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FXTM Analysis: Markets Stabilize But Have Brexit Jitters Subsided?

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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Global stocks weathered the Brexit blues during trading on Wednesday with most major markets clawing back previous losses as optimism grew over central banks intervening to stabilize the post-Brexit turmoil.

Sentiment towards the global economy continues to show signs of improvement with the renewed risk appetite encouraging investors to seek riskier assets.

Asian stocks were elevated from Tuesday’s stock market rally and propelled higher on Wednesday from the growing expectations over the Bank of Japan expanding on stimulus measures.

European equities seized the positivity from Asia and surprisingly strolled back into the green territory despite the growing uncertainty over the UK’s future.

Although Wall Street could lurch higher from the bullish momentum borrowed from Europe, questions may be asked if this stock market rally is just another dead cat bounce.

While more short term gains in stocks may be realized as speculations risetowards the central banks mitigating the turmoil in the financial markets, the fundamentals which have been dragging prices lower have not changed whatsoever.

Fears over diminishing global growth may weigh on global sentiment, while the Brexit woes could leave most central banks cautious.

It should be kept in mind that overall confidence towards the global economy is fragile and this relief rally could come to an end when the risk-off trading environment motivates investors to scatter from riskier assets to safe-haven investments.

Sterling Bears On A Tea Break
The Sterling staged a slight recovery on Wednesday with the GBPUSD piercing back above 1.3350 as a combination of profit taking and easing Brexit anxieties provided a foundation for bulls for pounce.

Regardless of short term gains, the Sterling remains bearish and could be destined for further declines when the persisting uncertainty over the immeasurable impacts of a Brexit haunt investor attraction towards the currency.

Many questions remain unanswered post-Brexit, while uncertainty mounts as fears grow over the UK having no clear path to leaving the European Union.

With expectations dangerously increasing that the Bank of England could slash UK rates in the events of a Brexit fueled recession, any true recovery in the Sterling’s value may have been sabotaged.

Another sharp decline could be pending and the catalyst may be the clarity provided when the Article 50 is triggered. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is heavily bearish and sellers could exploit this relief rally to send prices lower. Previous support at 1.3850 could transform into a potential resistance that invites sellers to send the GBPUSD back towards 1.3200.

EU Summits commences… without the UK
European Union leaders have begun their discussion on a range of critical global and economic issues in the summit without Britain as they search for stability post-Brexit.

The Brexit has left the Eurozone under extreme pressure with the growing concerns over other countries leaving the bloc posing one of the greatest challenges presented to European leaders.

Mario Draghi has already expressed his sadness over the Brexit victory while expectations continue to heighten that the European Central Bank takes action in a bid to reviving Eurozone growth.

Weak GDP growth and static inflation have punished the European economy and the Brexit adding to the mix weighs heavily on Eurozone sentiment. The EUR could be set for a slippery decline if the growing Brexit anxieties encourage market participants to relinquish their Euros for safer currencies such as the Dollar and Yen.

Gold finds support above $1308
Gold found minor support above $1308 during trading on Wednesday as a mixture of Dollar weakness and risk aversion from the Brexit jitters ensured the metal remained buoyed.

This precious metal remains fundamentally bullish and could be poised to trade towards $1350 as the Brexit concerns impact US rate hike expectations.

Further Dollar weakness and a flight to safe-haven safety amid the global uncertainty could provide bulls a foundation to install another heavy round of buying. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. Previous resistance around $1308-1300 could act as a dynamic support which triggers an incline towards $1350.

Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

CBN Directs IMTOs to Open Naira Settlement Accounts

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) operating in the country to open and maintain naira settlement accounts with authorised dealer banks, as part of efforts to tighten oversight of diaspora remittances and improve transparency in the foreign exchange market.

CBN Directs IMTOs to Open Naira Settlement Accounts

The directive was contained in a circular dated March 24, 2026, signed by Dr Musa Nakorji, director of the Trade and Exchange Department, and addressed to IMTOs, authorised dealer banks and the general public.

The circular was published on the apex bank’s website on Tuesday.

The CBN said the measure is aimed at “enhancing diaspora remittances, strengthening transparency, traceability, and effective monitoring of all transactions.”

It stated that “all IMTOs are hereby directed to open naira settlement accounts and ensure that all transactions are routed strictly through their designated settlement accounts, maintained with Authorised Dealer Banks in Nigeria.”

Under the new rule, all inflows, beneficiary payments and related settlements linked to international money transfers are to be processed solely through these accounts.

IMTOs may, however, operate multiple settlement accounts across different banks in line with their operational needs.

The circular also introduced tighter controls on how the accounts can be funded, stating that they “shall only be credited with remittance flows and proceeds of foreign exchange conversions by licensed IMTOs (or their agents)” within the Nigerian foreign exchange market.

Operators are required to clearly designate the accounts and submit the details to the CBN, with updates provided periodically where necessary.

To improve market operations, authorised dealer banks are permitted to process foreign currency transfers from IMTO settlement accounts to other banks and approved participants, including licensed Bureau De Change operators.

The apex bank further directed IMTOs to adopt market-reflective pricing by referencing the Bloomberg BMatch system. It said IMTOs “shall observe real-time market prices from the Bloomberg BMATCH and utilise this as guidance for pricing transactions with their customers and Authorised Dealers.”

According to the CBN, this approach is expected to “improve price discovery, reduce information asymmetry between IMTOs and banks, and encourage increased participation in the official FX market.”

The bank added that all operators must maintain proper transaction records for regulatory checks and comply fully with anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing rules.

“This directive takes effect from May 1, 2026. Please note and ensure compliance,” the circular stated.

The move shows the CBN’s push to channel remittance inflows through formal banking channels, boost liquidity in the official foreign exchange market and strengthen regulatory oversight of cross-border transactions.

 


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DLM Capital Group’s AAA-Rated Sovereign Bond-Backed Composite Notes (“SBCNS”) Strengthens Investor Confidence with Successful First Principal & Interest Payment

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L-r: Kasham Musa Iliya, Non - Executive Director, DLM Global Markets; Kari Tukur, Non - Executive Director, DLM Capital Group; Dr Sonnie Babatunde Ayere, Group Chief Executive Officer, DLM Capital Group; Olayimika Phillips, Non - Executive Director, DLM Capital Group, and Michael Orimobi, Non - Executive Director, DLM Capital Group at the signing ceremony to conclude the ₦9 billion series 1 SBCN issuance in July 2025 at DLM HQ, Lagos.
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Foremost Development Investment Bank, DLM Capital Group has reinforced its position as a leader in innovative fixed income solutions with the successful payment of the first principal and interest (coupon) to investors under its Sovereign Bond-Backed Composite Notes (“SBCNs”) issuance.

This milestone, alongside the consistent delivery of quarterly performance reports, underscores the Group’s commitment to transparency, capital preservation, and investor confidence.

DLM SPV PLC’s 40.62% Hold-to-Maturity return ₦7.30 billion (Tranche A) and 19.07% ₦1.70 billion (Tranche B) Plain Vanilla Series 1 Notes, issued under its ₦30.00 billion Medium-Term Notes Programme and developed by Sonnie Babatunde Ayere, Group CEO of DLM Capital, was recently listed on the FMDQ Exchange with the Tranche A bond becoming the most valuable AAA-rated corporate bond on the market.

This represents a new class of structured debt instruments designed to meet both issuer funding needs and investor expectations. As a platform widely recognised for supporting innovative debt structures, FMDQ provides an enabling environment for instruments like DLM’s SBCNs to thrive.

At launch in July 2025, DLM SBCNs, which achieved a 9-notch upgrade from BBB- (GCR Sponsor ratings at issuance) without securitisation, entered the market with a healthy degree of skepticism, as is typical with pioneering financial instruments. However, after six months of post-issuance, DLM Funding SPV Plc has delivered on its promise by comfortably and successfully meeting its first principal and coupon obligations to its investors.

This performance milestone has significantly strengthened market confidence and validated the robustness of the structure. The notes are rated AAA by Global Credit Rating and AAA by DataPro Limited, reflecting their strong credit fundamentals and low-risk profile. Designed to prioritise capital preservation, liquidity, and above competitive market returns, the instrument stands out as one of the most compelling corporate fixed income offerings for institutional investors currently available in the market.

Investor response has been notably strong and institutional investors who are beginning to recognize the value of a well-structured de-risked, high-return and, high-quality fixed income investment backed by a credible issuer with a proven track record. The combination of timely coupon payments, high credit ratings, and ongoing transparency has positioned SBCNs as a preferred option for investors seeking stability and performance in today’s evolving financial landscape.

As investor interest continues to build towards Series 2, DLM SBCNs are not only demonstrating resilience but also setting a benchmark for innovation in Nigeria’s debt capital markets. In its role as a Development Investment Bank (“DIB”), DLM Capital Group remains committed to delivering structured solutions that align with investor needs whilst maintaining the highest standards of governance and execution.


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Refining Without Relief: How Global Oil Wars, Market Structure, and Monopoly Risks Still Drive Fuel Prices in Nigeria

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By Blaise Udunze

The vision was bold. The expectation was clear. And the promise was powerful. When the Dangote Refinery began operations, it was hailed as Nigeria’s long-awaited escape from decades of energy contradiction, which involves exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel at high costs. It was meant to guarantee supply, stabilize prices, conserve foreign exchange, and most importantly, deliver relief to ordinary Nigerians.

Refining Without Relief: How Global Oil Wars, Market Structure, and Monopoly Risks Still Drive Fuel Prices in Nigeria

 

What appears to be a distinct contradiction is that, despite months into its operation, a different reality is emerging, with fuel prices rising sharply. Inflationary pressures are intensifying. This occurrence has forced Nigerians to ask a difficult question once again, one that calls for an urgent answer. Why does a country that produces and refines crude oil still suffer the consequences of global oil shocks?

Looking at the trend, it is clear that the answer lies not just in geopolitics, but in the deeper structure of Nigeria’s oil economy, where global pricing, policy gaps, and now the looming risk of monopoly intersect.

With the recent development, the latest alarming surge in petrol prices has been driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is particularly the U.S-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliatory measures from Tehran. A well-known fact is that at the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route through which a significant portion of global supply flows. Any disruption, even a speculative one, triggers immediate spikes in crude prices.

Within a week, oil prices jumped from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel. For global markets, this is expected. For Nigeria, it is devastatingly ironic. Because, despite having crude oil in abundance and despite refining it locally, Nigeria remains fully exposed and this has continued to re-echo the same ironic question.

In a rare moment of corporate candor, the refinery’s leadership acknowledged this reality. The plant is deeply affected by global shocks. Crude oil, even when sourced locally, is priced at international benchmarks. Shipping costs have surged dramatically, from about $800,000 per tanker to as high as $3.5 million. Insurance premiums have climbed, and logistics have become significantly more expensive, with total costs further driving higher.

Even more revealing is the refinery’s sourcing structure. Only about 30 percent – 35 percent of crude comes from the Nigerian government supply under the crude-for-naira framework. A significant portion is still purchased in U.S. dollars on the open market, while another 30 percent – 40 percent is sourced internationally, including from the United States and other regions. This means the refinery is not insulated; it is integrated into the global oil system. The implication is unavoidable as local refining has not translated into local pricing control.

The impact on Nigerians has been immediate and severe, as petrol prices have surged from under N800 earlier in the year to over N1,200, and in some regions, it is even more alarming when the prices skyrocketed close to N1,400 per litre. Within weeks, multiple price increases have been recorded, driven largely by global crude price spikes and rising logistics costs. Doubtless, the country has witnessed the consequences ripple across the economy as transport fares rise, food prices increase, businesses struggle with higher operating costs, and inflation accelerates.

The development has attracted the attention of the labour unions and the organised private sector, prompting them to raise concerns and alarm about the consequences of job losses, business closures, and worsening hardship if the trend continues with each passing day, witnessing a daily increase and causing possible artificial scarcity.

Nigeria remains trapped in a painful contradiction. It produces crude oil. It refines crude oil. Yet it cannot protect its citizens from global oil volatility. As Aliko Dangote himself acknowledged, Nigeria has no direct role in the conflict driving these price increases, yet it bears the consequences due to global economic interdependence.

In a real sense, this is the deeper tragedy, as Nigeria has achieved capacity without control.

At the heart of the issue is a structural reality, crude oil is priced globally, not locally. Even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, pricing is benchmarked against international rates. This means refineries pay global crude prices, fuel prices reflect global market conditions, and domestic consumers absorb international shocks. In essence, Nigeria has moved refining home without bringing pricing sovereignty with it.

To be fair, the Dangote Refinery has played a stabilizing role. Nigeria still enjoys relatively lower petrol prices compared to many global markets. In several countries, supply disruptions have led to panic buying and rationing, while Nigeria has maintained a consistent supply. As the refinery’s CEO aptly noted, what is worse than $120 oil is no oil. The refinery has prevented scarcity, but it has not prevented high prices. Availability, in this case, has not equated to affordability, which is the painful part for the citizens.

While much of the current debate focuses on pricing, another critical issue is quietly taking shape, which is the risk of market concentration. Dangote Refinery deserves credit for its scale and ambition, but scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If fuel importers are gradually pushed out and no competing refineries emerge at scale, Nigeria could find itself transitioning from a public sector monopoly to a private sector dominance led by a single player.

Nigeria has seen this pattern before. In the cement industry, increased domestic production did not necessarily translate into lower prices. Limited competition allowed prices to remain elevated despite local capacity. The same risk now looms in the downstream oil sector. Without competition, price-setting power becomes concentrated, supply risks increase, and consumer protection weakens. In a country with fragile regulatory institutions, this is not a theoretical concern; it is a real and present danger.

No one should perceive this wrongly, because it is important, however, not to misplace blame. It should be made known that the Dangote Refinery is not a charity; it is a private enterprise operating within market realities. It must recover its investment, manage costs, and deliver returns. Its exposure to global pricing is not a failure of intent but a function of the system within which it operates.

The real issue lies in the structure of the market and the absence of sufficient competition.

It is no longer news that Nigeria’s downstream sector is now largely deregulated following the removal of fuel subsidies. While deregulation has reduced government fiscal burden and encouraged private investment, it has also exposed consumers to price volatility and limited the scope for intervention, as this has continued to cause pain. Markets, in theory, deliver efficiency, but in practice, they require competition and effective regulation to function properly. Without these, deregulation can simply replace one form of inefficiency with another.

Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote Refinery; it needs to multiply it. The goal should be to build a competitive refining ecosystem to replace one dominant structure with another. The truth is not far from this, as part of a lasting solution, it requires encouraging new refinery investments, removing bottlenecks for players such as BUA and modular refineries, ensuring transparent crude allocation, providing open access to pipelines and storage infrastructure, and enforcing strong antitrust regulations.

Competition remains the most effective regulator of price, which is sacrosanct and it protects consumers, strengthens supply security, and reduces systemic risk.

This must also be perceived beyond competition, which calls for the government to act strategically. The fact is that when supplying crude to local refineries at discounted or stabilized rates, expanding naira-based transactions, and introducing temporary relief measures during global crises are all viable options that must be put into consideration. Energy is too critical to be left entirely to market forces, especially in a developing economy where millions are highly vulnerable to economic shocks.

It is time that Nigerians understood that the nation’s refining crisis has been decades in the making, and it cannot be solved by a single refinery, no matter how large. If asked, it will be said that this is a fact that can’t be argued. The Dangote Refinery is undoubtedly a turning point, but it will only remain so if it is embedded within broader systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks replacing one form of dependency with another, from import dependence to domestic concentration.

The question is no longer whether Nigeria can refine crude oil. It can. The real question is whether Nigeria can build a system that ensures fair pricing, competitive markets, consumer protection, and economic resilience, as these are exactly the core answers.

If global conflicts continue to dictate local fuel prices, if monopoly risks go unchecked, and if citizens remain vulnerable despite abundant resources, then the promise of local refining will remain unfulfilled, as it will bring no expected relief.

What is playing out is the well-known fact that in refining, as in democracy, concentration of power is dangerous. And in both, the strongest safeguard remains the same, competition, transparency, and institutions that serve the public interest.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]


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