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Nigeria Week Ahead: Naira, PMI’s and Inflation in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

The past few weeks have not been kind to the Naira.

Foreign exchange shortages, rising inflation, and lower oil prices offered nothing but pain to the emerging market currency. Losses were accelerated by demand for foreign exchange currency’s outweighing any additional inflows from exporters. According to Bloomberg, the Naira spot rate is down over 4% against the dollar today, trading around N393.33 while on the parallel markets, the Naira has weakened to N480.

Given the list of negative themes threatening to sabotage Nigeria’s economic recovery, the outlook for the Naira remains clouded by uncertainty. According to Bloomberg estimates, prices are seen falling as much as 10% in 2021. Although authorities have threatened to halt the banking services of exporters in an effort to boost supplies of foreign exchange, the local currency remains under the mercy of multiple exchange rates and untamed inflation. The latest rise in the country’s short-term debt and a weaker Naira rate to sell Dollars to investors are likely to raise expectations around another devaluation, marking the third one in less than 12 months.

On the data front, all eyes will be on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures for January. The Central Bank of Nigeria composite PMI for the manufacturing sector edged down to 49.6 in December of 2020 with markets forecasting a slight dip in January. For the non-manufacturing, the PMI is seen decreasing to 45.0 after hitting 45.7 in December. While these economic reports are significant and may offer insight into the health of Africa’s largest economy, all eyes will be on the OPEC monthly report and latest inflation figures.

Oil prices hit $60 per barrel this morning, levels not seen since February 2020. The commodity is deriving strength from renewed US fiscal hopes and optimism around global economic growth stimulating demand. The OPEC monthly report on Thursday could provide fresh insight into oils outlook, especially If the report signals a faster recovery in global demand. Given how a handsome chunk of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and government revenues are sourced from oil sales, such an outcome may boost investor sentiment towards the country.

Let’s not forget about inflation. Inflationary pressures remain a thorn in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s side. In fact, untamed inflation has forced the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 11.5%. Consumer prices soared for a 16th straight month to 15.75% in December of 2020 – its highest rate since November 2017. Although the country’s borders have been re-opened to trade, inflation is still forecast to surpass 16% in January 2021.

Outside of Nigeria, it will be another busy week for global markets with earnings from the likes of Twitter, Uber & Disney, economic data from major economies and speeches by financial heavyweights in focus.


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WHO Says Ebola Risk Now at Highest Level

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World Health Organisation (WHO), yesterday, said that Ebola outbreak is “very high” but added that the global risk remains “low”.

WHO Says Ebola Risk Now at Highest Level

So far, 82 cases and seven deaths have been confirmed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), but WHO, said, the real scale of the outbreak is likely far larger, with nearly 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths reported

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, chief, WHO, said the situation was “deeply worrisome”.

He said there were now nearly 750 suspected cases in the DR Congo and 177 suspected deaths, as health workers scramble to track down contacts of everyone thought to be infected with the virus.

“The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is spreading rapidly,” he told a press conference.

“So far, 82 cases have been confirmed in DRC, with seven confirmed deaths.

“But we know in people who travelled from DRC and one death.

Measures to address the epidemic in DRC are much larger.

There are now almost 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths.”

He said the situation in Uganda was “stable”, with two cases confirmed in Uganda, including “intense contact tracing” and calling off the Martyrs’ Day commemorations, “appear to have been effective in preventing the further spread of the virus”, Tedros added.

While a US national who was working in the DRC has tested positive and been transferred to Germany for care, Tedros said another US national deemed to be a high-risk contact had been transferred to the Czech Republic.

Besides national staff already in the DRC, he said 22 international staff had been deployed to the field, “including some of our most experienced people”.

Tedros said that violence and insecurity were impeding the response to the outbreak in the DRC.

“We are now revising our risk assessment to very high at the national level, high at the regional level, and low at the global level.

“So far, 82 cases have been confirmed in DRC, with seven confirmed deaths.

“But we know the epidemic in DRC is much larger. There are now almost 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths.

“The situation in Uganda is stable, with two cases confirmed in people who travelled from DRC, with one death.”

Tedros said that violence and insecurity were impeding the response to the outbreak.

 

 


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Army Acquires New Drones to Boost Surveillance, Precision Strikes — COAS

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Nigerian Army has acquired additional drones and other advanced force multipliers to strengthen surveillance operations, improve target acquisition, and enhance precision strike and casualty evacuation capabilities.

Army Acquires New Drones to Boost Surveillance, Precision Strikes — COAS

Lt.-Gen. Waidi Shaibu, chief of Army Staff (COAS), said that the new drones will boost surveillance, precision strikes.

Shaibu, who disclosed this in a statement shared via the Nigerian Army’s official X handle, noted that the conference provided a platform for critical assessment of ongoing operations and the development of forward-looking strategies to address Nigeria’s evolving security challenges.

He said deliberations at the Nigerian Army Conference Centre, Asokoro, focused on sharpening operational responses, strengthening training frameworks and adapting to the demands of modern security warfare.

According to him, the resolutions reached are aimed at building a more agile, combat-ready, technologically driven and mission-oriented force capable of responding effectively to emerging threats.

A key highlight of the reforms is the Army’s increasing investment in modern warfare technology, including the acquisition of additional tactical drones and the reconfiguration of Army aviation assets for combat roles.

Shaibu explained that these developments have significantly enhanced intelligence gathering, precision targeting, operational mobility and casualty evacuation across various theatres of operation.

He also highlighted ongoing improvements in recruitment, advanced training, professional military education and leadership development, stressing that discipline, competence and meritocracy remain central to building a stronger institution.

Reaffirming his “soldier-first” philosophy, the COAS said troop welfare remains a top priority, stressing that “troop welfare remains non-negotiable; well-motivated soldiers operating in conducive environments are critical to mission success.”

He urged senior officers to ensure that resolutions from the conference are fully implemented in field operations, stressing that the true value of the gathering lies in measurable impact on the battlefield.

Describing the ongoing reforms, Shaibu said: “We are not just reforming the Army; we are building a lethal, technology-driven fighting force where only discipline, merit, and mission success matter.”

The Army Chief expressed appreciation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his support, as well as the Minister of Defence, Minister of State for Defence, Chief of Defence Staff, service chiefs and intelligence agencies for their continued collaboration.

The conference ended with the presentation of commendation plaques to senior officers recognized for outstanding contributions to operational effectiveness.

 


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UK Special Envoy for Freedom of Religion or Belief Concludes Visit to Nigeria

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The UK Special Envoy for Freedom of Religion or Belief (FoRB), David Smith MP, concluded a three-day visit to Abuja this week, marking Nigeria as the first focus country he has visited under the UK’s FoRB strategy.

During the visit, David Smith MP held a wide range of meetings with senior Nigerian government officials, religious leaders, civil society organisations, and local communities – reflecting the UK’s commitment to sustained, practical engagement and partnership on freedom of religion or belief in Nigeria.

Meetings included discussions with the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the Honourable Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, and the Governor of Plateau State, Caleb Mutfwang.

The Special Envoy also met with the co-chairs of the Nigeria Inter-Religious Council, Archbishop Daniel Okoh, President of the Christian Association of Nigeria, and HRH the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar III, President-General of the National Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs.

At the end of the visit, the UK Special Envoy for Freedom of Religion or Belief, David Smith MP, said: “Over the past few days, I have been honoured to meet a wide range of people — from senior government figures and civil society to faith leaders and local communities. I came to listen, learn, and see both how freedom of religion or belief is experienced in everyday life, and how it connects to – and is a core part of addressing – Nigeria’s wider challenges around security and cohesion.

“Some of the most powerful moments of this visit were at community level. Visiting Father Emmanuel Unamba’s parish and meeting Christian and Muslim neighbours living side by side was a real reminder that peaceful coexistence is something people build every day through leadership, dialogue, and shared responsibility.

“What I take away from this visit is the importance of further progress being Nigerian led, rooted in strong institutions and inclusive dialogue, with FoRB at its heart. The UK will continue to support practical efforts in ensuring greater peace, security and prosperity for all.”

The visit also included a roundtable with partners of the UK’s Strengthening Peace and Resilience in Nigeria (SPRiNG) programme, a £38 million UK government-funded conflict and resilience programme operating primarily in Kaduna, Katsina, Benue and Plateau states.

During the visit, Special Envoy David Smith MP held meetings with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, the Nigerian National Human Rights Commission, and civil society organisations working at the intersection of insecurity and religious freedom. He also visited the National Mosque and the National Ecumenical Centre in Abuja.

Speaking to the various stakeholders, Mr Smith called for greater tolerance across religion or belief in Nigeria and hoped that the cohesion he saw on a community level in the capital, could be achieved nation-wide with the same resolve. He hoped to continue these dialogues with interlocutors in the UK.

The visit builds on the momentum of President Tinubu’s State Visit to the United Kingdom in March 2026, which reinforced the UK-Nigeria Strategic Partnership and included interfaith events attended by President Tinubu and His Majesty The King, underlining both countries’ shared commitment to fostering constructive interfaith dialogue.


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