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Q2 outlook for Oil & What it means for the Nigerian Economy

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable

The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn. The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.

As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand. A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.

Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk

One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation. Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.

Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts

If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2. This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.

Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers. Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.

Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook

Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.

The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets.  When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.

What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?

Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks. With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget. The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.

WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?

Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher. The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.

Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors. A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.

If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.

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Xenophobic Attacks: Anonymous Nigeria Threatens to Leak South African Stolen Data

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Anonymous Nigeria, hacktivism, known for launching coordinated cyberattacks and protests in support of socio-political movements, has threatened to leak stolen South African government data unless its demands were met.

Xenophobic Attacks: Anonymous Nigeria Threatens to Leak South African Stolen Data

The group, called for the department to stop xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa, or it will expose the data.

“They call themselves correctional services, but they can’t correct the citizens. What a shame,” the group said in its Telegram channel, MyBroadband reported.

“They killed a lot of Nigerians while the so-called correctional services watched and the ministry of justice.”

It is immediately know if Anonymous Nigeria is affiliated to Nullsec Nigeria.

But in a post on a hacker forum, Nullsec Nigeria included a link showcasing an example of data stolen from the department.

It included two bid invitation notices, bid results, a copy of the bids received, and a notice of a bid awarded in various formats.

“We’ll expose all your evil deeds for the world to see, unless this attack stops. But if not, we’ll leak everything they got,” Nullsec Nigeria said.

“Unless the government of South Africa ends these xenophobic attacks on Nigeria, we’ll expose everything about you, your evil deeds will be exposed, and the world shall know.”

MyBroadband asked the Department of Correctional Services about the claimed breach and Nullsec Nigeria’s demands, but it did not immediately respond to our questions.

Nullsec Nigeria also claimed responsibility for breaching several other entities in South Africa, while responding to an X post about its OpSouthAfrica campaign in its Telegram channel.

“I wanna express something here. I saw a report on the #OpSouthAfrica hack by Nullsec Nigeria, but it was stolen by another person,” it said. “Tag the real breachers next time.”

In a separate thread on the hacker forum, Nullsec Nigeria also claimed responsibility for breaching the Ephraim Mogale Local Municipality’s systems.

It claimed to have hacked the local government’s website and threatened to expose “everything you got for others to see how heartless you are. You killed mothers, brothers, students.”

Nullsec Nigeria said the breach and the threats were in response to the xenophobic attacks on and killing of Nigerians and the South African government’s supposed silence on the issue.

“These attacks are still going on in the dark, and we’ll expose them all. If the South African government doesn’t act first, the whole of South Africa will suffer,” it said.

“This is just a wave. These documents are about 11GB, but we decided to pull just this one.”

Its post included two images: one for a public hearing and another, a handwritten tender document for the appointment of an insurance service provider.

It also included a link to several other documents, including an old annual report, council resolutions, financial statements, and various other notices.

The Nigerian Government recently announced plans to bring citizens back to the country from South Africa after violent protests over foreign nationals in the country erupted earlier in May.

President Cyril Ramaphosa condemned the protests and criminal acts directed at foreign nationals in his From the Desk of The President weekly newsletter on 11 May 2026.

He emphasised the recent demonstrations and attacks did not represent the views of the South African people, nor the government’s policy.

“These are the acts of opportunists who are exploiting the legitimate grievances, particularly those of the poor, under the false guise of ‘community activism’,” The President said.

“Some of these people are assuming functions that only state officials are permitted to perform, including stopping people to check identification and conducting searches of private property.”

He added that such lawlessness would not be tolerated, regardless of who the perpetrators or victims were.


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MTN Targets 8m Homes in Fibre Expansion Drive

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MTN Nigeria says it plans to pass fibre to eight million homes over the next three years as part of efforts to deepen broadband penetration and expand digital service offerings across the country.

MTN Targets 8m Homes in Fibre Expansion Drive

Tobe Okigbo

Tobe Okigbo, Chief Corporate Services and Sustainability Officer, disclosed this at the MTN Media Innovation Programme (MIP) Alumni “Ask Me Anything” session held on Saturday.

Okigbo said the telecom company was making significant investments in home fibre infrastructure despite challenges such as regulatory approvals, physical deployment requirements and the long period needed to recover costs.

According to him, fibre broadband differs from mobile internet services because customers pay for connection speed rather than bandwidth consumption.

He said the investment formed part of MTN’s broader strategy to gradually shift customers from mobile-heavy internet usage to fixed broadband services for home connectivity.

Okigbo noted that the global telecommunications industry was evolving beyond traditional voice and data services, driven by advances in artificial intelligence, 5G, smart devices and internet-connected homes.

He warned that telecom operators that fail to adapt risk becoming mere providers of connectivity infrastructure while technology companies capture greater value from digital services.

“The future of telecoms is no longer just about expanding coverage. It is also about building services and platforms around network infrastructure to remain relevant and competitive,” he said.

On recent tariff increases, Okigbo said the adjustments were necessary to address rising operating costs, inflation and sector sustainability concerns.

He cited increased diesel prices and other operational expenses as major factors affecting the cost of delivering telecom services in Nigeria.

According to him, tariff pricing should increasingly reflect market realities and inflation trends, while allowing consumers to switch providers offering better value.

Speaking on service quality, Okigbo said MTN had compensated customers in cases of poor network performance and remained in discussions with regulators on accountability for service failures.

He explained that discussions were ongoing to distinguish between network issues caused directly by operators and those resulting from external factors such as vandalism, construction activities and infrastructure damage.

Okigbo said MTN supported compensating customers for genuine service lapses but sought clarity on regulatory parameters guiding such liabilities.

He added that fibre deployment remained more complex than mobile network expansion because it involved physical cable installation, local government approvals and detailed service planning.

On mobile money operations, Okigbo said MTN Group had acquired a 60 per cent stake in MoMo across its markets to strengthen competitiveness and improve customer experience.

He said the future of telecoms would also be shaped by embedded connectivity, smart homes, connected vehicles and broader Internet of Things adoption.


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World Bank Blocks Social Media Comments from Nigerians over Loan Backlash

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World Bank has restricted comments on its Instagram page after thousands of Nigerians flooded the platform begging them to stop lending money to Nigeria.

World Bank Blocks Social Media Comments from Nigerians over Loan Backlash

The protest erupted after reports that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is seeking a fresh $1.25 billion dollar loan for approval on June 26.

Some Nigerians asked the World Bank to provide more details about the purpose of the loan and how the funds would be managed.

Others said the country should reduce dependence on foreign loans and focus on improving local revenue.

The federal government has continued to defend its borrowing plans.

Officials say the funds will support economic reforms, development projects and efforts to strengthen the economy.

Nigeria remains one of the major borrowers from the World Bank in Africa, with different administrations securing loans over the years for infrastructure, social programmes and economic support.


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