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The Missed Opportunities of the Nigerian Election 2023: A Metaphorical Analysis

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By Austin Okere

Following the turbulence of #NigeriaDecides2023, and with a calmer state of mind after the emotionally charged aftermath of the election, now may be an appropriate time to reflect and evaluate.

The opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not represent any institution to which I have direct or indirect ties. Given the highly charged and divisive nature of the overall discourse, it is essential to provide an impartial context.

I feel it’s relevant to disclose that I have a mixed heritage, being part Igbo, part Yoruba, and part Ghanaian. My paternal grandfather hails from Owerri in Imo State, while my paternal grandmother is from Offa in Kwara State, and my mother is Ghanaian. With that said, we can now delve into a metaphorical analysis of the missed opportunities presented by this significant election.

I believe that the history of a nation with enormous potential but lacking significant achievement is riddled with missed opportunities. Nigeria, a country that has been blessed by nature with abundant resources, including human, material, and commodities, has had tremendous opportunities to excel on the global stage.

One of the most conspicuous examples of wasted opportunities is in the Oil and Gas industry. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer for decades, Nigeria’s output has been hindered by theft and sabotage in recent years. As a result, according to OPEC reports, the country has fallen to the fourth-largest oil producer in Africa.

Our persistent mistake is the failure to utilize the opportunities presented by oil windfalls to propel Nigeria forward as a nation, similar to contemporary countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Since joining the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971, Nigeria has had numerous boom opportunities.

For instance, oil prices increased by 400% in just six months following the Yom Kippur War, triggered by the Arab Oil Embargo. In 1981, the price of crude oil doubled from $14 to $35 per barrel after the Iran/Iraq war. Additionally, the uncertainties associated with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War in 1990 led to a spike in crude oil prices, known as the ‘Gulf War windfall’ during the reign of Head of State Ibrahim Babangida.

The most recent windfall occurred in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war, with the five largest Oil and Gas companies in the West earning over $134b in excess profits, according to Global Witness.

However, this event barely caused a ripple on Nigeria’s economic landscape, as life in the country has become increasingly challenging, leading to an acute brain drain referred to as “JAPA” – the local term for emigration. This stands in stark contrast to Nigeria’s peak economic growth in 2014, when the country had a GDP of $569b, making it the largest economy in Africa. South Africa, with a GDP of $381b, was a distant second.

On a positive note, Nigeria has made major strides in the past two decades, particularly in the technology sector. The most successful GSM auction, led by Dr. Ernest Ndukwe, who was then the Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission, set the foundation for the dynamic and innovative growth of the telecoms and Fintech industries.

This has led to the emergence of unicorns and aspiring unicorns like MTN Nigeria, Airtel, Paystack, Interswitch, Flutterwave, and FifthLab by CWG Plc.

Another sector that has been greatly exploited is the creative industry, where Nigerian artists are considered one of the most remarkable inventions since sliced bread. Tems, 2Face, Burna Boy, Wizkid, Kunle Afolayan, and Stan Nze, among others, have not only won international awards but also regularly fill concert halls and stadiums worldwide.

Looking at the other side of the ledger we must examine the rued opportunities and see what we can learn from them. The most recent significant opportunities include, the eNaira (a bold attempt at digitizing the currency), the Naira redesign policy which according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, will enable her to take control of the naira in circulation, manage inflation, combat counterfeiting and ransom payment. Noble as these initiatives were, sloppy implementations have robbed us of the momentum trust into a new and better life.

The mother of all lost opportunities is the Nigerian election 2023. Here was an opportunity to outdo ourselves against the June 12, 1992 election, which has generally been adjudged as the most free, fair and credible election in the land.

A lot of work had gone into bringing this aspiration into reality; a key electoral act had been passed that ensured that election process would eliminate unnecessary manual steps that provide room for manipulation thereby aiding a free, fair and credible election process.

The Independent Electoral Commission had gone to great lengths to revamp the technology base for the election; the INEC Voter Enrollment Device (IVED), the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to help reduce the cases of manual manipulation of figures, and the INEC Election Result Viewing Portal (IREV) that will enable seamless transmission and display of election results in almost real time, so that results could be verified with what was declared and signed onto by all representatives at the polling units. The system had been successfully tested in the 2022 governorship elections in three states in the South West and South Eastern Regions.

INEC had a budget of N40b annually but was able to secure an additional N305b to conduct the 2023 elections. Despite the significant amount of money allocated and spent on the process, Nigerians saw it as a valuable investment in ending electoral manipulation and allowing the electorate to choose their leaders. This led to increased youth engagement, with many advocating for voter registration and participation. However, on election day, there were significant issues with the use of BVAS and the promised IREV portal was not utilized, leading to the announcement of results that many believed did not reflect the votes cast. This broke the trust that is necessary for an electoral process to be successful. Elder statesmen, including former President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, called for the cancellation of elections in areas where BVAS was not used. This was a missed opportunity to take a significant step forward for Nigeria’s future and will be remembered as the most controversial election in the country’s history. Electoral hopes were supremely raised and woefully dashed. It is important to understand what went wrong and why, in order to prevent future failures.

Failure is not something to be proud of, but in Nigeria, it seems to be the norm. The INEC has stubbornly refused to offer any apologies or explanations to those who are dissatisfied with the election results, instead directing them to seek redress in court. While going to court may expose the flaws in the process and ultimately strengthen it, it is only a part of the healing and improvement process.

This election had the potential to be a turning point for Nigeria, and the country could have been celebrated as a trailblazer for modern elections in Africa, which could have put an end to the endless conflicts and losses that come with electoral disputes. However, it seems that we are choosing to ignore the truth while at the same time hoping for a just and peaceful outcome. It feels like we are in a bus careening towards a ditch.

In my opinion, any action we take now will be too little, too late. Even if INEC ultimately declares either Peter Obi of the Labour Party or Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party the winner following court proceedings, the process has already been tainted, and trust has already been lost. Whoever takes office on May 29th, 2023, will lack popular legitimacy, a burden they will carry throughout their tenure.

But we are Nigerians, a people of unparalleled resilience. We will keep pushing forward and try again in four years. May God save our country.

Austin Okere is a thought leader, and business mentor. Currently an Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Columbia Business School, New York, Austin has also facilitated at the United States International University in Kenya and has been appointed to the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network in Washington in recognition of his contribution to the development of business education and knowledge transfer in Africa.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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Dufil Takes Donation of Indomie Noodles Cartons to Vulnerable Communities in Abuja and Environ

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In line with its commitment to provide critical support to indigent members of communities around the country in the face of the ongoing economic challenges, Dufil Prima Foods Limited, makers of Indomie Instant Noodles, in partnership with Golan Helps Abuja Food Bank Initiative (GHAFBI) and Meluibe Foundation on Wednesday, April 17 distributed Indomie noodles cartons to vulnerable communities in Kuje and Kubwa Local Government Areas in Abuja.

With the goal of alleviating hunger and supporting communities across Nigeria, Indomie Instant Noodles has committed to donating a substantial quantity of noodle packs to various NGOs working tirelessly to address food insecurity.

These organizations play a crucial role in reaching remote and underserved areas, ensuring that nutritious meals reach those who need them most.

“We are deeply committed to making a positive impact in the communities where we operate,” said Olusola Olayinka Idowu OON, former Permanent Secretary, Budget and National Planning, and the CEO/Founder of GHAFBI.

“At GHAFBI, we believe that everyone deserves access to wholesome and nourishing food. Our partnership with Dufil Prima Foods to donate Indomie Noodles packs is a big step towards addressing food insecurity and supporting vulnerable communities in Abuja”, said Idowu who was also the former National Conveyor, UN Food System Dialogues in Nigeria.

Speaking in the same vein, Obialunanma Nnaobi-Ayodele, Executive Director, The Meluibe Empowerment Foundation, expressed her gratitude to Indomie Noodles for the partnership. “Our vision as an NGO is to change the world one step at a time, by providing relief and support to vulnerable communities.

This is achieved through collaborations and partnerships, one of which is what we have done with Indomie Noodles. We remain grateful for their support through this food relief initiative”, she said.

By partnering with NGOs, Indomie Instant Noodles works closely with local leaders and community heads in directly engaging with rural communities to distribute noodle packs and provide immediate relief to families facing hunger and ensuring that food assistance reaches those who are most in need, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

“We are grateful for the opportunity to collaborate with NGOs and community leaders to make a meaningful difference in the lives of people facing food insecurity”, said Temitope Ashiwaju, Group Corporate Communications and Events Manager, Dufil Prima Foods Limited. “Together, we bring hope, love and relief for all”.

The community leaders and some of the beneficiaries also expressed their immense gratitude to Indomie for the support, stressing the impact the products donated will have in alleviating hunger in their communities.

Speaking at the outreach centre, His Royal Highness, Muhammed D. Jibril, Community Leader of Gbazango Community in Kubwa Local Government Area said: “I am very grateful to Indomie Noodles for coming to our aid in these challenging times. I pray for more expansion and growth for the business and may God bless Indomie Noodles”.

Other communities who benefited from the product donations include Wunmi, Tondo, Godoji and Shazhi communities in Kuje Area Council of Abuja.

Dufil Prima Food’s donation of Indomie Noodle packs underscores its commitment to corporate social responsibility and its dedication to supporting communities in need. By providing essential food relief, Dufil Prima Foods is contributing to the well-being and resilience of vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains dedicated to bringing joy to mealtimes and making a positive impact in communities around the world.


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