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FG May Hike Pump Price, Devalue Naira, Others This Year

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FSDH Research, trusted providers of market intelligence has said that certain key events, both at the global level and in Nigeria, will influence economic and business activities in 2019.

 

FSDH Research examines a few of these events and discusses the implications for businesses and investments in Nigeria.

 

The expected hike in interest rates in major advanced countries will lead to an increase in global yields and may put pressure on currency in Nigeria.

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There are strong indications that the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank will increase interest rates in 2019. The expected increase in the interest rate in the international market may also lead to an increase in the interest rate in Nigeria because of monetary policy adjustments to reduce capital flight.

 

Nigeria may lose a substantial amount of its projected crude oil revenue due to a limit on crude oil production and the drop in the global crude oil price. This may also lead to a drop in the supply of foreign exchange into Nigeria, resulting in a possible depreciation or devaluation of the Naira.

 

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Nigerian businesses should look for local alternatives, where possible, for the raw materials needed for their production process.

 

They should also limit or eliminate foreign debt, particularly if they do not have foreign exchange receivables to mitigate the possible foreign exchange risk.

 

FSDH Research also advises that businesses should put in place appropriate foreign exchange hedging strategies. The Q3 2018 Balance of Payment (BoP) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published shows that earnings from crude oil and gas accounted for 94.4 percent of total export earnings during the period.

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The external trade report that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published for Q3 2018 shows that crude oil exports accounted for 85 percent of total exports. Therefore, any adverse movement in crude oil price or production has high negative implications on the Nigerian economy.

 

Although FSDH Research expects the general election in 2019 to be peaceful, its outcome will determine economic activity and business in Nigeria.

 

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A peaceful election will ensure stability of the Nigerian economy and pave the way for the flow of investments, both Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) into Nigeria. Certain longterm business and investment decisions may be taken immediately after the election if the current government retains power.

 

However, if there is a change in power, investors may wait until after the presidential inauguration on May 29 before they take long-term investment decisions, to give them enough time to access details of the policies of the incoming government.

 

There are certain macroeconomic realities that the Nigerian government must contend with in 2019.

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FSDH Research believes the fiscal deficit in 2019 may be higher than in 2018, and higher than what is projected for the year 2019. In order to execute certain plans that will move the economy forward, government may have to increase borrowing or partner with private sector operators on key projects.

 

An increase in borrowing will increase the interest rate, while partnership with the private sector will expand economic activity and create new job opportunities.

 

Already, the ratio of government’s debt service to revenue is high and at an unsustainable level. Therefore, additional debt, in an environment of rising interest rates, may reduce government’s ability to execute critical programmes that will improve the business environment.

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While fixed income investors may enjoy higher yields in 2019 than in 2018, businesses may suffer under rising interest costs.

 

FSDH Research analysis shows that electricity and the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are two key prices that government will need to adjust in 2019 to free up funds for developmental purposes.

 

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The adjustment may increase the inflation rate in the short-term, but it will benefit the economy in the long-term. More investments are required in the power sector than are currently available.

 

However, the sector may not attract investment in the absence of a cost-reflective tariff. Government already allows an off-grid power supply arrangement based on ‘willing buyer, willing seller’. The tariff at which this arrangement is settled is higher than the tariff for the power from on-grid supply. Appropriate policy responses from government and strategies from the business community may ameliorate the likely negative impacts of these key events in 2019.

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E-Financial

Next Currency Crisis May Turn $300Bn in Stablecoins into National Currencies

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The next currency crisis could accelerate the shift of the roughly $315 billion global stablecoin market into a digital-dollar alternative for citizens in emerging economies, notably in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Next Currency Crisis May Turn $300Bn in Stablecoins into National Currencies

As local fiat currencies face devaluation and high inflation, citizens and businesses are increasingly utilizing smartphone-based stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) as hedges and primary mediums of exchange.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rapid adoption of dollar-linked digital assets—particularly in countries heavily affected by inflation like Nigeria—poses significant risks to monetary sovereignty.

With up to 95% of surveyed individuals in some African markets preferring to receive payments in stablecoins over local fiat, the rising volume of these decentralized, cross-border channels weakens domestic currency demand and dilutes the effectiveness of local monetary policy.

IMF observed in a report titled “Stablecoins in Nigeria: A Growing Cross-Border Channel”  noted that the widespread use of stablecoins poses risks to monetary sovereignty, particularly as more individuals and businesses turn to digital dollar-linked assets for savings and transactions.

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Nodding in agreement is Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute), a non-profit organisation run by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s main sovereign wealth fund.

FII Institute said that central banks face structural challenges.

And according to the institute, when citizens move savings out of national banks and into private digital wallets, conventional capital controls lose their grip.

Institutions like the Bank for International Settlements warn that interest-bearing stablecoins compete directly with domestic-currency deposits, complicating financial oversight and making smartphone-based transfers incredibly difficult for authorities to monitor.

In Nigeria, Naira depreciation has pushed users toward dollar-stablecoins, according to report by Gino Matos in cryptoslate.com.

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A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by pegging its price to a reserve asset, such as a fiat currency (e.g., the U.S. dollar) or a commodity (e.g., gold).

They act as a bridge between traditional money and the digital asset world, providing the speed of crypto without the extreme price swings of assets like Bitcoin.

 

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FG to Raise N1.2 Trillion via Fresh Bond Offer – DMO

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Federal government has reopened three federal government of Nigeria (FGN) bond issues valued at N1.2 trillion for subscription as part of efforts to raise long-term funds from the domestic debt market.

FG to Raise N1.2 Trillion via Fresh Bond Offer - DMO

The Debt Management Office (DMO), which announced the offer on Tuesday, said the three reopened bond issues are each valued at N400 billion.

According to the DMO, the first offer is the January 2035 FGN Bond, a 10-year reopening, carrying an interest rate of 22.60 per cent per annum.

The second is the May 2028 FGN Bond, a 15-year reopening, with a coupon rate of 15.45 per cent per annum, while the third is the June 2037 FGN Bond, a 20-year reopening, also valued at N400 billion.

The office said the bond auction is scheduled for July 20, while successful subscriptions will be settled on July 22.

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It explained that the bonds are offered at N1,000 per unit, with a minimum subscription of N50 million and additional investments in multiples of N1,000.

For the reopened bonds, the DMO said successful bidders would pay a price based on the yield-to-maturity that clears the auction, in addition to any accrued interest on the instruments.

Interest on the bonds will be paid every six months, while the principal will be repaid in full on the respective maturity dates.

The DMO reaffirmed that FGN bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government and constitute obligations chargeable on the general assets of the federation.

It added that the bonds qualify as trustee investment securities under the Trustee Investment Act and enjoy tax exemptions for eligible investors, including pension funds, under the Company Income Tax Act and Personal Income Tax Act.

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The bonds are listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange and also qualify as liquid assets for banks in computing their liquidity ratios.

FGN bonds are long-term debt instruments through which investors lend money to the Federal Government in exchange for periodic interest payments and repayment of the principal at maturity.

 

 

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E-Financial

Gigbanc Nigerian Fintech Startup Closes Shop after 3 Years

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Gigbanc, Nigerian fintech startup, has announced it is winding down operations, after three years, citing a tough fundraising climate.

Gigbanc Nigerian Fintech Startup Closes Shop after 3 Years

Paul Omoregie Okundaye, and Babatope Oni, co-founders of Gigbanc

The company, which set out to build cross-border financial infrastructure for African freelancers, creators, entrepreneurs and businesses, confirmed the decision in a statement signed by its co-founders.

“After careful consideration, Gigbanc’s leadership has made the difficult decision to wind down operations,” the company said, adding that the move “reflects the broader funding environment affecting early stage startups in Africa, a challenge that has been widely documented across the ecosystem.”

Since its founding, Gigbanc grew a community of more than 150,000 people across multiple countries and processed over $7.28 million (N10 billion) in payment volume, helping thousands of users receive their first international payment.

The company also ran conferences, fellowships and community events aimed at connecting entrepreneurs and creators across the continent.

`Despite the shutdown, Gigbanc said it is not walking away emptyhanded.

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The company disclosed that it is in active acquisition discussions with a prominent financial infrastructure firm, with further details to be shared once the process closes.

Paul Omoregie Okundaye, co-founder and CEO,  and Babatope Oni, co-founder and CTO, framed the closure as the end of a chapter rather than the erasure of Gigbanc’s impact.

“While Gigbanc is winding down operations, we don’t see this as the end of what we built together. Instead, we see it as the completion of an important chapter,” the founders said. “The relationships, lessons, community, and impact we’ve created will continue to outlive the company itself.”

The founders thanked users for their trust throughout the company’s run, citing everything from transactions and feature requests to bug reports and criticism as forces that shaped the product

“We leave this journey incredibly proud. Proud of our team, who gave everything they had.

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Proud of the community that rallied behind us,” they said.

Gigbanc’s exit adds to a growing list of African startups that have shut down or scaled back operations in recent years as venture funding on the continent has tightened, with founders increasingly citing capital scarcity as the primary driver behind closures and consolidations.

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