Telecom
Complicated Dynamics of Nigeria’s 2.6 GHz Auction

Nigeria’s telecoms regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) is in the process of auctioning spectrum in the 2.6GHz band. 2.6GHz is a so-called 4G band, allowing the winning bidder to roll-out 4G next generation mobile networks across the country.
There is much riding on this auction; we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high – but this is not merely a matter of value.
The 2.6 GHz auction is the first major, public test of investor sentiment in the country’s telecoms sector over the past few months.
This is a difficult period for the entire Nigerian economy, but it is particularly complicated for the telecoms sector.
Fuel shortages have made operating conditions tougher; economic growth has slowed markedly; the IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.3% this year, down from 2.8% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2014.
Foreign exchange restrictions have hit especially hard, making it difficult to import foreign telecoms equipment and raise foreign capital as financial markets adopt a wait-and-see approach towards Nigeria and anticipate naira devaluation.
Add to that concerns of regulatory heavy-handedness following the record $2.5bn fine levied on MTN Nigeria for failure to disconnect SIM cards and stakeholders have been cautious at best.
The 2.6GHz auction is expected to alleviate some of this angst, and offer the opportunity to participate in a Nigerian mobile connectivity and digital services market that remains unquestionably promising.
We currently estimate it at around $2bn a year, with the potential of at least doubling in size within the next five years. The NCC hopes to generate at least $224m through the sale of 14 lots of 10MHz, at a reserve price of $16m per lot.
And yet, we find the probability for disappointment in the returns from this auction to be fairly high. It’s not a matter of value.
Our assessment of 4G spectrum prices in Africa suggests that on a benchmark basis, the reserve price set by the NCC, if anything, slightly undervalues this spectrum asset.
Indeed, we estimate the median value of Nigeria’s 2.6GHz band, if sold under optimal conditions, at around $20m for a 2x5MHz lot, around 25% above the suggested reserve price.
We see the problem elsewhere, in the very nature of the 2.6GHz band and the structural setup of the auction. We highlight a few points:
• The minimum investment threshold is too high – the NCC is asking for a minimum investment of $64m for 40 MHz. Few operators can come up with and/or justify this amount for this type of investment at this time, and for this particular asset. By comparison, Morocco sold 20 MHz and Ghana 30 MHz in their respective 4G processes; Cote-d’Ivoire sold 40 MHz, but as part of a broader mix of frequencies including 2G and 3G, which raised overall value.
• Further, we believe the sale of the 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis drags down the intrinsic value of this offering. The 2.6GHz band is best used as high-density, urban area complement to lower-band spectrum. Sold alone, it loses some of its attractiveness. In the majority of African 4G transactions in which 2.6GHz was offered, it was typically auctioned as part of a mix of 4G frequencies including the lower-band 700MHz or 800MHz. Few other markets -outside of Ghana’s narrow fixed wireless access (FWA) process of 2011- have sold 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis. By selling 2.6GHz on a stand-alone basis, Nigeria is in effect selling 4G spectrum at FWA conditions.
• An operator purchasing the 2.6GHz would have no first-mover advantage in Nigeria. In nearly all other cases of 4G licensing in Africa, the players acquiring the spectrum are the first to roll out the services at scale. By contrast, Nigeria already has 5 LTE players (using 800MHz or 2300 MHz), at least 4 of which are specifically targeting the high-density urban areas that the new owner of the 2.6GHz band would presumably target. And nearly all these other players acquired their licences at a value point 3 times lower than the requested reserve price.
This all makes for interesting dynamics around the auction. The one company that could potentially afford the band, MTN Nigeria, doesn’t really have to have it.
MTN Nigeria acquired Visafone primarily for its sought-after 800MHz spectrum and has announced it will launch LTE in July 2016. Acquiring the 2.6GHz would still be useful, but arguably not enough to overbid.
Other GSM operators in need of 4G spectrum will have to assess whether this is the best use of capital, an equation complicated by the lack of visibility on the availability of the preferred 700MHz band. An operator without the lower band option would be (and indeed, should be) hesitant to invest in the 2.6GHz even at the suggested reserve price, only to be limited to high-density areas where competition is the fiercest.
In this case, the driving rationale for an investment would be not to be left behind – but the 2.6GHz is really only a small step while waiting for the real (and more expensive) prize, the 700 MHz or 800 MHz band.
The question is therefore how aggressive to be on 2.6GHz when this is not the most critical piece to have.
And indeed, an argument can be made that an aggressive bid for Smile Nigeria or Intercellular (who hold the last remaining 800MHz chunks) would be more sensible than a strong play for 2.6 GHz spectrum – though one does not exclude the other.
For the Nigerian government, the real proceeds are not in the 2.6GHz auction in our view. They are in finding a way to bring the 700 MHz or whatever might be left of the 800 MHz to market as soon as possible.
Telecom
NCC Orders Telcos to Give Users Free Airtime for Poor Network Service

Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), yesterday ordered telecom operators to begin compensation of subscribers for poor network quality with airtime credits.

According to Dr Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman, NCC, the measure is part of renewed efforts to improve service delivery, protect consumers, and hold operators accountable for persistent lapses in network performance across the country.
Maida, also outlined his commission’s latest compliance and enforcement strategies.
He said the compensation directive followed verified failures by operators to meet established minimum quality of service standards in several locations.
“It is not a refund from the regulator but a compliance obligation placed on service providers,” he said, stressing operators must bear full responsibility.
He explained that the framework relies on detailed monitoring at local government level, enabling the commission to pinpoint exact areas and periods of poor service.
This granular approach, he said, allows regulators to move beyond general complaints and focus on measurable, location-specific service deficiencies affecting subscribers.
According to him, the compensation specifically covers service failures recorded between November 2025 and January 2026 across multiple network providers.
“Eligible subscribers will receive airtime credits with notifications explaining the cause and value of the compensation,” he said.
He added that notifications would improve transparency and help users understand why compensation was applied to their accounts.
Maida noted the commission has significantly strengthened its monitoring systems to capture real-time, location-specific service performance data.
“These systems ensure enforcement reflects actual user experience rather than generalised industry averages,” he said, highlighting improved regulatory precision.
He added that operators are required to implement the compensation directly, while the NCC provides oversight to ensure compliance.
“Independent checks will confirm that affected subscribers are properly credited,” he said, noting sanctions for non-compliance may follow.
Maida said the initiative formed part of broader reforms aimed at improving accountability and service standards within the telecommunications sector.
“Operators failing to meet obligations will face stricter enforcement measures,” he warned, signalling tougher regulatory action ahead.
He stressed that improving service quality required both sustained infrastructure investment and stronger operational discipline by network providers.
“Service providers must maintain performance standards consistently across all regions, including underserved and rural areas,” he said.
Maida reiterated the NCC’s commitment to balancing consumer protection with industry sustainability and long-term sector growth.
“Operators must take responsibility for the quality of experience delivered to subscribers,” he said, urging greater corporate accountability.
He added that the commission remained committed to ensuring Nigerians received value for money spent on telecom services nationwide.
“Persistent poor service quality is no longer acceptable under current regulatory direction,” he said, emphasising zero tolerance for continued lapses.
Telecom
NCC Tasks Nigeria IPv6 Council to Drive Adoption Beyond 5% in 3 Years

Dr. Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman, Nigerian Communications Commission – NCC has urged the newly inaugurated Nigeria IPv6 Council to develop a credible pathway to raise Nigeria’s IPv6 adoption from approximately 5% today to a level that places us among Africa’s leading nations within the next three years.

He stated this at the inauguration of Nigeria IPv6 Council in Lagos yesterday. Quoting APNIC’s 2026 global measurements, “Nigeria’s IPv6 adoption stands at approximately 5% while leading economies have surpassed 40%. Global IPv4 reserves are exhausted, while the rapid expansion of 5G networks, the Internet of Things, cloud services, and AI-driven applications has pushed the limits of legacy internet addressing.
“At the same time, the cyber-threat landscape continues to intensify. In this context, IPv6 is a strategic necessity for national competitiveness, security, and economic sovereignty.”
Dr. Maida urged the Council to drive collaboration between stakeholders to ensure alignment with the National IPv6 Deployment Strategy.
“To our operators, government colleagues, and enterprise partners, the time for the adoption of, and prioritisation of IPv6 deployment across your networks and platforms is now. Invest in training your technical teams,and ensure that your infrastructure and procurement pipelines are IPv6-ready by default. The investments you make today will determine Nigeria’s digital competitiveness tomorrow.”
The commission mandated the Council to establish a monitoring and reporting framework; Including providing quarterly progress updates to the Commission and an annual State of IPv6 Deployment report to the nation.
More so, drive capacity building and certification by partnering with AFRINIC, academic institutions, and professional bodies to train a critical mass of IPv6-certified engineers across Nigeria.
Champion public sector leadership by working with MDAs to migrate government networks, websites, and e-services to dual-stack or IPv6-native configurations, so that the public sector leads by example.
Engage industry players and the private sector, working with operators, ISPs, data centres, content providers, and financial institutions to remove deployment barriers and unlock private investment in IPv6 infrastructure.
They were also urged to advise on policy and regulation, recommending to the Commission the incentives, standards, and procurement guidelines required to accelerate nationwide adoption.
Mr. Muhammed Rudman, chairman of the Nigeria IPv6 Council in his presentation said that With IPv4 addresses exhausted worldwide, continued reliance on legacy resource creates scalability bottlenecks.
“Our growing digital economy is projected to reach $18.3 billion in revenue by 2026—requires modern addressing capabilities. Without urgent IPv6 transition, Nigeria risks being left behind as emerging technologies like 5G, IoT, and cloud services demand the expanded address space only IPv6 can provide
“IPv6 is essential for Nigeria’s digital transformation, providing the foundation for unlimited connectivity, enhanced security, and next-generation technologies that will drive economic growth and innovation.
“IPv6 provides 340 undecillion IP addresses, ensuring every device in Nigeria can connect directly to the internet without costly workarounds or address sharing.
“Built-in IPsec encryption improves network security. Enables IoT, cloud computing, AI, and smart city initiatives critical to Nigeria’s digital economy, he added.
As a catalyst for National Development, he said IPv6 enables expansion of digital services, e-commerce platforms, and fintech solutions, driving economic diversification and job creation across Nigeria.
“Expanded internet access reaches underserved communities while seamless device integration connects millions of Nigerians to the digital economy.
IPv6 provides the foundation for IoT deployments, smart city initiatives, and AI-powered services that will transform Nigeria’s technological landscape,” he stated.
Telecom
DG NITDA Calls for Urgent Action on AI-Driven Cyber Threats, Announces More Stakeholder Engagements

Kashifu Inuwa CCIE, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), has raised concerns over the rapidly evolving cybersecurity risks driven by artificial intelligence, urging immediate and coordinated national action.

Kashifu Inuwa CCIE, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA).
Speaking ahead of the formal inauguration of a proposed cybersecurity advisory council, Inuwa disclosed that the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy plans to convene at least two additional stakeholder engagement sessions.
According to him, the move underscores a deliberate commitment to inclusivity and transparency, mirroring the collaborative framework adopted in developing Nigeria’s National AI Strategy.
He explained that the increasing integration of artificial intelligence into everyday systems has significantly altered the cybersecurity landscape, introducing more complex and unpredictable threats.
“AI is changing the game and elevating the threat landscape. The more we integrate AI into our lives, the more we need to change the way we look at cybersecurity. There are two fundamental issues we need to think about,” he said.
The NITDA boss highlighted the dual nature of emerging threats, noting that cyberattacks are now being carried out both on AI systems and through AI technologies, thereby expanding the scope and scale of vulnerabilities.
He further warned about the rise of advanced AI-driven social engineering tactics, particularly the growing use of deepfake technology.
“We are also witnessing increasingly sophisticated AI-driven social engineering. The emergence of deepfakes makes it difficult to distinguish between AI-generated audio or video and authentic content.
“There have even been instances where such technology is used during virtual calls,” he noted.
“This is the reality of the world we live in today, and it is not a challenge any single entity can address in isolation. The only way forward is to strengthen collaboration and deepen synergy between governments and the private sector,” he added.
Inuwa stressed that cybersecurity resilience depends heavily on collective responsibility, cautioning that weaknesses within any single organisation could expose entire networks to risk.
“We are only as strong as our weakest link. If one entity is compromised, it creates risks for others within the network,” he stated, referencing recent incidents in which financial institutions were exploited to gain access to broader payment systems and even government infrastructure.
Commending the Minister for initiating the cybersecurity advisory council, the NITDA DG described it as a crucial platform for enhancing cooperation, facilitating information sharing, and building a more resilient national digital ecosystem.
He reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to supporting the council and collaborating with stakeholders across sectors to strengthen Nigeria’s cybersecurity framework in the face of evolving AI-driven threats.
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