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Nigeria’s Inflation Drop: Has Life Become Any Easier?

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By Blaise Udunze 

When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday announced that Nigeria’s inflation rate had dropped to 18.02 percent in September 2025, the news was met with official applause. Government officials hailed it as evidence that the economy is recovering. Yet, for the millions of Nigerians struggling to buy food, pay rent, or fuel their generators, the question remains painfully simple: has life become any easier? The answer, for most Nigerians, is no.

Inflation has long been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn economic afflictions that has been eroding purchasing power, distorting markets, and deepening poverty. The recent “decline” in inflation has not eased the everyday hardship of ordinary people. Prices are still rising, incomes remain stagnant, and hope for relief feels distant.

Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally cost-push in nature, not demand-driven. Rising energy prices, unstable foreign exchange, high transport costs, and insecurity in food-producing regions continue to fuel cost increases across all sectors. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, though intended to restore fiscal discipline, have instead unleashed a new wave of inflationary pain. Each naira devaluation has made imports costlier, and with Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported food, fuel, and raw materials, the consequences are devastating for consumers.

This disconnect between the headline figures and the lived reality has deepened public distrust. Many Nigerians believe official inflation data do not reflect the economic pain they face daily. Critics, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have flagged weaknesses in Nigeria’s inflation measurement system: outdated expenditure weights dating back to 2003/2004, poor representation of the informal sector, and underweighted essentials like food and energy. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is infrequently rebased, it often lags behind real market conditions, which makes the official inflation rate appear lower than what citizens actually experience.

Independent trackers such as the “Jollof Index,” which measures the cost of cooking a basic Nigerian meal, consistently show higher inflation than the NBS reports. To most households, this is not a debate about methodology but about survival. A N1,000 note that once covered dinner now barely buys a few milk cups of rice. A civil servant’s salary, unchanged for years, has lost more than half its value. The supposed inflation “drop” is deceptive to those whose plates are emptier and whose transport costs have tripled.

Inflation has been a recurring symptom of Nigeria’s economic fragility since the return to democracy in 1999. Under Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), inflation briefly spiked to 28 percent but eventually stabilized at single digits through reforms and debt relief. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007-2010) faced steady price rises amid Niger Delta unrest and weak policy continuity. Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) managed to keep inflation moderate, averaging about 10 percent, helped by oil windfalls and tighter monetary policy. However, under Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), inflation more than doubled, peaking above 21 percent as recession, currency crises, and supply shocks battered the economy. The current administration of Bola Tinubu (2023-present) has witnessed the sharpest surge yet, which was above 34 percent in late 2024, as this was driven by subsidy removal, naira float, and imported inflation. Though the official rate now claims to have fallen to 18.02 percent after statistical rebasing, Nigerians still endure the steepest cost-of-living crisis in the nation’s history.

Across these 24 years of democratic governance, the pattern is unmistakable, showing that Nigeria’s inflation is structural, not cyclical. It is rooted in weak productivity, fiscal indiscipline, policy inconsistency, and dependence on imports. While numbers fluctuate, the hardship remains constant. Inflation may fall on paper, but it never leaves the market stalls, the bus parks, or the kitchens of ordinary Nigerians.

Efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to fight inflation through higher interest rates have achieved little because monetary tools alone cannot fix structural weaknesses. The way forward demands a broader agenda through reviving domestic production, securing farmlands, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, curbing fiscal leakages, and reforming energy and transport infrastructure to cut costs. Until then, inflation data will continue to serve as statistical comfort in an economic storm.

Inflation is not just a number; it is a mirror of national mismanagement. For now, Nigerians have learned to distrust figures that contradict the evidence of their daily struggles. A fall to 18.02 percent may please policymakers and investors, but it changes nothing for the teacher whose salary buys less each month or the parents who must choose between school fees and food.

Economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again, not living impoverished.

The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.

Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.

The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.

Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.

Contrary to the promise by this administration of sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.

This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.

Until the supposed recovery begins to show up in the kitchen, the market, and the wallet, the fall in inflation will remain what it truly is a statistical victory and a national deceit.

Again, we must understand that economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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General News

First Trustees to Host 8th Islamic Estate Planning Clinic in Abuja

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First Trustees, a subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc., and a leading provider of trust solutions for individuals, corporates, and government institutions, is proud to announce its 8th Islamic Estate Planning Clinic, scheduled to take place on February 7, 2026, in Abuja, Nigeria.

This highly anticipated forum is designed to educate and empower participants on structuring Islamic wealth transfer in today’s evolving world. The Clinic will provide practical guidance on how to secure and preserve legacies in accordance with Islamic principles, ensuring that wealth is managed and passed on responsibly across generations.

The event is being hosted in partnership with The Metropolitan Law Firm and will feature an esteemed lineup of speakers, including: Professor Isah Ali Pantami, Former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy; Professor Adam Abubakar, ESQ, Professor of Islamic Banking and Finance, Yobe State University; Professor Dauda Abubakar, Founder and Director, Dawood Research Institute; HE Aisha Babangida, Chairperson, Better Life Program for the African Rural Woman; Ummahani Ahmad Amin, Managing Partner, Metropolitan Law Firm; Barrister Mohammed Yunusa, Partner at The Metropolitan Law Firm; Ismail Rufai, Managing Director/CEO, One17 Financial Services Limited; Mutiat Olatunji, Al-ameen Trustees Limited; and Rotimi Obende, Head, Private Trust, First Trustees Limited.

Together, these thought leaders will share insights on the importance of Estate Planning within Islamic law, highlighting strategies for safeguarding family wealth and ensuring continuity.

First Trustees remains committed to providing innovative trust solutions that help clients preserve their legacies while staying true to their values.


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Nigeria’s Data Privacy Economy Hits ₦16.2bn – NDPC Commissioner

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Nigeria’s data privacy ecosystem has generated an estimated ₦16.2 billion in less than two years, according to the National Commissioner of the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC), Dr Vincent Olatunji.

Nigeria’s Data Privacy Economy Hits ₦16.2bn - NDPC Commissioner

NDPC

Speaking during a virtual press conference at a capacity-building engagement held at the Marriott Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, Olatunji said the figure reflects the growing importance of data protection in Nigeria’s digital economy.

He noted that the Commission’s initiatives have created jobs, boosted compliance, and strengthened trust in digital transactions.

Olatunji explained that Nigeria’s journey in data protection began in 2019 with the establishment of the NDPR framework, which later evolved into the NDPC.

Since then, the Commission has focused on building awareness, strengthening compliance, and creating a robust ecosystem that integrates technology, collaboration, and sustainability.

He highlighted Nigeria’s active role in the Network of African Data Protection Authorities (NARPA), stressing that the country has emerged as a continental leader in privacy regulation.

In December 2025, the NDPC won the Picasso Award as Africa’s most outstanding data protection authority, a recognition he said underscores Nigeria’s growing influence in the global privacy space.

Responding to questions from journalists, Olatunji assured that the Commission is committed to protecting the rights of data subjects, including the ability to correct or ratify personal details on government platforms.

He urged citizens to report violations to the NDPC for immediate intervention.

On concerns about international data transfers, particularly agreements involving Nigeria and foreign governments, Olatunji said the Commission would continue to monitor such arrangements to safeguard national interests and ensure compliance with data protection laws.

He concluded by stressing that data privacy is central to Nigeria’s future economy, calling for sustained investment in human capital, technology, and regulatory frameworks to build trust and confidence in the digital space.


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How Plot to Topple Tinubu was Uncovered, Foiled

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A covert intelligence operation coordinated by the Army Headquarters and the State Security Service (SSS) helped thwart a deadly plot to overthrow President Bola Tinubu’s government and assassinate key political figures, PREMIUM TIMES can authoritatively report.

How Plot to Topple Tinubu was Uncovered, Foiled

Multiple senior administration insiders said the plot began to unravel in late September 2025 after an unnamed military officer with direct knowledge of the coup contacted the Olufemi Oluyede, then Chief of Army Staff.

The officer reportedly disclosed the scheme, saying he feared being implicated as an accessory to treason if he failed to alert authorities.

Our sources said around the same time, the SSS independently gathered intelligence indicating that some serving army officers were plotting to “destabilise the government and undermine Nigeria’s democracy.” An official familiar with the matter said Oluwatosin Ajayi, director-general of the SSS, personally briefed Mr Oluyede on the findings.

Faced with converging intelligence from multiple sources, the two security chiefs agreed to act swiftly. A wide-ranging but discreet joint operation was launched by the army and the SSS, with coordinated arrests planned across different parts of the country to neutralise the coup’s masterminds and other collaborators.

On 30 September 2025, as President Tinubu travelled to Imo State for an official visit, unaware of the plot to depose and possibly assassinate him, the joint operation went into effect. The sweep led to the arrest of the alleged principal architects of the coup, alongside other military and civilian suspects.

Emmanuel Undiandeye, chief of Defence Intelligence (CDI), and the then Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, were subsequently briefed.

Mr Undiandeye was then requested to detain the suspects in the underground holding facility of the Defence Intelligence Agency.

Following the initial arrests, President Tinubu was formally informed of the foiled plot. A visibly shaken president immediately ordered the cancellation of the 1 October National Independence Day parade. He also approved the constitution of a special investigative panel, which later led to additional arrests. The investigative panel was led by General Undiandeye.

One of the detained soldiers later escaped custody but was rearrested by SSS operatives in Bauchi, a military insider said.

Meanwhile, a retired officer identified as General Adamu and a former governor, Timipre Sylva, accused of bankrolling the coup plotters, remained at large.

Tinubu later fired and retired General Musa, then Chief of Defence Staff, as well as the chiefs of the navy and air force. My Oluyede was appointed CDS and promoted to the rank of General. Weeks later, Mr Musa returned to government as Minister of Defence.

In a statement issued on 4 October, the Defence Headquarters said the arrested officers were being investigated for “indiscipline and breach of service regulations.”

It added that preliminary findings suggested the officers’ grievances were linked to “career stagnation and failure in promotion examinations.”

Despite mounting evidence and a series of detailed reports by PREMIUM TIMES and other media outlets, the military repeatedly denied that a coup plot existed.

In an 18 October statement, the Defence Headquarters described the probe involving the 16 arrested officers as a routine internal investigation aimed at maintaining discipline and professionalism within the armed forces.

However, on 26 January, the military publicly acknowledged for the first time that officers had indeed plotted to illegally overthrow President Tinubu’s administration. It announced that those indicted would be arraigned before a military judicial panel.

According to the Defence Headquarters, the investigation was “comprehensive” and conducted in line with established procedures, examining “all circumstances surrounding the conduct of the affected personnel.”

It said the findings revealed “a number of officers with allegations of ‘plotting to overthrow the government,” describing such conduct as ‘inconsistent with the ethics, values and professional standards required of members of the Armed Forces of Nigeria.”

“Accordingly, those with cases to answer will be formally arraigned before an appropriate military judicial panel to face trial in accordance with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations,” the statement added.

In an earlier report, PREMIUM TIMES quoted sources with direct knowledge of the investigation as identifying top officials allegedly marked for assassination. They include President Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas.

“There are other people targeted,” one source said. “But those are the key targets.”

The plotters also planned to detain senior military officers, including the service chiefs. “They did not want to kill them,” the source added.

According to the sources, the conspirators intended to assassinate the political leaders simultaneously. “They were waiting for a day when all of them would be in the country,” one official said. “Wherever they were, they would be assassinated.”

The sources said the plotters relied on informants within the Presidential Villa and around the officials slated for elimination.

“They have people inside the Villa who monitor the movements of these officials,” the source said. “The plan was to kill them at the same time and install a military government.” (PREMIUM TIMES)


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