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FXTM Analysis: Hard Brexit Fears Inspire Sterling Bears

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Sterling/Dollar stumbled to fresh 31 year lows at 1.2736 during trading on Tuesday as the horrible combination of Brexit anxieties and a resurgent Dollar encouraged bears to install repeated rounds of selling.

It seems Theresa May’s sanguine attitude to leaving the European Union while focusing on immigration may have sparked concerns of a potential hard Brexit consequently leaving the Sterling vulnerable to steep losses.

Although investors were provided some clarity when March 2017 was the date set to invoking the article 50, the uncertainty over how the Brexit negotiations will take place in the period after continues to haunt investor attraction towards the pound.

It should be kept in mind that the persistent Brexit fears have always had a firm grip on the Sterling with explosive levels of volatility expected in the coming months as anxiety mounts ahead of the article 50 invoke date.

With the Dollar strengthening amid renewed US rate hike expectations, the GBPUSD could trade lower as Sterling bears attack.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is heavily bearish as prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support around 1.2800 could transform into a dynamic resistance which encourages a further decline lower towards 1.2700.

Stock Markets Edge Higher
Financial markets could receive a welcome boost this week if the combination of easing Deutsche Bank concerns and rising oil prices bolster investor risk sentiment.

Asian stocks have already commenced Tuesday on a firm footing following Yen’s weakness which propelled the Nikkei into gains.

In Europe, Sterling’s vulnerability from the ongoing Brexit concerns turbo charged the FTSE100 +1.34% higher as of writing.

Although Wall Street closed in losses on Monday following the firm US ISM manufacturing data that renewed expectations of a US interest rate increase this year, the bullish domino from Asia and Europe could elevate American stocks.

While the short term gains repeatedly displayed in global stocks have been somewhat impressive, it should be kept in mind that the ingredients for a bear market continue to linger in the background.

The renewed Brexit anxieties have noticeably left investors on edge while the uncertainty over the looming presidential election weighs on risk sentiment.

Stock markets have entered a phase of extreme sensitivity and it could take an unexpected catalyst to trigger a market-shaking selloff.

Dollar Bulls on the Offense
Dollar bulls were installed with inspiration on Monday following the firm ISM Manufacturing PMI of 51.5 which renewed optimism over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates this year.

If US domestic data continue to follow this positive pattern then the central bank could be provided a justifiable reason to raise US interest rates in December 2016.

Investors may direct their attention towards Friday’s Non-Farm payroll report for additional clarity on the health of the US labour force in this period of global uncertainty. Dollar bulls are on the offense and this can be seen in the Dollar Index which has turned bullish on the daily timeframe. A decisive breakout and daily close above 96.00 could entice buyers to send prices higher towards 96.50.

WTI Bulls Challenge $49
WTI Crude received a lifeline last week following the unexpected OPEC preliminary deal which instantly renewed optimism over a potential freeze deal agreement in November.

While the gains displayed in oil were impressive, the upside may have been capped as the persistent oversupply concerns passively haunted investor attraction towards the commodity.

Although OPEC has agreed that output may be cut by 700,000 barrels a day, this has not been officially confirmed with members still producing record output levels in the saturated market. The cartel may be commended on their ability to exploit oils sensitivity to create speculative boosts in prices but such may come at a heavy cost.

From a technical standpoint, although WTI is turning bullish on the daily timeframe buyers are struggling to take prices above the $49 resistance. A breakdown below $47.50 could open a path back lower towards $46.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
Gold stumbled to near two-week lows on Tuesday as the strengthening Dollar encouraged sellers to attack.

Renewed expectations over the Fed raising US interest rates this year has pressured the zero-yielding metal further with prices currently hovering above the $1305 support. If Friday’s NFP exceeds expectations, then Gold could be destined for more punishment with prices potentially conquering $1305.

From a technical standpoint, the yellow metal is bearish on the daily timeframe as prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. A breakdown below $1305 could open a path towards $1285.


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E-Financial

FCCPC Barks as Loan Apps Continue to Harass Customers

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Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has said steps are being taken to tackle loan Apps services providers that engage in harassing tactics against customers.

FCCPC Barks as Loan Apps Continue to Harass Customers

FCCPC also reiterated its commitment to ensure legal and ethical operations in digital lending

Adamu Abdullahi, acting chairman of FCCPC, emphasized that such practices would soon become a thing of the past, as the Commission has initiated measures to tackle the issue head-on.

Abdullahi stated, “It will soon become obsolete in Nigeria for online platforms, often referred to as loan sharks, to provide quick money to individuals for urgent needs.”

He expressed concern over the detrimental effects of these loan companies resorting to sending distressing messages, including personal pictures, to all contacts of borrowers who fail to repay on time.

This form of harassment, according to Abdullahi, has led to various challenges in Nigeria, including job loss due to embarrassment and disgrace inflicted upon borrowers.

Stating  the Commission’s stance on the matter, Abdullahi stressed, “We do not condone such practices, as they constitute harassment of customers, even though it may not be directly within our purview.”

He revealed that FCCPC has collaborated with major regulatory bodies such as Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Human Rights Commission to establish a committee aimed at addressing the issue comprehensively.

Abdullahi further disclosed that, upon discovering that these loan companies operate solely online without physical offices or identifiable managing directors, FCCPC took measures to request the removal of their applications from Google and Apple stores.

Additionally, cooperation with the CBN led to the blocking of their accounts.

 

 


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IMF Urges CBN to License Cryptocurrency Dealers

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has explained why the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should issue operating licences or register cryptocurrency dealers.

IMF Urges CBN to License Cryptocurrency Dealers

In its 2024 Staff Report released at the weekend, the IMF recommended that global crypto trading platforms be registered or licensed in Nigeria, like similar operators, the Bureaux De Change (BDCs), which are licensed by the CBN to carry out forex transactions at the retail end of the market.

The IMF advised that such crypto trading platforms should be subjected to the same regulatory requirements applicable to financial intermediaries, following the principle of same activity, same risk, and same regulation.

The CBN had announced that cryptocurrency traders used peer-to-peer trading to manipulate the naira exchange rate against the dollar and other global currencies.

The apex bank asserted in February that Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, had processed $26 billion in untraceable transactions in its Nigeria unit alone.

To protect the naira from value erosion and reverse the negative impact in the financial system, the CBN subsequently stopped banks and other financial institutions from banking cryptocurrency traders.

Aside several other factors causing naira’s slide, like rising import bills, medical tourism, and tuition fees payment abroad, exchange rate manipulation by cryptocurrency traders remains a major contributory factor.

IMF said: “Rapid growth of transactions on FX trading platforms poses new challenges. At the end of February, the authorities closed the operations of Binance and other crypto-asset trading platforms that were being used by Nigerians to facilitate capital flight – neither the identity of traders nor the origin of their funds could be traced.”

“The authorities also revoked the licences of 4,173 Bureaux De Change (BDCs) that failed to comply with CBN accounting and reporting requirements. Staff recommends that global crypto trading platforms be registered or licensed in Nigeria and subjected to the same regulatory requirements applicable to financial intermediaries following the principle of same activity, same risk, and same regulation.”


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NoOnes Super App Surpasses 200,000 Downloads

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NoOnes, the financial communication super app has announced it has broken past 200,000 downloads despite launching just over a year ago in April 2023.

NoOnes Super App Surpasses 200,000 Downloads

With the new figures representing a 300% surge in daily downloads since January 2024, the platform has also secured a 400% rise in user signups over the last three months, accelerating NoOnes’ global drive for financial empowerment by connecting people worldwide to conversations and payments.

In recent months, the platform’s meteoric rise has been primarily driven by strong growth in Kenya, Cameroon and South Africa, which have heavily benefited from NoOnes’ comprehensive suite of features.

Including over 250 payment methods, global chat functionalities for seamless cross-border communication and a secure BTC wallet, the app is rapidly emerging as the go-to platform to serve the needs of underbanked populations, spearheading  economic equality through Bitcoin adoption.

Speaking about the new milestone, Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said “This announcement isn’t just about the huge momentum we’ve rapidly built as a new player in the crypto space, it’s a testament to the massive appetite for financial empowerment in Africa and the wider Global South. Just a year ago, we launched NoOnes with a clear mission – to lead the charge on dismantling financial apartheid once and for all and our new figures not only recognise the immense dedication of our team to this goal over the last few months, but are also a serious indicator of things to come.”

Available on Google Play and iOS, NoOnes was launched to empower the financial freedom of the Global South through Bitcoin.

The platform enables users to move money freely and faster, without the friction and challenges associated with legacy banking and financial institutions.

Its business ideology hinges on the belief that peer-to-peer is the world’s only true free market and that Bitcoin is the new global financial architecture poised to uplift the people of Africa, Latin America and South East Asia.

NoOnes’ biggest markets to date are Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, India and the Philippines, accruing over 400,000 users worldwide to date,  and achieving profitability within just under 4 months of operations.

Despite its recent regulatory challenges, Africa’s cryptocurrency sector has continued its strong upward trajectory with Kenya, Cameroon, and South Africa emerging alongside Nigeria as the continent’s most prominent players.

According to Google Trends data, Kenya recently ranked among the top-15 crypto-curious countries globally and Cameroon currently boasts an active crypto user base of just under one million, accounting for nearly 7% of its active population.

With South Africa’s financial conduct regulator approving licences for crypto firms in April 2024, it is one of Africa’s most progressive countries for the industry, ranking amongst the highest countries in the world for crypto adoption globally.


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