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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.

The article is in two parts hereunder:

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship


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IMF Urges FG to Introduce Fuel, Telecom Taxes

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended introducing taxes on fuel products and telecommunications services in Nigeria.

IMF Urges FG to Introduce Fuel, Telecom Taxes

According to the IMF, this is part of broader measures to increase government revenue and create fiscal space for development spending and social interventions.

The international financial organization argued that stronger revenue mobilisation had become increasingly important as Nigeria’s fiscal position remained under pressure despite recent reforms.

This comes as Nigerians are protesting against worsening standard of living made worse by widespread insurgency.

The recommendation was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, where the Fund argued that additional tax measures would be needed over the medium term despite the recent overhaul of the country’s tax system.

“Further tax policy changes will likely be needed—such as increasing the VAT rate, extending VAT to fuel products, rationalising tax expenditures in particular VAT exemptions on extractive industries and some customs duties, and introducing telecom excises—to complement administrative gains,” the IMF said.

The institution, however, cautioned that the timing of any new taxes must take into account Nigeria’s rising poverty levels and worsening food insecurity.

“The timing of reforms must consider the poverty and food insecurity situation and ensure that the cash transfer system is in place and funded,” the Fund added.

A previous attempt by the Federal Government to impose a five per cent excise duty on telecom services met strong resistance from operators, subscribers and consumer advocacy groups before it was suspended and eventually scrapped.

Telecommunications firms had maintained that the industry was already weighed down by multiple taxes, rising energy costs, foreign exchange challenges and infrastructure constraints.

They warned that any additional levy would likely be transferred to consumers through higher call and data tariffs.

Similarly, proposals to tax fuel products have faced opposition from labour unions and private sector organisations amid concerns over the rising cost of living following the removal of petrol subsidies and increases in transport and food prices.

The IMF’s latest recommendation comes as the Fund projects that Nigeria will require stronger revenue mobilisation efforts to sustain planned increases in public spending and provide support for vulnerable households.

According to the report, revenue-enhancing tax policies could generate additional revenue equivalent to 3.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product within three years of implementation.

The Fund identified a two-percentage-point increase in the Value Added Tax rate as the largest contributor, with a projected revenue gain of 0.8 per cent of GDP.

The report also projected that removing pioneer status incentives and revising free zone regulations would generate an additional 0.7 per cent of GDP.

Reforms to capital gains taxation and adjustments to personal income tax bands, allowances and rates were each estimated to contribute 0.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF further estimated that a top-up tax on multinationals and large firms could raise 0.5 per cent of GDP, while rationalising investment allowances would contribute another 0.4 per cent.

Notably, the category labelled “others”, which includes telecom excise duties and measures such as a carbon tax on fuel, was projected to generate an additional 0.4 per cent of GDP in revenue.

Beyond new tax measures, the Fund said Nigeria could achieve even greater gains through improved tax administration.

It projected that administrative reforms would generate an additional 3.1 per cent of GDP through better compliance, stronger enforcement and efforts to reduce informality in the economy.

According to the report, measures such as fiscalisation, electronic invoicing and cross-validation of tax deductions could generate 1.5 per cent of GDP, while expanded tax identification registration and consolidation of taxpayer databases could contribute a further 1.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF acknowledged that some of Nigeria’s recently enacted tax reforms would reduce government revenue in the short term because they were designed to support households and small businesses.

It estimated that revenue-reducing measures would lower revenues by 2.4 per cent of GDP.

Expanded VAT input credits, additional zero-rated items and broader exemptions on basic consumption goods were projected to account for 1.7 percentage points of the decline.

Lower corporate income tax obligations for smaller firms would reduce revenues by 0.4 per cent of GDP, while lower personal income tax rates and expanded exemptions for low-income earners would account for another 0.3 percentage-point reduction.

Overall, the IMF projected that the combined impact of revenue-enhancing measures, administrative reforms and revenue-reducing policies would result in a net increase in government revenue equivalent to 4.6 per cent of GDP over the medium term.Nigerian investment opportunities


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₦5m up for Grabs as 10 Startups Clash at the Gathering on 100 Pitchathon Aba

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MTN Nigeria, through The Gathering on 100, has officially unveiled the next chapter of its youth cultural and creative movement in Aba, the home of entrepreneurship and innovation in Eastern Nigeria.

₦5 Million up for Grabs as 10 Startups Clash at the Gathering on 100 Pitchathon Aba

The initiative transformed the Prime Time Event Centre in Osisioma into a vibrant hub of innovation, culture, lifestyle, and entertainment.

As the second major activation of MTN’s ‘Live It 100’ campaign, this event underscores a bold commitment to encouraging young Nigerians to live life to the fullest of their potential, whether in business, tech, culture, or entertainment.

Central to this immersive experience is the highly anticipated Pitchathon, where 10 standout startups are vying for a total prize pool of ₦5 million.

The participating startups represent a cross-section of Aba’s burgeoning innovation ecosystem, tackling challenges ranging from logistics to artisanal tech.

Among them are Trashverse Recycling Technology Limited, a climate-first recycling solution founded by Charles Ikechukwu; SkillsCircle by Together, an ed-tech platform championed by Ijeoma Irene to empower young professionals in Nigeria; and Poptreaties, a healthy snack alternative founded by Ifeanyichukwu Dominion to curb junk food consumption.

These founders and their peers are showcasing solutions that blend local ingenuity with scalable technological frameworks, highlighting the immense potential of the region’s entrepreneurial spirit.

The pitchathon is judged by three esteemed figures in the African innovation ecosystem: Chiemela Anosike (Founder, Solaris GreenTech Hub), Dr. Chime Chimezie-Uche (Founder, Abia Startup Limited), and Justina Nwokedi (Digital Transformation Specialist).

This competition is designed to spotlight and empower early-stage founders in the city, providing them with a platform to validate their business ideas before investors, consumers, and industry stakeholders.

The prize structure offers ₦2.5 million to the winning startup, ₦1.5 million for the first runner-up, and ₦1 million for the third-place winner.

This Aba edition builds on the success of the Lagos edition, which took place from April 22 to 26 at the National Stadium, Surulere. There, eight startups received a collective ₦45 million in seed funding for solutions ranging from fintech to creative technology.

By bringing this platform to Aba, a city renowned for its industrial and entrepreneurial spirit, organizers aim to deepen access to opportunity and support the next generation of business leaders.

For these 10 startups, the Pitchathon is a vital opportunity to gain visibility, engage with potential partners, and accelerate their growth within a high-density environment of innovation.


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CBN Moves to Stop Banks From Using Customers’ Money for Fintech Subsidiaries

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has proposed new guidelines aimed at separating the operations of banks and other closely linked financial entities, including financial technology (fintech) companies, to strengthen consumer protection and safeguard financial stability.

CBN Moves to Stop Banks From Using Customers’ Money for Fintech Subsidiaries

CBN

The proposal is contained in a circular dated June 10 and titled, “Exposure of the Draft Guidelines on Ring-Fencing Operations of Closely Linked Entities in the Nigerian Financial System.”

According to the apex bank, the proposed framework is designed to establish clear operational and functional boundaries among related entities while addressing regulatory arbitrage arising from the commingling of activities across different licence categories.

The CBN said the guidelines would cover governance, intra-group transactions, segregation of customer funds and data, operational independence, recovery and resolution planning, as well as consolidated supervision.

“The Guidelines is intended to strengthen consumer protection, enhance transparency and accountability, mitigate contagion risks among closely linked entities, and preserve financial stability while supporting innovation and fair competition within the financial services sector,” the bank stated.

The apex bank explained that a closely linked entity refers to any organisation that directly or indirectly controls, is controlled by, or is under common control with another entity through ownership, voting rights, common directors or senior management, shared systems or branding, or contractual dependence.

Under the proposed framework, such entities would be required to operate independently, maintain separate governance and risk management structures, and individually meet capital adequacy and liquidity requirements regardless of group-level resources.

The CBN also proposed stricter controls on transactions between related entities.

It stated that no closely linked entity would be permitted to extend loans to or guarantee the obligations of another related entity without prior written approval from the regulator.

According to the draft, all intra-group exposures must be conducted on an arm’s-length basis and reported to the CBN on a quarterly basis.

The proposed guidelines further seek to strengthen consumer rights by requiring financial institutions to obtain customers’ express consent before onboarding them onto products or services offered by related entities.

The regulator said institutions would also be required to clearly disclose such arrangements in simple language and provide customers with alternative options where available.

To protect depositors and consumers, the CBN proposed that customer funds must not be used for intra-group lending, proprietary trading, servicing group debts or covering the operational expenses of affiliated companies.

The draft also includes provisions for enhanced data protection, requiring customer information to be stored independently from the systems of related entities to prevent unauthorised access or commingling.

In addition, promoters of closely linked entities would be required to establish non-operating holding companies to oversee their businesses.

However, shareholders unwilling to adopt the structure may opt to merge their operations and surrender excess licences.

The CBN said the draft guidelines had been released for stakeholder consultation and public review.

It invited comments and recommendations from stakeholders, noting that submissions must be made on or before July 9.

The proposal follows another draft guideline on financial holding companies issued by the apex bank on June 10, which seeks tighter ownership requirements, including a minimum 51 per cent stake in subsidiaries.

The CBN said the reforms were part of ongoing efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight and ensure the resilience of Nigeria’s financial system.


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