Connect with us

News

Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

Published

on

Kindly share this post

By Austin Okere

I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.

Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.

The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.

According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.

With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.

The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.

I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.

Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.

This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.

The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.

The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.

According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.

These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.

The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.

It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).

Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?

For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?

My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.

They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.

The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.

I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.

They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.

It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.

I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.

 The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.

Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.

With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.

I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.

It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.

What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.

We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).

In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


Kindly share this post

Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

News

Dangote Refinery Debunks Speculations on IPO

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) has debunked recent circulation of unauthorised information regarding a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Dangote Refinery Debunks Speculations on IPO

In a statement, DPRP noted that several online platforms and unofficial sources have published unverified, and in some instances inaccurate, information relating to a potential offering.

“Such reports do not originate from DPRP and should be treated with caution. All official updates regarding any potential transaction will be communicated strictly through DPRP’s formal public disclosures and announcements issued by its appointed advisers, in line with applicable laws and regulatory requirements.

“Accordingly, the public, investors, and all market participants are strongly advised to disregard speculative commentary and rely solely on verified information formally issued by DPRP or its authorised representatives,” the statement said.

The firm assured stakeholders that, when appropriate, comprehensive, and accurate details regarding any proposed transaction will be made available through official channels, including regulatory filings, authorised press releases, and coordinated communications by the Enterprise and its appointed advisers.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

News

Descasio Launches “Give to Gain” Leadership Insights Report, Hosts Executive Brunch for Women in Leadership

Published

on

Kindly share this post

In celebration of International Women’s Day, Descasio hosted an intimate executive brunch bringing together distinguished women leaders from its customer community for a thoughtful conversation on leadership, partnership, and shared growth.

Centered around the 2026 International Women’s Day theme, “Give to Gain,” the gathering created space for accomplished women in enterprise leadership to reflect on mentorship, collaboration, and investing in people as key drivers of sustainable growth.

Held in Lagos, the event convened leaders from organizations including Honeywell Group Limited, Finchglow Travels, NGCOM, and Eroton Exploration & Production Company.

Guests were personally welcomed at the start of the gathering by Mr. Dele Nedd, CEO of Descasio; who greeted each of the women leaders and expressed his appreciation for their presence before leaving the session to allow the women lead the conversation among themselves.

The gesture reflected Descasio’s leadership culture; one where women are not only recognized, but actively supported and empowered. It also underscored the company’s belief that meaningful progress in leadership requires partnership and allyship across the organization.

Rather than a traditional panel discussion, the brunch was designed as a candid and reflective exchange among peers navigating leadership in complex industries. Throughout the conversation, participants shared perspectives shaped by experience, responsibility, and the realities of leading teams and organizations.

A recurring theme in the discussion was the role of execution and accountability in leadership. For many organizations, strategy alone is not enough; consistent delivery is what ultimately builds credibility and trust.

Reflecting on this, Josephine Adebola, Data Compliance & Process Automation Manager at Finchglow Travels, emphasized the importance of reliability in leadership and the discipline required to translate vision into results. “Get it done on time and in full.

The conversation also explored the role of curiosity and continuous learning in shaping effective leaders. In rapidly evolving industries, the ability to ask questions, remain open to new perspectives, and keep learning is often what enables leaders to grow alongside their organizations.

Sharing her perspective, Tomi Otudeko, Chief Operating Officer at Honeywell Group Limited, reflected on how curiosity has shaped her leadership journey.

“Asking questions and continuously learning have always stood me in good stead as a leader.”

She also spoke about the importance of leading with empathy and understanding the people behind the roles within organizations.

“Everyone has multiple dimensions to who they are. Leadership has taught me to see people in their totality. That awareness doesn’t make a leader weak; it makes them more effective.”

Another important theme that emerged from the conversation was authenticity in leadership. In an environment where leaders often face pressure to conform to traditional expectations, remaining true to one’s identity while continuing to evolve is essential.

For Helen James-Eziashi, General Manager at NGCOM, authenticity and curiosity remain key guiding principles. “Be yourself, keep learning, and stay curious.”

The discussion also highlighted the role of self-awareness in sustaining leadership journeys, particularly in complex and high-responsibility environments. Understanding one’s values, motivations, and support systems often becomes the anchor that allows leaders to navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Reflecting on this, Ifeanyi Onyejekwe, IT Manager at Eroton, emphasized the importance of knowing what grounds a leader.

“Know who you are and understand what supports and sustains your leadership journey.”

According to Descasio, the event reflects its broader commitment to building strong partnerships and fostering meaningful leadership conversations across its enterprise customer community.

“For us, this was about more than marking International Women’s Day,” said Umama David-Ogebe, The HR Manager at Descasio. “It was about creating a space where leaders could learn from one another and reflect on the kind of leadership that builds strong organizations. The most meaningful partnerships grow from conversations like these.”

To extend the impact of the discussion, Descasio has published “The Give to Gain Leadership Report: Insights from Women Leading Enterprise Organizations,” a curated publication capturing key reflections and leadership lessons shared during the session.

The report highlights themes including:

  • The role of curiosity and continuous learning in leadership
    • Building stronger teams through empathy and accountability
    • The importance of authenticity and self-awareness in navigating leadership journeys
    • How investing in people drives stronger partnerships and resilient organizations

The Give to Gain Leadership Report is now available for download Here.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

News

World Backup Day: Research Reveals 84% of Users Store Sensitive Data Digitally

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Ahead of World Backup Day, Kaspersky reveals the most popular ways to store important data and gives practical advice on how to keep it safe. Global research shows that zoomers and millennials keep nearly everything electronically, while almost one‑in‑three respondents over 55 y. o. still prefer good old‑fashioned paper.

Where do we store what matters?

Research* conducted by Kaspersky’s Market Research center shows that most people prefer to keep important info stored digitally.The majority of all respondents (84%) claim they store sensitive personal data like ID, financial details, healthcare related info or photo archive in electronic format.

When it comes to digital data storage, more than half (56%) say they keep their important records on a computer or a hard drive, 45% use cloud solutions and 20% entrust their data to government digital services.

Does digital mean safer?

Each storage method has its own advantages and limitations. Physical media can be lost or suffer damage, external hard drives are not always convenient to use on the go and cloud services, while being accessible, are vulnerable to unauthorised access. To maximise digital data security, Kaspersky experts advise adhering to the following best‑practice recommendations:

  1. Develop a backup strategy

There is no universal approach to data storage, nor is it necessary to back up every single file. Nonetheless, cultivating a regular backup routine is strongly recommended, particularly for sensitive data or files that cannot be regenerated or recovered through other means.

According to the popular 3-2-1 backup strategy you should have at least three copies of important data, store it on two different storage types, and make at least one copy off-side (cloud or external physical location).

The most sensitive data like passwords, ID or financial details requires special attention. Use a dedicated security solution like Kaspersky password manager, which apart from securely keeping users’ credentials and bank cards, has a special secret vault functionality aimed at storing important documents, for example, scanned Passports/IDs and PDF files, addresses and notes.

  1. Protect your vaults

According to Kaspersky’s data, 98% of all respondents take at least some measures to protect their personal data storages, which is a good sign. However, 36% of respondents use quick-to-remember passwords to safeguard their personal data.

Relying solely on simple passwords leaves your digital vaults vulnerable to brute‑force attacks. That’s why experts recommend enabling two‑factor authentication (2FA) wherever it is available or adopting passkey technology. Passkeys can be stored securely in a password manager and accessed seamlessly from any authorised device.

  1. Set up automatic backups where possible

Continuously remembering to perform backups can be cumbersome. To streamline the process, enable the built‑in backup service on every device you use (e.g., iCloud for iPhone/iPad/Mac, Google Drive/OneDrive for Android/Windows).

Test it once a month or two by restoring a single file, just to be sure the backup works. Kaspersky Premium allows users to make regular backups and restore information on Windows devices. Backup copies of data can be easily saved on removable drives or in cloud storage in an encrypted format.

“We all know backups are important, but most of us never do them because we try to back up everything at once and it gets overwhelming. The smarter approach? Treat backup like any other workflow. Tag your files – critical, important, low‑priority.

Automate real‑time backups for the critical stuff, schedule weekly or monthly backups for the rest. And for sensitive data like passwords and IDs, use our dedicated solution with a secret vault to keep it secure. When you automate and prioritise, you protect what really matters without getting overloaded,” comments Marina Titova, Vice President for Consumer Business in Kaspersky.

The study was conducted by Kaspersky’s market research center in November 2025. 3000 respondents from 15 countries (Argentina, Chile, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, UK, United Arab Emirates) took part in the survey.

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

Trending