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Coronation Merchant Bank Projects 2.8% GDP Growth for 2023

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Experts at Coronation Merchant Bank have projected 2.8 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product for 2023, attributing it to slow policy implementations and capital expenses due to laser focus on the general elections and transition between administration in the first half of the year.

Chinwe Egwim, the Chief Economist and Head, Economic Research/Intelligence, Coronation Merchant Bank, in a presentation stated that the GDP growth is projected to be driven mainly by the non-oil sector.

According to her, “The services, agriculture and manufacturing sectors are likely to remain key growth drivers, supported by financial interventions by the CBN. Furthermore, the effective implementation of the 2022 Finance Act and the Strategic Revenue Growth Initiatives should contribute to the growth drive through increased non-oil revenues.

“We also considered stable oil prices above USD80/barrel. However, we expect domestic crude oil production to remain below pre-COVID19 levels, due to existing challenges within the sector.

“We have also taken into consideration, relatively weak consumption patterns on the back of high inflation and its impact on service-oriented sectors, the impact of foreign exchange depreciation and increased borrowing costs on business activities.”

She noted that there would Be increased foreign exchange demand due to the need for safe- haven currency (USD) on the back of security concerns.

We expect weak portfolio investment inflow on the back of negative real returns (yields vs inflation) and the political risks surrounding the 2023 general elections. We considered the absence of Nigeria from the ICM in the near term, which does not bode well for external reserves.

“Accordingly, we expect that the existing demand patterns in the parallel market will continue. In our base case scenario, we see the foreign exchange rate at the NAFEX/I&E window at N505/ USD by end-2023.

“We considered: stable growth in non-oil exports boosted by the RT 200 foreign exchange program, continuous injections by the CBN (avg. seven per cent of total inflows on a m/m basis), halt to fuel subsidy payments by end-H1 2023.

She stated that analysts at Coronation Merchant Bank expected inflation to moderate in 2023, partly attributed to positive base effects and the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) current stance on the policy rate.

She noted that the persistent supply shocks on the back of the on-going Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as structural issues impacting the cost of doing business such as insecurity and other logistical challenges would likely keep inflation elevated.

“Other factors include, base effects, depreciation of the naira in the parallel market and an uptick in the price of PMS, due to the potential subsidy removal which would impact the cost of transport and possible demand-pull inflation triggered by increased fiscal stimulus.

“In our base case scenario, we see inflation at 18.3per cent y/y for end-2023,” she added. Speaking at the leading financial institution’s Economic Review and Outlook themed: “baton handoff economic headwinds and risk resilience in Lagos recently,” she noted

Also speaking at the event, Mr. Banjo Adegbohungbe, the MD/CEO, Coronation Merchant Bank, in his opening speech said imminent transition is the overall theme of 2023 as Nigeria is currently having transitions in so many spheres happening at once.

According to him, “And not just that this transition is happening at the domestic environment, we also have the domestic impact of a lot of events that are occurring across the globe at the same time.

“For example, the recent downgrades of Nigeria’s risk ratings highlight various concerns around critical challenges that are filled the spotlight on our direction post transition in 2023.

“While there are significant headwinds in 2023, we believe that the potential also exists to tap into new opportunities.

“At the end of the day, the focus is simple and that is to enable you navigate the headwinds and achieve your respective strategic objectives by identifying those new opportunities.”

 


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FRC, ICPC Seal Anti-corruption Alliance

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The Fiscal Responsibility Commission (FRC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to enhance institutional synergy and accountability in public finance management.

The partnership is also to deepen transparency and strengthen the fight against corruption in Nigeria.

The Executive Chairman of the FRC, Mr. Victor Muruako, and the Executive Chairman of the ICPC, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, expressed profound satisfaction over the partnership, describing the signing as timely and symbolic, coming on a day dedicated globally to integrity, transparency, and the fight against corruption.

Speaking at the ceremony, both chairmen reaffirmed their agency’s shared commitment to prudent management of Nigeria’s resources, fiscal discipline, and the coordinated strategies to confront corruption and financial mismanagement.

Under the MoU, both agencies will collaborate extensively in capacity building, joint investigations, information sharing, asset recovery, and enforcement operations.

The ICPC, through its Anti-Corruption Academy of Nigeria (ACAN), will provide specialised training to FRC staff in forensic investigations, financial crime detection, digital evidence recovery, and prosecution strategies. In turn, both agencies will exchange resource persons for workshops and public enlightenment programmes.

The agreement further empowers both institutions to conduct joint investigations and coordinated operations where violations cut across the mandates of both the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007 and the ICPC Act, 2000. It also establishes a framework for mutual assistance in tracing, freezing, confiscating, and recovering stolen public funds.

On information sharing, the MoU guarantees the confidential exchange of intelligence, financial records, and technical data, while upholding strict ethical standards and full compliance with all applicable laws.

According to the parties, the collaboration will significantly enhance Nigeria’s anti-corruption architecture by eliminating institutional silos and strengthening enforcement outcomes.

The Memorandum of Understanding, which can be terminated with a 30-day notice by either party, marks a renewed and expanded phase of cooperation between the two key integrity institutions.

The signing ceremony concluded with both chairmen reaffirming their resolve to work tirelessly to promote accountability, transparency, and sustainable national development in line with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and existing anti-corruption laws.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the FRC, Victor Muruako, has commended the ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, and his team for sustaining the Commission’s legacy as one of Nigeria’s frontline anti-corruption institutions. Muruako particularly highlighted the signing of the MoU between the two agencies, describing it as a major step toward strengthening inter-agency collaboration in tackling corruption at all levels of government.

According to him, both agencies have, in recent months, intensified joint efforts to enhance accountability and prevent corruption at the local government level. These efforts, he noted, focus on improved budget preparation, prudent management of public funds, and the modernisation of tax, financial and asset administration systems.

He emphasised that where acts of corruption are detected, the law must take its full course to deter future offenders.


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Debt Rises in AI Data Centre Boom

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As AI fever has propelled global stocks to record highs, the data centres needed to power the technology are increasingly being financed with debt, adding to concerns about the risks.

A UBS report last month said AI data centre and project financing deals surged to $125 billion so far this year, from $15 billion in the same period in 2024, with more supply from the sector expected to be pivotal for credit markets in 2026.

“Public and private credit seems to have become a major source of funding for AI investments, and its rapid growth raised some concerns,” said Anton Dombrovskiy, fixed income portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.

“Although up until now an increase in supply has been met with relatively healthy demand, this is the area to watch especially taking into account large financing needs estimates,” Dombrovskiy added.

The Bank of England warned last week that the growing role of debt in the AI infrastructure boom could heighten potential financial stability risks if valuations correct.

Christopher Kramer, portfolio manager and senior trader on Investment Grade Credit team at Neuberger told Reuters that the market has seen a structural shift as the largest technology companies finance their AI infrastructure ambitions.

“They really haven’t been focal points in our market from a debt issuance standpoint, and that’s obviously shifting really dramatically … anytime you have that, it creates a lot of opportunity,” he said on November 28.

“We’re excited just from the standpoint that the market’s changing. You’re going to have a different dynamic, it creates an opportunity to take risks and create value for our investors,” Kramer added.


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FG to Use Digital Economy Initiatives to Curb Corruption Among Youth

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Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, has said that Federal Government is intensifying its use of digital-economy initiatives to curb corruption among young Nigerians.

Speaking at the commemoration of the 2025 International Anti-Corruption Day held on Tuesday in Abuja, the AGF said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has deliberately positioned technology, innovation training, and digital-skills development at the heart of its anti-corruption strategy for young people.

The event, organized by Technical Unit on Governance and Anti-Corruption Reforms (TUGAR) domiciled at the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) had the theme: “Uniting with Youth Against Corruption: Shaping Tomorrow’s Integrity”.

Fagbemi, who delivered the keynote address, said the government believes that empowered, skilled and economically engaged youths are less vulnerable to corrupt influences.

According to him, programmes such as the 3 Million Technical Talents Programme (3MTT) and the recently launched Nigerian Youth Academy (NiYA) are already equipping millions of young Nigerians with ICT and digital-innovation skills, reducing their dependence on patronage systems that fuel corrupt practices.

“A hopeful youth is harder to corrupt; an engaged youth is harder to mislead; and an empowered youth is a powerful force for national transformation,” Fagbemi said.

He explained that by investing in digital literacy, tech entrepreneurship and innovation-driven training, the Tinubu administration aims to create a generation of young Nigerians who are globally competitive and resistant to corruption.

Beyond digital skills, the AGF pointed at several government efforts to expand educational access through the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), and support youth entrepreneurship via the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund (NYIF) and the iDICE programme, providing funding, training and mentorship for young innovators in tech, entertainment, agriculture and design.

Fagbemi added that the inclusion of young people in governance, through appointments and expanded civic-engagement platforms, was another strategic tool to strengthen integrity and transparency in public life.

He urged stakeholders to deepen efforts to integrate anti-corruption values into school curricula, establish integrity clubs, mentor young leaders, and leverage ICT tools to promote transparency, whistleblowing and public accountability.

Earlier, the Head of TUGAR, Mrs Jane Onwumere said the gathering was especially meaningful because it reflected a shared truth: that tomorrow’s integrity rests significantly in the hands of the youth.

“The theme therefore, is not just a slogan but a call to action and a reminder that young people are not only beneficiaries of good governance, they are co-architects of it.

“Corruption has affected lives and the economy negatively in many ways. One of such is the “japa wave” which has seen young Nigerians leave the country in droves in search of greener pastures. This syndrome has drained the country of resources and human capital. It has in many situations split the family unit, a critical foundation for anti-corruption efforts”, Onwumere, added.

In his speech, the Executive Secretary, NEITI, Hon. Musa Sarkin Adar expressed the agency’s commitment to empowering young Nigerians not only as advocates for accountability but also as active partners in shaping the future of integrity in the extractive industries and beyond.

“At NEITI, we recognize that corruption undermines opportunities for growth, distorts resource governance, and deepens inequality. We also know that a united, informed, and courageous generation can dismantle these barriers.

“This is why NEITI will continue to expand civic education, strengthen our reporting mechanisms, support youth-led innovation, and create more platforms for constructive engagement with young professionals, students, and entrepreneurs”, he added.

 


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