General News
Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.

Dangote
With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.
Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.
For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.
The Long Silence of Refinery Investments
Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.
Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.
Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.
The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries
If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.
Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.
Where Is BUA?
Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.
This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.
Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison
Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.
Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.
The Cost of Import Dependence
For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.
Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.
Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?
Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.
Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.
The Traders’ Dilemma
Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.
In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.
FDI and the Confidence Problem
Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.
Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.
Dangote and the Monopoly Question
Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.
Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.
The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.
This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.
The Litmus Test
Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.
The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
General News
Guinea-Bissau Taps United Nigeria Airlines to Establish AIR BISSAU, National Carrier

Government of Guinea-Bissau has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Nigeria’s United Nigeria Airlines to establish AIR BISSAU, a national carrier, for the West African country, to boost its aviation industry and reduce its dependence on foreign airlines.

The agreement, signed in Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau, was disclosed in a statement made available by the airline on Sunday.
The MoU was signed by Dr Florentino Pereira, minister of Transport, Telecommunications and Digital Economy, Guinea-Bissau and Prof Obiora Okonkwo, executive chairman of United Nigeria Airlines.
Recall that Nigeria currently has no national carrier despite repeated calls by industry stakeholders for its establishment to facilitate reciprocal flight rights to foreign destinations, particularly the United States.
Attempts to establish a national carrier through a partnership with Ethiopian Airlines also hit a brick wall following lawsuits by the Airline Operators of Nigeria, an association for which Okonkwo once served as spokesperson.
Other factors that contributed to the failure of the national carrier project included deep-seated political issues, allegations of fraud and a controversial ownership structure.
In the latest agreement between the Nigerian airline and Guinea-Bissau, which was made available to our correspondent, both parties will “explore a comprehensive cooperation framework aimed at establishing a fully operational national airline with Osvaldo Vieira International Airport in Bissau serving as the operational base and hub for the carrier’s initial routes.”
For decades, Guinea-Bissau has relied largely on regional carriers and charter services to connect its citizens and businesses to other countries.
A key component of the MoU is the creation of a joint venture company that will operate as Guinea-Bissau’s national airline.
Under the arrangement, United Nigeria Airlines will provide the majority of the financial investment, operational expertise, aircraft and management for the new carrier.
Extending beyond commercial operations, the Nigerian carrier is expected to “provide and operate an executive jet for the use of the President and Government of Guinea-Bissau.”
To facilitate the project, the government pledged to “facilitate the registration and licensing of the new national carrier in line with domestic laws and streamline authorisation processes through both the Civil Aviation Authority of Guinea-Bissau and the Civil Aviation Authority of Nigeria.”
Guinea-Bissau also agreed to designate AIR BISSAU as its official national carrier, granting it “full rights over all existing Bilateral Air Services Agreement entitlements.”
According to the MoU, the designation would give the airline “significant leverage in securing route rights and authorisations to regional and international destinations,” described as an important commercial and diplomatic asset.
The government further committed to ensuring that Osvaldo Vieira International Airport receives the infrastructure support required for the airline’s operations, including access provisions, ground support services and assistance with customs, immigration and security compliance.
Additionally, Guinea-Bissau pledged to invest in the establishment of the airline and create mechanisms that would protect and incentivise investment through the existing Investment Code and applicable tax frameworks.
As part of efforts to develop local aviation expertise, United Nigeria Airlines plans to train “qualified Guinean nationals including pilots, cabin crew, and technical maintenance personnel” and employ local staff wherever feasible in line with government employment policies.
The MoU makes it clear that operational control of the airline will remain with the Nigerian carrier.
“For the purposes of safety, reliability, and efficiency, the overall management, operational control, and general direction of the new airline will rest with the management team of United Nigeria Airlines,” the statement noted.
Both parties also agreed to provide full liability and hull insurance coverage for all flight operations, conduct annual independent safety and maintenance audits, and establish asset protection mechanisms for investors.
The agreement takes immediate effect and will remain valid for 18 months or until a substantive joint venture agreement is concluded.
General News
IMF Urges FG to Introduce Fuel, Telecom Taxes

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended introducing taxes on fuel products and telecommunications services in Nigeria.

According to the IMF, this is part of broader measures to increase government revenue and create fiscal space for development spending and social interventions.
The international financial organization argued that stronger revenue mobilisation had become increasingly important as Nigeria’s fiscal position remained under pressure despite recent reforms.
This comes as Nigerians are protesting against worsening standard of living made worse by widespread insurgency.
The recommendation was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, where the Fund argued that additional tax measures would be needed over the medium term despite the recent overhaul of the country’s tax system.
“Further tax policy changes will likely be needed—such as increasing the VAT rate, extending VAT to fuel products, rationalising tax expenditures in particular VAT exemptions on extractive industries and some customs duties, and introducing telecom excises—to complement administrative gains,” the IMF said.
The institution, however, cautioned that the timing of any new taxes must take into account Nigeria’s rising poverty levels and worsening food insecurity.
“The timing of reforms must consider the poverty and food insecurity situation and ensure that the cash transfer system is in place and funded,” the Fund added.
A previous attempt by the Federal Government to impose a five per cent excise duty on telecom services met strong resistance from operators, subscribers and consumer advocacy groups before it was suspended and eventually scrapped.
Telecommunications firms had maintained that the industry was already weighed down by multiple taxes, rising energy costs, foreign exchange challenges and infrastructure constraints.
They warned that any additional levy would likely be transferred to consumers through higher call and data tariffs.
Similarly, proposals to tax fuel products have faced opposition from labour unions and private sector organisations amid concerns over the rising cost of living following the removal of petrol subsidies and increases in transport and food prices.
The IMF’s latest recommendation comes as the Fund projects that Nigeria will require stronger revenue mobilisation efforts to sustain planned increases in public spending and provide support for vulnerable households.
According to the report, revenue-enhancing tax policies could generate additional revenue equivalent to 3.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product within three years of implementation.
The Fund identified a two-percentage-point increase in the Value Added Tax rate as the largest contributor, with a projected revenue gain of 0.8 per cent of GDP.
The report also projected that removing pioneer status incentives and revising free zone regulations would generate an additional 0.7 per cent of GDP.
Reforms to capital gains taxation and adjustments to personal income tax bands, allowances and rates were each estimated to contribute 0.6 per cent of GDP.
The IMF further estimated that a top-up tax on multinationals and large firms could raise 0.5 per cent of GDP, while rationalising investment allowances would contribute another 0.4 per cent.
Notably, the category labelled “others”, which includes telecom excise duties and measures such as a carbon tax on fuel, was projected to generate an additional 0.4 per cent of GDP in revenue.
Beyond new tax measures, the Fund said Nigeria could achieve even greater gains through improved tax administration.
It projected that administrative reforms would generate an additional 3.1 per cent of GDP through better compliance, stronger enforcement and efforts to reduce informality in the economy.
According to the report, measures such as fiscalisation, electronic invoicing and cross-validation of tax deductions could generate 1.5 per cent of GDP, while expanded tax identification registration and consolidation of taxpayer databases could contribute a further 1.6 per cent of GDP.
The IMF acknowledged that some of Nigeria’s recently enacted tax reforms would reduce government revenue in the short term because they were designed to support households and small businesses.
It estimated that revenue-reducing measures would lower revenues by 2.4 per cent of GDP.
Expanded VAT input credits, additional zero-rated items and broader exemptions on basic consumption goods were projected to account for 1.7 percentage points of the decline.
Lower corporate income tax obligations for smaller firms would reduce revenues by 0.4 per cent of GDP, while lower personal income tax rates and expanded exemptions for low-income earners would account for another 0.3 percentage-point reduction.
Overall, the IMF projected that the combined impact of revenue-enhancing measures, administrative reforms and revenue-reducing policies would result in a net increase in government revenue equivalent to 4.6 per cent of GDP over the medium term.Nigerian investment opportunities
General News
₦5m up for Grabs as 10 Startups Clash at the Gathering on 100 Pitchathon Aba

MTN Nigeria, through The Gathering on 100, has officially unveiled the next chapter of its youth cultural and creative movement in Aba, the home of entrepreneurship and innovation in Eastern Nigeria.

The initiative transformed the Prime Time Event Centre in Osisioma into a vibrant hub of innovation, culture, lifestyle, and entertainment.
As the second major activation of MTN’s ‘Live It 100’ campaign, this event underscores a bold commitment to encouraging young Nigerians to live life to the fullest of their potential, whether in business, tech, culture, or entertainment.
Central to this immersive experience is the highly anticipated Pitchathon, where 10 standout startups are vying for a total prize pool of ₦5 million.
The participating startups represent a cross-section of Aba’s burgeoning innovation ecosystem, tackling challenges ranging from logistics to artisanal tech.
Among them are Trashverse Recycling Technology Limited, a climate-first recycling solution founded by Charles Ikechukwu; SkillsCircle by Together, an ed-tech platform championed by Ijeoma Irene to empower young professionals in Nigeria; and Poptreaties, a healthy snack alternative founded by Ifeanyichukwu Dominion to curb junk food consumption.
These founders and their peers are showcasing solutions that blend local ingenuity with scalable technological frameworks, highlighting the immense potential of the region’s entrepreneurial spirit.
The pitchathon is judged by three esteemed figures in the African innovation ecosystem: Chiemela Anosike (Founder, Solaris GreenTech Hub), Dr. Chime Chimezie-Uche (Founder, Abia Startup Limited), and Justina Nwokedi (Digital Transformation Specialist).
This competition is designed to spotlight and empower early-stage founders in the city, providing them with a platform to validate their business ideas before investors, consumers, and industry stakeholders.
The prize structure offers ₦2.5 million to the winning startup, ₦1.5 million for the first runner-up, and ₦1 million for the third-place winner.
This Aba edition builds on the success of the Lagos edition, which took place from April 22 to 26 at the National Stadium, Surulere. There, eight startups received a collective ₦45 million in seed funding for solutions ranging from fintech to creative technology.
By bringing this platform to Aba, a city renowned for its industrial and entrepreneurial spirit, organizers aim to deepen access to opportunity and support the next generation of business leaders.
For these 10 startups, the Pitchathon is a vital opportunity to gain visibility, engage with potential partners, and accelerate their growth within a high-density environment of innovation.
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