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Resilience of the Labour Markets During COVID-19

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Gregory Kronsten

It is said by some analysts thatCOVID-19 is responsible for irreversible changes in our economies, including patterns of employment. It was therefore a revelation to read the latest national income dynamics study-coronavirus rapid mobile survey (NIDS-CRAM) from South Africa.

Based upon a sample of 10,000 individuals, wave 3 (the most recent published data) shows that active employment in the country in October was just 0.15 per cent lower than the level in pre-COVID February.

The recovery has been strong. In April, when the domestic lockdown was at its height, employment was 40 per cent lower than in February and in June, when most restrictions had been eased, it was still 20 per cent down. Additionally, the data suggests that the recovery has been in all forms of employment, and not just part-time posts created by employers nervous about future economic prospects.

The three academic authors of the section of the surveys covering the labour market, two based in the US and one in the UK, noted similar trends in other emerging markets (EMs): from the low point in April, the recovery was well underway by June in Brazil and Mexico, and by August in India and Ghana.

Closer to home, we refer to COVID-19 impact monitoring, a series of publications by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in partnership with the World Bank. The narrative is similar from the sixth and latest instalment of this smaller survey, which covers 1,950 households: 87 per cent of respondents were employed in October, compared with 86 per cent at the pre-COVID base (mid-March).

Reflecting the structure of the economy, households are divided between urban and rural. Employment was a little behind March for the former, a little ahead for the latter.

A clear trend is apparent across selected emerging markets. There is a familiar lag in the release of data from academic sources, research foundations and official statistical bodies. Job losses may have picked up again in South Africa due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and reimposition of some restrictions in late 2020/early 2021. This does not detract from our broader argument that these economies display resilience in employment terms once controls are eased.

We are not looking for parallels with advanced economies because of a point we have often made in these columns: that they have fiscal and other resources on a scale of which emerging market governments can only dream. You can close down the economy and pay your employed citizens not to work through a furlough scheme in an advanced economy.

You can then reopen the economy and subsidize meals out for the family. In EMs your choices are far more limited. A core tool of the South African government, for example, is its social relief of distress grant, which is received by 35 per cent of all households.

Three other conclusions from the three waves of NIDS-CRAM are worth highlighting. First, the employment trends are consistent with monthly production data from Statistics South Africa, the local counterpart of the NBS. This is true of mining, manufacturing and retail but not, for obvious reasons, of tourism.

Second and tentatively, there has been an unusual increase in jobs in sales and services. Thirdly and again cautiously, earnings may have risen slightly between February and October.

If we attempt to read across to Nigeria, we do not have the data for the first two conclusions while the fourth instalment of COVID-19 impact monitoring noted that two thirds of households surveyed reported a fall in earnings.

Gregory Kronsten is Head, Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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US Okays $2.1Bn for Christian Healthcare in Nigeria

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The United States has signed a five-year agreement with Nigeria to strengthen its health system, with a strong emphasis on promoting Christian faith-based health care providers.

US Okays $2.1Bn for Christian Healthcare in Nigeria

The Department of State, in collaboration with Congress, will commit nearly $2.1 billion to expand essential preventative and curative services for HIV, TB, malaria, polio, and maternal and child health.

Under the bilateral agreement signed at the weekend, the Nigerian government will increase its domestic health expenditures by nearly $3 billion during the five-year term.

The Memorandum of Understanding is the largest co-investment any country has made to date under the America First Global Health Strategy, said Thomas Pigott, State Department spokesperson.

The MOU was negotiated within the context of Nigeria’s reforms to protect Christian populations from violence and includes significant dedicated funding to support Christian healthcare facilities.

The investments were approved to complement the efforts of Nigeria’s 900 faith-based clinics and hospitals, currently serving millions of people, and strengthen the country’s health infrastructure.

The U.S. government stressed that the President and Secretary of State retain the right to pause or terminate any programs which fails to align with the national interest.

“The Trump Administration expects Nigeria to continue to make progress ensuring that it combats extremist religious violence against vulnerable Christian populations,” Pigott added.

The MOU was signed despite the U.S. designation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern and its recent inclusion in the travel ban list, which President Donald Trump premised on terrorism and visa overstay rate.

The America First Global Health Strategy, released in September 2025, covers dozens of countries. It shifts the focus of U.S. health aid to self-reliance, data security, HIV, TB, malaria, and maternal and child health services.


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SERAP Asks Tinubu to Release CTC of Tax Bill

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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has urged President Bola Tinubu to “urgently direct Mr Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice to widely publish a certified true copy of the version of the tax bills received from the National Assembly and a certified true copy of the tax laws signed by you.”

SERAP Asks Tinubu to Release CTC of Tax Bill

SERAP

The documents requested by SERAP are the National Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act; and Nigeria Tax Act.

SERAP urged Tinubu “to direct Mr Lateef Fagbemi to clarify whether the version of the tax bills received from the National Assembly are exactly the same contents as the bills that were signed into law by you and the version ultimately gazetted.”

The body made the demand of President Tinubu in a Freedom of Information request dated December 20, 2025.

It was signed by its Deputy Director, Kolawole Oluwadare.

The organisation said in the FOI request: “The law-making processes including the passing of any bills and signing them into laws, as well as gazetting the laws must meet the requirements of the Nigerian Constitution, the rule of law and separation of powers.

“This means that any passed bills and signed laws must be accessible, authentic, intelligible, clear, legitimate, and predictable so that people can know and comply with them.

“Clarifying whether the version of the tax bills received from the National Assembly are exactly the same contents as the bills that were signed into laws by the President and tax laws ultimately gazetted would promote transparency and accountability, and help to address any threats to Nigerians’ human rights.

“We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within 7 days of the receipt and/or publication of this letter. If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall take all appropriate legal actions to compel your government and the Attorney General to comply with our request in the public interest.

“Widely publishing the certified true copies of the tax bills passed by the National Assembly and the tax laws signed by the President and the gazetted versions would also allow Nigerians to identify if the provisions of the laws are consistent with their human rights, and seek effective remedies to challenge any infractions of the rights.

“Your government has the obligations under the Nigerian Constitution and the human rights treaties to which the country is a state party to promptly, independently, impartially, transparently and effectively investigate the alleged unlawful allegations of the tax laws and to ensure full accountability in this case.

“Our requests are brought in the public interest, and in keeping with the requirements of the Nigerian Constitution, the Freedom of Information Act, and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights to Nigeria is a state party.

“According to our information, the National Assembly recently alleged that there are unlawful alterations and some material differences between the tax bills passed by the legislative body and the tax laws gazetted by the Federal Government.

“A Sokoto lawmaker, Abdussamad Dasuki, raised the issue under a matter of privilege, drawing the attention of the House to the alleged discrepancies between the harmonised versions of the tax bills passed by both chambers of the National Assembly and the copies gazetted by the Federal Government.

“The National Assembly said the alterations contained in the gazetted copies did not receive legislative approval. These alleged unlawful alterations raise questions over the legality and legitimacy of both the law-making processes and the versions of the tax laws currently being circulated by the Federal Ministry of Information.

“The National Assembly established that substantive provisions were inserted, deleted, or modified after passage by both chambers. Several oversight, accountability, and reporting mechanisms approved by parliament were reportedly removed in the final Acts. New coercive and fiscal powers (e.g., arrest powers, garnish without court order, compulsory USD computation, appeal security deposits) were also reportedly inserted in the final Acts without legislative approval.

“Section 39 of the Nigerian Constitution, article 9 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights guarantee the right to seek, receive and impart information.

“The Nigerian Constitution, the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights impose duties on your government to ensure transparency and accountability in lawmaking processes.

“By the combined reading of the provisions of the Nigerian Constitution, the Freedom of Information Act, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, there are transparency obligations imposed on your government to widely publish the certified true copies of the version of the tax bills received from the National Assembly and the tax laws signed by you.

“The Nigerian Constitution, Freedom of Information Act, and the human rights treaties rest on the principle that citizens should have access to information regarding their government’s activities.”


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NITDA Partners OGP to Drive Presidential Digital Goals

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The Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa, CCIE, has reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to open governance, transparency and inclusive digital development as the Open Government Partnership (OGP) team formally presented the award and certificate received at the OGP Global Summit Spain 2025 to the Agency’s leadership.

Nigeria emerged as the overall global winner in the Digital Governance category in recognition of the country’s excellence in deploying digital tools and policies to strengthen government transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement. In addition, Nigeria received the Regional Award for advancing Open Digital Governance across Africa and the Middle East, reaffirming its leadership role in promoting open government principles and driving digital transformation across the region.

These recognitions were largely attributed to initiatives led by NITDA in collaboration with civil society partners, such as Dataphyte, which showcased innovative and inclusive approaches to digital governance at the summit.

The summit, which was organised in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain, brought together more than 1,500 high-level representatives of governments, civil society leaders, and policymakers from around the world to exchange experiences, best practices, and progress on open government initiatives and implementation on key issues.

Receiving the OGP delegation at NITDA, Inuwa described the recognition as a national honour rather than an institutional one, stressing that the award reflects Nigeria’s collective efforts across government, civil society and the private sector in advancing open governance principles through the digital space.

According to him, such global recognition comes with heightened responsibility to deliver on commitments made under the OGP framework.

“This is not just about NITDA. It is a national recognition, and every recognition comes with responsibility,” the DG said.

“If we fail to execute the commitments we have made, it will not only affect our image locally but also at the international stage. This is also not something NITDA can do in isolation,” he added.

Inuwa linked the achievement directly to the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, noting that digital transformation, transparency, economic diversification, job creation and efficient public service delivery remain central presidential priority areas.

He emphasised that leveraging digital technologies to deepen openness and accountability aligns with national objectives of strengthening institutions, improving governance outcomes and building trust between government and citizens.

Highlighting the importance of collaboration, the NITDA boss underscored the role of the OGP platform as a catalyst for a strong multi-stakeholder approach in Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

He called on civil society organisations, development partners, the private sector and other government institutions to provide technical expertise, guidance and sustained engagement to ensure effective implementation of agreed commitments.

“We need to leverage the OGP platform. We need your expertise, your guidance, your support and your commitment to hand-hold us in delivering on these commitments,” he said.

He further noted that “a multi-stakeholder approach in the digital space is critical to fostering a resilient ecosystem that delivers real value to citizens.”

Inuwa disclosed that NITDA has already begun internal reviews of its OGP commitments and has tasked its representatives, including Dr Rousseau, to work with colleagues to develop a clear execution strategy.

He proposed the creation of joint work streams with OGP stakeholders to support implementation, ensure accountability and keep all parties on track.

“We are humans. Oversight and collaboration help us stay focused. With commitment, nothing is impossible, and I believe these goals are achievable,” he added, assuring the delegation of NITDA’s readiness and political will to deliver on all agreed commitments.

Inuwa also welcomed the idea of engaging the political leadership of OGP, including the Honourable Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, with a view to briefing President Tinubu on the achievement. He noted that celebrating milestones is important, as it reinforces morale and demonstrates that Nigeria’s efforts in digital governance are gaining global recognition.

“It’s also good when there are wins, we should celebrate, because we too never knew that the little things we are doing are noticed not just within Nigeria, but globally, to the extent of earning us this award,” he asserted.

He concluded by expressing gratitude to the Nigerian National OGP Secretariat and the global OGP leadership, reaffirming NITDA’s commitment to strengthening collaboration and building a more productive working relationship that will translate open governance principles into measurable national impact.

Earlier in his remark, Mr Olusoji Apampa, who led the OGP deelegation, said the honours were earned through a strong partnership between government and civil society, with NITDA playing a critical role, particularly in commitments focused on improving digital governance in Nigeria.

Apampa expressed hope that the awards would serve as added momentum to deepen ongoing commitments under NITDA’s leadership and accelerate the practical implementation of reforms aimed at strengthening digital governance across the country.


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