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Austin’s Five Forces Model for Analysing Sustainable Development

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By Austin Okere

The sustainability challenge is becoming clearer. Being a Consultant at the Sustainable Development Goals, Africa Centre (SDGCA) in Rwanda and on the Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has exposed me to the global framework for economic growth that protects the fundamental pillars of humanity and the planet.

The SDGs are about People, Planet, Prosperity and Peace – and about driving development in an inclusive way that leaves no one behind. These tenets were further reinforced through my interview with Professor Paul Romer, Nobel Laureate, and former Chief Economist at the World Bank.

I see Five Forces driving sustainable growth as follows – Organizations, Population, Enablers, Infrastructure, and the Socio-Political Environment. I have codified below, the relation between these forces in the in a model which I call the Austin’s Five Forces Model for analyzing Sustainable Development.

Below are the Five Forces and how they impact sustainability:

  • Organisations – providing jobs for the population for shared prosperity
  • Population – a large social group subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations. This is the source of skilled labour to the organisation and who in turn contribute to the welfare of society
  • Enablers – institutions and mechanisms necessary for supporting efficient and equitable pursuance of opportunities in the society. They may include regulation, education, healthcare, and technology among others
  • Infrastructure – the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. They include housing, ports, roads, power, and communication
  • Social-Pollical Environment – the central values of society, politics, culture and public opinion, as well as the assurance of security and the adherence to rule of law that governs the society

ORGANISATIONS

At the heart of providing jobs is the organisation, public, private, start-ups and non-governmental.

A commonly held truism is that government alone cannot provide all jobs and is not big enough to shoulder the entire economy. Take Nigeria for example, in real terms, government spending at 5.7% of GDP (2019) means non-government economic activity accounts for almost all of GDP (about 95%). Among OECD economies, business activity accounts for 72 percent of GDP with monetary flows from labour income, capital income, taxes, investment in capital assets, and payments to suppliers. It is this crucial force that needs to be enabled to unleash economic growth.

In many economies, 80% of the jobs are provided by entrepreneurs. They are responsible for most of the advances in new products and processes, provide most of the employment opportunities and are a key indicator of the overall performance of an economy.

In Nigeria, while there are only about 161 companies listed on the Stock Exchange, the total number of MSMEs as of 2019 stood at 41.5m according to the National Bureau of statistics. Just imagine the scale of jobs that will be created if each of these businesses is empowered to employ just only one additional person.

POPULATION

A developing society is based on the ideal by which equality of opportunity is available to any member, allowing the highest aspirations and goals to be achieved. While society in the past was split between the haves and have nots, society today is split more into those who are included and those left behind.

This inequality is more significant in emerging markets, where 80% of the world reside. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is 32.6%, while the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) in 2020 was 58.3%.

Young people who cannot find jobs still need to eat. With few legitimate options, illegal means become attractive.

Research has shown that youth unemployment increases all sorts of crime. It is estimated that by 2050, Africa’s population will double, reaching 2.5b people – just about the current combined population of India and China. Without a credible plan towards sustainable employment, this could be a ticking bomb.

What is more worrisome is that while the population grew at a rate of 2.6%, the GDP growth rate was lower at 2.2% in 2019 according to the World Bank.

ENABLERS

Enablers are institutions and mechanisms which remove economic blockages and open economic arteries. Anything that enhances economic activity to a community will culminate in an economic driver for the society. Regulators are one of the most critical enablers of a society.

Regulators, however, tend to be either a source of support or a headwind against progress. The regulator should not constrict the pursuit of opportunity nor act in a manner to entrench protectionism.

While Nigeria has become one of the world’s fastest-growing technology markets, attracting investments of over $216m in the first quarter of 2021 alone, there is a palpable apprehension among technology start-ups, after a series of regulatory headwinds from different government bodies.

These include the Central bank of Nigeria’s ban on cryptocurrency trading and the Security and Exchanges Commission’s clampdown on technology platforms for purchasing shares in foreign companies outside the Commission’s regulatory purview and registration.

Until more people think they can successfully start businesses and prosper, we will not have enough jobs in the economy. Other significant enablers are health and education. On the supply side for jobs, the education system needs to be set up so that people leaving, either at the secondary or university level have employable skills.

The most significant enabler in modern times is the Technology Platform. These Platforms provide a means of significantly extending services at low-cost efficiencies, and as a result draw many people into the consumption pool, while also creating many jobs along the value chain which would otherwise simply not exist. Technology Platforms have heralded an era of unprecedented inclusiveness.

For instance, MPESA the popular payment system had more than 60% of Kenya’s 33 million mobile users and in 2015 transacted $28m on her platform. Similar applications have metamorphosed across Africa, and Mobile Money services are today generating 6.7% of Africa’s GDP.

Platforms have made it possible to reach far more than our traditional schools can cater to, by leveraging Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Research and Markets forecast that e-learning will grow to $325 Billion by 2025 from $107b in 2015.

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely tested many sovereign health systems, and many have been found significantly wanting.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure speaks to facilities needed for the operation of a society, and includes power, ports, transportation, communication, housing, and not least, broadband to homes and offices. This has now become imperative due to the increase in digital transformation, largely driven by the Covid-19 pandemic. A lack of these will severely constrict the smooth production and delivery of goods and services.

By 2050, the infrastructure needed for the 2.5b Africans will be unprecedented in the history of humankind; 700m housing units, 300k schools, and 100k health centres. Can you imagine Africa without a significant network of rail or a functional underground transport system in 2050?

The UK’s Underground Tube system moves 1.35b people annually and has been operating for about 150 years. African Countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya are making strident advances in rail transportation.

The biggest infrastructure drawback, however, has been electricity. Almost half of the people living in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to electricity. The attendant impact on entrepreneurship can only be imagined. If Africa were able to achieve in power what she has achieved in telecoms the impact on sustainable development would be immense.

SOCIO-POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Nothing impacts sustainable growth as much as a stable socio-political environment. it enables the attraction of capital for rapid economic development. The rule of law is paramount for a stable polity. Any society that does not abide by some code of conduct whether in public or private matters tends to become chaotic, and virtually ungovernable.

The blind application of the law without regard to status, tribe or creed is what enshrines deterrence. It is the pursuit of deterrence that drives developed countries from sparing any high-ranking members of the society who fall foul of the law, not least their leaders, who are held to a higher account.

When we analyse the conduct of the people from rich and developed countries, we observed that a majority abide by the following principles of life: ethics, integrity, responsibility, the respect of most citizens for the rule of law, pride in their work, the effort to save and invest, and the will to be productive and punctual.

In poorer countries, a small minority follow these basic principles in their daily lives.

A society is not poor because they lack natural resources or because nature is cruel to them, but rather because they lack the right attitude. Conscience is usually thrown out, and justice is on sale to the highest bidder; this is what is known as a market society.

Russian American writer and philosopher, Ayn Rand succinctly sums it up as follows:

“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favours – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.”

According to Yury Fedotov, Executive Director, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,

“Corruption represents a major threat to the rule of law and sustainable development the world over. It has a disproportionate, destructive impact on the poor and most vulnerable, but it is also quite simply bad for business.”

The sustainable development of any society depends on where they lie on the spectrum of these critical five forces.

Where does your society lie?

Credits to Professor Michael Porter for the term “Five Forces Model”

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest security in the technology sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, and Entrepreneur-in-Residence at CBS, New York.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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LCCI Urges FG to Simplify Trade Procedures to Boost Economy

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the government needs to simplify and harmonize trade procedures and address bottlenecks in order to boost economic growth in the country.

President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, gave the charge at a Quarterly media briefing on the State of the Economy yesterday in Lagos.

He said that the government has to create an atmosphere that promotes export growth and competitiveness, which is projected to boost export earnings, raise domestic revenue, improve citizens’ welfare, and increase business productivity.

“We recommend that reforms must include simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures as well as addressing bottlenecks such as port logistics, congestion, and transportation costs. This is expected to position the country as the commercial centre of the region and a springboard into regional value chains,” he stated.

On managing the persistent high inflation, the LCCI president said both monetary and fiscal authorities should focus on the factors driving the inflation rates by tackling the supply-side deficiencies instead of focusing too much attention on the demand-side management.

“We urge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue with its foreign exchange (forex) market reforms with intense discipline, as the high exchange rate against the naira is a major driver of the skyrocketing inflation rates.”

Idahosa acknowledged the improvement in the naira exchange rate in the last few days, moving towards the level of N1000 per dollar or lower.

“CBN needs to sustain its policy and regulatory reforms in the FX market, adopt policies that would attract more FX inflow into the economy as well as build market confidence in the performance of the FX market,” he added.

 


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Dufil Takes Donation of Indomie Noodles Cartons to Vulnerable Communities in Abuja and Environ

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In line with its commitment to provide critical support to indigent members of communities around the country in the face of the ongoing economic challenges, Dufil Prima Foods Limited, makers of Indomie Instant Noodles, in partnership with Golan Helps Abuja Food Bank Initiative (GHAFBI) and Meluibe Foundation on Wednesday, April 17 distributed Indomie noodles cartons to vulnerable communities in Kuje and Kubwa Local Government Areas in Abuja.

With the goal of alleviating hunger and supporting communities across Nigeria, Indomie Instant Noodles has committed to donating a substantial quantity of noodle packs to various NGOs working tirelessly to address food insecurity.

These organizations play a crucial role in reaching remote and underserved areas, ensuring that nutritious meals reach those who need them most.

“We are deeply committed to making a positive impact in the communities where we operate,” said Olusola Olayinka Idowu OON, former Permanent Secretary, Budget and National Planning, and the CEO/Founder of GHAFBI.

“At GHAFBI, we believe that everyone deserves access to wholesome and nourishing food. Our partnership with Dufil Prima Foods to donate Indomie Noodles packs is a big step towards addressing food insecurity and supporting vulnerable communities in Abuja”, said Idowu who was also the former National Conveyor, UN Food System Dialogues in Nigeria.

Speaking in the same vein, Obialunanma Nnaobi-Ayodele, Executive Director, The Meluibe Empowerment Foundation, expressed her gratitude to Indomie Noodles for the partnership. “Our vision as an NGO is to change the world one step at a time, by providing relief and support to vulnerable communities.

This is achieved through collaborations and partnerships, one of which is what we have done with Indomie Noodles. We remain grateful for their support through this food relief initiative”, she said.

By partnering with NGOs, Indomie Instant Noodles works closely with local leaders and community heads in directly engaging with rural communities to distribute noodle packs and provide immediate relief to families facing hunger and ensuring that food assistance reaches those who are most in need, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

“We are grateful for the opportunity to collaborate with NGOs and community leaders to make a meaningful difference in the lives of people facing food insecurity”, said Temitope Ashiwaju, Group Corporate Communications and Events Manager, Dufil Prima Foods Limited. “Together, we bring hope, love and relief for all”.

The community leaders and some of the beneficiaries also expressed their immense gratitude to Indomie for the support, stressing the impact the products donated will have in alleviating hunger in their communities.

Speaking at the outreach centre, His Royal Highness, Muhammed D. Jibril, Community Leader of Gbazango Community in Kubwa Local Government Area said: “I am very grateful to Indomie Noodles for coming to our aid in these challenging times. I pray for more expansion and growth for the business and may God bless Indomie Noodles”.

Other communities who benefited from the product donations include Wunmi, Tondo, Godoji and Shazhi communities in Kuje Area Council of Abuja.

Dufil Prima Food’s donation of Indomie Noodle packs underscores its commitment to corporate social responsibility and its dedication to supporting communities in need. By providing essential food relief, Dufil Prima Foods is contributing to the well-being and resilience of vulnerable populations in Nigeria.

Indomie Instant Noodles remains dedicated to bringing joy to mealtimes and making a positive impact in communities around the world.


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