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1Bn New Unique Mobile Subscribers by 2020 – GSMA

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An additional one billion people will become mobile subscribers over the next five years, according to a major new GSMA report published at Mobile World Congress yesterday.

The new report, ‘The Mobile Economy: 2015’, forecasts that the number of unique mobile subscribers1 will increase from 3.6 billion at the end of 2014 to 4.6 billion by 2020, increasing by four per cent per year (CAGR) over this period. By 2020, almost 60 per cent of the global population will subscribe to mobile services, up from half of the population at the end of 2014.

The study also highlights a rapid migration to 3G/4G mobile broadband networks and rising smartphone adoption, which is fuelling growth in new mobile data services and applications.

As the mobile ecosystem continues to expand in reach and size, the mobile industry is forecast to make an increasing contribution to global GDP, public funding and employment, as well as improving the lives of billions of citizens around the world.

“A decade ago, just one in five of the global population was a mobile subscriber – we have now surpassed the 50 per cent milestone and can look forward to connecting a billion new subscribers over the next five years,” commented Anne Bouverot, director general of the GSMA. “Mobile sits at the heart of a new ecosystem that is uniting the digital and physical worlds, and powering economic growth. At the same time, mobile operators continue to deploy networks to all corners of the globe, connecting unconnected citizens and addressing socio-economic challenges in areas such as digital and financial inclusion, healthcare and education.”

Mobile penetration varies widely by global region. In Europe, nearly 80 per cent of the population were mobile subscribers at the end of 2014, while in Sub-Saharan Africa the figure is only 39 per cent. Global subscriber growth over the next five years will therefore be concentrated in the developing world, driven by the increasing affordability of mobile devices and services and rapidly expanding mobile coverage that serves to connect currently unconnected populations, especially those in rural areas.

The number of global SIM connections2 (excluding M2M connections) is forecast to grow from 7.1 billion in 2014 to 9 billion by 2020. This implies that every unique mobile subscriber will continue to account for roughly 1.8 SIM cards each, on average, during this period.

Cellular M2M connections are forecast to reach 1 billion by 2020, bringing the total number of mobile connections to 10 billion by this point.

Rapid Migration to Mobile Broadband and Smartphones

The period out to 2020 will see a rapid migration to mobile broadband technology as 3G/4G network availability and affordability increases.

Mobile broadband accounted for 40 per cent of SIM connections in 2014, but will increase to almost 70 per cent of the total by 2020 as subscribers migrate away from 2G networks and devices.

As well as expanding 3G/4G coverage reach, this trend is being driven by the rising number of smartphone connections3. Smartphones accounted for 37 per cent of SIM connections in 2014, a figure forecast to rise to 65 per cent by 2020.

The smartphone adoption rate is already at 60 per cent in the developed world, ranging from 51 per cent of SIM connections in Europe to 70 per cent in North America.

The developing world will lead smartphone growth over the next five years as the average selling price of smartphones continues to decline, adding a further 2.9 billion smartphone connections by 2020.

Supporting Growth with Investment
The increasing use of mobile broadband-enabled smartphones is fuelling an explosion in mobile data traffic. According to Cisco4, global mobile data volumes are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 57 per cent through to 2019, reaching 24,314 petabytes per month by that point, a result of rising on-demand video consumption via mobile devices.

Mobile operators are making significant investments in next-generation mobile networks to meet capacity demands and expand coverage reach.

In 2014, mobile operators invested around US$216 billion in capital expenditure (Capex), a nine per cent year-on-year increase. Investment levels are forecast to reach a cumulative US$1.4 trillion in the six years from 2015 through to 2020.

A Growing Contributor to The Global Economy
The mobile industry is a cornerstone of the global economy. In 2014, the mobile industry contributed US$3 trillion to the world’s economy, equivalent to 3.8 per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP)5.

By 2020, it is estimated that the contribution from the industry will increase to US$3.9 trillion, representing 4.2 per cent of projected global GDP by this point.

The mobile industry directly employed 12.8 million people globally in 2014 and indirectly supported a further 11.8 million jobs, bringing the total to 24.6 million.

 By 2020, this figure is forecast to reach 28.7 million, with 15.3 million men and women directly employed by the industry.

Even without factoring in spectrum fees – which generated more than US$14 billion in revenue for governments worldwide last year – it is estimated that the mobile industry contributed US$411 billion to public finances in 2014 via taxation and social security contributions.

This public funding contribution is forecast to rise to US$465 billion by 2020.

“Operators require a supportive regulatory framework in order to deliver this new digital ecosystem being built on mobile broadband networks, smartphones and other connected devices,” added Bouverot.

“Our new report published today includes a number of steps that policymakers can take to stimulate investment, competition and innovation in the mobile-powered digital economy, including reducing constraints on market-driven restructuring; ensuring operators have access to sufficient spectrum; and supporting operator efforts to expand mobile network coverage into rural areas in a sustainable way.”


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ATCON Offers Solutions to Fibre Cable Cuts in Telecom Industry

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Association of Telecommunication Companies Of Nigeria (ATCON) has highlighted fibre cuts as a major stumbling block to the Nigerian telecom sector’s growth and affirmed its readiness to take strategic measures to tackle submarine fibre disruption in the country.

ATCON Offers Solutions to Fibre Cable Cuts in Telecom Industry

Tony Emoekpere, president of ATCON, at the first edition of ATCON’s Critical Conversation Breakfast Meeting held in Lagos with the theme: ‘the Direct And Indirect Cause And Impact Of Metro, Terrestrial And Submarine Fibre Disruptions (Cuts)–Short, Medium And Long Term Sustainable Solutions’, stated that, operators cannot continue to pay lip service to issues and challenges that have constituted stumbling block to the telecom sector growth.

The president recall that few months ago, there was a reported case of submarine cuts which significantly impacted Nigeria and some African countries, adding that, “The incidences of Metro, Terrestrial and Submarine Fibre Disruptions have become a recurring decimal which must be addressed by relevant agencies at all levels of government. Our members have had to pay a substantial amount of money to have all these disruptions fixed and this is impacting on their operational expenses which should not be if the perpetrators are brought to book.”

On advocacy, the president said ATCON is seeking ways going forward, adding that ducts should be built when new roads are being constructed. “There is a need to enforce and implement the provision in the Nigeria National Broadband Band Plan 2020-2025 which states that NCC should have a desk officer in each state of the Federation who is expected to be in charge of the fiber network in order to minimize Fiber cuts during roads construction,” he recommended.

The president averred that the telecom sector has been reported to contribute over 14 per cent to the nation’s GDP, adding that, the sector could have done much better if issues like fiber disruption which has constituted a threat to the manifestation of its inherent potentials, is dealt with.

Emoekpere however stressed the need for more collaboration between telecoms operators and government, with developers and road contractors to mitigate the challenges of fiber cuts.

“There must be compensation for fibre cable cuts. Training and awareness creation on the importance of fibre cable and the danger and negative impact of fibre cable cut, cannot be overemphasised. The federal government should declare telecoms assets as Critical National Infrastructure (CNI).

“Government should come up with policies like ‘Dig Once Policy’ for the implementation of fibre laying to avoid operators damaging cables of other operators during cable laying. There must be a clear database of government agencies giving approvals for road construction to enable telecom companies to have an idea of who they are dealing with as well as the need to have a status update on task responsibilities of ATCON for a follow-up of ATCON activities,” he advocated.

In the same vein, Lekan Balogun, CEO of NetAccess, said, the major causes of fibre cable cut includes Govt/Private Contractors, Man made, planning and Design and Natural causes, while stressing that, there is need for constant engagement between ATCON members, the government and developers.

Balogun proposed short, medium and long term recommendations to forestall fibre cuts, adding that the use of protective materials like metals rather than plastics will help protect the cables from unwanted cuts.

Credit: Leadership


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Starlink now 3rd Largest ISP in Nigeria – NCC

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Starlink, Elon Musk’s Internet company, has emerged as Nigeria’s third-largest Internet Service Provider (ISP) with 23,897 subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to latest ISP data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on Monday.

Starlink now 3rd Largest ISP in Nigeria – NCC

According to the NCC data, Starlink’s active customers in Nigeria surged 113 per cent in Q4 2023, from 11,207 customers in the previous quarter, establishing it as one of the leading ISPs in the country.

Spectranet, one of the oldest ISPs in the country, maintained its top position in the market with 113,869 active customers.

FiberOne followed in second place with 27,000 active users at the end of 2023.

ISPs are different from mobile Internet providers, like the telcos such as MTN, Airtel, etc.

They provide Internet through various wired technologies, such as DSL, cable, fibre-optic, or satellite connections. They use fixed infrastructure that requires a physical connection to the home or business.

Starlink launched its services in Nigeria in January 2023, becoming the first African country to receive the service, more than 20 months after SpaceX met with the NCC to outline their deployment plans.

Meanwhile, Spectranet, one of the oldest ISPs in the country, maintained its top position in the market with 113,869 active customers.

FiberOne followed in second place with 27,000 active users at the end of 2023.

ISPs are different from mobile Internet providers, like the telcos such as MTN, Airtel, etc.

They provide Internet through various wired technologies, such as DSL, cable, fibre-optic, or satellite connections.

They use fixed infrastructure that requires a physical connection to the home or business.

Starlink launched its services in Nigeria in January 2023, becoming the first African country to receive the service, more than 20 months after SpaceX met with the NCC to outline their deployment plans.

As of September 2023, just 8 months after its launch, Starlink had amassed 11,207 active subscribers in Nigeria, making it the fourth largest ISP in the country.


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Airtel Africa Completes $550m Bond Repayment

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Airtel Africa, telecommunications and mobile money services provider, has revealed that its subsidiary, Bharti Airtel International (Netherlands) B.V., has repaid in full its $550m bond maturing Monday.

Airtel Africa Completes $550m Bond Repayment

 

This was disclosed in a corporate filing with the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NDX) signed by G Simon O’Hara, group company secretary, on Monday.

With this repayment, the company said that it had achieved a zero-debt position at the HoldCo.

The $550m bond was 5.35 per cent Guaranteed Senior Notes.

“This bond repayment of $550m has been made exclusively out of cash reserves at the holding company and is a continuation of its strategy to reduce external foreign currency debt. At the time of the IPO in June 2019, the group had $2,719m of external debt at HoldCo which resulted in significant exposure to currency fluctuations and the reliance on upstreaming funds to cover both interest costs and the principal repayment.
“Through consistent execution of its strategy supporting strong free cash flow generation, and continued upstreaming success, the group has been reducing Holdco debt over the past few years and has now reached the significant milestone of a zero-debt position at HoldCo. The current leverage and capital structure is a reflection of the Group’s successful capital allocation strategy that has been in place since our IPO, and it will aim to continue reducing foreign currency debt obligations across its OpCo’s,” part of the statement from the telecoms provider said.


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