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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria’s Economy Remains Resilient

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Nigeria has displayed some resilience against the ongoing recessionary headwinds in 2017, with domestic data currently suggesting early signs of a potential recovery in economic growth.

An appreciation in oil prices at the start of the year and increased oil production domestically have positively impacted the nation, while Central Bank intervention created some form of economic stability.

With the solid Sales Manager Index for April suggesting that the Nigerian economy is slowly creeping out of recessionary territories, the overall outlook could start to look encouraging. Sentiment may be in the process of turning bullish and the IMF’s projections of growth hitting 0.8% should compound to the positivity over a recovery in economic momentum.

The Naira clawed back some losses against the Dollar this year, with prices trading around 385N on the black market exchange as of writing.

The sharp acceleration of external reserves allowed the Central Bank of Nigeria to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the interbank markets, which consequently narrowed the gap between the official and black market exchange.

Although the Naira has the ability to appreciate further if the CBN continues to supply foreign exchange, questions may be asked over the sustainability of this method and the impact it will have on the nation’s external reserves. A situation where oil prices start to depreciate sharply and Nigeria’s reserve diminishes could expose the Nigerian Naira to downside risks.

As the largest economy in Africa embarks on a quest to regain economic stability, the Central Bank of Nigeria should strive to allow market forces to decide the true value of the Nigerian Nigeria.

While a currency devaluation could weaken the Naira considerably in the short to medium term, the longer term benefits which include a potential increase in foreign investor confidence may be advantageous for economic growth.

With the multiple exchange rate system still a gray area that needs to be rectified, speculation could heighten further over the CBN taking some form of action in the future.

On the foreign exchange front, repeated Dollar weakness from the receding US rate hike expectations may support the Naira further on the black market exchange.

Taking a deeper look into Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, inflation in March displayed early signs of cooling with consumer prices reaching 17.26%. Expectations have heightened over the nation’s inflation trending downwards this year if the Naira stabilizes and such may improve the purchasing power of Nigerians.

An increase in purchasing power may boost the demand for consumer and industrial goods ultimately feeding back to economic growth. Although the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to maintain a passive approach as the nation slowly recovers, a hawkish monetary stance could be adopted by year-end if the upside momentum gains further traction.

External risks such as oil market volatility and the actions of the Federal Reserve may impact Nigeria this year, with much attention directed towards the ongoing OPEC developments. Oil markets remain gripped by the oversupply concerns with the resurgence of US Shale obstructing OPEC’s efforts to stabilizing the oil markets.

Although OPEC has shown optimism over a potential extension of the supply cut agreement reviving the oil markets, price action states otherwise. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude has found itself pressured on the daily charts with repeated weakness below $50 opening a path towards $45 in the medium to longer term.

While diversification still remains a dominant theme when focusing on Nigeria, investors have started to direct some attention towards the nation’s inflation, foreign exchange market and other forms of hard economic data.

With expectations mounting of lower inflation, and speculations heightened over the CNB stabilizing the foreign exchange market, sentiment towards the largest economy in Africa could receive a further boost.

As the second quarter of 2017 gets underway, markets will continue to observe how the Central Bank of Nigeria deals with the multiple exchange situation and if the CBN officially allows the forces of supply and demand to determine the equilibrium value of the Naira.

 


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E-Financial

Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

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Fidelity Bank Plc said it has raised the required minimum share capital for lenders with international authorisation, boosting its capital base as Nigerian lenders race to comply with tougher regulatory requirements scheduled to end by March 2026.

Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, GMD, Fidelity Bank

The push-up in its eligible capital, raised through a private placement, effectively placed Fidelity Bank among lenders that have successfully scaled through the regulatory mandate.

The Lagos-based bank, in a disclosure on the Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday, said the offer, which opened and closed on December 31, 2025, was approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Proceeds from the transaction lift Fidelity’s eligible capital to about N564.5 billion from N305.5 billion, subject to final regulatory approvals.

The private placement was carried out under a mandate granted by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on February 6, 2025, authorising the bank to issue up to 20 billion ordinary shares.

Fidelity did not disclose the pricing or investor mix for the transaction.

The fundraising caps an aggressive capital-raising drive by Fidelity over the past two years. In 2024, the lender raised N175.85 billion through a public offer and rights issue, which brought its eligible capital to N305.5 billion. That left a shortfall of about N194.5 billion relative to the new minimum capital threshold.

Nigeria’s central bank in 2024 announced a sweeping recapitalisation programme aimed at strengthening the banking system, raising the minimum capital for commercial banks with international authorisation to N500 billion.

The apex bank mandated an increment in capital for national banks, pushing it to N200 billion and N50 billion for regional banks. The 24‑month compliance window ends on March 31, 2026, a regulation that’s triggering a wave of equity issuances, merger talks, and balance-sheet restructuring across the sector.

Fidelity’s latest capital raise places it above the regulatory floor, potentially easing pressure on the bank as peers continue to tap markets. The additional capital is also expected to support balance-sheet expansion, larger ticket lending, and resilience against macroeconomic shocks in Africa’s fourth-largest economy, which has been grappling with currency volatility, double-digit inflation, and elevated interest rates.

Analysts stated the scale and speed of this transaction validate Fidelity Bank’s standing among tier‑one lenders. Recently, Fitch Ratings affirmed the bank’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ and upgraded its National Long‑Term Rating to ‘A+(nga)’, citing stronger capital buffers and improved profitability.

Fitch also recognised the bank’s expanding franchise, sound fundamentals, and healthy foreign‑currency liquidity, noting it was Nigeria’s sixth‑largest lender by assets at the end of 2024.


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Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases ‘My Year on Kuda’ 2025 Financial Recap

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Kuda Microfinance Bank has unveiled the 2025 edition of “My Year on Kuda,” its annual recap providing customers with personalised insights into their spending, saving, and money management habits from the previous year.

Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases 'My Year on Kuda' 2025 Financial Recap

Kuda Microfinance Bank

The tool analyses transaction data across categories like transfers, card payments, online purchases, and bills, revealing patterns such as highest-spending months, biggest payments, saving frequency, and savings from Kuda’s 25 free monthly transfers. Customers can compare 2025 activity against 2024, including income versus expenditure.

In an era of inflation and economic uncertainty, the recap promotes financial literacy by highlighting responsible borrowing via Kuda Overdraft usage, including access frequency, amounts borrowed, and repayment patterns.

Customer-shared screenshots on X reflect national trends: Nigeria recorded over 2.2 billion electronic transactions worth ₦285 trillion in Q1 2025, up 20 percent year-on-year, with POS terminals driving the shift to cashless commerce.

Kuda Group CEO Babs Ogundeyi, in the recap’s opening video, urged users: “Before you carry on with January, this is the perfect time to see everything you did with your money on Kuda last year and learn something.”

The feature underscores Kuda’s focus on actionable insights to help Nigerians navigate evolving personal finance amid shifting earning and spending behaviours.


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Wema Bank Launches SAW AI Voice Assistant for Seamless Banking on ALAT 2.0

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Wema Bank has introduced SAW, a new AI voice assistant integrated into the ALAT 2.0 app, allowing customers to manage finances through natural voice commands similar to Siri, Bixby, or Alexa.

Wema Bank Launches SAW AI Voice Assistant for Seamless Banking on ALAT 2.0

Wema Bank

SAW understands everyday language and delivers instant responses tailored to banking needs, such as checking account balances, transferring money, reviewing transactions, and accessing support.

This feature brings conversational banking to Nigerian users, eliminating complexity and enhancing accessibility.

The bank positions SAW as a pioneer in AI-powered financial services, aligning with global trends where millions interact daily with voice assistants for tasks like setting reminders or playing music.

ALAT 2.0 represents the next evolution in digital banking, making services more efficient, personal, and human-like for everyday Nigerians.


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