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Foreign Exchange Inflows still Below Pre-COVID Levels

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Tunde Abidoye

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Quarterly Statistical Bulletin for Quarter 4, 2020, total Foreign Exhange (FX) inflows into the Nigerian economy declined by -6.4% q/q (-42% y/y) to USD24.8bn.

Although aggregate inflows have increased since they bottomed out to a 3-year low at the height of the pandemic, they have not recovered to pre-COVID levels.

FX inflows through the CBN increased 17.1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) to USD8.2bn (or 33% of total inflows), thanks to a 48% q/q rise in non-oil receipts to USD6.8bn. A USD2.0bn category titled “others including FGN loans” underpinned the increase in non-oil receipts.

On a net basis, the CBN’s swap arrangements grew 117% q/q to USD792m. In contrast, oil receipts fell 44% q/q to USD1.3bn due to i) Nigeria’s adherence to its OPEC oil production quota, which resulted in a decline of 0.1 million barrels per day and, ii) a decrease in NNPC’s share of oil and gas exports.

Autonomous sources (other than the CBN) contributed c.USD16.6bn in forex inflows, or 67% of overall inflows. It was supported by a 10% increase in over the counter (OTC) purchases (under invisible transactions), which included capital imports, home remittances, and other OTC purchases which we reckon are mostly linked to bonds.

A further breakdown of OTC pruchases showed that, capital imports and home remittances shrunk by 25% q/q and 52% q/q respectively.

The drop in capital imports can be attributed to Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs’) waning appetite after a worsening of FX liquidity, induced by a sell-off in oil prices as the pandemic worsened. Remittances also suffered a blow from the weak economic growth and employment levels in migrant-hosting countries.

Drawing from a different data series, we note that workers remittances in the balance of payments accounts which provides a more holistic view of remittances also slumped by c.31% q/q to c.USD4bn in Q4 ’20 and c.28% y/y to USD17bn in FY ’20.

In an effort to boost remittances, the CBN in December 2020 directed that beneficiaries could take their remittances from licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) in US dollars. It also increased the number of authorized IMTOs.

In March 2021, the bank followed this up by launching its “Naira 4 dollar scheme”. Under the scheme, diaspora remittance recipients are rewarded with an extra NGN5 for every dollar wired through official routes.

FX outflows through the economy increased by 24.1% q/q to USD9.2bn. About 97% of total outflows were routed through the CBN.

The strong increase in forex outflows reflects a rise in CBN FX interventions at multiple intervention windows, notably the restart of FX sales to bureaux de change operators and at the investors and exporters (I&E) window in August ’20 after a five-month hiatus.

Despite the increase in outflows during the quarter, FX outflows remain below pre-pandemic levels, due largely to the CBN’s import compression strategies.

FBNQuest Researchs’ conversations with FPIs and domestic investors indicate that greater FX liberalisation (including further adjustments to the FX rate) and the loosening of FX controls such as the CBN’s 42-item FX restriction list are prerequisites to open the tap of portfolio flows.

Tunde Abidoye is Head, Equity Research, FBNQuest


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E-Financial

Africa Prudential Launches Sabivest to Boost Digital Investment Access

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Africa Prudential Plc has launched Sabivest, a digital shareholder and investment management application, as part of efforts to deepen access to investment opportunities and enhance transparency in Nigeria’s capital market.

Unveiled in Lagos, the platform is designed to provide investors with a centralised system for managing shareholdings and tracking portfolio performance across multiple investment products.

At the launch, the Chairperson of Africa Prudential Plc, Christabel Onyejekwe, said the initiative reflects the company’s commitment to leveraging innovation to improve investor experience and participation.

“Sabivest provides a unified ecosystem that enables individuals and institutions to seamlessly access, monitor and grow diversified financial assets through a single interface,” she said, describing the platform as a significant step in advancing digital transformation within the capital market.

The Managing Director, Catherine Nwosu, noted that the application, which is available for download on both iOS and Android platforms, was developed to address structural challenges that have continued to limit investor efficiency, including fragmented investment accounts, restricted access to diverse financial instruments, and inadequate visibility into portfolio performance.

According to her, the platform aggregates multiple investment services, offering users real-time insights and control through a centralised dashboard.

She added that Sabivest features consolidated portfolio views, performance tracking, asset allocation insights, and electronic dividend management, alongside tools for monitoring, documenting, and recovering unclaimed dividends.

The launch also featured a roundtable session themed, “Building Trust and Driving Innovation in Nigeria’s Capital Market,” where stakeholders emphasised the importance of technology-driven solutions in strengthening investor confidence and expanding market participation.


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Transcorp Excites Shareholders with ₦20.3 Billion Dividend @20th AGM

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Transnational Corporation Plc (“Transcorp Group” or the “Company”) (NGX: TRANSCORP), Africa’s leading listed conglomerate with strategic investments in power, hospitality and energy, has declared a total dividend of ₦20,323,995,148, representing ₦2.00 per share to its shareholders, at its 20th Annual General Meeting (AGM), held at the new state-of-the-art Transcorp Centre Abuja.

Group Chairman, Mr Tony O. Elumelu, CFR; President/Group CEO,, Mrs. Owen D. Omogiafo, OON; and Company Secretary, Ms. Atinuke Kolade, during the 20th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Transnational Corporation Plc( Transcorp Group) held in Abuja at the weekend

The total dividend comprises an interim dividend payment of ₦4,064,799.030, representing 40 kobo per share, paid in August 2025, together with a final dividend of ₦16,259,196,118, equivalent to ₦1.60 per share.

At the AGM, where the shareholders approved the Audited Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, the Group Chairman of Transcorp Plc, Mr Tony O. Elumelu, CFR, restated the company’s commitment to delivering sustainable long-term value creation as shareholders commended the conglomerate and its management for sustained performance.

In 2025, the Group, with a combined market capitalisation of ₦4.78 trillion ($3.52 billion) as of May 7, 2026, recorded strong year-on-year growth across all key metrics. Revenue increased by 33% to ₦544 billion (FY 2024: ₦408 billion). Profit Before Tax rose 31% to ₦179.5 billion (FY 2024: ₦136.7 billion), while Profit After Tax surged 44% to ₦135.9 billion (FY 2024: ₦94.1 billion)

Group Chairman, Mr Tony O. Elumelu, CFR; President/Group CEO,, Mrs. Owen D. Omogiafo, OON; and Company Secretary, Ms. Atinuke Kolade, during the 20th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Transnational Corporation Plc( Transcorp Group) held in Abuja at the weekend

Mr. Tony O. Elumelu, CFR, Group Chairman, Transnational Corporation Plc said: “Transcorp Group remains firmly focused on strong corporate governance and the disciplined execution of its strategic priorities to deliver sustainable, long-term value. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the Group continues to benefit from its diversified portfolio, which has underpinned resilient financial performance in 2025.

Mrs. Owen D. Omogiafo, OON, President/Group CEO, Transnational Corporation Plc said: “FY 2025 was a year defined by disciplined execution, strategic resolve, and resilient performance. Transcorp Group is committed to resolving the energy crisis in Nigeria; we have an energy situation, and the gap between the demand and supply is still very wide. Hence, we will continue to work assiduously and tirelessly towards bridging that gap, creating value for the wider country.

In our hospitality business, the 5,000-seat capacity Transcorp Centre hosting us today is a testament to our disciplined execution, and you will see more in the coming years.

While commenting on the performance, one of the shareholders, Mrs E. O. Obideyi, commended the management of Transcorp Group, saying, “I commend the management and staff of Transcorp for sustained performance year-on-year. While we appreciate the Board, I am also extending my commendation to the members of staff of Transcorp for a job well done.”

Another Shareholder, Mr Moses Igrude, commended the Board, Management and Staff of Transcorp Plc. He said: “I appreciate the vision behind Transcorp and what it has become. When I look at the history, and how far it has come under Mr Tony Elumelu’s leadership, I am proud that the aim and objectives are being achieved. That payoff line, ‘Improving lives and transforming Africa,’ is a reality we are witnessing.

Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp Group) is one of Africa’s leading listed conglomerates, with strategic investments in power, hospitality and energy, driven by its mission to improve lives and transform Africa.

The Group’s power businesses — Transcorp Power Plc and Transafam Power — provide over 20% of Nigeria’s installed power capacity. Transcorp is also advancing Nigeria’s domestic energy value chain through its investment in OPL281. Its hospitality subsidiary, Transcorp Hotels Plc, owns the iconic Transcorp Hilton Abuja and the landmark Transcorp Centre Abuja.


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IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly increasing the danger of cyberattacks on the global financial system.

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

Pic credit… saturnpartners

According to a blog post from the IMF, these AI-driven threats could turn isolated security breaches into severe economic disruptions, potentially freezing payments, shaking markets, and undermining public trust in banks worldwide.

In its analysis, the fund highlighted a specific example involving the controlled release of an advanced AI model called Claude Mythos Preview by Anthropic.

The IMF noted that this model demonstrated the ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in all major operating systems and web browsers, even when used by individuals without specialized expertise.

The IMF cautioned that AI could heighten risk concentration within the financial system.

A single exploited vulnerability might cascade across numerous institutions simultaneously due to heavy reliance on a limited number of cloud providers, software platforms, and AI models.

Such events could escalate from operational issues to macro-financial shocks, triggering confidence crises, liquidity problems, and fire-sale dynamics in markets. The organization also acknowledged that AI forms part of the solution.

As attackers operate at machine speed, financial institutions are deploying their own AI-assisted tools for threat detection, fraud prevention, and faster incident response.

The IMF highlighted a geopolitical dimension to the threat, noting that cyber risk crosses national borders and that inconsistent oversight among countries could weaken the globally interconnected financial system.

Emerging economies, often with limited resources, may face disproportionate exposure.

The fund urged policymakers to treat cybersecurity as a core financial stability concern rather than a technical or operational matter.

It called for prioritization of resilience standards, systemic supervision, and international coordination to contain breaches before they spread.


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