a workshop held at the 2023 edition of the Africa Social Impact Summit (ASIS) where it was discovered that there was a significant knowledge gap on the subject within the African development ecosystem as well as the private sector.

They commended all the excellent partners who have made the series possible noting that their commitment will strengthen professionals’ competencies in integrating ESG principles into organizational frameworks, and drive positive change while advancing the adoption of ESG principles and increased investment into the economy from local and global investors.

Over the years, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations have evolved from optional to essential for organizations, making the significance of incorporating ESG principles into business plans to enhance sustainability and corporate responsibility, for organizations an increased priority. Statistics indicate that ESG-focused institutional investments are projected to reach $33.9 trillion by 2026.

Through this series, the Foundation said it aims to demystify ESG concepts among the private, public, and development sectors in Nigeria and Africa while highlighting their tangible business benefits, to equip professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary for successful ESG integration in their organizations.

The one-day virtual event gives insight through in-depth sessions featuring thought leaders from private sector impact makers, development partners, international non-governmental organizations, and government agencies.


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Uche Ikejimba Secures Sixth Consecutive AMVCA Nomination With Best Unscripted M-Net Original Nod

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Uche Ikejimba, Award-winning producer, has secured her sixth consecutive Africa Magic Viewers Choice Award nod. The organizers made the nomination announcements on Sunday, March 24, 2024, across all Africa Magic channels. It saw Ikejimba clinch a nom in the ‘Best Unscripted M-Net Original’ category for What Will People Say.

In 2022, Ikejimba received two nominations for ‘Best Africa Magic Original Drama Series’ for Unmarried and Dilemma. She secured two other nominations in 2023 in ‘Best Unscripted Original’ for Come Play Naija and ‘Best Original Drama Series’ category for Unmarried.

Speaking about her latest nomination, Ikejimba said, “I’m very humbled and beyond grateful to be receiving my sixth consecutive AMVCA nomination. Anyone who knows me will acknowledge that I often put my blood, sweat and tears into the shows I produce. After Truth won its nomination in 2020, I’ve been holding on patiently for a second win and I hope this is the year. So, here’s my hearty congratulations to my fellow nominees and a huge thank you to the AMVCAs organisers for honoring me.”

Ikejimba is one of Africa’s most-sought after serial producers, and has earned herself the title, ‘Reality TV Series Savant’, with work on 100% Naija, Vodafone Icons, Naija Sings, Calabar Festival Diaries, Big Brother Reunion, Shoot Your Shot, What Will People Say, Come Play Naija, and the more recently airing Husband Material and Overall Best.

She came into the world of Television production as an associate producer on Moments with Mo, the first and only syndicated daily talk show in Africa at the time. However, she has also proven that her talents go beyond producing reality shows or unscripted serials, and she can run with the best in producing original drama series.

In 2016, she landed her first commissioned project with Africa Magic titled Hustle. The series about a young man’s first time in Lagos became an instant hit and ran for three seasons, with 360 episodes. She created, wrote and produced Blink’s original 26-episode drama series titled Truth. The show won an AMVCA for ‘Best TV Series’ in 2020. That same year, she produced and wrote the hit series, Unmarried. The show ran for four seasons and ended on a high.

Off the success of these drama series, she produced Africa Magic’s Dilemma, a 260-episode telenovela. She produced Shallow and the recent Africa Magic fanfavourite original, Manfriend. The show follows the women of the King family and their dysfunctional relationship with the men in their lives. She also produced Showmax’s first original law limited series, AGU in 2023. Her first feature length film, Phantom is a co-production and is also nominated for several awards such as the Toronto International Nollywood Film Festival (TINFF).

Uche Ikejimba has beaten many odds to become a producer and remained steadfast in her commitment to producing the best shows Africa has ever seen. As the continent prepares for the milestone 10th AMVCA, the Reality TV Series Savant and producer extraordinaire is content to celebrate her sixth consecutive nomination. Find out if she clinches her second AMVCA win when the awards air live across all Africa Magic channels on May 11, 2024.


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Banks Close 2m Accounts over BVN, NIN, Others

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Commercial banks in Nigeria closed 2.021 million bank accounts in the first quarter of 2024, Q1’24, to clean their books of questionable accounts and comply with regulatory orders on the linkage of bank accounts to the National Identity Number (NIN).

Banks Close 2m Accounts over BVN, NIN, Others

This is contained in a report by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), which also indicated that the number of inactive bank accounts grew month-on-month, MoM, by four million or 2.0 per cent to 19.7 million in March 2024 from 19.3 million in the previous month, February.

A bank account is classified inactive when it records zero transactions including deposits, withdrawals, transfers or point-of-sale transactions for six months.

However, details of the “Industry Bank Account Database”, a monthly data reported by banks, and compiled by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System, NIBSS, also indicated that the number of active bank accounts grew by 6.62 million or 3.0 per cent to 219.64 million from 213.02 million in February.

Recall that in December 2023, the CBN issued a directive to all commercial banks in the country to restrict tier-1 accounts without proper Biometric Verification Number (BVN), and National Identity Number, NIN, that are not linked by Thursday, March 1st, 2024.

According to NIBSS data on BVN enrollment count, 61.6 million Nigerians have BVN as of April 2024.

 

Credit: Vanguard

 

 


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