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Sad! Value of Naira Determined by Forex ‘Black’ Market- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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An economic research analyst has bemoaned the inability of the Central Bank of Nigeria to contain the free fall of the Naira in the currency market.

Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at Forex Time (FXTM) said that the economic disequilibrium has left naira’s value to be determined by the ‘black market’ foreign exchange market.

Otunuga who spoke during an exclusive with Nigeria CommunicationsWeek said that the CBN must realize that foreign investors and indeed the world are “watching Nigeria’s economy like movie series”.

A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets. Lukman provides in-depth analysis on the global currency and commodity markets and is often quoted by leading international media outlets such as: MarketWatch, CNBC, NASDAQ, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian and Yahoo.

Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets. Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.

Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. He spoke to peter oluka. Excerpt.

Predictions About Nigeria’s Economy 2017
“First, the world is actually watching Nigeria’s economy and issues like series. Right now, everybody knows that Nigeria is under pressure. Last year we spoke about the economy and I said diversification will be the key. This year the focus is on getting the economy out of recession. So, the emphasis is now on policies. I feel that in the next six months Nigeria will remain at risk because of obvious factors like investments from China. When China sneezes Nigeria catches cold. Donald Trump’s policies will have impact in Nigeria. I read in the newspaper that he is already considering limiting the number of visa issuance to the country (Nigeria).

“These are external factors. Internally, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be under pressure. They have actually kept the monitory policy interest rate at 14%. The truth is they are under pressure which is the reason they are under conscious approach. Even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank gave Nigeria’s economy a positive outlook for the year 2017; to get out of recession, I don’t think it will be that easy.

New Approaches CBN Should Adopt
“On the physical side of the economy there is no clear direction. Everybody is waiting to see what will happen. This speaks on the fact the World Development Bank (WDB) has kept Nigeria from the $1billion loan, because there is no transparency or clear direction on how it will be utilized. But on monetary side, I think Nigeria may be forced to devalue the Nigeria.

“The official rate is about N305 to $1, but they may take it to N380 to close the gap with the black market.

Manufacturers, Industries Should Be Given Priority In Forex Disbursement
“It is very interest to bring in the manufacturing sector in here, because the CBN has allocated about 60% of the forex to them as they represent about 10% of the GDP. Nigeria’s problem is cost caused inflation. Let me break it down. We have a situation where manufacturers imports raw materials but do not have access to the official forex rate. Of course, they need profit, so they push the cost to the consumers. It keeps circulating and should be checkmate to avoid hyper-inflation.

Oil and Gas
“Nigeria plans to diversity on long term, but in the short term it is still about oil. And OPEC gave Nigeria a very good trust to make comeback if she (Nigeria) can still produce about 2.2million barrels per day. But if you consider the militancy in the Niger-Delta, last December, the country was producing 1.4million barrels per day. So, we have a situation here that even as OPEC is magnanimous to the country by taking a supply cut, still Nigeria may not be able to take the advantage. I don’t even know how Nigeria will get to 2million barrels per day from the present output should the militancy continues.

Trump’s Policies, China and Nigeria
“The main thrust of Donald Trump’s government is protectionism- the Americans first, which is de-globalisation. So, we have a situation where all the countries that had access to United States will lose such opportunities. They need to approach the alternative, which is China, the second strongest economy in the world. How will it impact Africa? Nigeria? Of course, if you look at China it is giving and getting a lot from Nigeria.

“So, when China gains it is to the advantage of Nigeria. Trump has already abolished the TPP; which is just a way to remove trade from China. This could be a situation where Africa comes back (up); where other nations measure up by taking critical decisions.

Leveraging Nigeria- China Trade Agreement on Yuan
“I still think that agreement is valid, although there are concerns that China is facing pressures, but we have to keep in mind that what Nigeria needs now is not to make the dollar king. Dollar is not the legal tender in this country but a typical Nigerian would prefer to have dollar to Naira; that speaks volume. Therefore, we do a lot of businesses with China and it will do us good to dust up that agreement.

Why FDI Is Eluding Nigeria
“First, let’s refer to how Fietch downgraded Nigeria’s long term rating to negatives. Initially, that will discourage foreign investors. I understand that in March Nigeria is trying to get the $1B Euro-bond. This news of Fietch turning Nigeria’s rating down will affect the Euro-bond. First, Nigeria should establish foreign exchange rate stability. No body wants to invest in a speculative environment.

Bridging CBN and Black Market Forex Rates: How Possible?
“The CBN needs to understand the bitter truth: value of the Naira is determined by the (forex) black market. Some people has said that the fundamentals behind the black market do not make sense, but it is simply the principle of demand and supply that makes the market what it is. Now, we are talking about N500 to $1; that is the true value of the Naira.

The quicker the CBN understands the truth and actually allow the Naira have a free flow; otherwise inflation will continue to skyrocket. If they do that, it is going to be a short term pain but will be beneficial at the end.

Late Passage of the Appropriation Bill (Budget) And Impact On Economy
“For certainty this has huge impact on the economy. For instance the 2016 budget was released about five months later. It causes uncertainties in the economy, because it shows there is no transparency. Uncertainty will also cause people to offload the Naira.

Economic Diversification
“The more I look at agriculture I see that even though God Blessed Nigeria with oil, but it has been a curse on the economy. This wasn’t the situation in the 60s’ and 70s’. So, we really need to embrace agriculture and develop the infrastructure. Power is very much in demand. No economy performs better than it is doing in power generation. We need to fix the roads and other amenities, having in mind that technology is the way to go too.

“Take a leaf from the United States where Dollar has appreciated so much just because the new administration sad they are going to be focusing on the physical side- massive infrastructure development. This is what Nigeria needs to do.

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN to Expand eNaira for Salaries, Pensions and Welfare Payments

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is outlining plans to process salaries, pensions, and social welfare benefits through the eNaira.

CBN to Expand eNaira for Salaries, Pensions and Welfare Payments

The proposal is outlined in the Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028 (PSV2028), a strategic roadmap aimed at transforming the eNaira from a pilot project into a core component of the country’s payment infrastructure.

Under the framework, the CBN plans to drive wider adoption by integrating the eNaira into government-to-person payments, payroll systems, offline transactions and financial services targeted at micro-enterprises.

Launched in October 2021 as Africa’s first Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the eNaira was introduced to promote financial inclusion, reduce transaction costs, improve remittance flows and support Nigeria’s transition to a cashless economy. However, adoption has remained below expectations despite continued regulatory support.

According to the CBN, the digital currency framework will be reviewed and strengthened to better align with emerging market needs.

The roadmap identifies government disbursements as a key driver for increasing usage and integrating the eNaira into everyday transactions.

If implemented, public sector salaries, pension payments, conditional cash transfers and other welfare programmes could be distributed through the platform, potentially improving payment efficiency and expanding access to digital financial services.

The roadmap also highlights programmable-money capabilities that could set the eNaira apart from traditional payment systems. These features include time-restricted spending, purpose-specific payments, automated payment splitting and dedicated sub-wallets for different financial needs.

The CBN believes these functionalities could improve transparency, strengthen fund management and enhance the effectiveness of targeted government interventions.

Beyond consumer payments, the apex bank said the eNaira could support settlement systems, banking operations and tokenised financial assets such as bonds and securities, strengthening Nigeria’s broader financial market infrastructure.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said the Payments System Vision 2028 strategy is designed to strengthen Nigeria’s position as a leading digital payments market while improving efficiency, resilience and inclusiveness across the financial system.

Despite millions of eNaira wallets being created and transactions worth approximately N22 billion processed, the digital currency has yet to achieve widespread everyday use.

The CBN identified challenges including limited merchant acceptance, weak integration with banking and fintech applications, and the absence of cross-border CBDC payment corridors.

To address these issues, the bank plans to position the eNaira as a preferred platform for government payments, remittances and trade settlements while opening its APIs to fintech firms for broader integration and innovation.

The CBN also intends to explore bilateral CBDC corridor pilots with major trade and remittance partners to facilitate faster and more efficient cross-border transactions.

For MSMEs, wider eNaira adoption could reduce transaction costs, improve access to digital payments, streamline government support programmes and create new opportunities for participation in Nigeria’s growing digital economy.

 

 


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CBN to Bar HoldCos from Influencing Banks’ Lending Decisions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the regulatory framework for Financial Holding Companies (HoldCos), including measures to strengthen the operational independence of subsidiaries by prohibiting parent companies from participating in lending decisions and credit approval processes.

CBN to Bar HoldCos from Influencing Banks’ Lending Decisions

The move would also require the HoldCos to maintain a minimum 51 per cent ownership stake in their subsidiaries.

A bank holding company is a corporation that owns a controlling interest in one or more banks but does not itself offer banking services.

The proposed reforms, contained in the ‘Exposure Draft of the Revised Guidelines for Licencing and Regulation of Financial Holding Companies in Nigeria,’ posted on the apex bank’s website, were aimed at strengthening governance, enhancing accountability and ensuring clearer ownership structures within Nigeria’s increasingly diversified financial groups.

In prohibiting parent companies from participating in lending decisions, it stated that a HoldCo shall not: “Be involved in credit administration and approval processes of any of its subsidiaries.”

It added: “Loans by a banking subsidiary to its HoldCo would be regarded as a return of capital and deducted from the capital of the bank in computing the bank’s capital adequacy ratio.”

According to CBN, the review became necessary after years of implementing the existing framework introduced in 2014.

The draft signed by Dr. Rita Sike, director, Financial Policy and Regulation Department, stated: “Following several years of implementation, the CBN has identified areas within the extant Guidelines that require enhancement to strengthen the operational effectiveness and regulatory oversight of Financial Holding Companies.

“Accordingly, the Guidelines has been reviewed to address observed gaps and align with evolving regulatory and market developments.”

One of the most significant changes proposed by the regulator is the introduction of a mandatory majority ownership requirement for all subsidiaries under financial holding companies.

Highlighting the key amendments, the apex bank stated that the revised framework would introduce, “Ownership and Control Requirements: Requiring FHCs to hold a minimum of 51 per cent equity stake in each subsidiary and to be registered as a person with significant control by the appropriate corporate registration authority.”

The proposed requirement is expected to strengthen the ability of HoldCos to exercise effective oversight over subsidiaries while eliminating ambiguities around control and accountability within financial groups.

The CBN also moved to draw a clear line between the responsibilities of parent companies and those of subsidiaries by prohibiting HoldCos from interfering in operational and business decisions.

According to the draft guidelines, a HoldCo shall not “Arrogate to itself any of the powers or functions of the board or management of any of its subsidiaries or associates.”

The regulator further stated that: “Without prejudice to Section 18 of BOFIA 2020, the practice whereby members of the Board or Management of a subsidiary attend meetings of the Board of the HoldCo and vice versa is prohibited.”

In a particularly strong provision targeted at preserving the independence of subsidiary institutions, the apex bank stated that a HoldCo shall not: “Interfere in the day-to-day activities of the subsidiaries.”

The draft further provides that parent companies must not compel subsidiaries to take instructions from them in the conduct of business.

According to the CBN, a HoldCo shall not: “Require its subsidiaries (including any employee, staff, manager, officer or director thereof) to take directives or act on the instructions of the HoldCo in its decision-making process, or in relation to the conduct of its business in any way whatsoever.”

Beyond governance reforms, the proposed framework also introduces stricter capital requirements for financial holding companies.

The CBN stated: “A HoldCo shall have and maintain a minimum regulatory capital which shall exceed the sum of the minimum regulatory capital of its subsidiaries by at least 20 per cent.”

It added that only paid-in capital would be recognised when assessing compliance with the requirement.

The draft further clarified: “It is the capital of the HoldCo that is applied to the subsidiaries. Consequently, excess capital in one subsidiary shall not be used to make up a shortfall in another subsidiary.”

The revised framework equally tightens oversight of shared services arrangements among members of financial groups.

According to the apex bank, “The HoldCo shall not engage in any transaction or maintain any business relationship with any of its subsidiaries, except such transaction is conducted at arm’s length.”

The guidelines further state that: “Shared services shall be provided at arm’s length. Transactions in respect of such services shall require the consent of the boards of directors of the FHC and the relevant subsidiary.”

To ensure accountability, the CBN directed that: “A value for money audit in respect of shared services shall be conducted at least once every two years by an approved auditor and the report submitted to the Director, Banking Supervision Department, CBN not later than March 31 of the year following the year the audit relates.”

The regulator also tightened rules governing intra-group lending and insider-related transactions, declaring that: “There shall be no insider-related borrowings within a HoldCo.”


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Access Holdings Affirms Long-Term Value Strategy @ 4th AGM

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L-r: Ibironke Adeyemi, Director, Access Holdings Plc; Bolaji Agbede, Executive Director; Innocent Ike, Group Chief Executive Officer; Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Chairman; Sunday Ekwochi, Company Secretary; Ojinika Olaghere, Director; Fatimah Bello-Ismail, Director; and Lanre Bamisebi, Executive Director, at the 4th Annual General Meeting of Access Holdings Plc, in Lagos
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Access Holdings Plc has held its 4th Annual General Meeting (AGM), reaffirming its strategic transition towards long-term value creation, balance sheet resilience, and disciplined growth, even as it navigates a dynamic and evolving operating environment.

Speaking at the AGM, the Chairman, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, CFR, emphasised that the defining test of a financial institution is not merely its capacity for growth, but its ability to grow profitably, sustainably, and with discipline over time.

He noted that Access Holdings’ performance in 2025 reflects a deliberate approach to strengthening the institution’s long-term fundamentals while maintaining strong financial performance.

The Group delivered Profit Before Tax of ₦1.007 trillion, underscoring the strength of its diversified platform and expanding earnings base across key markets. Total assets increased to ₦51.56 trillion, while customer deposits grew strongly, reflecting sustained franchise momentum and deepening customer trust.

The Chairman, however, stressed that these results must be viewed within the context of the Group’s prudent risk management actions during the year. Access Holdings accelerated provisions on legacy and regulatory forbearance credit exposures, resulting in elevated impairment charges.

He explained that the Group consciously prioritised balance sheet strength and long-term resilience over short-term earnings optimisation.

“Periods of economic uncertainty often reveal more about an institution than periods of uninterrupted growth. Our focus remains on building a business that is not only growing, but improving in the quality, resilience, and sustainability of its earnings,” he stated.

The AGM highlighted the Group’s continued evolution beyond traditional banking into a diversified financial services ecosystem, with growing contributions from investment management, insurance, pensions, consumer finance, and payments.

While banking remains the Group’s core earnings engine, emerging growth platforms, including Access ARM Pensions, Access Insurance Brokers, Oxygen X Finance, and Hydrogen Payments, are expanding its footprint across digital finance, consumer lending, retirement services, and payments, thereby strengthening the Group’s long-term earnings mix and scalability.

Looking ahead, the Chairman reiterated the strategic imperative underpinning the Group’s next phase of growth:

“Our strategy, From Scale to Value, reflects the natural evolution of our journey. Scale created opportunity; value creation is how we fully realise it.”

He noted that while the Group continues to generate strong returns, ensuring that earnings per share consistently exceed the cost of capital remains central to unlocking sustainable shareholder value. He also acknowledged the significant unrealised value embedded within the Group’s international subsidiaries and reiterated management’s focus on improving market recognition of that intrinsic value over time.

The Board also addressed shareholders’ concerns regarding dividend payments, clarifying that the temporary suspension of dividend distributions was a consequence of regulatory compliance requirements rather than any deterioration in the Group’s financial performance.

Aig-Imoukhuede reaffirmed that the Group’s earnings capacity remains strong and that the Board’s position reflects adherence to supervisory expectations and prudent capital management principles.

He assured shareholders of the Board’s commitment to resuming dividend payments as soon as the relevant regulatory conditions are satisfied.

“Our approach is clear: capital retained today must translate into greater value tomorrow and sustainable returns for our shareholders.”

Access Holdings further highlighted progress in strengthening governance and leadership continuity. During the year, Innocent C. Ike was appointed Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, while the Board was reinforced through the appointment of Ibironke Adeyemi as an Independent Non-Executive Director.

Shareholders also expressed appreciation for the outstanding contributions of Bolaji Agbede, Executive Director, Business Development, who successfully led the management team as Acting Group Chief Executive Officer prior to the appointment of Mr. Ike.

The Chairman noted that the leadership transition was executed seamlessly, ensuring continuity of strategy, operational stability, and stakeholder confidence.

Despite continuing macroeconomic uncertainties across its operating markets, Access Holdings expressed confidence in its strategic positioning, underpinned by disciplined execution, a diversified business model, a strengthened capital base, and a clear focus on sustainable value creation.

Concluding his remarks, Aig-Imoukhuede reaffirmed the Group’s long-term commitment to shareholders: “Our responsibility is to justify the confidence of our shareholders by building an institution that endures, one defined by clarity of purpose, discipline of execution, and sustainable value creation over time.”


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