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Naira buoyed by trade optimism and rebounding oil prices

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

The Naira entered Tuesday’s trading session in a steady fashion amid optimism over US-China trade talks and rebounding oil prices.

Although a majority of emerging market currencies were impacted by a stabilizing Dollar, the Naira stood out from the pack by holding gains of around 358N on the parallel exchange. With the Dollar seen weakening in the medium term on expectations over the Fed taking a pause on rate hikes and Oil rising from trade hopes, the Naira remains buoyed. As the first trading month of 2019 gets underway, investors will be keeping a close eye on the inflation figures scheduled for release this Monday, January 14. Although signs of easing inflationary pressures will be a welcome development for the Nigerian economy, consumer prices are expected to rise on increased government spending. With the Central Bank of Nigeria expected to maintain status quo on interest rates this month, all eyes will be on the presidential elections in February.

 

Dollar vulnerable to Fed rate pause bets

Dovish comments from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday effortlessly sent the Dollar tumbling against a basket of major currencies.

Although the Dollar was initially boosted by December’s blockbuster jobs report, this was dampened by Powell’s softer language towards tightening monetary policy. With Powell stating that the Fed “will be patient” and flexible towards raising rates, expectations jumped over the central bank taking a pause on monetary tightening this year. With the Greenback extremely sensitive to Fed hike speculation, this development is seen weakening the currency further. The improving risk sentiment amid US-China trade hopes will be another factor sending the Greenback lower in the short- to medium-term. In regards to the technical, the Dollar Index is under pressure on the daily charts. Sustained weakness below 96.00 is poised to open a path back towards 95.70 and 95.50, respectively.

 

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices fell on Tuesday despite trade optimism helping risk sentiment. The primary factor behind the yellow metal’s decline is based on a stabilizing Dollar.

However, with the Dollar heavily pressured by expectations over the Fed taking a pause on rate hikes and domestic growth fears, zero-yielding Gold has the potential to shine. With US President Donald Trump scheduled to publicly address the nation on his border plans this evening, the speech will most likely impact Gold. Technical traders will continue to closely observe how prices behave above the $1,280 region. If the upside momentum holds, the next key point of interest will be at the $1,300 psychological level. Alternatively, sustained weakness below this level is likely to open a path back down towards $1,272.


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E-Financial

Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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E-Financial

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

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Sterling Bank, in partnership with nonprofit Water.org and Sterling One Foundation, has launched the Sterling WASH Business Loan to empower WASH businesses and scale sustainable access to safe water and sanitation for millions of Nigerians.

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

L-R: Gilbert Okpono, Snr. Partnership Account Manager, Water.org; Engr. Mukhtaar Temitope Tijani, Managing Director, Lagos State Water Corporation; Mrs. Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO, Sterling One Foundation; Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank, at the Sterling Bank Water Credit Proposition held in Lagos recently.

The catalytic financing solution addresses daily struggles with clean water and safe sanitation, which impact health, livelihoods, and well-being, while strengthening delivery systems for WASH solutions.

Launched on Monday, November 24, 2025, at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos, the initiative signals a shared commitment to tackling one of Nigeria’s most pressing development challenges.

Abubakar Suleiman, Managing Director of Sterling Bank, said sustainable development hinges on collaboration and targeted investment in frontline businesses and people.

“By providing accessible financing to entrepreneurs in this critical social sector, we ensure progress reaches communities that need it most. This product aligns with our HEART strategy and commitment to improving quality of life through impact-driven initiatives,” Suleiman stated.

Gilbert Okpono, Nigeria Senior Partnership Account Manager at Water.org, stressed the transformative power of financing WASH businesses.

“Financial inclusion is critical to solving the global water and sanitation crisis. By expanding access to affordable financing, we enable households and WASH entrepreneurs to improve services, reach more communities, and transform lives,” Okpono said.

He added that the partnership reflects a belief in rippling benefits across health, education, and economic opportunity, marking a major step toward sustainable scaling.

The loan supports WASH entrepreneurs, small business owners, and community service providers with flexible financing to expand operations, boost health, livelihoods, and educational outcomes.

Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO of Sterling One Foundation, linked the initiative to the foundation’s mission of catalysing lasting social impact across Africa.

“Our Foundation catalyses initiatives that deliver real, lasting change. Access to safe water and sanitation is one of the most powerful investments in community well-being. We are proud to partner with Water.org and Sterling Bank for inclusive, scalable, and sustainable solutions,” Ibekwe affirmed.

The launch event gathered development partners, WASH entrepreneurs, media, policymakers, and community organisations to discuss coordinated financing, supportive policies, and market-driven solutions to close Nigeria’s WASH access gap.

Interested beneficiaries can visit the initiative’s website for more details.


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Access Holdings Shareholders Approved to Raise N40bn Capital Through Private Placement

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Access Holdings Plc has received the approval of its shareholders to raise additional capital of up to N40 billion or such other amount or their equivalent in foreign currencies, via private placement.

The shareholders gave the approval as part of the special resolutions at Access Holdings Plc Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on Thursday December 18.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), Access Holdings said the new ordinary shares created in connection with the private placement, will be allotted at a price of N20.25 to one or more investors in such tranches and on such terms and conditions as shall be determined by the Board.

Access Holdings Plc Board of Directors is authorised to consider, negotiate, approve, and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities, and timeline for the private placement.

The Board was also authorised to consider, negotiate, approve and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities and timeline for the private placement.

The shareholders also approved for the issued share capital of Access Holdings Plc to be increased from N26 658 billion to N27.646 billion by the creation and addition of 1,975,308,641 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each ranking pari-passu with the existing ordinary shares of the Company.


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