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FXTM: Dollar Sensitivity Seizes Centre Stage

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Global stocks descended deeper into the abyss in the first trading week of May following the tepid Chinese manufacturing data and slash in Europe’s growth outlook that renewed concerns about the health of the global economy.

European equities were left depressed with the FTSE100 attracting most of the headline attention yesterday after the major index dropped to its lowest level in around three weeks.

The bearish contagion from Europe encouraged investors to scatter away from riskier assets and this consequently punished American markets that also closed negative.

With expectations rapidly diminishing over further central bank interventions by the BoJ, Asian markets could remain pressured for an extended period as an appreciating Yen weighs heavily on the Nikkei.

Investors should keep in mind that confidence towards the global economy is strikingly low and with oil prices almost puppeteering the movements in the stock markets, further declines could be pending in the near term.

FTSE100 Spotlight
The elevated concerns over the health of the global economy complimented with the incessant declines in oil prices have soured investor risk appetite, consequently leaving the FTSE100 vulnerable to further losses.

This index has been weighed down by a variety of different factors with this including: mining stocks being dragged lower, a resumption of concerns over economic momentum in China following factory activity shrinking in April, and an unexpected UK Manufacturing PMI contraction.

These attributes combined have provided a foundation for bearish investors to install a heavy round of selling with prices edging towards 6150.

From a technical standpoint, this index is under pressure on the daily timeframe.

Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support at 6200 could transform into a dynamic resistance that could open a path to 6150.

Dollar Trades with Fragility
The dimming expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US rates in Q2 have provided a platform for bearish investors to ruthlessly attack the Dollar Index to levels not seen since January 2015, below 92.00.

Sentiment is undeniably bearish towards the Dollar, and with domestic data in the United States pointing to further weakness in the economy, Dollar vulnerability could remain the dominant theme in the global currency markets.

With the NFP looming this week, Dollar sensitivity could heighten as market participants ponder on the likelihood of a figure that exceeds expectations.

With global developments constantly exposing the US economy to downside risks, it seems likely that a positive NFP may do little to boost optimism over another US rate hike in 2016.

All eyes should remain on the Dollar in May as the Dollar Index approaches a major support level that if breached below, could spell an even deeper correction lower for the Dollar.

The potential for another period of extended weakness in the Dollar is technically looking strong at present from a technical and fundamental perspective.

If even a positive NFP report leads to a sudden surge in expectations over a possible US rate hike, the fundamentals disagree and as such could provide a relief rally for bearish investors to exploit.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar is bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD also trades to the downside. If prices can breach the weekly support at 92.50 then the flood gates could be open for a steeper decline towards 90.00

BoJ Feeling the Heat
Investors were left bewildered last week following the Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to leave monetary policy measures unchanged despite the economy wheezing for further central bank intervention. The disappointment from the BoJ’s inaction triggered a sharp appreciation in the Yen, which caused the USDJPY to plummet to 18-month lows.

Falling commodity prices have left Japan under intense pressure while an appreciating Yen continues to erode the nation’s export competitiveness, consequently rekindling fears of deflationary woes.

Expectations are swiftly fading over further interventions by the BoJ and this could spell more gains for the Yen which may simply punish the nation that is already entangled in a losing battle with falling inflation.

From a technical standpoint, the USDJPY is extremely bearish and with Yen strength becoming a dominant theme in the currency markets, prices could decline towards 105.00. This momentum may likely take the USDJPY towards 105.00 in the medium term. If prices decide to bounce, then previous support at 107.50 could become a dynamic resistance for a decline towards 105.00.

GBPUSD Plummets as Brexit Camp Leads
The Sterling/Dollar tumbled with force during trading on Tuesday after a poll which displayed the Brexit camp as leading renewed a wave of jitters that haunted investor attraction towards the Sterling. This decline was complimented with the unexpected contraction in the UK manufacturing PMI that rekindled fears over the health of the UK economy.

With UK data repeatedly following a tepid path, expectations over the BoE hiking UK rates have declined considerably and such has offered a platform for bears to attack. Sentiment is heavily bearish towards the pound and prices could be poised to decline towards 1.44 if the 1.45 support is breached.

From a technical standpoint, the candlesticks are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the upside. Sterling bears simply need to exploit the window of weakness below 1.45 to reclaim some control under 1.44.

WTI Bulls Struggle Below $46.50
WTI Crude found resistance at $46.50 during trading this week as news dispersed of OPEC production output nearing record highs in April, which renewed fears over the excessive supply in the saturated markets.

It is becoming increasingly clear that WTI is fundamentally bearish and with expectations rapidly retracting over any production cuts, bears could attack prices back towards $41.40.

While from a technical standpoint prices are bullish on the daily timeframe, bears only need a window of weakness to send this unstable tower crashing back down.

If crude oil inventories have risen in today’s report then this could be the first catalyst needed for WTI crude bears to send prices lower.

From a technical standpoint, there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD also trades to the upside. A breakdown below $44 could open the gates to $41.40 and potentially lower. While these short term gains are impressive, the fundamentals continue to signal to the downside and such should keep investors diligent.

Gold Regains Allure
Gold edged closer to a major resistance around $1305 this trading week following the explosive mixture of Dollar weakness and steep declines in equity markets that boosted investor attraction to safe haven assets.

We remain fundamentally bullish on Gold and Dollar weakness may provide a platform for bullish investors to install another heavy round of buying momentum.

With concerns over slowing global growth and fading expectations over the Fed raising US rates in Q2 magnifying the metal’s allure, prices could be poised for further inclines. Although Gold has descended back towards $1280, this correction could provide a platform for bulls to send the metal back towards $1305 and potentially higher.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. Previous support at $1270 could encourage buyers to send Gold prices back towards $1305.

The Article is the opinion of Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 


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Court Jails  Nwachukwu, Ex FCMB Manager 121 Years for N112m Fraud

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The Anambra State High Court sitting in the Onitsha area of the state has sentenced Nwachukwu Placidus, a former manager with First City Monument Bank (FCMB), Onitsha branch, to a cumulative 121 years imprisonment for diverting fixed deposit funds of a customer to the tune of N112,100,000 for his personal use.

Court Jails  Nwachukwu, Ex FCMB Manager 121 Years for N112m Fraud

Justice S. N. Odili, presiding judge, sentenced Placidus sentenced to jail on Friday.

The former FCMB manager was arraigned on 16-count charges bordering on forgery, stealing, obtaining by false pretence, and uttering by the Enugu Zonal Command of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on March 27, 2018.

One of the counts read: “Nwachukwu Placidus between February 2009 and November 2014 in Onitsha, Anambra State, within the jurisdiction of the Anambra State High Court of Nigeria with intent to defraud obtained the sum of N112,100,000 from Idemili Microfinance Bank under the false pretence that you have placed the said money in a fixed deposit account with First City Monument Bank Plc for it, which pretence you knew to be false and you thereby committed an offence.”

Placidus, according to a statement issued by Dele Oyewale, EFCC spokesperson, on Saturday, May 4, pleaded not guilty to the charges when they were read to him, setting the stage for his trial.

In the course of his trial, the EFCC, through its counsel, Mainforce Adaka Ekwu, presented four witnesses and tendered several relevant documents which were admitted in evidence.

In his judgement, Justice Odili held that “the prosecution proved its case beyond reasonable doubt” and sentenced Placidus to nine years imprisonment on count 3, four years on count 4, and nine years on counts 5 to 16, respectively. He was discharged on counts 1 and 2.

The judge added that the sentences will run concurrently.

Justice Odili further ordered the convict to restitute N112 million to his victim, Idemili Microfinance Bank.


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DLM Trust Unveils DLM Single Asset Trust

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DLM Trust, a subsidiary of DLM Capital Group is thrilled the announce the launch of DLM Single Asset Trust, a variant of the Living Trust construct that allows for a groundbreaking solution for individuals or Corporations seeking to establish single asset trusts for the benefit of themselves and their chosen beneficiaries.

The DLM Single Asset Trust guarantees that people’s assets are protected and managed in accordance with their intentions by operating under the tenets of trust, security, and careful management.

The DLM SAT offers a novel approach to trust services by fusing state-of-the-art technology with knowledgeable advice to enable people and families to effortlessly manage their assets.

DLM SAT enables individuals, often referred to as Settlors or Corporations, to create a single asset trust that will serve both their own and their designated beneficiaries’ purposes.

The Trust Fund may be started using the Settlor’s assets/funds and then expanded with future contributions in accordance with the Settlor’s goals. Only authorised individuals, including the settlor, can access the trust because of its strong independent and confidentiality level.

DLM Trust Company, acting as the designated Trustee, holds the Fund in trust and manages it for the benefit of the Settlor and designated Beneficiaries.

In a statement, MD of DLM Trust, Lola Razaaq commented on the introduction of the DLM Single Asset Trust, stating that it is a means of establishing a timeline for legacy preservation.

“As a game-changer in the trust services industry, the DLM SAT is our newest offering, and we are thrilled to announce this important milestone for DLM Trust.”

The aim of our organisation is to equip people and families with the necessary resources and assistance to safeguard and maintain their heritage for future generations. “Furthermore, we are transforming the concept of future planning with DLM Single Asset Trust.” she said.

DLM Trust Company Limited is registered with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and incorporated under the Companies and Allied Matters Act to provide trust services to individuals, corporations, sub-sovereign entities.

As always, strategic thinking and innovation will be combined by DLM Trust Company to offer its clients best-in-class services. Since its founding, DLM Trust has worked on a variety of creative and unique transactions, including securitizations, private and public bonds.


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UBA Champions Youth Empowerment through Graduate Programme, Employs 398 Across Africa

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United Bank for Africa (UBA), Africa’s Global Bank held the second edition of its expanded Graduate Management Acceleration Programme (GMAP) class of 2024, where 398 young Africans were inducted into the UBA Tribe after a rigorous six-month hands-on-work and learning experience.

The event, which was held in a grand ceremony in Eko Hotel, Lagos on Thursday, was graced by esteemed guests, the UBA management, faculty members, mentors, and the graduating class.

The granduads are from six African countries, including Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroun, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia.

Addressing the gathering, UBA’s Group Chairman, Tony Elumelu, who congratulated all the graduates, expressed profound pride and admiration for their success having completed the intense capacity-building programme, combining learning with on-the-job training experience, garnered while rotating across several departments and units in the bank.

Elumelu took time to highlight the bank’s passion for youth empowerment in Africa, while bridging the unemployment gap, which according to him, remains one of the greatest challenges of the continent.

“For me these young UBA Graduates are a testament to who we are: a truly pan-African Group, that invests in African talent.This milestone is more than just numbers. It signifies UBA’s commitment to youth empowerment. Unemployment is the greatest challenge we face – a tragic and cruel betrayal of a generation. We know governments alone cannot create all the jobs we need – so it is up to us, the African private sector, to partner our government in improving lives and livelihoods. This is Africapitalism, and it is gratifying to see UBA play its part. UBA is dedicated to creating a positive impact, through the GMAP programme UBA is creating employment, boosting economic growth, and transforming lives across Africa,” Group Chairman said.

Continuing, he said, “At UBA, identifying these young ones, bringing them to the centre, training them, equipping them for the future and the task ahead, not just for a career in UBA, but wherever they end up remains our passion, because this is how we play our role as a Pan-African bank, in helping to empower the next generation, which is the African youth. We are helping to create employment and this for us is our driving force.”

Earlier in his speech, UBA’s Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Alawuba, commended the graduating class for their unwavering commitment and emphasized the program’s role in cultivating the next generation of UBA leaders.

“Your dedication, resilience, and unwavering commitment have been nothing short of inspiring. Each of you has demonstrated the qualities of a true UBA ambassador, and today, we celebrate not just your achievements but also the collective strength of our UBA family.

While recognizing the invaluable support extended by families and friends, the GMD said, “Let us take a moment to express our deepest appreciation for their steadfast support as the invaluable support of your families and friends throughout this journey. Their love, encouragement, and understanding have undoubtedly played a pivotal role in your success.”

UBA’s Group Head, Human Resources, Modupe Akindele, said the bank remains committed to nurturing talent and leadership within the organisation. She noted that the GMAP programme, which marked its second graduation will be a continuous initiative, as it culminates an intensive journey towards leadership excellence.

“Already, the programme has graduated over 1,100 graduates, that is about 700 in 2023 and now we have 398 graduates. The fact remains that at UBA, we believe in equal opportunity for all, regardless of age, tribe, gender, or background; and so, we will continue to pursue our dream to nurture these young ones to their full potential,” she added.

United Bank for Africa Plc is a leading Pan-African financial institution, offering banking services to more than twenty-five million customers, across over 1,000 business offices and customer touch points, in 20 African countries and across 4 continents.

With presence in the United States of America, the United Kingdom and France and more recently the United Arab Emirates, UBA is connecting people and businesses across Africa through retail; commercial and corporate banking; innovative cross-border payments and remittances; trade finance and ancillary banking services.


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