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Africa’s Telecom Revenue to Hi $59Bn in 5 Years

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Eugene Juwah, EVC, NCC
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Sub-Saharan Africa’s retail telecoms revenue will grow at a faster rate than any other region in the world over the next 5 years (6.4% CAGR over 2012–2018), but operators in the region must still look to develop new digital economy revenue streams to supplement core services.

Analysys Mason’s most-recent Sub-Saharan Africa forecasts showed the region’s telecoms market will grow faster than any other region worldwide over the next 5 years

Telecoms retail revenue reached $41 billion in 2012, and will rise to $59 billion in 2018, growing from 3% of worldwide total revenue in 2012, to 4% in 2018.

According to Analysys Mason, handset data services, mobile broadband and fixed broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa through 2018, and will help offset stagnating messaging services and declining fixed voice revenue.

 The M2M market will also grow rapidly, but will represent only a small share of total revenue.

By 2018, mobile networks will account for more than 98% of voice connections and 80% of broadband connections in the region. The number of mobile broadband connections will reach 29.3 million by 2018

Mobile voice revenue growth (at a CAGR of 6.3%) will be a key driver, and is by far the largest service line in terms of revenue, reaching $39 billion annually by 2018.

Analysys Mason said that revenue growth from mobile messaging will slow to a CAGR of 1.8%, versus 14.4% annual growth during 2009–2012, while mobile broadband (mid-screen and large-screen) revenue will grow at 14.6% per year.

Mobile handset data revenue will grow faster than mid- and large-screen mobile broadband, but will still only be about one fifth of the size of mobile voice revenue in the region by 2018.

Smartphones will account for 80% of active broadband connections and 22% of handsets in the region overall, by 2018. In general, the take-up of smartphones in the region is progressing more quickly than we were forecasting earlier this year, driven by the availability of affordable handsets and consumer appetite for smartphones, which has been boosted by data services.

3G will reach 152 million active SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2018, accounting for slightly less than 20% of non-M2M SIMs.

3G take-up is clearly driven in part by fixed broadband substitution, but will also be driven by operators’ efforts to expand 3G coverage and capacity, and increasing availability of less-expensive data tariffs and affordable, data-enabled devices.

4G is still a long-term play in Sub-Saharan Africa, and is constrained by spectrum availability issues, coverage, device affordability and licensing delays.

Operators in the region that have launched LTE services include Cell C, Neotel, Orange Uganda, Telkom Mobile and Vodacom in South Africa. 4G will account for only 1.52% of the 774 million active mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2018.

Despite strong interest in high-speed mobile broadband services, the 2G base in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to increase throughout the forecast period, and will still account for the majority of SIMs (78%) in 2018. 3G and 4G will be limited to urban areas because rural populations are more price-sensitive and will continue to use basic phones.

This, as well as the high proportion of prepaid mobile users in South Africa (at 95%), must be taken into account by companies looking to develop new revenue streams from digital economy and over-the-top services.

As in other regions, operators in Sub-Saharan Africa are looking to bolster core service revenue through offering and enabling B2B and B2C digital economy services for their subscribers.

Key M2M verticals in Sub-Saharan Africa will be retail, banking and fleet management, as well as applications with socioeconomic benefits, such as m-health. M2M connections will grow from 2.8 million in 2012 to 28.9 million by the end of 2018, at a CAGR of 45%. M2M services will account for 2.9% of all mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2018. However, revenue per connection is low – M2M revenue will represent less than 1% of mobile retail revenue.

Nigeria and South Africa will be the main M2M markets in the region. In South Africa, in particular, plans to roll out smart meters during the next 5 years will drive the market.

In other markets, Safaricom in Kenya has developed a mobile solution to make clean energy more accessible and affordable to rural areas, and Orange Uganda launched an M2M offering in late 2012 for fleet management, and remote monitoring and surveillance.

Over-the-top services are gaining traction in Africa as smartphone usage grows, but willingness to pay is limited, and enabling payment is also an ongoing challenge.

Mobile money continues to be an area of intense interest for the region, and for service providers, given the size of the opportunity among the unbanked.

Analysys Mason said that the success of M-Pesa has spawned a plethora of smaller mobile money and payments services, usually local, which have achieved varying levels of success, as well as larger-scale, operator-led initiatives, such as Tigo Cash.

“Operators are also turning their attention to monetising customer relationships through cross-selling non-telecoms financial products, such as insurance (for example, airtel’s and MTN’s recent airtime-paid insurance offerings in Nigeria). We expect many more examples of this type of innovation to emerge as operators look to supplement core services growth in the African market” Analysys Mason  stated


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NCC, CBN Unveil Refund Framework for Failed Airtime, Data Transactions

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Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have finalized a consumer protection framework to swiftly resolve complaints from failed airtime and data purchases caused by network outages, system errors, or user mistakes.

NCC, CBN Unveil Refund Framework for Failed Airtime, Data Transactions

NCC, CBN

Developed after months of consultations with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), Value Added Service (VAS) providers, Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), and other stakeholders, the framework responds to surging reports of debits without service delivery and prolonged resolution delays.

It unites telecom and financial sectors by pinpointing root causes—like debits without service credits—and enforces a Service Level Agreement (SLA) defining roles for all parties in transactions and refunds.

Key provisions include refunds within 30 seconds for debited but undelivered airtime or data (extendable to 24 hours for pending cases), mandatory SMS notifications on transaction status, and remedies for errors such as recharges to ported numbers, wrong purchases, or misdirected transactions.

NCC Consumer Affairs Director, Mrs. Freda Bruce-Bennett, highlighted a new Central Monitoring Dashboard, co-hosted by NCC and CBN, for real-time tracking of failures, culprits, refunds, and SLA violations.

“Failed top-ups are among the top three consumer complaints. True to our mandate, we prioritized a rapid solution,” she stated.

Bruce-Bennett thanked stakeholders, especially CBN leadership, noting that MNOs and banks have already refunded over N10 billion pending formal approval.

Implementation begins March 1, 2026, following regulator approvals and technical integrations by MNOs, VAS providers, and DMBs.


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NASENI Launches Inter-Agency Innovation Competition for MDAs

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National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) has announced the launch of an Inter-Agency Innovation Competition and Awards to stimulate creativity and technological advancement among Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of the Federal Government.

NASENI Launches Inter-Agency Innovation Competition for MDAs

NASENI

In a statement issued on Wednesday in Abuja, NASENI said the initiative was designed to harness innovative ideas from public servants that can drive indigenous industrialization, job creation and national progress.

According to the agency, the competition will provide a platform for MDAs to propose solutions in critical sectors such as health, agriculture, education and infrastructure, leveraging science and technology to improve public service delivery and enhance the quality of life for Nigerians.

“The competition seeks to promote collaboration and creativity among MDAs while addressing pressing national challenges through innovation,” the statement said.

NASENI urged interested MDAs to submit their entries through its innovation portal at naseni.gov.ng/innovation.

The agency reiterated its statutory mission “to develop and maintain a dynamic infrastructure to drive Nigeria’s indigenous industrialization, job creation and national progress,” adding that the competition would further strengthen efforts to unlock the nation’s potential through science and technology.


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Mandatory Biometric Verification for Starlink Users in Nigeria Begins

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Users of satellite internet service provider Starlink in Nigeria are being required to complete a biometric Know Your Customer (KYC) process as a precondition to continue enjoying their services, according to .biometricupdate.

Mandatory Biometric Verification for Starlink Users in Nigeria Begins

According to local reports, more than 66,000 Starlink subscribers in the country had a December 31 ultimatum from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to complete the biometric verification or have their connection discontinued.

The process essentially entails linking a Starlkink account with the subscriber’s national digital ID.

The NCC, which is Nigeria’s telecoms industry regulator, is said to have first issued the directive in August last year, setting a three-month deadline which was to elapse on November 19, TechCabal reports.

The body however later extended it to December 31 after consultations with industry stakeholders. The internet account-NIN linkage, the NCC said, is to enhance identity verification and strengthen security within the country’s telecoms space.

Just a few days to the December 31 deadline, Starlink’s Nigeria office sent an email to its subscribers reminding them of the KYC requirement, and warned that all those who fail to comply would be disconnected.

And that once disconnected, reconnection would depend on network capacity in the concerned area.

The service provider said in its email that the process takes less than two minutes and users can complete it by logging in to their account via an app.

One user, quoted by TechCabal, said one needs to upload their selfie biometrics, provide their national identification number (NIN) and then give their consent for the account to be linked to their ID information.

Starlink’s internet service is present in about 155 countries with nine million users, as of 2025. Its growth in Nigeria is said to be rapid, making it the second largest internet service provider in the country, according to The Traffic.

Biometric identification for Starlink subscribers could become a continent-wide trend given that some countries have expressed reservations in opening up their internet space to the company over security concerns.

There’ve been fears that jihadists in countries like Mali and Nigeria may have exploited Starlink terminals to coordinate terror operations, and cybersecurity experts have also warned of risks related to weak regulation, digital sovereignty and data breaches.

The requirement for Starlink internet users to have their accounts linked with the NIN is similar to the SIM-NIN linkage policy which the Nigerian government battled to implement for many years, with many deadline extensions.

In October last year, the NCC, which is was at the forefront of the policy implementation, announced that all active SIM cards across all network providers had complied with the directive which was issued in 2020.

The idea, the federal government argued, was to strengthen security and curb criminality such as kidnappings which are aided and abetted by improperly identified mobile phone numbers.


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