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How is the Coronavirus Impacting Nigeria’s Economy?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

On March 26, Nigeria joined many other nations banning flights into the country and urging shelter-in-place, social isolation practices amid the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. President Buhari approved a 10-billion-Naira grant to the epicentre Lagos to fight the outbreak in the region and a five-billion-Naira grant to support the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.

Exports of Oil and Gas will continue and more fiscal and monetary policy measures will be needed, said the president. Having left interest rates unchanged during its March meeting, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) still has scope to reduce its key rates if inflationary pressures recede.

This raises the central question of what will happen to inflation levels. Food prices may rise sharply if measures are not taken to cap them under the current circumstances. Prices of pharmaceuticals, masks, and hand sanitiser in Europe were capped as part of governmental measures to control skyrocketing prices for these goods, for example.

Other goods which feed into price benchmarks are gasoline and electricity. These are expected to fall along with the price of Oil and government coffers should see some relief from the fuel subsidy, which had risen on the back of higher Oil prices earlier this year.

Additionally, the Naira is weakening and may fall further against other currencies if foreign reserves decline below $30 billion. A weaker Naira would add to inflationary pressures.

All told, the coronavirus pandemic is expected to have an unprecedented impact on the Nigerian economy. The disease represents a major threat to the economy because of plummeting Oil prices and close trading ties with China. While China is in the recovery stage of its coronavirus outbreak, the country’s industrial growth fell by 13.5 percent in the first quarter.

As industry is one of the biggest consumers of Oil with transportation being another, Oil prices could fall further than the 60 percent they already have since the beginning of the year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that with each 10 percent fall in Oil prices, Oil exporting countries like Nigeria will see a 0.6 percent drop in GDP and an increase in fiscal deficits of 0.8 percent of GDP. Under the current circumstances, the federal government appears well aware after announcing a 10.6-trillion-Naira cut in the 2020 budget and a change in the benchmark Oil price from $50 to $30 per barrel.

The emergency should be a wakeup call for Nigeria to reduce its dependence on the Oil industry in order to weather future storms and black swan events. This was the direction taken by the CBN during its Growth 2.0 roundtable. Along with an initiative to depreciate the rate of foreign exchange sales to foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) to roughly N380.00, the reinvigorated drive towards diversification may help to stimulate interest in Nigeria’s financial instruments.

Nonetheless, the CBN may be forced to cut interest rates in the second half of the year if global conditions fail to improve. Fiscal measures may need support from an IMF loan after the fund expressed concerns over the global landscape and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on African countries, extending emergency financing of up to $50 billion.

There is little doubt that aggressive monetary policy and strong fiscal responses must be put in place to cushion the damage inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak in Nigeria. Such steps would increase confidence for FPI’s to keep investing in Nigeria’s financial instruments and position the economy on the path to recovery after the pandemic is over.


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E-Financial

ACAMB Educates Content Creator to Curb Misinformation on Bank Recapitalisation

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In a bid to foster accurate public discourse as well as protect the stability of the financial sector, the Association of Corporate and Marketing Professionals in Banks (ACAMB) has stepped in to educate renowned content creator, Unofficial Osas, following his misrepresentation of facts concerning the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation drive, and subsequent invitation by the Nigerian Police Force.

ACAMB Educates Content Creator to Curb Misinformation on Bank Recapitalisation

ACAMB

The intervention by ACAMB led to the successful retraction of a misleading video regarding the CBN recapitalisation policy, demonstrating the Association’s commitment to its core mandate of public enlightenment.

In his official apology video, the content creator stated, “I was invited by the Nigerian police force national cyber crime centre in Abuja over the video I posted on the 15th of December, where i spoke about 12 banks that were shut down in relation to the CBN recapitalisation policy. I would like to offer an official retraction of that video and want to reiterate that no bank is shutting down.

“As a matter of fact, most of the banks have now met the ₦500 billion minimum capital base for banks with international and the N200bn for national banks recapitalisation requirements, so no bank is shutting down.

“I want to specifically appreciate ACAMB. They were very professional in handling this case and did well to educate and enlighten me on the recapitalisation process. I am now better informed and know better”

Commenting on the resolution, President of ACAMB, Jide Sipe, reinforced the Association’s dedication to protecting the integrity of the banking sector. “ACAMB stands for the restoration of professional banking ethics and public confidence through seamless information management and public enlightenment.

“We believe that an informed public is an empowered public. By engaging Unofficial Osas, we ensured that accurate information regarding the resilience and strength of our banks was disseminated to the millions of Nigerians who follow him.”

The Intervention shows ACAMB is dedicated to evolving strategies that enhance and sustain a good image for the nation’s banking sector as well as assist in fostering better banking habits among Nigerians.


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FirstCap MD says Payment Security Remains Biggest Barrier to Bankable Gas and Power Projects

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Ukandu E. Ukandu, Managing Director/CEO of FirstCap Limited, a leading investment banking firm and subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc., has reaffirmed that payment security remains the most decisive factor in determining whether gas and power projects in Nigeria secure financing.

He shared this perspective during a panel discussion on project bankability at the 2026 SPE Lagos Energy Week.

Ukandu noted that although several risks influence financing decisions, payment risk consistently emerges as the key barrier to financial close.
“Every major risk matter, but payment risk is the ultimate deal‑breaker. Without strong payment security and disciplined collections, no project can attract sustainable financing,” he said.

He explained that lenders typically evaluate three core risk pillars, payment reliability, foreign‑exchange exposure, and contract enforceability, with payment reliability presenting the greatest challenge across Nigeria’s energy value chain. Persistent collection inefficiencies, rising arrears, and liquidity pressures continue to weaken investor confidence.

To enhance payment security, Ukandu highlighted mechanisms widely used by financiers, including letters of credit, bank guarantees, escrow accounts with payment‑waterfall structures, reserve and sinking funds, sovereign or sub‑sovereign support, and take‑or‑pay offtake agreements.

Addressing foreign exchange risk, he noted that volatility remains difficult to manage, especially for projects with dollar‑denominated costs but naira‑denominated revenues. Lenders typically mitigate this through foreign exchange ‑linked tariff indexation, partial dollarisation for credible industrial offtakers, escrow protections, selective hedging, and foreign exchange reserve buffers.

However, he cautioned that indexation alone seldom eliminates exposure due to regulatory limits and timing delays.

On legal and regulatory certainty, Ukandu stressed the need for contracts that are enforceable and clearly structured, particularly around take‑or‑pay obligations, termination payments, step‑in rights, and dispute‑resolution frameworks. He added that factors such as tariff adjustments, licence changes, and price controls can significantly affect project viability if they are not fully addressed at the contracting stage.

While fiscal incentives such as tax holidays and accelerated depreciation can strengthen project economics, Ukandu emphasised that they cannot compensate for weak fundamentals.
“Incentives make a good project better, but they do not make a weak project bankable. Cash‑flow reliability and disciplined foreign exchange management must come first,” he said. He also noted that naira‑based incentives may lose value if project revenues are not indexed.

He concluded by urging industry players to prioritise revenue security from the earliest stages of project structuring: “Protect returns at the source. Build strong offtake arrangements with solid credit support and currency alignment to ensure cash is received in full and on time.”


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E-Financial

Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

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Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc (Sterling HoldCo) has begun allotting 12,581,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at ₦7.00 per share from its 2025 Public Offer.

Sterling HoldCo Starts Allotment of Oversubscribed Public Offer Shares

Sterling HoldCo

The process follows Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approvals.

The offer, opened September 15, 2025, drew 18,280 applications for 16.84 billion shares worth ₦117.88 billion—109.79 per cent oversubscribed.

Valid applications from 18,276 shareholders totalled 13.81 billion shares; all compliant applicants receive full allotments.

Refunds for rejects/excess, plus interest, process via RTGS/NIBSS by February 17, 2026, handled by Pace Registrars Limited.

Shares credit to CSCS accounts by the same date; new accounts held in pool pending documentation.

The raise bolsters capital for banking subsidiaries, injects ₦10 billion into SterlingFI Wealth Management to meet SEC rules, and funds credit expansion, innovation, and support for businesses/households.

Strong Financials, Diversified Growth

FY25 interim results show 99 per cent profit before tax growth; gross earnings up 46 per cent to ₦476.5 billion; assets at ₦3.92 trillion; deposits up 18 per cent to ₦2.98 trillion; shareholders’ funds up 39 per cent to ₦424 billion.

Cost-to-income ratio improved to 63 per cent from 72 per cent.

Subsidiaries—Sterling Bank Limited (conventional), The Alternative Bank Limited (non-interest, 150+ branches)—comply with CBN capital rules.

Initiatives include Mata Zalla (women tricycle training) and Plateau agriculture programme.

The offer attracted first-time retail investors, broadening ownership.

Sterling HoldCo welcomes new shareholders, poised for sustained growth and economic impact.


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