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NSE Index Dips, Oil Wobbles while Dollar Smiles 

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) maintained a lackluster mood on Wednesday with the All-Share Index dipping 0.17 percent, thanks to a decline in banking stocks.

 

One of the biggest losers was Royal Exchange Plc which declined 10% to trade around 0.27 Naira as of writing. Given the ongoing uncertainty presented by COVID-19, and recent depreciation in Oil prices primarily fueled by signs of the coronavirus fallout weighing on the energy sector, appetite towards local stocks may remain muted.

 

South Africa publishes shocking GDP data

 

Words fail to describe South Africa’s shocking and surreal gross domestic product data for Q2.

 

Economic growth contracted by a heart-stopping 51% q/q during the second quarter of 2020 thanks to the impacts of lockdown restrictions since the end of March 2020. This is the steepest decline since 1990 and raises concerns over the outlook for Africa’s most industrialized nation. It must be kept in mind that South Africa was already in a vulnerable situation before the coronavirus menace sunk its poisonous fangs into core services and sectors. The negative impacts continue to be reflected in economic data, as the country struggles to nurse deep wounds inflicted from tough lockdowns and rising coronavirus cases.

 

Expectations are set to mount over the South African Central Bank cutting interest rates for the sixth time this year to jumpstart economic growth. Given how inflationary pressures remain muted with consumer prices around 3.2%, this offers the SARB enough breathing room pull the rate cut trigger potentially in September or November. The key question is whether lower interest will breathe life into an economy entangled in a fierce battle against multiple risks. As of now, South Africa is predicted to experience its worst economic contraction since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

 

Despite all of this negativity, the Rand is standing tall against the Dollar and other G10 currencies today. It has even appreciated across the board since the start of September and has offered a mixed performance across the FX space quarter-to-date.

 

The South African Rand remains influenced by external drivers in the form of COVID-19 developments, US-China trade and global sentiment. If the market mood improves this week and investors able to shake concerns over possible a delay in the COVID-19 vaccine, this may bode well for the Rand.

 

Dollar bulls stage a comeback

 

After being badly mistreated by G10, Asian and Emerging market currencies over the past few months, the Dollar has had enough.

 

The former king of the currency markets is on a mission to reclaim dominance, appreciating across the board after a sell-off in stock markets prompted investors to rush towards safe-haven destinations. Dollar bulls seem to be deriving strength from not only concerns over a possible delay in the Covid-19 vaccine but the recent U.S jobs report showing a decline in the U.S unemployment rate and jump in U.S Treasury yields.

 

With the Dollar Index trading at levels not seen in four weeks around 96.30 and appreciating over 1.5% since the start of September, are bulls back in the game?

 

Looking at the technical picture, a rebound may be on the cards on the weekly timeframe following the solid move above 93.00. A weekly close beyond this point could suggest an incline towards 94.00 and 96.00 in the medium term.  If 94.00 proves to be reliable resistance, the DXY may find itself sinking back towards 93.00 and 91.15.

 

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On the daily timeframe, prices remain in a wide range with support at 92.20 and resistance around 94.00. A daily close above 94.00 could inject bulls with enough inspiration to target 94.65 which then opens the doors towards 93.00 and beyond.

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The question on the mind of many investors is whether the Dollar is able to maintain this current burst of confidence and majesty across the FX space. Although the currency is still considered as a safe-haven currency and the worlds reserve currency, it has weakened against every single G10 currency this quarter.

 

Negative themes in the form of rising coronavirus cases in the United States and political uncertainty ahead of Novembers presidential election may limit the Dollar’s upside gains. Given the fundamental forces influencing the Dollar’s longer-term outlook, prices still have the potential to decline with a move below 92.00 on the monthly timeframe acting as an early signal.

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CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol would hover around N950 per litre in the year 2026.

CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

The CBN stated this in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

In its outlook for the domestic economy, the bank made what it called baseline projections predicated on assumptions like crude oil price at an average of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

The CBN stated that domestic crude oil production is assumed to be at about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period, as premium motor spirit is expected to sell around N950, an amount higher than the current pump prices.

“The baseline projections are predicated on the following assumptions: crude oil price at an average of $60/barrel in Q4 2025 and $55/barrel in 2026 (consistent with the US EIA’s outlook that rising global crude oil inventories and supply glut would moderate prices); NFEM exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient FX market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

“Furthermore, domestic crude oil production is assumed at about 1.5 mbpd (excluding condensates) throughout the forecast period. PMS price is expected to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. Government expenditure is projected to follow the 2025-2027 MTEF/FSP path, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the $1tn economy initiative. MPR and CRR are assumed at 27.00 and 45.00 per cent, respectively. The baseline projections were generally supported by the assumption of continued improvement in business optimism and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN said.

 


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FG to Empower Artisans for Global Value

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The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to grassroots artisans to upgrade local skills to meet both national and international benchmarks and compete in the global markets.

Speaking recently during the Skill-Up Artisans (SUPA) zonal rally, Dr Afiz Ogun, director-general of the Industrial Training Fund (ITF), stated that the initiative is designed to professionalise the sector.

The rally was designed to raise awareness of the programme throughout the North-West region.

The rally saw a diverse turnout of professionals, including those in construction and engineering such as welders, fabricators, plumbers, and carpenters.

Those in the technical service comprised of electrical installers and automobile mechanics, while those in the creative and digital space were fashion designers and ICT technicians.

Represented by Muhammad Aminu, the former zonal director of the ITF, Ogun explained that the SUPA scheme seeks to convert traditional craftsmanship into sustainable livelihoods.

He emphasised that the goal is to transform artisans from job seekers into employers of labour.

“We are calling on artisans across the North-West to embrace the SUPA programme,” Ogun remarked. “This is an opportunity to enhance productivity, increase earnings, and ensure our workforce can compete on a global stage”.

According to the DG, the initiative aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, focusing on restoring dignity to manual and technical work.

He noted that a competent artisan class forms the essential foundation of a productive economy.

He further called upon traditional rulers, community leaders, and trade associations to assist the ITF in disseminating information about the programme to ensure high participation rates.

“We are here to engage the technicians, the tradespeople, and the young talents who serve as the backbone of our economy,” he added.

Nancy Ekong, director of the Technical Vocational Skills Training Department, highlighted the programme’s recent successes. She revealed that over 30,000 artisans were trained and upgraded during the initial SUPA cycle in 2025.

The ITF remains optimistic that the continued expansion of SUPA will bridge the existing skills gap in Nigeria’s industrial sector.

 


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Bill Gates Pays Ex-Wife $8Bn Charity Payout in Divorce Settlement

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American billionaire businessman Bill Gates, has paid $8 billion to his ex-wife, Melinda French Gates’ charity, five years after their split over his affairs with other women.

Bill Gates Pays Ex-Wife $8bn Charity Payout in Divorce Settlement

Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates

Gates made the $7.88 billion donation to Melinda French Gates’ Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation in 2024, The New York Times revealed.

The sum, one of the largest public donations ever recorded, was revealed in a new tax filing, which shows the first specific financial terms of the couple’s high-profile split in 2021.

Melinda resigned from The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in May 2024. Despite leaving the charity, she suggested her ex donate $12.5 billion to a new charitable foundation she intended to create.

A representative for Pivotal told the Times the $12.5 billion agreement has been fulfilled, and the nearly $8 billion donation was part of that agreement.

Melinda set up her Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation in 2022, the year after the divorce. At the end of 2023, it had $604 million on hand.

The billionaire pair split after 27 years together in 2021, embarking on what is considered the most expensive divorce settlement in the world. Melinda later received approximately $76 billion in assets.

Months later, details of Gates’ affair with a Microsoft employee were exposed.

The woman penned a letter to the company’s board in 2019, divulging details about the fling which began in 2000 and demanded that his wife, Melinda “read it”.

Microsoft’s board investigated the women’s claims and deemed the relationship “inappropriate”, the Wall Street Journal reported at the time.

Gates suddenly quit the board in March 2020 while the investigation was still in progress – and before the board could make a formal decision on the matter.

Two further bombshell reports were then revealed, alleging Gates had routinely hit on staffers at Microsoft and at the philanthropic foundation he founded alongside his wife.

A separate shocking report claimed that Gates had sought marriage advice from Jeffrey Epstein, with whom he reportedly shared a “close” relationship, having first met the convicted sex offender in 2011.

Gates’ and Epstein’s friendship first came to light in 2019, months after Epstein killed himself in his Manhattan jail cell while awaiting trial on charges of child sex trafficking.

The two men reportedly spent time together on multiple occasions, flying on Epstein’s private jet – dubbed the “Lolita Express” – and attending late-night gatherings at his Manhattan home.


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