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FXTM Analysis: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily on Sentiment in Nigeria

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion. While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

 Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation.

The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance. With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February. While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards.

While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange.

Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment.

Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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E-Financial

NIBBS to Boost Financial Inclusion with Offline Payment Solutions

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The Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) is looking into offline payment solutions as part of its efforts to increase financial inclusion and reach Nigerians who have limited or no access to mobile data.

The project was announced by Ngover Nwankwo, NIBSS executive director for business and products, at the 2026 CHBO Conference in Lagos.

Nwankwo pointed out that the rapid expansion of digital payments must be matched by purposeful inclusion initiatives, cautioning that innovation should not exclude groups of the population that still rely largely on cash.

She emphasised that cash is still an important element of Nigeria’s economy and that digital and cash-based payments must coexist to safeguard disadvantaged users while boosting efficiency for digitally connected customers.

Nwanko also commended banks for operational performance, particularly during the December 2025 cash demand period, which she said was met with few public complaints.

Lloyd Onaghinon, Bankers Warehouse Plc,had similar sentiments on the enduring need of cash. He explained that cash usage remained high globally due to cultural, demographic, and trust-related factors

However, he cautioned that surplus currency outside the banking system undermines financial intermediation and monetary policy efficacy, demanding greater cooperation among regulators, banks, and other stakeholders.

Director Solaja Olayemi, representing the Central Bank of Nigeria, stated that around 90% of Nigeria’s cash remained outside the banking system and encouraged banks to collaborate with fintechs and microfinance institutions..

He added that fintechs with substantial agent networks, such as Moniepoint, OPay, and Kuda, are better positioned to drive inclusion, with some companies now holding national licenses.

 


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CBN Upgrades Licences of Opay, Moniepoint, Kuda, Palmpay, Paga to National Status

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the upgrade of operating licences for major FinTech companies and Microfinance Banks (MFBs), including Opay, Moniepoint MFB, Kuda Bank, Palmpay and Paga, to national status, formalising their nationwide operations after fulfilling regulatory compliance requirements.

The development addresses the rapid expansion of these digital platforms, which have leveraged mobile technology and extensive agent networks to serve millions across Nigeria, outgrowing their previous regional or state-level licences.

Yemi Solaja, Director of the CBN’s Other Financial Institutions Supervision Department, announced the upgrades during the annual conference of the Committee of Heads of Banks’ Operations (CHBO) in Lagos.

Institutions like Moniepoint MFB, Opay, Kuda Bank and others have now been upgraded. In practice, their operations are already nationwide, Solaja stated, highlighting the mismatch between prior licensing scopes and actual service footprints.

He underscored the critical need for physical customer support infrastructure, especially for informal sector users who form the bulk of their clientele, noting that Most of their customers operate in the informal sector. They need a clear point of contact if any issues arise.

With national licences, these institutions must adhere to elevated standards, including a minimum capital base of N5 billion for national MFBs, establishment of dedicated offices for complaint resolution, and rigorous Know-Your-Customer (KYC) protocols to bolster consumer protection and financial system stability.

The reforms align with CBN’s broader strategy to integrate large-scale digital operators into a robust regulatory framework commensurate with their reach, while harnessing their potential to deepen financial inclusion across Nigeria’s underserved populations.

This milestone follows intensified oversight, exemplified by 2024 penalties of N1 billion each imposed on Moniepoint and Opay for KYC non-compliance during routine audits, alongside similar actions against other players like Kuda and Palmpay, which prompted operational overhauls.

Such measures reflect the apex bank’s commitment to balancing innovation with risk management in the fintech sector, which has revolutionised access to banking services for millions in the informal economy through agent banking and mobile wallets.

Industry observers view the national upgrades as a vote of confidence in these trailblazers, while signalling that sustained compliance remains non-negotiable for their continued dominance in Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem.

 


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NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

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At least 13,417 individuals linked to fraudulent activities in Nigeria’s financial system have been captured on the Person of Interest Portal jointly developed by the Nigeria Inter Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), security agencies and other stakeholders.

NIBSS, Others Flag 13,417 Nigerian Fraudsters on Person of Interest Portal

Premier Oiwoh, managing director of NIBSS,  disclosed this while speaking on ongoing efforts to curb fraud in the payments ecosystem, noting that the portal which contains names and photographs of suspects has been actively used by law enforcement agencies since it began capturing data from 2019.

Oiwoh, while noting that fraud management remains a core responsibility of NIBSS, noted that the number of reported fraud cases has declined over the past five years, the value of losses remains a key concern for regulators and operators.

According to him, actual fraud losses stood at about N17.67 billion in 2023 before rising sharply to N52.26 billion in 2024, mainly due to a single incident involving N31.1 billion by one entity. He noted, however, that losses dropped significantly in 2025, reflecting tighter controls and improved collaboration across the industry.

He explained that Lagos continues to account for the highest concentration of fraud cases due to its position as the country’s commercial hub, while Abuja has also recorded a notable rise, with other states still featuring in reported incidents.

By transaction channel, Oiwoh said fraud is most prevalent in e-commerce and internet banking, followed by POS, mobile and web platforms.

He identified social engineering as the most common technique used by fraudsters, warning that insider abuse now poses the greatest threat to the system.

“Insider involvement is high, and recent investigations have confirmed this. Many of the fraud cases we are seeing today involve insiders, including former bankers,” he stated, noting that coordinated industry action has yielded results, and that joint efforts last year alone prevented losses of about N20 billion that could have been lost to fraud.

He raised concern over non-reporting of fraud incidents revealing that fraud reporting declined by about 34 per cent in the last quarter of 2025.

He warned that failure to report allows perpetrators to move freely between institutions undetected.

“In several cases investigated last year, individuals involved in fraud simply moved to other institutions because incidents were not reported. Non-reporting is unacceptable,” he said.

He said NIBSS, working with the CBN, the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit, and security agencies, has integrated centralised data systems, including industry watch lists, politically exposed persons databases, and customer account repositories, into the Person of Interest Portal to strengthen monitoring, identity management, and fraud prevention.

Credit… Leadership


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