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Emefiele and the Burden of a Prophet

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By Jackson Ugbechie

Dateline June 2015: Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), banned importation of 41 items which the apex bank classified as ‘not valid for forex’.

Emefiele and the Burden of a Prophet

Mr. Godwin Emefiele, CBN governor

These items ranged from consumables like rice, poultry products, vegetables and processed vegetable products to building materials like cement, roofing sheets, etc.

The aim was to encourage local manufacture of these items, all of which can be produced locally. The other objective of the ban was to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign reserves. Crude oil (the major source of forex) was beginning to lose its allure in pricing. Simply put: national income (inflow) was shrinking perilously.

Today, by benefit of hindsight, it could be appropriately said that Emefiele was a prophet who saw tomorrow and quickly rallied his people to prepare for the impending storm.

Not long afterwards, the real storm came bearing down on global economies. Nigeria and other nations with huge reliance on crude oil revenues took a heavy shellacking from the storm.

Crude oil prices took a dip. From a mere dip to a free fall until it bottomed out at $27.67 in 2016.

Fast-forward 2020. Oil price is still low. Recovery has been sluggish, accentuated by the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nigeria with a population of about 200 million, low export, heavy import-dependent economy and a lifestyle that borders on flamboyance has been much hobbled by the oil price drop.

The naira is still under pressure but it could have been worse if CBN is still funding the importation of the over 40 banned items.

It could have been more difficult defending the naira in the forex market. This is the sense in which Emefiele deserves commendation for his uncommon boldness to stop the issuance of forex for the importation of these items.

Emefiele’s foresight, vision and strong anticipatory hunch has saved Nigeria from what could have been the worst economic crisis in human history since the Great Depression.

The decision to declare over 40 items ‘not valid for forex’ must have been a difficult one to take. But great leadership is about making tough calls; taking, sometimes, unpopular decisions.

Emefiele did that at the most auspicious time. It was contrary to the wishes of the advanced economies of the West which see Nigeria as their largest, most profitable market in Africa.

A policy to encourage local manufacture and patronage of locally made goods should be music to any patriotic Nigerian.

It will encourage honing of skills, create jobs in millions, stop the drain on our external reserves and ultimately shore up the sagging strength of the nation’s primary sector.

But you don’t expect such decision to go down well with the advanced nations whose major market in Africa was about to be shut.

This explains the baleful treatise conjured by The Economist magazine to deride the CBN policy. The usually opinionated UK magazine had in the wake of the ban on importation of over 40 items published a self-serving satire on Emefiele’s efforts to save the naira.

The copiously disingenuous article in The Economist tried to denigrate the CBN policy. But that was not enough to make Emefiele change his mind. The multiple-award winning central banker, convinced that the policy was in the best interest of the county, stuck to his gun.

He was unwavering. Now, Emefiele has been proved right and The Economist wrong. Nigerians are producing the banned items from grains to roofing sheets.

No matter the cynicism from those who preach classical textbook economic theories to Nigeria but act otherwise in their native countries, the truth is that foreigners cannot love Nigeria more than Nigerians. Emefiele proved this truism by raising the red flag when he foresaw the lurking economic turbulence.

The Nigerian naira dilemma is a peculiar mess created largely by a clan of crooked Nigerian elite, it will never go away by mere application of economic theories that never worked anywhere, even in the advanced West.  The Nigerian problem can only go away by the application of well-thought through policies as Emefiele did.

To better appreciate the Emefiele magic, let’s consider this scenario. In 2013 at a time when crude price was $120 per barrel what CBN received to service the forex market from petroleum inflows either from petroleum products trading, royalty, taxes, NNPC etcetera was as high as $3.3 billion in a month. By June 2014 when external reserve had dropped to about $37 billion, what the nation got had dropped to less than $2 billion. Recall that the whole crisis started in July 2014 and by March 2015 when crude price had dropped to about $48pb, the nation’s reserve had gone down to $30 billion. At that point, what was coming in as forex which the CBN will use to service the market had dropped to about $1.3bn from about $3.3 billion in just over a year.

At that time, around January/February of 2015, CBN usually funds the forex market by Monday and Wednesdays with $200 million each of the days which is $400m in a week. At that time CBN was fighting the hostile market and saying we’ll defend the naira.

The inter-bank market was defending the market with about $100million per day which is $500 million per week. If you add that to the official buffer of $400m on the part of CBN, it adds up to $900m weekly. This means that in a month Nigeria needed $3.6 billion dollars minimum to fund the forex market and by interpretation fund importation.

As the price of crude continued its free fall, monthly outflow hit $4bn against an inflow of just $1.3 or $1.5 which brought net depletion of Nigeria’s reserve on a monthly basis to about $2.5 billion. If CBN had continued the depletion of our reserve from March 2015 by $2.5 billion monthly, by now Nigeria would have zero reserve. That is the stack reality.

And this is why Nigerians should commend the boldness and farsightedness of Emefiele to place a historical and landmark ban on over 40 items. Not only has he helped to boost backward integration, the policy eased pressure on the nation’s reserve.

Obviously, Nigerians are still paying dearly for their lavish lifestyle. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows significant importation of certain items. In the half-year (January – June) of 2019, Nigerians spent a total of N334.3 billion to import prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits, vinegar and tobacco. NBS says within that period Nigeria imported 21 different items with the major items including live animals, animal products, vegetable fats and oil, prepared foodstuffs, beverages, mineral products, textiles, broilers and vehicles.

Broilers, machinery and appliances form the biggest import which was estimated at N2.11 trillion. Mineral product ranked second with N1.3 trillion import in half-year 2019. Other top items on the import list include vehicles, aircraft and parts (N1.06 trillion), cement (N599 billion), metals (N386.1 billion).

In recent past before the restriction, Nigeria spent an average of $22 billion each year on food (rice, wheat, sugar, fish etc) importation. The sad fact is that all of this money go to reflate the economies of Thailand, India, China and the West.

If all of this could happen with restriction, imagine the scenario if there were no restrictions. Emefiele is indeed an unsung hero. That’s the burden of a prophet who is barely appreciated at home.

But first Nigerians must change their exotic and outlandish lifestyle. No nation builds a strong economy on importation.

_ Ugbechie, public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja.

 

 


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E-Financial

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

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Garba Umar, vice president, Nigerian Central Bureau (NCB) of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) for Africa confirmed on Tuesday that the extradition papers for Nadeem Anjarwalla , escaped Nigeria Binance executive have been finalized.

Extradition Papers Completed for Anjarwalla, Fugitive Binance Executive- INTERPOL Africa

Nadeem Anjarwalla

Umar made the announcement during a television appearance on the Nigerian news program Sunrise Daily.

“We are now doing everything possible to ensure the country complies with INTERPOL’s rules of international police cooperation by initiating the extradition process to bring him back to face justice in Nigeria,” Umar said.

Anjarwalla was originally detained by Nigerian authorities alongside fellow Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan in late February and arrested on charges of money laundering and tax evasion. He fled shortly thereafter before reportedly being found and detained by Kenyan officials just over a week ago.

Questions have swirled over the legitimacy of Anjarwalla’s and Gambaryan’s capture, with media reports suggesting that the country’s officials demanded personal information from the crypto exchange’s top users.

The duo, who were reportedly invited to the country by its government, are due back in an Abuja court for a hearing later this month.

Meanwhile, Binance claimed it was “collaborating” with the Nigerian government on its employees’ safe return.

“Binance respectfully requests that Tigran Gambaryan, who has no decision-making power in the company, is not held responsible while current discussions are ongoing between Binance and Nigerian government officials,” a recent statement from the company said.

Anjarwalla and Gambrayan aren’t the only higher-ups at the crypto exchange facing prison time.

On Tuesday, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, Binance founder and former CEO was sentenced to four months in U.S. prison after a recent jury trial found him liable for fraud related to the crash of algorithmic stablecoins Terra and Luna.

“I will do my time, conclude this phase and focus on the next chapter of my life (education),” the Binance founder said in a Tuesday X post. “I will remain a passive investor (and holder) in crypto. Our industry has entered a new phase. Compliance is super important.”

In addition to jail time, CZ will be fined $50 million, and Binance will pay $4.3 billion in penalties.

Whether or not Anjarwalla will be extradited or the crypto exchange will be able to win its reputation back amidst the push for regulatory compliance is yet unclear.

 


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PAPSS Set for Expansion To Boost Intra-Africa Payments

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The Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) which was launched to make cross-border transactions seamless, is set to capture more markets in Africa.

The plan was disclosed last week by the Chief Executive Officer of PAPSS, Mr. Mike Ogbalu, during a stakeholders’ forum held in Lagos.

Ogbolu, who was represented, said Fintech across the continent of Africa can operate more seamlessly and widely with the assistance of PAPSS.

According to him, “Currently, there are numerous impediments and challenges facing intra-African trade payments. Banks must navigate sometimes conflicting local, multi-country and multiregional regulations to enable the seamless movement of funds on behalf of their diverse customers across the continent. Operational inefficiencies and onerous compliance requirements are time-consuming impediments.”

In his opening remarks, Mr. Patrick Akinwunta, Ex Ecobank Group Managing Director & Regional Executive at Ecobank Nigeria, said banks, their customers and anyone or business involved in financial transactions across the continent of Africa stand to benefit massively from the PAPSS system.

“The essence of PAPSS is to help in cross-border financial settlement with ease, speed and precision. It is a practical process of instant delivery and a major aggregator that brings everybody together. We all need a connecting point; and PAPSS is the big umbrella.

As a centralized Financial Market Infrastructure that enables the efficient flow of money securely across African borders, minimizing risk and contributing to financial integration across the regions, PAPSS works in collaboration with Africa’s central banks to provide a payment and settlement service to which commercial banks and licensed payment service providers across the region can connect as ‘Participants’.

In his presentation, Mr. Osita Ugwu, Chief Technology Officer at PAPSS, disclosed that 60 banks have already gone live on PAPSS platform, while another 60 are doing integration.

According to him, “By year end, we are expecting 23 banks to be integrated. As of today, 60 banks are doing integration and another 60 banks are going live.

Since its launch by the African Union and the Afreximbank in 2022, several commercial banks have been onboarded on its system.

PAPSS is a pan-African payment system facilitating instant cross-border payments in local African currencies. It is a centralised platform that connects central banks, commercial banks, and other financial institutions across the continent.

The platform was launched in January 2022 by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the African Union (AU). At launch, it was sold as a system that could reduce the cost and time of cross-border payments in Africa and boost intra-African trade. It has partnered with over 25 commercial banks since its launch and helps accelerate payment processing as a real-time gross settlement system.

The system also boosts security compared to the current correspondent banking system, as it operates on a centralised platform governed by the AU and Afreximbank.

At the event, PAPSS introduced a new settlement model called the Commercial Bank Settlement Model (CBSM), which allows commercial banks to open and fund their settlement accounts at Afreximbank and manage their liquidity as per their banking requirements.


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FCMB Group Records 186% Profit Growth, Proposes 50k Dividend

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For the year ended December 31, 2023, FCMB Group Plc grew deposits, loans, assets under management, revenue and earnings and improved its environmental, social, and corporate governance scorecard. The Group recorded a profit before tax of ₦104.4 billion, a 186% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to ₦36.6 billion in 2022 and earnings growth across its business segments: Banking Group 212.6%, Consumer Finance 67.3%, Investment Management 40%, and Investment Banking 89.7%.

FCMB Group, which proposed a dividend of 50 kobo per share for its shareholders, contributed to food security and import substitution in Nigeria by increasing lending to the agricultural sector by 38.4% from N147.4 billion in 2022 to N204.3 billion in 2023. In addition, the Bank supported over 300,000 smallholder farmers, 56% of whom were women in agriculture, in rural communities to support the sector. Over $280 million of funding from DFI’s and donor agencies was raised during the year to support the attainment of sustainable development goals in critical sectors of the economy.

Leveraging its core banking business, the Group facilitated over $700 million and $100 million in export and remittance flows into Nigeria, respectively, as at December 2023.

In safeguarding the environment, it switched six additional branches of its retail and commercial banking subsidiary (First City Monument Bank Limited) from grid/diesel generators to solar power last year, taking the number of branches running on renewable energy to 160, which represents 78% of total branches.

In addition, the Bank secured funding of up to N13 billion from local development finance institutions for on-lending to customers requiring solar energy solutions to further support its commitment to driving renewable energy.

FCMB’s customer base grew by 15.6% YoY from 10.9 million to 12.5 million for the period ended December 2023, whilst users of its mobile app that offers lending, wealth and payment solutions grew by 31% YoY to 3.4 million. Similarly, the Bank’s agency banking network grew to over 164,000 agents. With an enlarged customer base, an expanded distribution platform, and the use of artificial intelligence to automate and optimise loan underwriting processes, the Group successfully disbursed over 1.5 million loans worth N100.8 billion to individuals, N14.4 billion to micro-enterprises and N177.9 billion to SMEs during the period.

Commenting on the results, the Group Chief Executive of FCMB Group Plc, Mr Ladi Balogun, said: “We continue to leverage our unique Group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that is fostering inclusive and sustainable growth in the communities we serve.

“This strategy is enabling us to deliver robust performance in spite of the challenging domestic and global environment. Barring unforeseen circumstances, we believe this trend will be sustained and accompanied by improving efficiencies arising from greater scale and ongoing digitisation”.

The results across market fundamentals also showed gross revenue of N516.4 billion for the period ended December 2023, an 82.5% growth from N283 billion for the same period the prior year. Net interest income grew by 44.8% from N122 billion in 2022 to N176.6 billion in 2023. Customer confidence in FCMB remained strong, as deposits rose by 58.5% YoY from N1.94 trillion to N3.08 trillion, just as loans and advances grew by 54% from N1.20 trillion to N1.84 trillion. The Group’s total assets increased by 48.3% from N2.98 trillion to N4.42 trillion at the end of December 2023.

FCMB Group’s Assets Under Management increased by 29.6% last year from N783.7 billion to N1.02 trillion. The value of investment banking transactions consummated by the Group rose to N945.3 billion for the period ended December 2023, compared to N857.1 billion in the same period the prior year.

FCMB Group, a financial services holding company headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria, and listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), has strategic interests in companies serving over 12.5 million customers across five key platforms: banking, consumer finance, investment management, investment banking, and financial technology. The Group and its subsidiaries are building an ecosystem that promotes inclusive and sustainable growth in their communities, primarily in Africa, its diaspora, and the United Kingdom, by connecting people, capital, and markets.


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