E-Financial
Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut, What Does this Mean for Nigeria?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
The Federal Reserve caught markets completely off-guard this week by lowering interest rates by 50 basis points.
It’s the first unscheduled, emergency rate cut since October 2008 and also marks the biggest one-time cut since then.
Rising concerns over the coronavirus outbreak impacting economic growth have forced central banks across the world to ease monetary policy with the Federal Reserve joining the squad. According to the Fed, “the fundamentals of the U.S economy remain strong. However, the virus poses evolving risks to economic activity.” This emergency rate cut certainly opens doors to further rate cuts in the future which is good news for emerging markets including Nigeria.
Lower US interest rates may provide an opportunity for the Central Bank of Nigeria to ease monetary policy in an effort to stimulate consumption which accounts for 80% of GDP. These efforts may be complicated by inflation which rose for the fifth straight month to 12.3% in January 2020. Although one of the central bank’s objective is to achieve price stability, a rate cut in the face of the coronavirus outbreak could support economic growth in 2020.
Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy has improved over the past few weeks amid positive economic fundamentals and encouraging Q4 GDP data. However, falling oil prices, global growth concerns and questions whether Nigeria will meet its oil revenue goal have fostered a sense of caution.
On the bright side, Nigeria reclaimed its title as the largest economy in Africa after South Africa entered a technical recession. Unstable domestic conditions inspired by power cuts weighed heavily on output and business confidence in South Africa with shaky global conditions compounding to the pain. While Nigeria was able to expand 2.55% in Q4, South Africa’s economy went the other direction by contracting 1.4%.
It remains uncertain whether Nigeria will be able to mirror a similar expansion in Q1 of 2020 due to severely depressed Oil prices and slowing global growth. The commodity has dropped over 20% since the start of the year and could weaken further on demand side fears. Given how roughly 90% of export earnings and over 50% of government revenues are from crude exports, this certainly presents significant risks to economic growth.
The government needs to find other sustainable revenue sources to reduce exposure to external risks. It is widely known that diversification remains the key to Nigeria’s woes but this requires massive investments in infrastructure and time. There has been a push to expanding the tax base to raise non-oil revenues, but it remains to be seen whether this will have the desired results. Value added tax (VAT) has been increased from 5% to 7.5%. This could line the government’s coffers but it may come at the expense of rising inflation.
All eyes will be on the OPEC meeting this week which is expected to conclude with the cartel initiating deeper supply cuts. While such an outcome could push oil prices higher, the upside will most likely be limited by demand side uncertainties fuelled by the virus outbreak.
Renaissance Capital Africa (Rencap) has named Zenith Bank Plc its top conviction pick among Nigerian banks, ahead of GTCO and AccessCorp, in a fresh research report highlighting the lender’s robust balance sheet and dividend potential despite sector headwinds.
Zenith Bank
The comprehensive review of the Nigerian banking industry notes that Zenith’s current market valuation lags its improving fundamentals, even as the NGX Banking Index posts strong gains recently.
Rencap upgraded Zenith from HOLD to BUY, lifting its target price by 96 per cent based on a lower risk-free rate from falling government bond yields, refined beta estimates, and expectations of cleaner assets post-forybearance resolutions.
Balance Sheet Strength Drives Outlook
Analysts project challenges to earnings growth from anticipated Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate cuts but foresee higher dividend payouts from resolved forbearance and single obligor loan (SOL) exposures alongside rising cash profits.
“Although we expect banks to face challenges in growing earnings… the balance sheet clean-up… will support higher dividend payouts relative to prior years,” the report states, ranking Zenith first, followed by GTCO and AccessCorp.
Key positives include loan write-offs that bolstered asset quality, enabling sustainable growth amid financial system reforms.
Dividend Recovery in Focus
Sector profitability from 2023-2024 was inflated by unrealised foreign exchange gains, which regulations barred from cash dividends, capping payouts despite headline profits.
Zenith historically led payout ratios in 2021-2022 via strong cash generation and capital discipline; Rencap expects a rebound as pressures ease, attracting income-focused investors.
Tier-1 Leadership Reinforced
Zenith Bank recently topped Nigeria’s tier-1 capital rankings for the 16th straight year, per The Banker magazine (Financial Times), affirming its resilience and positioning for long-term value creation.
CBN
- Access Bank Plc
- Fidelity Bank Plc
- First Bank of Nigeria Ltd
- Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank)
- United Bank for Africa (UBA)
- Zenith Bank Plc
- FCMB (First City Monument Bank) – currently pushing to raise additional capital to secure its international licence.
- Wema Bank
- Standard Chartered Bank (Nigeria)
- Citibank Nigeria
- Stanbic IBTC Bank
- Sterling Bank
- Globus Bank
- Premium Trust Bank
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revised the minimum capital applicable to all categories of regulated capital market entities after 10 years.
The minimum capital review, according to the SEC, is informed by the need to strengthen market resilience, enhance investor protection, align capital adequacy with the evolving risk profile of market activities, and ensure that regulated entities possess sufficient financial capacity to discharge their obligations in a sustainable manner.
“The revised Minimum Capital framework seeks to: enhance the financial soundness and operational resilience of market operators; align capital requirements with the scope, complexity, and risk exposure of regulated activities; promote market stability and systemic risk mitigation; and support innovation and orderly development of new market segments, including digital assets and commodities markets,” SEC said in a January 16 circular to market operators.
The SEC circular was sent to all entities regulated by the Commission, including but not limited to core and non-core capital market operators; market infrastructure institutions; capital market consultants; financial technology (FinTech) operators; Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs); and Commodity market intermediaries.
All affected entities are required to comply with the revised Minimum Capital Requirements on or before June 30, 2027, the circular said.
“Entities that fail to meet the prescribed requirements within the stipulated timeline shall be subject to appropriate regulatory sanctions, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as may be determined by the Commission,” SEC said.
Tier-1 Portfolio Managers (Full Scope) involved in the management of Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) and Alternative Investment Funds (Private Equity, Venture Capital, Infrastructure Funds etc) above N20 billion Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and Non-Discretionary Private Portfolio Management Services above N20 billion Assets under Management (AuM), or exposure to foreign instruments up to 40 percent of the NAV are now required to have a minimum capital of N5 billion as against N150 million.
“Any Fund and Portfolio Manager with NAV/AuM of more than N100billion should have a minimum of 10 percent of the NAV/AuM as capital,” SEC added.
For the Tier-2 fund/portfolio managers (Limited Scope) who are in the business of management of Collective Investment Schemes with limited pooled fund creation of not more than 10 times the required capital (N20 billion) on Net Asset Value (NAV), or discretionary and non-discretionary private portfolio management services of not more than N20 billion, or those exposure to foreign instruments of not more than 20 percent of the NAV, now require N2 billion as minimum capital as against low of N150 million.
Likewise, broker-dealers whose services include: client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services no longer require N300 million minimum capital to operate but N2 billion.
The SEC said the minimum capital review from 2015 low is in line with its mandate under the Investments and Securities Act 2025 to regulate and develop the Nigerian capital market.
Also, Tier 1 issuing houses who do non-interest finance services, advisory & arrangement services but no underwriting now require N2 billion as against N200 million; while Tier 2 –issuing houses with underwriting and offers a ‘one-stop-shop’ for issuers, provides underwriting services, and renders advisory and product development services require N7 billion minimum capital for this business as against N200 million.
Also, the minimum capital requirement for brokers (client execution only) has been jacked up from N200 million to N600 million, while that of dealers (proprietary trading only) has been moved from N100 million to N1 billion.
Broker-Dealers’ (client execution, proprietary trading, margin/securities lending and advisory services) has been raised from N300 million to N2 billion, while Sub-Brokers’ (Digital) from N10million to N100million; Sub-Broker (Corporate) has been increased from N10million to N50 million. Also, sub-brokers’ (Individual) now need N10 million minimum capital for the business as against N2 million while inter-dealer brokers require N2 billion as against N50 million.
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