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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

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By Austin Okere

I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.

Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.

The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.

According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.

With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.

The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.

I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.

Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.

This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.

The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.

The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.

According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.

These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.

The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.

It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).

Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?

For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?

My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.

They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.

The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.

I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.

They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.

It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.

I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.

 The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.

Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.

With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.

I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.

It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.

What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.

We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).

In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


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ARCON to Tackle Digital, Recommits to Ethical Standards

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Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON) has declared its full readiness to confront emerging challenges in the country’s dynamic advertising landscape—particularly those arising from digital media proliferation and unregulated content distribution.

ARCON to Tackle Digital, Recommits to Ethical Standards

Speaking at the 2025 Advertising Standards Panel (ASP) Stakeholders Forum held recently in Lagos, Dr. Olalekan Fadolapo, director general,  ARCON, reaffirmed the council’s commitment to upholding ethical advertising standards and protecting public interest, especially in an era where virtually everyone has become a content creator.

“The digital economy has become massive, and the boundaries are no longer defined by geography. Ensuring compliance in this space is one of our greatest regulatory hurdles,” he said.

Responding to criticisms that ARCON and the ASP may be stifling creativity, Fadolapo insisted that regulation does not equate to censorship but rather ensures alignment with national values and cultural sensitivities.

“Creativity is vast and fluid, but it must be exercised within the limits of the law and ethical standards. We won’t allow so-called creativity to ignite social unrest or breach advertising codes,” he noted, citing examples where ads had violated laws under the guise of creative license.

Earlier in his presentation, Dr. Emmanuel Agu, chairman of the Advertising Standards Panel (ASP), Nigeria’s statutory body for advertisement vetting and regulatory compliance,  reaffirmed the panel’s commitment to upholding ethical advertising standards and protecting public interest, especially in an era where virtually everyone has become a content creator.

“The Panel is aware of the challenges that confront it and is taking deliberate steps to address them,” Dr. Agu said. “We are not oblivious to the current advertising realities, including the increasing volume of digital content and the corresponding need for rapid vetting processes.”

Dr. Agu acknowledged that the digital boom and content decentralization have complicated ASP’s regulatory mandate, with social media platforms now flooded with promotional materials that often evade proper scrutiny.

He warned that misleading product claims, unverified influencer content, and the inappropriate use of minors in advertising are among the most pressing concerns currently facing the panel.

“We’ve observed an increase in digital content disguised as entertainment that essentially functions as unvetted advertising. This undermines consumer trust and can negatively affect public morality,” he stated.

Dr. Agu was unequivocal in stressing that all promotional content, regardless of format or platform, must be vetted by ASP before public exposure.

 

 


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NGX Group Chairman Seeks Regional Collaboration to Unlock West Africa’s Trade, Investment Potential

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Umaru Kwairanga, chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), has called for stronger regional cooperation to harness the untapped potential of West Africa’s trade and commodity markets.

Speaking at the inaugural West Africa Economic Summit (WAES) 2025 held under the theme “Unlocking Trade and Investment Opportunities in the Region”, Kwairanga highlighted the critical role of capital markets and commodity exchanges in transforming the region’s abundant natural resources into organised, transparent capital that fuels industrialisation and inclusive economic growth.

The summit brought together key stakeholders from across West Africa to deliberate on strategies for accelerating regional integration, strengthening capital markets, and unlocking the full potential of intra-African trade.

In his remarks during a high-level panel on “Commodities as Capital: Regional Commodities Exchange & Reserves”, Kwairanga noted that despite West Africa’s wealth of raw materials, the region continues to face a paradox of resource abundance coexisting with capital scarcity.

“As a nation and region, we are abundantly rich in raw materials, but often poor in capital outcomes. This paradox is not due to a lack of resources, but due to the way these resources have historically been excluded from structured financial ecosystems.

Commodities, whether agricultural, mineral, or energy, must be seen not just as tradeable goods, but as investable assets capable of powering industrialisation, job creation, and macroeconomic stability,” he said.

Kwairanga emphasised NGX Group’s commitment to building resilient market infrastructure that supports price discovery, clearing, settlement, and investor protection, systems that can underpin thriving regional commodity markets.

He highlighted NGX Group’s role in mobilising capital for commodity value chains through IPOs, bonds, and structured funds, citing the success of NGX-listed companies like Presco and Okomu Oil as models for attracting long-term investment.

On the question of regional versus national commodity exchanges, Dr. Kwairanga advocated for a dual approach that combines the strengths of national platforms with the scale and integration benefits of regional frameworks.

“National exchanges address local needs and build depth, but for West Africa to unlock the full potential of commodity trade, we must connect these markets under a regional structure.

“Regulatory harmonisation will be key, and this is where NGX Group’s experience in governance, coupled with platforms like the African Exchanges Linkage Project and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, can help align standards and enable seamless cross-border transactions,” he stated.

Addressing liquidity challenges, Kwairanga outlined the need for harmonised rules, trustworthy infrastructure, product innovation, and incentives to drive participation. He called for public-private partnerships and regional integration to deepen market liquidity and ensure efficient price discovery.

Beyond the panel discussions, Kwairanga commended the vision of President Bola Tinubu and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, for spearheading the summit. “There is power in unity and prestige in size. The great economic powerhouses of the 21st century, such as the United States and China, have risen to prominence partly because of the scale of their markets.

A united West Africa can achieve the same if we work together on initiatives like this,” he said, expressing optimism that the summit would produce actionable frameworks to reduce trade barriers, encourage regional investment, and fast-track economic growth across ECOWAS.

NGX Group, he added, remains committed to supporting cross-border investments, citing its participation in the African Exchanges Linkage Project and the increasing regional footprint of NGX-listed companies such as Dangote Cement, First Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, and Ecobank.

 


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DBN Awards N13m in Grants to Tech Startups

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Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) has awarded a total of N13 million in grants to three standout tech startups at the 2025 Techpreneur Summit held in Lagos, reinforcing its commitment to innovation and inclusive growth among Nigeria’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

DBN Awards N13m in Grants to Tech Startups

The winners include: BuyScrap, a digital marketplace for recyclable materials – N6 million; Qiqi Farms, which connects local farmers to hospitality and export markets – N4 million; Eco-Cyclers, a youth-led recycling initiative based in Enugu – N3 million

Alongside the grant awards, DBN also launched a new digital data asset, a first-of-its-kind platform aimed at enabling data-driven decisions within the MSME ecosystem.

The platform offers deep insights into business trends, sector-specific challenges, and growth opportunities—supporting smarter policymaking and targeted investments.

In his keynote address in Lagos, Tony Okpanachi, managing director/ CEO, DBN,   described the event’s theme, “CTRL + SHIFT: Tech Empowered Movement for Naija,” as a strategic call to reimagine enterprise development in Nigeria.

“This isn’t just a keyboard shortcut,” he said. “It’s a mindset reset—powered by technology—to build a more inclusive, innovative, and resilient business landscape. From financing to innovation, DBN remains committed to enabling MSMEs to thrive.”

Okpanachi emphasized that the Summit aligns with DBN’s AMPLIFI Strategy, which integrates digital transformation, sustainability, and scalability into its core programs.

He highlighted initiatives such as the Digital Shift Workshops and the Eco-Innovation Challenge as key steps toward embedding innovation in Nigeria’s MSME sector.

Encouraging young innovators, he added: “The future belongs to those bold enough to imagine and build it. DBN is proud to support the ideas that will shape tomorrow.”

A major highlight was the unveiling of the DBN Data Asset—a digital platform designed to provide real-time, evidence-based insights into Nigeria’s MSME landscape.

The platform combines DBN’s proprietary data with external sources like the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to offer a comprehensive view of MSME performance by region and sector.

Jeremy Dan Okayi, DBN’s Head of Strategy, Policy & Innovation, described the platform as: “A reservoir of insight, potential, and direction—built on two years of collaboration and shared vision. This tool will support informed decision-making across the public and private sectors.”


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