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FXTM Hints on Emerging Currency Outlook 2016

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The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.

The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.

The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.

The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.

The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.

Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.

From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.

From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.

The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.

Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.

The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.

This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.

If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.

The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).

Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.

While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption. 

As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.

While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.

The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes. 

Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.

It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.

As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.

Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.

I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.

Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.

The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.

It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.

However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.

Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
 


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Meet Top Five Tech-Driven Banks and Their Overseers

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With the rapid rate of technological change and shifting customer demands, financial institutions in Nigeria have been looking to keep up with innovation and modernise their technology.

Meet Top Five Tech-Driven Banks and Their Overseers

Nigeira CommunicatiosWeek in this report evaluates top five money deposit banks that have successfully integrated technology to enhance customer experience.

This is based on 2025 and early 2026 industry reports, ranks in no particular order.

Despite variations in size and market, these bank share a foundational set of core characteristics and technologies designed to ensure stability, security, and real-time functionality.

First Bank

First Bank of Nigeria leverages technology to drive digital transformation through its FirstMobile app, *894# USSD banking, and automated Digital Xperience Centres (DXC) featuring humanoid robots, AI, and self-service kiosks.

With over 80 percent of transactions handled digitally, the bank focuses on AI-driven customer support, secure card issuance in under three minutes, and cloud-based ERP.

The bank has heavily invested in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to transition from a traditional institution into a leading digital bank, adopting the mantra “a tech company offering banking services”.

According to a FirstBank leadership report, Callistus Obetta, group executive, technology, Digital Innovation & Services, is overseeing the bank’s IT operations.

He joined First Bank in 2016 from Standard Chartered Bank.

In his role at First Bank, he has overall responsibility for strategy formulation and leading the team charged with transforming and operating the technology platforms and banking services that power the bank and its subsidiaries.

Zenith Bank

Another heavy investor in technology is Zenith Bank and driving its digital banking, focusing on AI, cybersecurity, and fintech innovation through its annual Tech Fair and Zecathon, with a recent major IT infrastructure upgrade improving service delivery.

Key digital solutions include the *966# E-banking service, a mobile app, and the XPath digital platform.

The bank has recently completed a significant IT infrastructure migration to a new, more robust operating system to enhance service quality.

Zenith Bank offers XPath for digitizing payment collection across branches.

The bank is currently overhauling its core banking systems, implementing software from providers like Misys to modernize frontend and backend operations across its African and UK branches.

Akin Ogunranti leads the Bank’s technology group, digital transformation, and strategic technology initiatives.

Ogunranti is a seasoned banker with over 30 years of experience, joining Zenith Bank in 2004.

He previously managed the Bank’s relationships with Multilateral Institutions and Export Credit Agencies, and served as Group Head for Power & Infrastructure, Oil & Gas, and Structured Trade & Project Finance.

He currently oversees Corporate Banking, Oil & Gas, and the Bank’s Business portfolios across Lagos (Public Sector, Apapa, Isolo and Ilupeju), South-West, and South-South regions.m

Fidelity Bank

Fidelity Bank leverages digital technology to enhance banking convenience, offering solutions like Cardless ATM withdrawals, the *770# instant banking code, and the Ivy AI chatbot.

Their technology stack includes secured online banking, NQR scan-to-pay, and advanced digital tools for SME management and corporate credit lending.

Fidelity Online Banking and a Mobile App are top notches as they  support NQR scan-to-pay.

The *770# Instant Banking service works on all phones without data.

The bank also offers Virtus for real-time transaction monitoring and Corporate Online Banking (CONB) for bulk payments.

Fidelity utilizes SSL encryption, token technology, and adheres to ISO 27001 and PCIDSS security standards.

With mobile technology and AI-driven solutions, Fidelity Bank provides cost-effective financial access to both banked and unbanked customers.

Stanley Chiedoziem Amuchie, Executive Director, Chief Operations and Information Officer is leading the Bank’s IT operations.

Amuchie holds a record of impressive multi- functional work experience spanning banking, audit, risk management, corporate governance, quality control, operations and information technology, strategy, financial control, business and financial advisory, accounting, general management, business development and consulting, with over 23 years of experience in the banking and financial services industry.

He joined Zenith Bank Plc and enjoyed a distinguished career spanning over 18 years which culminated in his appointment as Group Chief Financial Officer in July 2015 and Group Zonal Head in June 2018, a position he held until his exit in October 2018.

While at Zenith Bank, Stanley also served as a Non-Executive Director on the Boards of Zenith Trustees Limited, Zenith Bureau De Change Limited, Zenith Nominees Limited and was Chairman of the Board of Directors of Zenith Securities Limited.

Between April 2019 and February 2021, Stanley was Chief Technical Consultant at Mint Financial Technologies Limited (now Mintyn Bank, a digital bank).

United Bank for Africa

United Bank for Africa (UBA) also leverages technology to drive digital banking across 20 African countries and globally, serving over 45 million customers.

Key technology banking services include the UBA Mobile App, Leo AI Chatbot, and *919# USSD banking, enabling account opening, transfers, bill payments, and loans.

UBA focuses on Fintech partnerships to enhance AI-powered customer engagement and digital payments.

UBA prioritizes collaborations with fintech companies to accelerate financial inclusion and enhance digital payment infrastructure.

Emmanuel Lamptey is the key executive overseeing technology and digital transformation at UBA.

Lamptey, who serves as the Executive Director, Digital Banking, has 25 years of experience in retail banking, corporate banking, asset management, brokerage, insurance, and microfinance.

His background allows him to combine financial expertise with a digital vision.

TAJBank

TAJBank is a leading Nigerian non-interest (Islamic) bank leveraging technology for digital banking, featuring the TAJWAY app for secure, 24/7 transactions.

The bank uses the SBS Core Amplitude Up banking platform for seamless digital services, including account opening, instant transfers, bills payment, and agency banking.

It offers secure, user-friendly app offering card management, budget planning, and high-frequency transfers available on the App Store and Google Play.

Customers can open accounts through the app or website without visiting a branch.

Its offers USSD Banking and *898# code for mobile transactions can be donewithout internet connectivity.

TAJBank’s technological focus supports its goal of being a leading digital non-interest bank in Nigeria by providing seamless, ethical banking solutions.

Sherif Idi, Co-Founder/Executive Director, is actively involved in the bank’s operational trajectory and growth, often commenting on the bank’s investment in technology, human capital, and expansion strategies.

He oversee the bank’s growth-driven, tech-enabled, and innovative initiatives.

With 21 years career experience in the banking sector, Idi has worked in every unit of banking, from operations manager to marketing and customer service, risk management, branch manager and group head, carving a niche for himself.

 


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EFCC Warns Fintech Firms over Rising Fraud, Ransom Payments

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Mr. Ola Olukoyede, chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has called on financial technology companies in Nigeria to strengthen their systems and safeguard their platforms against exploitation by fraudsters and other criminal actors.

EFCC Warns Fintech Firms over Rising Fraud, Ransom Payments

Olukoyede made the call yesterday in Abuja during an industry engagement meeting with chief executive officers of fintech companies held at the EFCC headquarters.

He commended the fintech sector for driving financial inclusion and innovation in the country, noting that their platforms have expanded access to financial services.

However, he warned that the same digital space has increasingly been exploited by fraudsters.

According to him, continuous engagement between the EFCC and fintech operators is necessary to identify vulnerabilities and block loopholes being used for financial crimes.

“The opportunities you have created have also given criminals the opportunity to perpetrate crimes,” he said, adding that regular collaboration would help strengthen regulatory safeguards and protect legitimate business operations.

Olukoyede urged fintech operators to protect the integrity of their businesses, stressing that reputation remains a critical asset in the financial sector.

He warned that a single compromised transaction could damage years of trust-building.

He also advocated stronger intelligence sharing and cooperation between both parties, noting that such collaboration would enhance the EFCC’s mandate in tackling financial crimes.

On security concerns, the EFCC chairman raised alarm over the use of fintech and POS channels for ransom payments linked to terrorism financing.

He called for stricter compliance with Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements and improved monitoring of suspicious transactions.

“We have seen that criminals exploit your space, especially in areas involving ransom payments,” he said, urging the industry to work with regulators to close existing loopholes.

The meeting also featured discussions on regulatory and operational challenges in the fintech sector, with both sides exploring measures aimed at strengthening compliance and reducing fraud risks.


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New CBN’s BVN Rules Starts Today

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will from today start enforcing the new Bank Verification Number (BVN) regulations, in a major move aimed at tightening banking security and reducing rising cases of fraud across the financial system.

New CBN’s BVN Rules Starts Today

Key changes include restricting phone number changes to once in a lifetime, limiting banking apps to one device, and capping transactions on new devices to \(\text{₦}20,000\) for the first 24 hours.

Bank customers need to know these:

One of the major highlights of the policy is the restriction on updating BVN-linked phone numbers.

Customers will now be allowed to change the phone number attached to their BVN only once in their lifetime.

Fraudsters often take over accounts by changing phone numbers through SIM swap tricks. Limiting changes helps reduce that risk.

Make sure the BVN number you use is one you plan to keep for a long time. If you ever need to change it, do so carefully because you won’t get another chance.

Your account can be temporarily restricted for checks

Banks are now authorised to place suspicious BVNs on a 24-hour watchlist.

During this period, affected accounts may be temporarily restricted while investigations and identity verification are carried out.

If your bank notices unusual activity, your account may be flagged.

Transactions could be delayed or restricted while the bank confirms that you are the one making them.

BVN registration is now strictly for adults

Another key update is the introduction of an age restriction.

Only individuals aged 18 and above can independently register for a BVN.

Minors will no longer be able to obtain standalone BVNs, except through structured, guardian-linked arrangements approved by financial institutions.

You can only use your banking app on one device

The apex bank has also introduced a one-device-per-app rule.

This means customers can only use their banking app on one device at a time.

Logging in on a new phone will automatically log out the previous device.

If you switch to a new device, your transactions will be limited to ₦20,000 for the first 24 hours.

The policy is designed to reduce unauthorised access and improve identity verification, making it harder for fraudsters to operate using cloned devices or stolen login details.

BVN services are now limited to authorised channels

Access to BVN-related services is now more controlled.

Only CBN-approved banks and financial institutions can handle BVN updates or issues.

Avoid using third-party apps or unofficial agents. Always go through your bank for any BVN-related request.

 


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