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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

On April 20, 2020 the screaming headlines on CNN was that the price of WTI crude oil had fallen by 306% to $-37.63 per barrel, the first time on record that oil price has hit negative territory. It is surreal how things come around.

I wrote this article on April 20, 2016 after the colossal collapse in Oil prices – and surprised how relevant it is even today.

What was our experience as a country, what did we learn from it and how is it that we have once again been caught desperately unawares?

Below is the first part of the article.

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.

Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.

Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b. Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.

There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity. We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.

Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.

I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship.


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E-Business

NOTAP to Commercialise University Research, Expands Patent Drive

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National Office for Technology Acquisition and Transfer (NOTAP), has commenced the process of patenting and commercialisation of research works by universities and other research institutions in the country.

NOTAP to Commercialise University Research, Expands Patent Drive

Dr. Obiageli Amadiobi, director general of NOTAP

Dr. Obiageli Amadiobi, director general of NOTAP, stated this in Abuja, during an interaction with journalists on her achievements since assuming office.

Speaking on the theme, “Strengthening Indigenous Capacity: NOTAP’s Drive for Technology Transfer, Local Content Development, and Innovative activities,” Amadiobi said the agency had involved both the academia and industry so that researchers can work on topics brought forward for commercialisation purpose.

“My minister is very intentional about this– very intentional about commercialisation of research results, which we have already submitted to him. They are meaningful researches, which we need to commercialise.

“We have established 69 intellectual property technology transfer offices in 69 universities that we are still counting. We have informed the vice chancellors of Nigerian universities to set up such offices and we will come and educate them on intellectual property and technology transfers.

“As we are doing this, we are also taking record of all the researchers of these universities and research centres and documenting them in a compendium.

“So, we have compendiums from the universities to us and we put them in a database. If you will recall, recently, the ministry, our supervising ministry, which is the Federal Ministry of Innovation, Science, and Technology, launched a programme titled Energise Commercialisation. This entirely was for commercialisation of all R&Ds,” she said.

On research Institutions carrying out research on areas of industry needs, she said, “NOTAP is bridging the gap between research and development with industry needs, “it is on our programme called the NITDF, NOTAP Industry Technology Transfer Fellowship. By this programme, we engage the universities and the industries, in what we call the triple helix. We liaise with the universities and the industries to sponsor, the industries will sponsor a Ph.D candidate in a Nigerian university to conduct relevant researches.

“They will provide the topics that they want researches for and such students will research on that with the assistance of the industries, because they wear the shoes, so they know where it pinches them. But usually, there are Ph.D candidates already established. This year alone, we certified about 15 of them to enter into this programme and they have gone into the various universities.

“And we are still looking for people to update some of the projects; the research topics we already have. But we are not getting enough persons to do the researches. So, we are going to do further advertisement to see if other candidates will come up.


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FG Unveils Digital Postcode System for MDAs

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Federal government has launched a drive to standardise operations across all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) through the nationwide adoption of the new National Digital Alphanumeric Postcode System.

FG Unveils Digital Postcode System for MDAs

Dr Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, launched the initiative at a high-level stakeholder workshop on Thursday in Abuja.

The conference, themed “Embedding the Nigerian Digital Postcode in Public Service Delivery,” brought together key stakeholders to discuss the adoption of the system across government institutions.

Represented by Nadungu Gagare, permanent secretary of the Ministry,  declared that the initiative was a critical pillar for the country’s economic and security framework.

“The Nigerian Digital Postcode represents far more than an improvement to postal services. It is a strategic national asset. Without accurate location intelligence, governments struggle to plan effectively, emergency responders lose valuable time, and financial institutions face verification challenges,” he said.

Tijani said the Alphanumeric digital postcode system was a pathway and a defining moment for Nigeria’s digital transformation under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu.

He said an accurate national addressing system would enable government agencies to plan better, improve emergency response, support credible census and elections, expand financial inclusion and ensure citizens were not excluded from essential services because of poor location data.

The Minister commended NIPOST for leading the initiative and urged MDAs and state governments to integrate the system into their operations, stressing that its success would depend on collaboration, interoperability, and nationwide adoption.

Omotola Odeyemi, postmaster general and chief executive officer, Nigerian Postal Service (NIPOST), explained that the digital postcode system creates a “common language of location” for the entire government.

She urged federal and subnational entities to integrate the infrastructure into their daily operations to maximise its value.

“Just as digital identity has helped to establish who a citizen is, this National Digital Postcode helps us to determine where services, opportunities, and interventions should be delivered. Its success will not be measured by the number of postcodes that we generate but by the lives that we improve,” the NIPOST boss explained.

Mrs Didi Esther Walson-Jack, head of the Civil Service of the Federation, represented by Dr Abdul Sule Garba, permanent Secretary of the Service Welfare Office, pledged full administrative backing for the rollout.

She noted that the civil service would be properly equipped to adapt to the data-driven system.

“The operationalisation of the Nigerian digital postcode is a strategic initiative that has the potential to significantly improve public administration, service delivery, and digital governance across the country,” Mrs Walson-Jack added.

The workshop featured live demonstrations and technical panel sessions focused on linking the new digital postcode system directly into national healthcare, social protection, education, and electoral planning.

 

 


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Kaspersky Warns of a Large-scale Campaign using Fake Free Software to Deploy a RAT via ScreenConnect

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A remote admin tool ScreenConnect is being distributed through fake websites designed to mimic the official pages of well-known software products.

In total, researchers identified more than 90 domains spanning 10 languages, including English, Arabic, Spanish, Chinese, German, Portuguese, and Russian, enabling the attackers to reach a wide range of victims worldwide. The campaign targets both individual users and organisations using Windows.

After detecting an incident through its Managed Detection and Response, Kaspersky uncovered a large-scale campaign in which attackers used fake websites to spread installer archives disguised as popular software, including OBS Studio, DNS Jumper, DS4Windows, Glary Utilities and Bandicam.

To drive traffic to these pages, the threat actor also used search engine optimisation techniques to place them high in search results.

Across more than 90 identified fraudulent software sites, the same tactic was observed: victims who downloaded what appeared to be legitimate software instead received a hidden ScreenConnect remote administration tool, which gave the attackers persistent access to compromised devices and allowed them to deploy AsyncRAT, an open-source trojan capable of giving them full control over infected systems.

Domain registrations linked to this campaign peaked in February 2026; in 2025, the same attacker had used fake websites to disguise malicious installers as games.

Infection occurs through malicious archives containing a legitimate, signed Microsoft file, install.exe, alongside the install.res.1033.dll library. The DLL is loaded onto the device via a DLL sideloading technique and deploys a ScreenConnect service that awaits further instructions from the attackers.

“The campaign targets both users downloading free utilities from the Internet and corporate networks, where remote access tools are often allowlisted and granted elevated privileges.

“Its danger lies in its potential to facilitate large-scale credential theft and unauthorised access to systems, with the stolen data typically later resold on dark web forums,” says Denis Kulik, lead SOC Analyst at Kaspersky.

 


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