E-Financial
FXTM Hints on Emerging Currency Outlook 2016

The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.
The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.
The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.
The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.
The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.
Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.
From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.
From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.
The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.
Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.
The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.
This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.
If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.
The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).
Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.
While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption.
As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.
While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.
The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes.
Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.
It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.
As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.
Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.
I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.
Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.
The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.
It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.
However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.
Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
E-Financial
FG Proposes Africa-Wide Payment Card without Conversion through US Dollar

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, has said that Africa’s payment ecosystem should move beyond traditional systems that rely on third-party currencies for cross-border transactions, noting that such arrangements increase costs and create inefficiencies.

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy
To this end, he proposed the development of an Africa-wide payment card that would enable direct transactions between African currencies without requiring conversion through the United States dollar or other intermediary currencies, as part of efforts to deepen intra-African trade and reduce transaction costs.
Oyedele, made the proposal while receiving a delegation from Mastercard in Abuja.
Currently, most card payments between African countries are routed through currencies such as the U.S. dollar. For instance, when a Nigerian cardholder makes a purchase in Ghana, the transaction is often converted from Ghanaian cedis to U.S. dollars before being converted into naira, attracting additional costs through multiple exchange-rate conversions.
Speaking during the meeting, the minister urged Mastercard to support the creation of a payment system that allows direct settlements between African currencies.
“We hope that, for example, we have a payment card that you can use to pay from naira to Kenyan shillings, to South African rand, without a third currency. And we know you can make it possible,” Oyedele said.
He said eliminating intermediary currencies would improve payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs and strengthen economic integration across the continent, particularly under the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The minister also called on Mastercard to expand access to credit cards in Nigeria, describing consumer credit penetration as low even among top public officials and high-income earners.
“Based on my own personal experience, one of the areas where we hope you will take the lead is just making credit cards available to Nigerians.
It is difficult, even for someone at my level, to get a credit card,” he said.
While acknowledging the progress made by Nigeria’s financial technology sector, Oyedele said there remains significant room for growth and innovation.
He noted that Nigeria hosts five of Africa’s nine fintech unicorns, reflecting the country’s growing prominence in the continent’s digital finance landscape.
“Our fintech sector is quite developed, but we know that we can do much better. We can be much bigger,” he said.
“It is interesting to know that Africa has nine unicorns, and five of them are in Nigeria. So we know that the possibilities are even bigger.”
Oyedele assured investors and fintech operators of the government’s commitment to maintaining policy consistency and providing regulatory support to encourage further investment and expansion.
“We welcome you to Nigeria. We want you to do more, and we are willing, from the government’s side, to work with you,” he added.
The proposal comes amid expectations of rapid growth in Africa’s cross-border payments market over the next decade. Industry reports project the market will expand significantly as fintech adoption rises, mobile money usage grows, and intra-African trade increases under AfCFTA.
Despite the growth prospects, stakeholders say cross-border payments across Africa continue to face challenges including fragmented financial systems, multiple currency conversions, high transaction costs and settlement inefficiencies.
E-Financial
Providus, Unity Bank Begin Integration Phase after Supreme Court Nod

The merger between Providus Bank and Unity Bank has entered the integration phase following the completion of all legal and regulatory requirements, setting the stage for the emergence of ProvidusUnity Bank Limited.

Recall that the Supreme Court upheld the merger scheme, ordering all of Unity Bank’s assets and liabilities to be transferred to Providus Bank.
The enlarged institution operates as a national commercial bank.
Providus Bank in a statement to customers formally notified them of the announced the successful completion of the legal process backing the merger and assured them that banking operations would remain seamless throughout the integration period.
“We are pleased to announce the final court sanction of the merger between ProvidusBank and Unity Bank. This business combination is set to create a strong institution with broader national reach, deeper capabilities and an even greater commitment to delivering exceptional banking experiences to you,” the bank stated.
According to the bank, the merger marks a significant milestone that will strengthen its capacity to serve customers through improved access to banking services, enhanced technology infrastructure, stronger digital capabilities and expanded product offerings.
“This merger represents an important milestone in our journey and positions us to serve you better through expanded access, enhanced technology infrastructure, improved digital capabilities, improved product offerings, and a wider network of service channels across Nigeria,” the bank said.
Providus Bank also assured customers that the transition would not affect their banking relationship, stressing that all accounts and existing service channels would remain fully operational during the integration process.
“Your banking relationship remains secure and uninterrupted,” the bank assured customers, adding that they would continue to enjoy access to their accounts and banking services through existing channels while integration activities progress.
The bank further noted that customers should expect improved service delivery arising from the merger, supported by stronger capabilities and a wider operational footprint across the country. It added that any actions required from customers during the transition would be communicated clearly and in advance.
Highlighting the strategic importance of the combination, the bank said the next phase of its evolution is geared towards building a stronger institution capable of supporting economic growth while maintaining high service standards.
“This next chapter reflects our commitment to building a stronger institution for customers, supporting economic growth and continuing to deliver the service standards you expect from us,” it stated.
E-Financial
EFCC, CAC Raise Concerns over Unregistered PoS Operators

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) have expressed concern over the growing activities of unregistered Point of Sale (POS) operators and warned that they pose significant risks to businesses, the financial system and national security.

The concern was raised on Thursday in Abuja when Senator Ibrahim Adah, chairman of the CAC Board, led a delegation of the commission’s management staff on a courtesy visit to Mr Ola Olukoyede, executive chairman of the EFCC, at the anti-graft agency’s headquarters.
Adah disclosed that only about 20 per cent of POS operators in Nigeria are currently registered with the CAC, describing the situation as a violation of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020 and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Agent Banking Regulations 2026, which require businesses operating under business names to be duly registered.
He appealed for stronger collaboration between both agencies to enforce compliance and develop a reliable database of POS operators for law enforcement purposes.
According to him, emerging evidence indicates that criminal proceeds, including ransom payments from kidnapping activities, are sometimes channelled through POS terminals.
“We seek closer cooperation in developing a reliable database of POS operators for use by the EFCC and other law enforcement agencies,” Adah said.
He noted that the visit was part of efforts to strengthen partnerships with institutions whose mandates intersect with that of the CAC, particularly in combating financial crimes.
The CAC chairman stressed that the two agencies could not effectively tackle economic and financial crimes in isolation, especially those involving corporate entities.
“When companies are misused for fraud or money laundering, the mandates of both institutions are directly affected. Neither of the two agencies can therefore fight and win the war against economic and financial offences if we work alone,” he said.
Adah identified data and intelligence sharing, public sensitisation on financial risks, and staff capacity building as critical areas for deeper collaboration, reaffirming the CAC’s commitment to protecting the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system.
Responding, Olukoyede described the activities of unregulated POS operators as a major challenge to the country’s financial ecosystem.
“If you do not regulate the activities of such key players, you will be having major problems and challenges within your financial ecosystem,” he said.
The EFCC chairman assured the CAC of the commission’s readiness to strengthen cooperation in tackling economic crimes and promoting regulatory compliance.
He described the CAC as the gateway to economic growth in Nigeria, noting that foreign investors often have their first engagement with the country through the commission.
Olukoyede revealed that the EFCC had established a dedicated desk to handle matters relating to the CAC and disclosed that the commission was currently investigating about 200 companies referred to it by the corporate regulator.
“As a matter of fact, I think we have about 200 companies that you forwarded to us that we are currently investigating and we have made reasonable progress.
“We have made very interesting discoveries, which will help you when you lay your hands on the report,” he said.
He added that many public corruption cases handled by the EFCC involve procurement and contract fraud perpetrated through companies registered by the CAC.
Olukoyede also underscored the need for both agencies to address insider-related challenges and improve internal accountability mechanisms.
On information sharing, he directed officials of both organisations to review and update their existing Memorandum of Understanding to reflect current realities, particularly regarding beneficial ownership information and data protection.
The renewed partnership, according to both agencies, is aimed at deepening corporate compliance, enhancing transparency and safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system.
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