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FXTM Analysis: Markets Stabilize But Have Brexit Jitters Subsided?

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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Global stocks weathered the Brexit blues during trading on Wednesday with most major markets clawing back previous losses as optimism grew over central banks intervening to stabilize the post-Brexit turmoil.

Sentiment towards the global economy continues to show signs of improvement with the renewed risk appetite encouraging investors to seek riskier assets.

Asian stocks were elevated from Tuesday’s stock market rally and propelled higher on Wednesday from the growing expectations over the Bank of Japan expanding on stimulus measures.

European equities seized the positivity from Asia and surprisingly strolled back into the green territory despite the growing uncertainty over the UK’s future.

Although Wall Street could lurch higher from the bullish momentum borrowed from Europe, questions may be asked if this stock market rally is just another dead cat bounce.

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While more short term gains in stocks may be realized as speculations risetowards the central banks mitigating the turmoil in the financial markets, the fundamentals which have been dragging prices lower have not changed whatsoever.

Fears over diminishing global growth may weigh on global sentiment, while the Brexit woes could leave most central banks cautious.

It should be kept in mind that overall confidence towards the global economy is fragile and this relief rally could come to an end when the risk-off trading environment motivates investors to scatter from riskier assets to safe-haven investments.

Sterling Bears On A Tea Break
The Sterling staged a slight recovery on Wednesday with the GBPUSD piercing back above 1.3350 as a combination of profit taking and easing Brexit anxieties provided a foundation for bulls for pounce.

Regardless of short term gains, the Sterling remains bearish and could be destined for further declines when the persisting uncertainty over the immeasurable impacts of a Brexit haunt investor attraction towards the currency.

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Many questions remain unanswered post-Brexit, while uncertainty mounts as fears grow over the UK having no clear path to leaving the European Union.

With expectations dangerously increasing that the Bank of England could slash UK rates in the events of a Brexit fueled recession, any true recovery in the Sterling’s value may have been sabotaged.

Another sharp decline could be pending and the catalyst may be the clarity provided when the Article 50 is triggered. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is heavily bearish and sellers could exploit this relief rally to send prices lower. Previous support at 1.3850 could transform into a potential resistance that invites sellers to send the GBPUSD back towards 1.3200.

EU Summits commences… without the UK
European Union leaders have begun their discussion on a range of critical global and economic issues in the summit without Britain as they search for stability post-Brexit.

The Brexit has left the Eurozone under extreme pressure with the growing concerns over other countries leaving the bloc posing one of the greatest challenges presented to European leaders.

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Mario Draghi has already expressed his sadness over the Brexit victory while expectations continue to heighten that the European Central Bank takes action in a bid to reviving Eurozone growth.

Weak GDP growth and static inflation have punished the European economy and the Brexit adding to the mix weighs heavily on Eurozone sentiment. The EUR could be set for a slippery decline if the growing Brexit anxieties encourage market participants to relinquish their Euros for safer currencies such as the Dollar and Yen.

Gold finds support above $1308
Gold found minor support above $1308 during trading on Wednesday as a mixture of Dollar weakness and risk aversion from the Brexit jitters ensured the metal remained buoyed.

This precious metal remains fundamentally bullish and could be poised to trade towards $1350 as the Brexit concerns impact US rate hike expectations.

Further Dollar weakness and a flight to safe-haven safety amid the global uncertainty could provide bulls a foundation to install another heavy round of buying. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. Previous resistance around $1308-1300 could act as a dynamic support which triggers an incline towards $1350.

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

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E-Financial

World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

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World Bank has said that despite nearly three years of economic reforms by the federal government, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty.

World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

The bank stated this in its newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic.

The report which highlighted the country’s deepening social and economic challenges, indicated that while recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence, the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.

The World Bank noted that the seven-year strategy seeks to support Nigeria’s ambition to create more and better jobs through private-sector-led growth while accelerating poverty reduction.

According to the Streamlined Country Diagnostic document, “Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”

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The World Bank pointed out that Nigeria’s economic performance over the past decade had been constrained by structural rigidities, policy missteps, dependence on crude oil, and repeated external shocks, leaving millions trapped in poverty.

It stated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country.

The report also noted that more than 86 million Nigerians remain without electricity, while three to four million young people enter the labour market every year with limited employment opportunities.

It added that sustaining macro-fiscal and structural reforms would be critical to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and ensuring that recent economic stabilisation translates into improved living standards.

According to the report, the reforms have begun to improve macroeconomic indicators.

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Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves exceeded $42bn, fiscal deficits narrowed, and investor confidence strengthened.

However, it warned that high inflation continues to undermine household incomes. The report stated, “High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”

The World Bank added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a more severe economic crisis, institutional weaknesses, weak policy coordination, and inadequate budget transparency continue to pose significant risks.

It warned that sustained reform implementation, backed by deeper structural measures, would be required to improve Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook.

Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank said job creation would serve as the primary pathway for reducing poverty.

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The report explained that international experience from countries such as India, Indonesia, and China shows that moving people into productive employment remains the most effective tool for reducing poverty.

To achieve this, the framework will prioritise labour-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises, while addressing structural deficiencies in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.

 

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SEC Begins Drive to Recover Unclaimed Dividends

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced a nationwide enlightenment campaign to help Nigerians recover unclaimed dividends and other monies arising from capital market transactions.

SEC Begins Drive to Recover Unclaimed Dividends

The campaign, which began with a town hall meeting in Lagos on Thursday, is aimed at sensitising investors on the existence of unclaimed monies, the role of the National Investor Protection Fund (NIPF) and the procedures for verifying and recovering legitimate claims.

Emomotimi Agama, director-general of SEC, who was represented at the event by Hafsat Rufai, director, Registration and Exchanges, Market Infrastructure Department, said the initiative was necessary to ensure that funds belonging to investors were returned to their rightful owners.

Agama said unclaimed monies administered by the NIPF included return monies from public offers, scheme consideration from mergers, acquisitions and corporate restructuring transactions, as well as other funds belonging to investors that had remained unclaimed.

He noted that the Commission considered it unacceptable for investors’ funds to remain unclaimed, adding that many investors and their families were either unaware that such monies existed or did not know the procedures for recovering them.

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Agama said the SEC Board had approved a nationwide public enlightenment campaign to sensitise Nigerians on unclaimed monies, the role of the NIPF and the process for making legitimate claims.

He said the Lagos programme marked the commencement of the outreach, which would subsequently cover the six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory.

The director-general said the campaign would also address the transmission of securities following the death of an investor, noting that families were often unaware that their deceased relatives owned shares or other capital market investments.

He said even when beneficiaries were aware of such investments, many lacked knowledge of the legal and administrative procedures required to obtain probate or letters of administration and transmit the investments to the rightful beneficiaries.

Agama said the Lagos programme included an expert session on probate administration and the transmission of securities to demystify the process and provide practical guidance to investors and their families.

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He urged investors to maintain proper records of their investments and encouraged families to take steps to preserve inherited wealth.

The SEC DG also warned Nigerians against Ponzi schemes and other fraudulent investment arrangements, saying fraudsters continued to exploit economic pressures and digital platforms to lure unsuspecting members of the public with promises of guaranteed and unusually high returns.

He urged the public to be cautious of investment opportunities offering risk-free returns, stressing that investor education and vigilance remained critical to combating financial fraud.

Speaking on behalf of Lawal Pedro, attorney-general and commissioner for Justice,Lagos State, Olujoke Ogunojemite, deputy director in the Ministry of Justice, commended the SEC for extending the campaign to Lagos and recognising the role of legal institutions in resolving issues relating to unclaimed dividends and other assets.

She said the issue had a practical impact on beneficiaries who were unable to access assets after the death of their loved ones.

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Ogunojemite said the ministry was committed to ensuring that legal processes did not become barriers to beneficiaries seeking to recover legitimate assets.

She described the SEC’s outreach as commendable, saying it would help restore assets to their rightful beneficiaries.

 

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NRS Harps on e-Invoicing to Boost Tax Compliance, Curb Revenue Leakages

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The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) said the rollout of electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) will strengthen tax compliance, curb revenue leakages and improve transparency in tax administration as it moves to fully digitise the country’s tax system.

The Project Lead, NRS e-Invoicing Project, Mohammed Bawa, stated this at the DigiTax E-Invoicing Compliance Breakfast Session held in Lagos.

The event, organised by DigiTax, an NRS-accredited e-invoicing platform, formed part of efforts to support the agency’s ongoing education and sensitisation campaign on the e-invoicing mandate.

Bawa said the initiative aligns with global trends in tax digitization and is expected to help improve Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which remains one of the lowest in Africa.

According to him, the system will provide the NRS with greater visibility into transactions across sectors, formalise activities within the informal economy and standardise invoice formats nationwide using globally recognized invoice schemas.

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He added that e-invoicing would improve operational efficiency for both businesses and tax authorities while supporting the NRS’ transition from manual and electronic tax administration processes to a fully automated system-to-system interaction model.

Bawa noted that the legal framework for implementation is backed by the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, which prescribes penalties for non-compliance.

He disclosed that the NRS has completed onboarding large taxpayers and is preparing to enforce compliance with defaulting entities.

According to him, medium taxpayers are expected to begin compliance in the third quarter of 2026, while onboarding of emerging taxpayers will commence in 2027, with full adoption targeted for all taxpayers by the end of 2028.

Bawa urged taxpayers yet to be onboarded onto the platform to begin the process and work with accredited service providers to ensure compliance.

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Speaking at the event, Country Director of DigiTax Nigeria, Olumide Akinsola, urged businesses to look beyond their internal systems and assess the compliance status of suppliers and counterparties.

He warned that businesses whose suppliers fail to transmit invoices through the MBS platform risk losing eligibility to claim Value Added Tax (VAT) input credits on such transactions, describing the resulting supply chain exposure as a significant commercial risk that many organisations have yet to quantify.

Akinsola also announced the launch of DigiTax’s white paper, ‘The State of E-Invoicing Readiness in Nigeria,’ which examines compliance adoption trends and the readiness gap across different taxpayer segments.

He added that DigiTax operates in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), noting that experience from those markets shows businesses that integrate early are better positioned to avoid disruptions when enforcement begins.

 

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