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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria’s Economy Remains Resilient

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Nigeria has displayed some resilience against the ongoing recessionary headwinds in 2017, with domestic data currently suggesting early signs of a potential recovery in economic growth.

An appreciation in oil prices at the start of the year and increased oil production domestically have positively impacted the nation, while Central Bank intervention created some form of economic stability.

With the solid Sales Manager Index for April suggesting that the Nigerian economy is slowly creeping out of recessionary territories, the overall outlook could start to look encouraging. Sentiment may be in the process of turning bullish and the IMF’s projections of growth hitting 0.8% should compound to the positivity over a recovery in economic momentum.

The Naira clawed back some losses against the Dollar this year, with prices trading around 385N on the black market exchange as of writing.

The sharp acceleration of external reserves allowed the Central Bank of Nigeria to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the interbank markets, which consequently narrowed the gap between the official and black market exchange.

Although the Naira has the ability to appreciate further if the CBN continues to supply foreign exchange, questions may be asked over the sustainability of this method and the impact it will have on the nation’s external reserves. A situation where oil prices start to depreciate sharply and Nigeria’s reserve diminishes could expose the Nigerian Naira to downside risks.

As the largest economy in Africa embarks on a quest to regain economic stability, the Central Bank of Nigeria should strive to allow market forces to decide the true value of the Nigerian Nigeria.

While a currency devaluation could weaken the Naira considerably in the short to medium term, the longer term benefits which include a potential increase in foreign investor confidence may be advantageous for economic growth.

With the multiple exchange rate system still a gray area that needs to be rectified, speculation could heighten further over the CBN taking some form of action in the future.

On the foreign exchange front, repeated Dollar weakness from the receding US rate hike expectations may support the Naira further on the black market exchange.

Taking a deeper look into Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, inflation in March displayed early signs of cooling with consumer prices reaching 17.26%. Expectations have heightened over the nation’s inflation trending downwards this year if the Naira stabilizes and such may improve the purchasing power of Nigerians.

An increase in purchasing power may boost the demand for consumer and industrial goods ultimately feeding back to economic growth. Although the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to maintain a passive approach as the nation slowly recovers, a hawkish monetary stance could be adopted by year-end if the upside momentum gains further traction.

External risks such as oil market volatility and the actions of the Federal Reserve may impact Nigeria this year, with much attention directed towards the ongoing OPEC developments. Oil markets remain gripped by the oversupply concerns with the resurgence of US Shale obstructing OPEC’s efforts to stabilizing the oil markets.

Although OPEC has shown optimism over a potential extension of the supply cut agreement reviving the oil markets, price action states otherwise. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude has found itself pressured on the daily charts with repeated weakness below $50 opening a path towards $45 in the medium to longer term.

While diversification still remains a dominant theme when focusing on Nigeria, investors have started to direct some attention towards the nation’s inflation, foreign exchange market and other forms of hard economic data.

With expectations mounting of lower inflation, and speculations heightened over the CNB stabilizing the foreign exchange market, sentiment towards the largest economy in Africa could receive a further boost.

As the second quarter of 2017 gets underway, markets will continue to observe how the Central Bank of Nigeria deals with the multiple exchange situation and if the CBN officially allows the forces of supply and demand to determine the equilibrium value of the Naira.

 


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E-Financial

Crypto Exchanges Begin Delisting Naira from P2P Platforms- SEC

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Crypto exchanges have commenced delisting of the Naira from Peer-to-Peer (P2P) trading platforms, following directives of the Office of the National Security Adviser and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Crypto Exchanges Begin Delisting Naira from P2P Platforms- SEC

P2P trading in the realm of cryptos is a decentralized method that allows individuals to buy and sell digital assets directly with one another.

In this system, P2P trading platforms serve as intermediaries, facilitating secure and trust-based transactions.

SEC explained that its checks have indicated that the Naira has been removed as a fiat currency option for transactions on KuCoin platform and the exchange has already begun the necessary adjustments to its technology to accommodate the delisting of the Naira as soon as practicable.

It explained that the removal of the Naira from the platforms limits the ability to manipulate the exchange rates against the Nigerian currency which is expected to further strengthen the value of the naira.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, acting director general of SEC, reacting to the delisting by KuCoin, expressed delight that the crypto exchanges were heeding the directives of ONSA and SEC, describing it as a welcome development.

He stated: “We are happy that they have started complying with the directives by the ONSA.  We ask that those involved in sharp practices that undermine national interest should cease and desist. It is in our interest as a people to protect what belongs to us.  Anyone that disobeys directives should be ready to face the full weight of the law”.

Agama added that as the apex regulator of the capital market, “SEC is co-operating  with the Office of the National Security Adviser, the  Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and other relevant agencies to achieve the national objective of making sure that illegality is not allowed to thrive”.

 

 

 


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Court Backs Banks to Collect Customers’ Social Media Handles

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A federal high court in Lagos has struck out a case against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over its directive requiring banks to collect and verify social media handles as part of their know-your-customer (KYC) requirement.

Court Backs Banks to Collect Customers’ Social Media Handles

In June 2023, the apex bank issued the directive, saying the aim is to prevent financial crime, and terrorism, as well as boost the precision and thoroughness of customer identification.

Chris Eke, the applicant and a customer, represented by Olubunmi Abayomi-Olukunle, a lawyer, had filed suit number FHC/L/CS/1281/2023 in July 2023, arguing the CBN’s directive infringed upon constitutional rights, particularly section 37 of the 1999 constitution.

Nnamdi Dimgba, presiding judge, struck out the suit filed by Eke, which sought a declaration that the regulation as contained in section 6(a)(iv) of the CBN (customer due diligence) Regulations, 2023, is “undemocratic, unconstitutional, null and void”.

The CBN, in its response to the suit, filed a notice of preliminary objection, challenging the competence of the suit and disagreeing with the claim of interference with the applicant’s private life.

In his judgment, Dimgba held that the notice of preliminary objection had merit, subsequently striking out the suit.

The judge ruled that providing a social media handle is equivalent to providing email and phone numbers for potential customers, and therefore, it does not violate the right to privacy.

“First, the applicant claims that the requirements on the CBN regulations for financial institutions to request and collect the social media handle of its customers as part of KYC infringes on his right to privacy,” the judge said.

“This claim is very ambitious and amounts to a very far throw. The said regulations are directed to and apply to financial institutions.  It does not apply to private individuals such as the applicant.

“Even if, as appears to be argued, that the regulations itself would inevitably affect the applicant, this claim is speculative for the simple reason that in nowhere in the affidavit in support was it stated that the applicant operates an account with a financial institution and that the said institution had demanded his social media handle.”

Consequently, the judge said the suggestion that he would be negatively affected by the regulation is very “speculative and at large”.

He said there is a lack of evidence suggesting financial institutions have implemented the regulation, and it is causing disruptions and inconvenience.

Furthermore, Dimgba said if the applicant is “irritated by the requirement of the regulation”, he has a choice to “refuse to do business with any bank insisting on the information as part of its social media handle, but to seek other alternatives”.

PROVISION OF SOCIAL MEDIA HANDLES TO BANKS DO NOT TRANSLATE TO BREACH’

Dimgba said banks asking customers or potential clients to provide their social media handles is not a breach of privacy.

He said the essence of having a social media account was for one to be publicly visible communication-wise.

According to the judge, a social media handle, being in the public space, can be accessed by everyone whether or not consent was obtained.

As a result, he said it would be unreasonable to hold the respondent in breach of privacy.

“The apprehension of the Applicant of his social interactions being monitored is manifestly speculative in itself and rather incredulous to believe that the financial institutions have the luxury of time to concern itself with such frivolities,” the judge said.

 

 


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CBN Grants Approval to 14 New IMTOs  to Spur Liquidity

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that it has granted 14 new International Money Transfer Operators, IMTOs Approval-in-Principle (AIP) to double foreign-currency remittance inflows through formal channels amid foreign currency crisis.

CBN Grants Approval to 14 New IMTOs  to Spur Liquidity

Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director of Corporate Communications, CBN, disclosed this in a statement that the he initiative will help increase the sustained supply of foreign exchange in the official market by promoting greater competition and innovation amongst IMTOs, lowering the cost of remittance transactions and boosting financial inclusion.

CBN’s thinking is that increasing formal remittance flows, which are one of the major sources of foreign exchange and account for over 6 per cent of gross domestic product, would help ease the historical volatility in Nigeria’s exchange rate caused by external factors, such as fluctuations in foreign investment and oil export proceeds.

This will spur liquidity in Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), augmenting price discovery to enable a market-driven fair value for the naira,” Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN Governor, recently disclosed the apex bank’s target to double remittance flows into Nigeria within a year, which he firmly believed was possible.

On Wednesday, the Naira recorded its first N61 gain against the dollar at the foreign exchange market for the first time after weeks of decline.

 

 


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