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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

By Austin Okere
I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.
Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.
The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.
According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.
With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.
The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.
I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.
Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.
This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.
The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.
The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.
According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.
These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.
The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.
It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).
Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?
For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?
My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.
They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.
The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.
I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.
They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.
It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.
I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.
The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.
Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.
With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.
I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.
It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.
What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.
We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).
In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.
News
Nigeria, Others Lag Behind as Egypt Tops Africa in AI Readiness

Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa countries rank ninth out of nine global regions as Egypt has emerged as Africa’s leading country in artificial intelligence readiness, ranking first on the continent and 51st globally in the 2025 Government AI Readiness Index published by Oxford Insights.

The impressive ranking has been lauded as underscoring North Africa’s growing influence in the global AI race.
According to Egypt’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), the country scored 57.5 points out of 100, climbing 14 places from 65th in 2024.
The Nile nation also ranked fourth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, behind Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
The Oxford Insights index assesses 195 governments using 69 indicators across six pillars, including policy capacity, governance, AI infrastructure, public sector adoption, development and diffusion, and resilience.
Egypt topped the Policy Capacity pillar globally with a perfect score of 100, tying with the UK, Serbia and Australia, an indicator of strong national AI policymaking and institutional readiness.
Oxford Insights noted that countries such as Egypt are “expanding the use of AI across national priorities while shaping policies to strengthen domestic AI ecosystems,” although gaps in infrastructure and talent development remain in some contexts.
MCIT minister Amr Talaat attributed Egypt’s strong performance to deliberate government action.
“This achievement reflects our efforts to integrate artificial intelligence into public services and accelerate digital transformation through Egypt’s second National AI Strategy. We are positioning Egypt as a regional AI hub while ensuring AI delivers real economic and social value,” he said.
Launched for 2025–2030, Egypt’s National AI Strategy targets sectors such as healthcare, justice and public administration, while aiming to train 30 000 AI specialists by 2030 and raise AI’s contribution to GDP to 7.7%.
Talaat also highlighted Egypt’s cybersecurity credentials when he highlighted that the country ranked among the top 12 globally in the ITU’s Global Cyber security Index.
Regionally, the results expose sharp contrasts across Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa ranks ninth out of nine global regions, with an average score of 28.04, reflecting persistent gaps in AI infrastructure and public sector adoption.
However, countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Mauritius and Nigeria lead the sub-region, while Rwanda and Ethiopia are gaining momentum through innovation hubs and policy reforms.
In contrast, the MENA region ranks fifth globally, buoyed by significant investment in AI infrastructure and policy capacity, particularly in Gulf states.
News
SERAP Sues INEC Over Alleged ₦55.9Bn Election Funds Diversion

Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has dragged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to court over the alleged failure to account for ₦55.9 billion reportedly meant for the procurement of election materials for the 2019 general elections.

The grave allegations are documented in the latest annual report published by the Auditor-General on 9 September 2025.
In the suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/38/2026 filed last Friday at the Federal High Court in Abuja, SERAP is seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to account for the missing or diverted N55.9 billion meant to buy smart card readers, ballot papers, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections.”
SERAP is also seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to disclose the names of all contractors paid the N55.9 billion for the procurement of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections, including the names of their directors and shareholders.”
In the suit, SERAP is arguing that: “INEC must operate without corruption if the commission is to ensure free and fair elections in the country and uphold Nigerians’ right to participation.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “INEC cannot ensure impartial administration of future elections if these allegations are not satisfactorily addressed, perpetrators including the contractors involved are not prosecuted and the proceeds of corruption are not fully recovered.”
According to SERAP, “INEC cannot properly carry out its constitutional and statutory responsibilities to conduct free and fair elections in the country if it continues to fail to uphold the basic principles of transparency, accountability and the rule of law.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “These allegations also constitute abuse of public office and show the urgent need by INEC to commit to transparency, accountability, clean governance and the rule of law.”
SERAP also said, “Allegations of corruption in the supply of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets and other election materials directly undermine Nigerians’ right to participate in elections that are free, fair, transparent, and credible.”
The lawsuit filed on behalf of SERAP by its lawyers, Kolawole Oluwadare, Kehinde Oyewumi, and Andrew Nwankwo, read in part: “These grim allegations by the Auditor-General suggest a grave violation of the public trust, the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and international anticorruption standards.”
“According to the recently published 2022 audited report by the Auditor General of the Federation (AGF), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ‘irregularly paid’ over N5.3 billion [N5,312,238,499.39] ‘to a contractor for the supply of Smart Card Readers for the 2019 general elections’.
“The contract was awarded without prior approval from the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) and the Federal Executive Council. The payment was also ‘made without any document. There was no evidence of supplies to the commission.’”
News
FG Inaugurates N40Bn CCTV Control Centre for Third Mainland Bridge

Federal government has inaugurated a ₦40 billion closed-circuit television (CCTV) control centre for the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos.

Speaking at the inauguration on Sunday, David Umahi, minister of Works, said the project followed extensive rehabilitation works carried out on the bridge after the current administration took office in 2023.
“When we came on board in 2023, we met a very terrible Third Mainland Bridge,” Umahi said, adding that the structure, along with Carter and Iddo bridges, required comprehensive re-evaluation and repairs both above and below water level.
He said President Bola Tinubu approved the total rehabilitation of the bridge, including replacement of expansion joints, noting that the completed work had improved driving conditions and extended the bridge’s lifespan.
Umahi said the CCTV system, first announced in 2025, was designed to curb dangerous driving, prevent suicide attempts and strengthen security.
He added that security personnel would monitor live footage from the control centre and enforce speed limits on the bridge.
The minister commended the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), which executed the project, for what he described as high-quality delivery. He said the contract also included a surveillance boat and two Hilux vans, which would be handed over to the police to support monitoring and rapid response.
“The idea is that we can see everything that is happening on the bridge,” Umahi said, expressing concern over excessive speeding and urging motorists to comply with traffic regulations.
Earlier, Olufemi Dare, federal controller of works in Lagos, said the facility was the first of its kind on any bridge in Nigeria.
He said the system allows real-time monitoring of activities on the bridge and surrounding waters.
Dare said the project includes 240 solar panels, 10 inverters, a 300 KVA transformer, a standby generator, multiple monitoring screens and full air-conditioning for the control centre.
He added that the contract also covers 1,268 solar-powered street lights and a borehole facility.
According to Dare, the project was awarded at a cost of ₦40.17 billion, with about ₦36 billion paid so far to the contractor. He said the current inauguration marked the first phase, with additional commissioning planned once work on the bridge’s extension is completed.
He thanked the president for approving the project and praised Umahi for ensuring due process during its execution.
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