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AfDB Worries over Nigeria’s $67.7Bn Debt

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African Development Bank (AfDB), has released its African Economic Outlook 2015, and cautioned against Nigeria’s rising public debt profile which it put at $67.7 billion as at December 2014.

AfDB’s figure is higher than the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President-elect recent estimate of $63 billion.

The AfDB said total public debt level, which represents a five per cent increase from end-2013, was driven largely by the 10 per cent rise in the domestic debts of the federal and state governments.

The rising domestic debt emanated from the challenging fiscal position resulting from dwindling oil revenues coupled with need to implement several reform initiatives at both national and sub-national levels of government.

The report, written by Barbara Barungi (Lead Economist) and Eric Ogunleye (macroeconomist consultant), both of the group’s Nigeria Country Office, warned that an unchecked rise in public debt, especially domestic debt, could have negative effects on the economy.

“Increased domestic public debt has a tendency to raise interest rates, resulting in crowding out of the private sector from the local credit market. Anecdotal evidence suggests that increased public domestic debt is the major driver of the high lending rate in the country coupled with high monetary policy rate. Federal Government bonds and Nigerian treasury bills are the dominant instruments in the country’s domestic debt, accounting for over 95 percent of total domestic debt stock”, the report noted.

Despite the rising trend in public debt, the report, however, said the solvency and liquidity indicators show that the country remains at a low risk of debt distress, given a low debt-to-GDP ratio of about 12.5 per cent with external debt as low as 1.7 percent of GDP and mostly through international financial institutions’ concessional windows.

“A few risks persist, however, that tend to make the outlook and prospects of the Nigerian debt profile somewhat worrisome. One of these is the rising trend in sub-national debt. Failure to check this may undermine the effectiveness of the debt-management strategy being pursued. It is hoped that efforts of the DMO to reconstruct the debt at the sub-national levels and establish debt-management departments in each state will improve the situation. It is hoped that the robust debt management framework of the DMO will guide borrowing and the mode of financing any actual increased spending. However, a strong political will to stay the course of public financial management reform and the implementation of a genuine debt-management strategy are critical for success,” it added.

However, the AfDB report said the nation’s economy has enjoyed sustained economic growth for a decade, with annual real GDP increasing by around seven percent;  from 6.3 percent in 2014. The non-oil sector has been the main driver of growth, with services contributing about 57 percent, while manufacturing and agriculture, respectively contributed about nine per cent and 21 per cent.

The economy is thus diversifying and is becoming more services-oriented, in particular through retail and wholesale trade, real estate, information and communication.

The 2015 outlook projected a moderate growth of five percent, due to vulnerability to slow global economic recovery, oil-price volatility and global financial developments. The low oil price, it said, would lead to a sharp decline in fiscal revenues, but that the overall impact on non-oil sector GDP would be relatively muted.

“The sector is, thus, expected to remain the main driver of growth over the medium term and, in the light of the recent macroeconomic challenges, the government has adopted an adjustment strategy that hinges on tightening government spending and shoring up non-oil revenues to compensate for dwindling oil revenues.”

The analysts called on government to address security issues facing the country, especially insurgency in the northeast and other parts of the country which they said has negative implications for investment.

“Insurgency also may hamper the fight against poverty as well as increase crime. An increased number of both internally displaced persons and refugees in neighbouring Cameroon and Niger have created a grave humanitarian situation. However, the current regional coalition force against Boko Haram appears to be making headway in subduing the insurgency.

They added that overcoming geographical and socio-economic barriers is central to achieving inclusive growth and sustainable development, while addressing rural-urban differences to ensure more balanced development through job creation and societal transformation will be critical for Nigeria’s future.

“This will need to be done within all the six geopolitical zones, in addition to addressing inequalities across these zones. Though there have been several policy initiatives aimed at territorial development in Nigeria, limited success has been achieved in addressing the fundamental causes of unevenness. The problem often lies with a structure of governance that gives room for developmental policy implementation at the federal, state and local levels of governance but not at the regional level”.


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Defending the foundations for connectivity

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By Engr. Gbenga Adebayo

In 2001, when the first GSM call was made in Nigeria how many of us would have envisaged the digital world that we live in today? The pace of growth and the rate of adoption of telecoms solutions in Nigeria has been revolutionary. It is a globally acknowledged case study that we should be proud of and a clear demonstration of what can be achieved.

Almost all of us today are reliant on the network connectivity that it has enabled in different shapes and forms. From the simple need to communicate with loved ones, to the digital platforms that enable our access to and consumption of entertainment, financial products and other critical services. Our reliance on these systems is becoming more and more acute, whether it is citizens, governments, or corporations. System downtime is increasingly disruptive and offline manual redundancies are often in the advanced stages of being phased out. The pace of this transition is not slowing down. With the core infrastructure in place, innovation is driving the exponential growth of services that ride on it. From the fully adopted social media that has changed the way we interact, to the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.

While this innovation is enabling exciting new possibilities, there is a tendency to focus on those opportunities, to the detriment of the core infrastructure on which it rides. It is imperative that we retain a focus on the optimisation of that infrastructure and enable continued investment in its development. We have seen how the transition from 2G, through to 3G, 4G and 5G have each enabled the development of more and more sophisticated solutions.

The continued development of core infrastructure has to be sustainable, and over the last few months we have begun to see the challenges that the operators that provide it are facing. Both MTN and Airtel have declared significant foreign exchange (FX) losses in Nigeria, and the stress is not linked to them alone. The entire ecosystem is battling with a range of challenges that must be addressed. If we fail to do so, the downstream impact on innovation will be severe. Telecoms infrastructure requires a base level of investment to maintain its current capabilities, and significant additional investment to expand and grow. It is capital intensive and that capital has to be generated through sustainable business models.

At the heart of the challenge the industry faces is the issue of rising costs. Recent financial losses are directly linked to the cost of operating towers that rely on inputs like diesel, which have increased significantly as the Naira has depreciated. The provisions large telecom companies have had to make, and the consequent losses and impact on their reserves is a red flag. It tells us that business as usual is not sustainable. If we continue as we are, then those companies will struggle to continue to invest in and maintain existing services.

But those costs are not the only challenge. General cost inflation, multiple taxation, regular and damaging vandalisation of infrastructure and the costs associated with regulatory compliance all help contribute to the high cost of operations. We cannot continue to follow a path that asks those companies to simply accept those rising costs. It is no longer sustainable, and we have reached an inflection point.

This is a critical moment for the industry. How we approach and resolve it will define the future of Nigeria’s digital economy. If you want to be able to enjoy the benefits that digitisation brings. If we want the infrastructure that enables AI and helps us drive growth, then we must take action now.

Cost-reflective tariffs, like it or not, are simply non-negotiable. We have seen the impact of price controls in other segments of the economy, like power. If providers cannot operate sustainable business models, then they stop investing. When that happens, the existing infrastructure starts to crumble. For power, a consumer can choose to take ownership of the solution by buying a generator, or a solar panel. For fuel, the government can step in as the provider of last resort and manage a subsidy regime that mitigates the impact on the population. Those options are not available in the telecoms sector. There is no self-help solution.

We fully understand and appreciate the financial stress that Nigerians are experiencing today. The cost of living is the single most significant factor in most people’s daily lives. But those people are still able to enjoy the benefits that connectivity brings, at the price they paid before these challenges became so acute. Imagine a future in which the gains of the last twenty years are reversed. Nigeria, and Nigerians simply cannot afford it. The pain that we would feel under those circumstances would be exponentially worse.

We need to find a long-term, sustainable and manageable solution to this problem. Prices will need to rise, but action needs to be taken in a measured way, through sustainable conversations and partnership with the government. It is time to address this head on.

Engr. Gbenga Adebayo is the Chairman, Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON)


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.NG Domain is Nigeria’s Pride Online – Akinsanya

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The .ng domain name, Nigeria’s country code top-level domain (ccTLD), is the nation’s critical resource in the digital space, says Adesola Akinsanya, the president of the Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA).

Akintola Owolabi, Professor of Cost and Management Accounting at Lagos Business School (front – third from left; Adesola Akinsanya, the president of the Nigeria Internet Registration Association (NiRA) (Front – fourth from right), flanked by members of EBOD and Management Team of NiRA during a training programme at LBS.

The .ng domain extension is unique to Nigeria, and it can give businesses a strong local identity.

This can help establish trust with customers, which is especially important for businesses that rely on local customers.

Mr. Akinsanya made the comments at NiRA Executive Board of Directors (EBOD) and Management Training held at the Lagos Business School (LBS).

The NiRA Executive Board and Management Training at LBS spanned a series of intensive interactive sessions designed to address critical challenges and opportunities in the digital domain.

The training program emphasized the importance of strategic vision, ethical decision-making, and resilience in the face of digital disruptions.

Participants gained insights into global best practices in digital governance, risk management, and leveraging digital technologies for business growth and societal impact.

Mr. Akinsanya, highlighted the significance of the collaboration with LBS, stating, “The NiRA EBOD/Management Training at LBS underscores our commitment to fostering a robust digital ecosystem in Nigeria. It equips leaders with the expertise to address complex digital challenges especially in accounting and financial management while harnessing the immense opportunities of the digital age.”

The program featured distinguished speakers, industry practitioners, and faculty members from LBS, providing a holistic learning experience enriched with real-world case studies and practical insights.

Participants commended the program for its relevance, depth of content, and interactive learning approach, noting its immediate applicability to their roles and responsibilities.

The NiRA EBOD Training at LBS represents a milestone in advancing digital leadership and governance in Nigeria.

“By equipping leaders with cutting-edge knowledge and strategic insights, the program contributes to building a resilient and innovative digital ecosystem that drives sustainable growth and societal development, especially from NiRA perspective. We must fashion out ways of increasing .NG domain name adoption which is our national pride in the digital space”.

Speaking further on why Nigerians and businesses should adopt the .NG domain name, the NiRA president said, “.NG domain name gives your brand special recognition both on and offline.

“Using a .ng domain name can help your business stand out in the Nigerian and global market. It is a great way to differentiate your brand from competitors and establish a unique identity. A .ng domain name is easier to remember, which can make it more likely that customers will return to your website in the future”, he said.

“It instantly communicates to internet users that your business is located in Nigeria. This can be especially helpful if you operate in a niche or industry where location is important to customers”, the NiRA boss added.

He added that Google and other search engines prioritize local content in search results, hence using a .ng domain name can help improve your website’s search engine ranking for local searches.


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Climate Action Africa Opens Applications for CAAF24 Deal Room

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Climate Action Africa (CAA), a leading advocate for climate resilience and sustainable development, has announced the opening of applications for the Deal Room at the 2024 Climate Action Africa Forum (CAAF24). The Deal Room is a groundbreaking platform that aims to connect high-impact climate innovators in Africa with potential investors seeking to accelerate sustainable solutions.

The CAAF Deal Room is a strategic initiative that aims to create opportunities for innovators in the climate-tech domain focusing on emission reduction, energy, agriculture, transportation, circular economy, and building and construction.

The goal of the Deal Room is to select finalists who will have the opportunity to pitch their innovative ideas and solutions at the upcoming 2024 Climate Action Africa Forum, which will be held on June 19th in Lagos, Nigeria.

The Deal Room aims to boost investments in Africa’s green economy by galvanising a community of innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors to create applicable solutions that can mitigate the challenges of climate change on the African continent.

The Deal Room session will facilitate financing for solutions contributing to the growth and sustainability of Africa’s green economy. These deals may encompass prize money, equity plans, debt financing, mergers and acquisitions, and other investment options.

“Through the CAAF24 Deal Room, we aim to bridge the critical gap between promising climate ventures and the essential resources they need to thrive,” says Grace Oluchi Mbah, Co-founder and Executive Director of Climate Action Africa (CAA). “By facilitating connections between passionate entrepreneurs and dedicated investors, we can collectively unlock the immense potential of climate solutions in Africa.”

The eligibility criteria for applying include:

●     The company must be African-owned and operate in any of the 54 African countries.

●     It must be a for-profit company, between 1-5 years post-incorporation, post-MVP (minimum viable product), and post-GTM (go-to-market).

●     The company should leverage digital technology to deliver its business model.

●     Female ownership is an added advantage.

 Those eligible to apply include venture capitalists, impact investors, climate tech startups, Green SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), philanthropic organisations, and government representatives.

Following the CAAF24 deal-room will be a post-event accelerator in partnership with the Silicon Valley-based Founder Institute and IDEA Africa. This Africa-wide initiative is specifically designed to further accelerate and enhance support for promising Climate Tech startups and founders who participated in the Deal Room.

The official unveiling of this accelerator will take place at the Climate Action Africa Forum 2024 (CAAF24), marking a significant step forward in driving Climate Tech innovations throughout Africa.

Applications for the CAAF24 Deal Room are open from April 22nd until May 17th. Interested applicants can register at https://deal.caaf.africa/register.


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