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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.

The article is in two parts hereunder:

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

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The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

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It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

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Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship

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General News

SERAP Asks Tinubu to Probe Alleged N6.79Bn Missing Police Funds, Firearms

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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has called on President Bola Tinubu to direct, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), attorney general of the federation and minister of Justice; Olatunji Rilwan Disu, inspector-general of Police, and relevant anti-corruption agencies to investigate allegations that more than ₦6.79 billion in public funds were missing, diverted or misapplied within the Nigeria Police Force and the Federal Ministry of Police Affairs.

SERAP Asks Tinubu to Probe Alleged N6.79Bn Missing Police Funds, Firearms

The allegations are contained in the Auditor-General of the Federation’s 2022 Annual Report, published on September 9, 2025.

In a letter dated August 1, 2026, and signed by Kolawole Oluwadare, deputy director, SERAP,  the organisation urged the government to ensure that anyone implicated in the report is prosecuted and that all missing public funds, firearms and ammunition are recovered.

“Anyone suspected to be responsible—including contractors, companies and public officials implicated in the report—should be promptly prosecuted, while all missing public funds, firearms and ammunition should be fully recovered, secured and properly accounted for.”

SERAP described the Auditor-General’s findings as a serious breach of public trust.

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“The Auditor-General’s findings suggest a grave betrayal of the public trust and raise serious concerns about corruption and the management of public funds, police exhibits, firearms and ammunition.”

The organisation also expressed concern over allegations involving missing firearms, unauthorised use and release of police exhibits, and poor storage of weapons.

“The report also raises serious concerns over missing firearms and ammunition, the unauthorised use and release of police exhibits, failures to properly account for exhibits, and the insecure storage of firearms, creating significant risks to public safety and national security.”

According to SERAP, the alleged diversion of funds meant for policing and the reported irregularities have weakened the operational effectiveness of the Nigeria Police Force.

“The diversion of funds meant for policing, abandoned security projects, missing firearms and ammunition, and the misuse of police exhibits undermine the operational effectiveness of the Nigeria Police Force, weaken public confidence and may contribute to Nigeria’s worsening insecurity.”

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The organisation said the Auditor-General’s report documented several alleged financial irregularities, including payments for projects that were never executed, abandoned contracts, inflated contract costs, irregular procurement, unretired cash advances, unsettled insurance claims and payments for services allegedly not rendered.

“The report documented numerous alleged financial irregularities within the Nigeria Police Force and the Federal Ministry of Police Affairs, including payments for projects that were never executed, abandoned contracts, inflated contract costs, and irregular procurement.”

“The report also documented unretired cash advances, unsettled insurance claims, payments for services allegedly not rendered, and other suspected diversion and misapplication of public funds amounting to over ₦6.79 billion.”SERAP further cited allegations of missing firearms and ammunition, failures to properly account for recovered weapons and exhibits, and insecure storage of firearms.

“The allegations also include missing firearms and ammunition, the unauthorised use and release of police exhibits, failures to properly account for recovered firearms and other exhibits, and the insecure storage of firearms, posing serious risks to public safety and national security.”

The organisation gave the Federal Government seven days to act on its demands, warning that it would pursue legal action if no response is received.

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“We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within seven days of the receipt and/or publication of this letter. If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall consider appropriate legal action to compel your government to comply with our request in the public interest.”

SERAP also argued that the allegations, if left unaddressed, would violate constitutional provisions requiring the government to combat corruption and safeguard the welfare and security of Nigerians.

Among the specific findings cited from the Auditor-General’s report were allegations of payments for abandoned and unexecuted police projects worth hundreds of millions of naira, inflated contract values, unretired cash advances, irregular procurement processes, unsettled insurance claims exceeding ₦681 million, over ₦1 billion in uncleared insurance policy liabilities, missing firearms and ammunition, unauthorised release of police exhibits, and contracts allegedly awarded without due diligence by the Federal Ministry of Police Affairs.

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Dare Tackles Onaiyekan over Criticism of Tinubu, Says Economic is Working

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Sunday Dare, special adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, has faulted the criticism directed at President Bola Tinubu and his economic policies by John Cardinal Onaiyekan, Archbishop Emeritus  and the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN).

Dare Tackles Onaiyekan over Criticism of Tinubu, Says Economic is Working

Sunday Dare, special adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication,

During an interview with Arise TV, Onaiyekan, who had led Catholic Bishops on a visit to the President, revealed details of their discussion.

“When the nation is bleeding, you cannot expect a polite meeting with the Head of State. We told him the economy is not helping our poor people; he told us the economy is doing fine. Frankly speaking, he told us quite clearly that he did not agree with us,” Onaiyekan said.

He added, “We didn’t expect him to agree with us. We have done our duty, we have delivered our message, and we have a feeling that somehow, along the line, somebody will show him a few of the things we said.”

Reacting, Dare stated that while Onaiyekan and his cohort choose the easy path of populist lamentation, the facts of President Tinubu’s administration reveal a relentless, methodical restoration of the Nigerian state. He said that by courageously removing the petrol subsidy and unifying the foreign exchange windows within his first days in office, President Tinubu ended decades of economic illusion.

“State and local governments now receive record-breaking monthly allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), enabling governors—including those in the Catholic heartlands—to pay salaries, fund local infrastructure, and service pensions promptly. The debt service-to-revenue ratio has been dramatically slashed to under 65%, pulling Nigeria back from the edge of default and restoring international credit rating confidence, he said..

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According to Dare, the administration did not merely reform numbers; it invested in human dignity. He noted that through the landmark establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), millions of indigent students across tertiary institutions now access interest-free loans for tuition and stipends. “Academic calendar stability has been restored, ending the agony of prolonged university strikes that once paralysed national development,” he said.

The presidential spokesperson revealed that to counter global inflation and local supply shocks, the Tinubu administration deployed emergency agricultural interventions that involve direct distribution of hundreds of thousands of metric tons of grains and fertilisers to smallholder farmers nationwide, the multi-billion naira investments in dry-season farming, mechanisation hubs, and irrigation infrastructure aimed at achieving permanent food self-sufficiency.

He said to understand the weight of President Tinubu’s achievements, one must first measure the abyss Nigeria faced on the eve of his inauguration. He recalled that in May 2023, the Nigerian nation was hovering on the precipice of total economic collapse and structural paralysis.

“The unsustainable petrol subsidy regime was draining trillion-naira holes into the national treasury monthly, enriching a parasitic cabal of smugglers and middlemen while starving sub-national governments of basic infrastructure funding. A fraudulent multi-tiered foreign exchange system had turned the Central Bank of Nigeria into an arbitrage engine, crippling legitimate manufacturing, scaring off foreign direct investment, and burning through scarce external reserves.

“The nation’s debt service-to-revenue ratio had spiralled to an unsustainable 97 per cent, meaning Nigeria was literally borrowing money to pay interest on past loans while operational governance ran on fiscal fumes. This was the broken, bleeding nation handed over to President Tinubu. It required bold surgery, not diplomatic sedation. Yet, when the President applied the sharp scalpel of structural reform, armchair critics and political opponents decried the incision while ignoring the terminal tumour it removed,” he said.

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Lenacapavir, HIV Injectable Drug Offers Pregnant, Lactating Mothers 100 Percent Protection – Study

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Lenacapavir, injectable HIV prevention drug, has been found to provide 100 percent protection against HIV infection among pregnant and breastfeeding women using it as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Lenacapavir, HIV Injectable Drug Offers Pregnant, Lactating Mothers 100 Percent Protection - Study

This is according to sub-study of the landmark clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of the twice-yearly injectable HIV prevention drug.

The Phase 3 PURPOSE 1 trial results, published in the Lancet Medical Journal last week and presented at the ongoing 2026 International AIDS Conference Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, show the injection to be safe for use in pregnancy.

While Lenacapavir was previously studied and demonstrated high efficacy and safety as PrEP in cisgender women, its use during pregnancy and lactation, when women are disproportionately vulnerable to HIV acquisition, was not described in the initial studies that formed the World Health Organisation’s global recommendation for the drug.

Now, in the latest study, Dr Flavia Matovu Kiweewa, a senior Research Scientist at MUJHU, said they checked for drug traces in breast milk and exposure to an unborn baby and found drug exposure levels across all trimesters and postpartum were comparable to non-pregnant participants, confirming no dose adjustments are needed for this group.

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Among 5345 women enrolled between Sept 28, 2021, and Sept 15, 2023, 487 participants, 184 allocated to Lenacapavir and 303  allocated to oral PrEP, had one or more pregnancies, resulting in 509 total pregnancies with 512 pregnancy outcomes, including three sets of twins.

While the study involved women aged between 16 and 26 years in both South Africa and Uganda, 80 percent of all the pregnancies recorded were in Uganda. Results show Lenacapavir was present in breast milk, but exposure in breastfed infants was minimal. Drug concentrations were measured in the blood of the mothers, breast milk, and breastfed infants’ blood.

Kiweewa said thatthese results are a breakthrough as pregnant and postpartum women face elevated vulnerability of HIV acquisition, yet historically they have been excluded from early prevention trials, leading to years-long evidence gaps.

The study compared twice-yearly Lenacapavir with daily oral PrEP in women who were not pregnant at enrollment.

But, unlike previous studies, women who got pregnant while participating in the study were, for the first time, left on their allocated study drug.

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Now, because of the new findings, Kiweewa said at one of their study sites in Mityana District Hospital, they have decided to dedicate seventy percent of their drug supplies to women.

 

 

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