E-Financial
FXTM Hints on Emerging Currency Outlook 2016
The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.
The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.
The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.
The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.
The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.
Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.
From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.
From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.
The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.
Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.
The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.
This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.
If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.
The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).
Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.
While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption.
As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.
While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.
The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes.
Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.
It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.
As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.
Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.
I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.
Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.
The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.
It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.
However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.
Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
Nigeria Insurance Deposit Corporation (NDIC) has guaranteed customers of insured commercial banks prompt recovery of their deposits in the event of risk liability or liquidation.
In addition, the corporation assured depositors of its statutory mandate, which includes supervising banks for risk assessment, ensuring ethical standards, and enhancing financial stability in the country.
Mrs Emily Osuji, executive director, Corporate Services, NDIC, gave the assurance during a Stakeholders Town Hall Meeting on customer protection regarding bank charges and deposits in Kano.
Mrs Osuji posited that the NDIC has, in recent times, demonstrated a strong commitment to protecting the hard-earned savings of Nigerians and sustaining confidence in the banking system.
She cited the cases of defunct Heritage Bank Limited, Union Homes Plc and Aso Savings and Loans Plc, where depositors received their deposits promptly after meeting the relevant requirements.
The NDIC boss, however, reminded customers to link their Bank Verification Number (BVN) as a unique identifier to locate their alternate accounts, where their claims will be transferred.
The executive director affirmed that NDIC has expanded coverage to protect about 99 per cent of depositors in Nigeria, a deliberate policy aimed at protecting small savers, promoting financial inclusion, and enhancing trust in the banking sector.
She said, “The corporation fulfils its role through its core mandates of deposit guarantee, bank supervision, distress resolution and bank liquidation, all of which are geared towards protecting the hard-earned savings of Nigerians and sustaining confidence in the banking system.
“Our strapline, ‘Protecting your bank deposits!’, is more than mere words for us. We stand by this statement as a firm commitment to our mandate of ensuring that depositors have access to their hard-earned savings in the event of bank failure.
“This is a critical responsibility that we do not take lightly. This is especially so in times of financial uncertainty and distress, with the NDIC standing as a pillar of safety and reassurance for depositors, particularly the most vulnerable.”
Speaking on the concept of stakeholder engagement, Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs, said the corporation was compelled to provide clarity, build trust and strengthen depositor confidence amid misconceptions.
Gambo noted that the recent revocation of the operating licences of some banks by the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN) and the current public discourse on banks’ recapitalisation efforts have reinforced the need for sustained stakeholder engagement.
She reminded that sustained awareness is pertinent to dust, given already heightened public interest and featured public confidence in the financial institutions.
“NDIC’s last Public Awareness Survey highlighted the need to enhance interpersonal communication channels to improve public understanding of deposit insurance. It is against this backdrop that the Stakeholders’ Town Hall Meetings were conceived as a structured, interactive platform for dialogue, education and feedback,” Gambo noted.
The Central Bank of Nigeria in its 2025 Fintech Policy Insight Report, has raised concern over Nigeria’s fintech sector heavily dependent on foreign investment, exposing it to swings in global markets.
The report said the sector has shown resilience despite global economic pressures, but warned that reliance on external capital leaves it vulnerable to market fluctuations.
It would be recalled that startups in the country raised $520m in equity funding in 2024, down from about $747m in 2019, when Nigeria captured roughly 37 per cent of all African startup investment.
This performance, amid significant global macroeconomic gyrations, underscores Nigeria’s position as a key hub for financial innovation. The sharp rise in interest rates in advanced economies during 2022 contributed to a slowdown in venture capital funding.
“These dynamics highlight the importance of developing domestic funding avenues, such as leveraging Nigeria’s capital markets, to reduce currency risk and sustain fintech growth,” the apex bank stated.
Olayemi Cardoso, CBN Governor, said Nigeria is undergoing a rapid and significant financial evolution. Over the past decade, the nation’s fintech landscape has grown from a handful of startups into one of Africa’s most vibrant innovation ecosystems.
“Even amid global economic headwinds, Nigerian fintech firms continued to attract investment and drive change. Today, with improved stability of our currency and domestic economy, it is clearer than ever that financial innovation can advance inclusion at scale,” the executive commented on the report.
In addition to funding, the central bank underscored Nigeria’s continued leadership in digital financial infrastructure. More than 25 per cent of all electronic transactions in Africa’s most populous nation are processed via real-time payment channels, with close to 11 billion transactions processed in 2024, up from five billion in 2022. The report described Nigeria’s instant payments platform, NIBSS NIP, as among the most mature and widely adopted globally.
The report also mentioned the need to strengthen system integrity and reputation, pointing to compliance reforms, anti-money laundering supervision, and consumer protection measures as key priorities for sustaining investor confidence.
By focusing on domestic funding, regulatory modernisation, and innovation infrastructure, the CBN aims to position Nigeria not only as a fintech front-runner but also as a rule-setter whose regulatory lessons are relevant to peer emerging and high-growth economies globally, the central bank said.
Stakeholders surveyed by the CBN also cited compliance costs as a significant challenge to innovation. According to the report, 87.5 per cent of respondents said that the cost of meeting regulatory and risk requirements significantly impacts their capacity to innovate, while delays in product approvals and regulatory timelines also remain major bottlenecks.
The report noted that 62.5 per cent of fintech firms plan to expand regionally, and there is strong support for regulatory pass-porting frameworks to enable compliant expansion into other African markets. However, the CBN warns that such cross-border growth requires a stable funding base and coordinated regulation.
After a few years abroad, I returned to Nigeria and faced a dilemma. Let me tell you all about it.
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The plan was simple. Settle down and get my life on track. I’d sorted the job, and I had my person. But then came my dilemma. Money!. This doesn’t mean I was short of it or had too much of it. The real issue is where to actually keep and manage it in this country with daily dramatic happenings. With just two weeks left before I resumed at my new workplace, I had no time for long queues, endless paperwork, or the classic “Nigeria bank stress.” So, I needed an account, and I needed it fast.
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