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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

By Austin Okere
I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.
Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.
The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.
According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.
With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.
The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.
I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.
Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.
This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.
The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.
The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.
According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.
These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.
The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.
It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).
Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?
For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?
My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.
They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.
The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.
I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.
They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.
It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.
I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.
The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.
Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.
With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.
I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.
It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.
What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.
We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).
In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.
News
The Nigeria Prize for Science & Innovation Records New Height as 2026 Edition Attracts 237 Entries

For the first time since it was established in 2004, the 2026 edition of The Nigeria Prize for Science and Innovation has recorded an historic milestone, attracting a record-breaking 237 entries.

The submissions were formally handed over to the Prize’s Advisory Board at a press conference in Lagos on Thursday, marking the start of the adjudication process.
The handover marks the beginning of the search for Nigeria’s most innovative scientific mind, under the theme “Innovations in ICT, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Digital Technologies for Development.” The theme was a deliberate retention from the 2025 edition, which concluded without a winner after no entry met the required standard for selection.
Speaking at the press conference, Sophia Horsfall, NLNG’s General Manager, External Relations and Sustainable Development, said the continued focus on digital technologies reflects both global trends and Nigeria’s development priorities. She noted that the Prize remains a platform for identifying solutions with real-world relevance.
“In this fourth revolution, digital infrastructure is as foundational to our survival as electricity or water. For Nigeria, our economic sustainability depends on our ability to move beyond promising research and into undeniable innovation that delivers,” she said.
She added that global recognition for Nigerian innovation must be earned through stringent standards. “We believe that if a Nigerian discovery is to command global respect, it must withstand the highest levels of scrutiny. It is this conviction that guided the difficult decision seven months ago”.
While acknowledging the level of interest the theme continues to attract, Horsfall maintained that expectations remain uncompromising, noting that only solutions demonstrating real impact and scalability will be considered. She added that the decision not to award a winner in 2025 reflects this commitment and sets the benchmark for the current adjudication process.
Receiving the entries, Chairman of the Advisory Board, Barth Nnaji, described the handover as a decisive stage in the Prize’s selection process, emphasising that its credibility is anchored on strict standards of excellence. He reaffirmed that the Prize remains focused on identifying innovations that translate scientific insight into tangible socio-economic outcomes.
“Our refusal to award the prize in 2025 was not a dismissal of the hard work of Nigerian innovators; rather, it reinforces that The Nigeria Prize for Science and Innovation holds a gold standard of excellence,” he stated.
He further clarified that the outcome of the 2025 edition, in which no winner was declared, should be viewed within the context of the Prize’s rigorous evaluation framework, which demands novelty, depth, relevance, and demonstrable impact. He emphasized that all entries will continue to be subjected to the same high level of intellectual and technical scrutiny.
Professor Nnaji added that the Prize seeks solutions that directly address Nigeria’s real-world challenges. “Our broader objective is to identify work that brings tangible impact to the challenges Nigeria faces, whether through digital health technologies that serve rural populations or the use of AI in preserving our cultural heritage and languages.”
Other members of the Board are Chief Dr. Nike Akande, a two-time former Minister of Industry, and Professor Baba Yusuf Abubakar, a professor of quantitative genetics and animal breeding.
The Nigeria Prize for Science and Innovation, now in its 22nd year, is valued at $100,000 and remains arguably Africa’s most prestigious science award. The winning entry for the 2026 edition will be unveiled at a world press conference scheduled for September.
News
FG, World Bank Launch $65m SPESSE Funding for 24,000 Nigerians

Federal government, in partnership with the World Bank, has launched a fresh $65 million funding phase of the Sustainable Procurement, Environmental and Social Standards Enhancement (SPESSE) project aimed at benefiting more than 24,000 Nigerians through professional training and institutional capacity development.

The initiative, coordinated by the National Universities Commission (NUC), is designed to strengthen procurement systems, environmental management and social standards across public and private institutions, while promoting transparency, accountability and sustainable development practices nationwide.
Abdullahi Ribadu, executive secretary of the Commission, disclosed this in Abuja during the signing of performance contracts for the additional SPESSE financing. He explained that the intervention builds on the gains of the initial $80 million SPESSE project, which became effective in 2021.
According to Ribadu, the programme has significantly improved institutional frameworks and developed professional expertise in key governance sectors. He noted that the initiative was introduced to address the shortage of qualified professionals in procurement, environmental management and social standards within both public and private institutions.
He said: “With the support of the World Bank and under the coordination of the NUC, six centres of excellence were established across the six geopolitical zones to provide sustainable capacity building in these critical sectors”.
Ribadu stated that the participating universities were selected through a transparent and competitive process based on institutional readiness, quality assurance and sustainability.
He added that the institutions have continued to produce skilled manpower capable of advancing transparency, environmental responsibility and inclusive national development.
He described the contract signing ceremony as a renewed commitment to accountability, sustainability and institutional excellence, noting that the centres have recorded major achievements, including the introduction of specialised academic programmes ranging from short courses to undergraduate and postgraduate degrees.
The NUC boss further disclosed that three of the six centres have already commenced PhD programmes, while the remaining centres are expected to begin by July 2026.
He added that under the new funding phase, the Commission targets at least 60 PhD graduates, enrolment of 60 foreign students, staff internships and expanded student exchange programmes with international institutions.
Also speaking, Adebowale Adedokun, director-general, Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), said the project has so far trained more than 2,700 officers from both the public and private sectors to improve procurement competence nationwide.
He said the next phase would support the rollout of Nigeria’s electronic procurement system and expand online capacity-building programmes for policymakers and small and medium-scale enterprises involved in managing public funds.
On his part, Ishtiak Siddique, World Bank Task Team Leader for SPESSE, revealed that more than 40,000 participants had benefited from training under the original project, with over 4,000 certified in procurement, environmental and social standards.
Siddique said the additional funding would focus on strengthening the capacity of federal, state and local government agencies to improve development outcomes and service delivery, stressing that sustainability remained central to ensuring continuity beyond donor support.
For her part, Prof. Folasade Ogunsola, Vice-Chancellor, University of Lagos, reaffirmed the institution’s commitment to advancing professional capacity development under the SPESSE framework through postgraduate training, institutional ownership and international collaborations.
News
Kaspersky Challenges IT Leaders with Next-generation Cyber Protection Simulations

Kaspersky has expanded its Kaspersky Interactive Protection Simulation (KIPS) with new advanced cyberattack scenarios tailored specifically for IT organisations.

The update introduces realistic simulations of deepfake-enabled fraud, supply chain compromise, trusted relationship attacks and destructive wiper malware, helping businesses test their preparedness against today’s complex threat landscape.
IT companies remain one of the most attractive targets for cybercriminals. As attackers increasingly combine social engineering, supply chain manipulation and ransomware tactics, organisations require hands-on, strategic training that reflects real-world attack dynamics.
Kaspersky Interactive Protection Simulation is designed to bridge the communication gap between CISOs, IT teams and top management. By immersing participants in realistic cyber crisis scenarios, KIPS demonstrates the operational and business impact of attacks in an accessible, engaging format.
Real-world attacks in a realistic simulation environment
The updated IT-focused scenario in KIPS exposes participants to modern attack techniques observed by Kaspersky experts in active malicious campaigns targeting the IT sector.
Participants may face:
Binary Backdoor in the Build – a supply chain attack that compromises software during signing, packaging or distribution stages. Once deployed, the tampered product enables data theft, persistent remote access and the compromise of trusted customers downstream.
DeepFake Boss – a social engineering campaign leveraging AI-generated video and voice impersonations of corporate executives to manipulate finance teams into initiating unauthorised payments.
Trusted Relationship Attack (VPN) – exploitation of third-party access and remote connectivity tools to infiltrate corporate environments through contractors or service providers.
Wiper Attack (Babuk) – a destructive malware scenario based on leaked Babuk ransomware code. This scenario tests resilience against irreversible data corruption combined with ransomware deployment. In the simulation, if players fail to contain the attack in time, data becomes encrypted, forcing a complete rebuild from scratch.
IT companies can now choose between two dedicated attack scenarios, testing coordination, crisis management and decision-making under pressure. KIPS is available in both live (up to 100 participants) and online (up to 1,000 trainees) formats and provides detailed analytics on participants’ decisions, team coordination and benchmarking against previous sessions.
“To stay secure, organisations need a layered defence strategy that combines technology, processes and people. But investing in tools alone is not enough. Cyber resilience depends on awareness, coordination and the ability to respond effectively under pressure,” comments Svetlana Kalashnikova, Security Awareness expert at Kaspersky.
“Kaspersky Interactive Protection Simulation, a part of a comprehensive Security Awareness offering, helps organisations experience real-world attack scenarios in a controlled environment, strengthening decision-making, cross-team collaboration and executive understanding of cybersecurity risks. By transforming complex threats into practical learning experiences, we empower companies to build stronger, more resilient security cultures.”
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