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FXTM: Dollar Sensitivity Seizes Centre Stage

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Global stocks descended deeper into the abyss in the first trading week of May following the tepid Chinese manufacturing data and slash in Europe’s growth outlook that renewed concerns about the health of the global economy.

European equities were left depressed with the FTSE100 attracting most of the headline attention yesterday after the major index dropped to its lowest level in around three weeks.

The bearish contagion from Europe encouraged investors to scatter away from riskier assets and this consequently punished American markets that also closed negative.

With expectations rapidly diminishing over further central bank interventions by the BoJ, Asian markets could remain pressured for an extended period as an appreciating Yen weighs heavily on the Nikkei.

Investors should keep in mind that confidence towards the global economy is strikingly low and with oil prices almost puppeteering the movements in the stock markets, further declines could be pending in the near term.

FTSE100 Spotlight
The elevated concerns over the health of the global economy complimented with the incessant declines in oil prices have soured investor risk appetite, consequently leaving the FTSE100 vulnerable to further losses.

This index has been weighed down by a variety of different factors with this including: mining stocks being dragged lower, a resumption of concerns over economic momentum in China following factory activity shrinking in April, and an unexpected UK Manufacturing PMI contraction.

These attributes combined have provided a foundation for bearish investors to install a heavy round of selling with prices edging towards 6150.

From a technical standpoint, this index is under pressure on the daily timeframe.

Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support at 6200 could transform into a dynamic resistance that could open a path to 6150.

Dollar Trades with Fragility
The dimming expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US rates in Q2 have provided a platform for bearish investors to ruthlessly attack the Dollar Index to levels not seen since January 2015, below 92.00.

Sentiment is undeniably bearish towards the Dollar, and with domestic data in the United States pointing to further weakness in the economy, Dollar vulnerability could remain the dominant theme in the global currency markets.

With the NFP looming this week, Dollar sensitivity could heighten as market participants ponder on the likelihood of a figure that exceeds expectations.

With global developments constantly exposing the US economy to downside risks, it seems likely that a positive NFP may do little to boost optimism over another US rate hike in 2016.

All eyes should remain on the Dollar in May as the Dollar Index approaches a major support level that if breached below, could spell an even deeper correction lower for the Dollar.

The potential for another period of extended weakness in the Dollar is technically looking strong at present from a technical and fundamental perspective.

If even a positive NFP report leads to a sudden surge in expectations over a possible US rate hike, the fundamentals disagree and as such could provide a relief rally for bearish investors to exploit.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar is bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD also trades to the downside. If prices can breach the weekly support at 92.50 then the flood gates could be open for a steeper decline towards 90.00

BoJ Feeling the Heat
Investors were left bewildered last week following the Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to leave monetary policy measures unchanged despite the economy wheezing for further central bank intervention. The disappointment from the BoJ’s inaction triggered a sharp appreciation in the Yen, which caused the USDJPY to plummet to 18-month lows.

Falling commodity prices have left Japan under intense pressure while an appreciating Yen continues to erode the nation’s export competitiveness, consequently rekindling fears of deflationary woes.

Expectations are swiftly fading over further interventions by the BoJ and this could spell more gains for the Yen which may simply punish the nation that is already entangled in a losing battle with falling inflation.

From a technical standpoint, the USDJPY is extremely bearish and with Yen strength becoming a dominant theme in the currency markets, prices could decline towards 105.00. This momentum may likely take the USDJPY towards 105.00 in the medium term. If prices decide to bounce, then previous support at 107.50 could become a dynamic resistance for a decline towards 105.00.

GBPUSD Plummets as Brexit Camp Leads
The Sterling/Dollar tumbled with force during trading on Tuesday after a poll which displayed the Brexit camp as leading renewed a wave of jitters that haunted investor attraction towards the Sterling. This decline was complimented with the unexpected contraction in the UK manufacturing PMI that rekindled fears over the health of the UK economy.

With UK data repeatedly following a tepid path, expectations over the BoE hiking UK rates have declined considerably and such has offered a platform for bears to attack. Sentiment is heavily bearish towards the pound and prices could be poised to decline towards 1.44 if the 1.45 support is breached.

From a technical standpoint, the candlesticks are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the upside. Sterling bears simply need to exploit the window of weakness below 1.45 to reclaim some control under 1.44.

WTI Bulls Struggle Below $46.50
WTI Crude found resistance at $46.50 during trading this week as news dispersed of OPEC production output nearing record highs in April, which renewed fears over the excessive supply in the saturated markets.

It is becoming increasingly clear that WTI is fundamentally bearish and with expectations rapidly retracting over any production cuts, bears could attack prices back towards $41.40.

While from a technical standpoint prices are bullish on the daily timeframe, bears only need a window of weakness to send this unstable tower crashing back down.

If crude oil inventories have risen in today’s report then this could be the first catalyst needed for WTI crude bears to send prices lower.

From a technical standpoint, there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD also trades to the upside. A breakdown below $44 could open the gates to $41.40 and potentially lower. While these short term gains are impressive, the fundamentals continue to signal to the downside and such should keep investors diligent.

Gold Regains Allure
Gold edged closer to a major resistance around $1305 this trading week following the explosive mixture of Dollar weakness and steep declines in equity markets that boosted investor attraction to safe haven assets.

We remain fundamentally bullish on Gold and Dollar weakness may provide a platform for bullish investors to install another heavy round of buying momentum.

With concerns over slowing global growth and fading expectations over the Fed raising US rates in Q2 magnifying the metal’s allure, prices could be poised for further inclines. Although Gold has descended back towards $1280, this correction could provide a platform for bulls to send the metal back towards $1305 and potentially higher.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. Previous support at $1270 could encourage buyers to send Gold prices back towards $1305.

The Article is the opinion of Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 


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E-Financial

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the marketing and promotion of a purported initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE,.

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

It further warned that no application for such offer has been filed with or approved by the regulator.

In a public notice issued on Tuesday, the Commission said it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.

The SEC expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the Commission.

According to the regulator, “No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the Commission.”

The Commission added that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”

It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”

Consequently, the Commission directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.

The SEC ordered them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”

It also directed operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorized marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The Commission warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.

Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the Commission through its official channels.”

It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the Commission’s approval.”

The Commission assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.


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Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

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Fidelity Bank Plc has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda through capacity building and export development, as it hosted the 19th edition of its Export Management Programme (EMP) at the Lagos Business School (LBS), Ajah, Lagos recently.

Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

L-R: Relationship Manager, Fidelity Bank Plc, Murtala Muhammed Road Branch, Kano, Victor Ngwu; Export Management Programme (EMP 19) participant, Abayomi Adewuyi; Facilitator, Gemma Ejiofor; Senior Fellow and Head, Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Mgt., Lagos Business School (LBS), Dr. Uche Attoh; Director, Export Management Programme, LBS, Prof. Frank Ojadi; and Team Lead, Export & Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Emmanuel Nwalor, during the closing ceremony of the 19th edition of the Fidelity Bank Export Management Programme (EMP 19) held recently at Lagos Business School, Lagos.

Tagged EMP 19, the programme is an intense hands-on export management workshop, organized as a partnership between Fidelity Bank, Lagos Business School and Nigerian Export Promotion Council, brought together entrepreneurs, professionals, regulators and aspiring exporters for intensive training designed to equip participants with the knowledge, skills and networks required to compete successfully in international markets.

Speaking at the closing ceremony, Divisional Head, Export and Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Isaiah Ndukwe, said the bank remains focused on empowering Nigerian businesses to leverage emerging opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and expand the country’s non-oil export base.

“At Fidelity Bank, we recognize that capacity building is critical to unlocking Nigeria’s export potential. Through the Export Management Programme, we are equipping businesses with practical knowledge, market intelligence and strategic insights required to compete successfully in regional and global markets,” Ndukwe said.

“As AfCFTA continues to open new frontiers for trade across Africa, our goal is to ensure that Nigerian exporters are adequately prepared to seize these opportunities and contribute meaningfully to the country’s economic diversification agenda,” he added.

Nwalor further noted that the bank remains committed to providing exporters with the financial solutions, advisory support and strategic partnerships necessary to expand their businesses beyond Nigeria’s borders.

Also speaking, Director of the Export Management Programme at Lagos Business School, Professor Frank Ojadi, highlighted the need for continuous capacity development as international trade continues to evolve.

“The export market is always evolving. There are changes in policies, improvements in processes and increasing interest from businesses. These developments make it necessary to build the capabilities of our people to compete effectively in export markets,” Ojadi said.

According to him, this year’s programme placed significant emphasis on AfCFTA, exposing participants to both the fundamentals and practical aspects of leveraging the continental trade agreement for business growth.

“Many businesses are still learning how to take advantage of AfCFTA. Through this programme, participants gained practical insights that will help them navigate opportunities across African markets and beyond,” he added.

In his remarks, Senior Fellow and Head of the Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Management at Lagos Business School, Dr. Uche Attoh, emphasized the importance of negotiation and dispute resolution skills in international trade.

“It is negotiation that enables businesses to establish deals, while arbitration helps resolve disputes when they arise. Once participants understand the principles, they can apply them in any business environment, whether in Africa, Europe or America,” Attoh said.

Participants described the programme as impactful and transformative. Assistant Director at the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Obinna Oforum, said the training strengthened his resolve to become an “export champion”.

Similarly, Chief Superintendent of Customs, Orji Samuel, praised Fidelity Bank and Lagos Business School for subsidizing the programme and creating an enabling platform for practical learning, noting that the knowledge gained would help participants navigate export challenges and unlock new business opportunities.

The Export Management Programme is Fidelity Bank’s flagship capacity-building initiative aimed at developing export-ready businesses and professionals capable of driving Nigeria’s non-oil export growth. Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, the Bank continues to play a leading role in supporting businesses, facilitating trade and creating pathways for sustainable economic development.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving more than 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international awards, including the 2025 Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) Innovation Award for MSME support; Best Retail and SME Bank Award from Independent Newspapers; Best Bank for Export & Trade Finance and Most Innovative Bank of the Year at the 2025 BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; and Nigeria’s Best Private Bank at the 2025 Euromoney Awards. The Bank also received the inaugural Most Improved Commercial Bank of the Year award by Nairametrics, the SME Bank of the Year award by NewsDirect, and the Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award by Citi Group, in addition to recognition by Global Brands Magazine for Excellence in Community Empowerment.


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FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

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Federal government has engaged the banking community in Abuja to deepen understanding of the Revenue Optimisation Assurance Platform (RevOp), a digital platform designed to improve revenue generation, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability.

FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

Mr Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, told RevOp sensitisation workshop, organised by the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) in Abuja, that RevOp is a centralised digital revenue collection and monitoring system designed to modernise Nigeria’s public finance operations.

Oyedele, who was represented by Mr Mohammed Danjuma, permanent secretary, Special Duties, explained that the platform provides a real-time, automated framework for all federal agencies to raise, collect, and report revenues, replacing fragmented manual processes that have plagued revenue collection for decades.

He reiterated the government’s commitment to improving revenue generation, enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency across public financial management processes.

“RevOp serves as a critical tool in the government’s drive to improve revenue administration, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability,” he said.

According to him, a lot had been achieved since the inception and implementation of the platform and that the successes were not without challenges.

He identified one of the challenges as limited awareness among some banking channels and frontline officers.

The minister explained that some banking channels are not familiar with RevOp, its purpose, or the procedural requirements to support transaction processes through the platform.

“These challenges, though operational in nature, have significant impacts on the overall customer experience and effectiveness of the initiative. This is precisely why we are here today,” he said.

The minister said that the success of RevOp would not be achieved by government alone, adding that it required strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly banking institutions, which serve as critical collection and service channels.

He explained that the banking institutions’ role extends beyond merely collecting or processing payments to ensuring that government revenue collection processes are efficient and user-friendly.

“Today’s sensitisation session has, therefore, been organised to deepen understanding of the platform, clarify operational processes, address concerns, and establish stronger communication channels between the project team and participating financial institutions.

“We expect that the knowledge shared here will cascade throughout your respective organisations, especially to branch operations, customer service personnel, and tellers who interact directly with customers on a daily basis,” he said.

Oyedele said the ministry remained committed to working closely with all stakeholders to address identified challenges and continuously improve the platform.

In his speech, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, accountant general of the Federation, said that the revenue optimisation portal had been adopted as a strategic platform for improving revenue collection, reconciliation, monitoring, and reporting.

Ogunjimi, represented by Mr Felix Ogundairo, his chief of staff, explained that the platform was designed to provide greater visibility into government revenue, eliminate leakages, improve compliance, and support informed decision-making through real-time data and analytics.

“This engagement, therefore, provides an opportunity for us to discuss implementation challenges, align expectations, clarify operational issues, and strengthen the partnership necessary for the success of the application,” he said.

In his remarks, Mr. Idris Dosunmu, RevOp Product Manager, explained that the platform unifies billing, payment and settlement under one platform and that every transaction passes through secure connections, ensuring complete transparency from bill creation to treasury receipt.

“This will ensure that every penny due to the federal government goes into the coffers of the government,” Dosunmu said.


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