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Africa’s Telecom Revenue to Hi $59Bn in 5 Years

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Eugene Juwah, EVC, NCC
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Sub-Saharan Africa’s retail telecoms revenue will grow at a faster rate than any other region in the world over the next 5 years (6.4% CAGR over 2012–2018), but operators in the region must still look to develop new digital economy revenue streams to supplement core services.

Analysys Mason’s most-recent Sub-Saharan Africa forecasts showed the region’s telecoms market will grow faster than any other region worldwide over the next 5 years

Telecoms retail revenue reached $41 billion in 2012, and will rise to $59 billion in 2018, growing from 3% of worldwide total revenue in 2012, to 4% in 2018.

According to Analysys Mason, handset data services, mobile broadband and fixed broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa through 2018, and will help offset stagnating messaging services and declining fixed voice revenue.

 The M2M market will also grow rapidly, but will represent only a small share of total revenue.

By 2018, mobile networks will account for more than 98% of voice connections and 80% of broadband connections in the region. The number of mobile broadband connections will reach 29.3 million by 2018

Mobile voice revenue growth (at a CAGR of 6.3%) will be a key driver, and is by far the largest service line in terms of revenue, reaching $39 billion annually by 2018.

Analysys Mason said that revenue growth from mobile messaging will slow to a CAGR of 1.8%, versus 14.4% annual growth during 2009–2012, while mobile broadband (mid-screen and large-screen) revenue will grow at 14.6% per year.

Mobile handset data revenue will grow faster than mid- and large-screen mobile broadband, but will still only be about one fifth of the size of mobile voice revenue in the region by 2018.

Smartphones will account for 80% of active broadband connections and 22% of handsets in the region overall, by 2018. In general, the take-up of smartphones in the region is progressing more quickly than we were forecasting earlier this year, driven by the availability of affordable handsets and consumer appetite for smartphones, which has been boosted by data services.

3G will reach 152 million active SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2018, accounting for slightly less than 20% of non-M2M SIMs.

3G take-up is clearly driven in part by fixed broadband substitution, but will also be driven by operators’ efforts to expand 3G coverage and capacity, and increasing availability of less-expensive data tariffs and affordable, data-enabled devices.

4G is still a long-term play in Sub-Saharan Africa, and is constrained by spectrum availability issues, coverage, device affordability and licensing delays.

Operators in the region that have launched LTE services include Cell C, Neotel, Orange Uganda, Telkom Mobile and Vodacom in South Africa. 4G will account for only 1.52% of the 774 million active mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2018.

Despite strong interest in high-speed mobile broadband services, the 2G base in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to increase throughout the forecast period, and will still account for the majority of SIMs (78%) in 2018. 3G and 4G will be limited to urban areas because rural populations are more price-sensitive and will continue to use basic phones.

This, as well as the high proportion of prepaid mobile users in South Africa (at 95%), must be taken into account by companies looking to develop new revenue streams from digital economy and over-the-top services.

As in other regions, operators in Sub-Saharan Africa are looking to bolster core service revenue through offering and enabling B2B and B2C digital economy services for their subscribers.

Key M2M verticals in Sub-Saharan Africa will be retail, banking and fleet management, as well as applications with socioeconomic benefits, such as m-health. M2M connections will grow from 2.8 million in 2012 to 28.9 million by the end of 2018, at a CAGR of 45%. M2M services will account for 2.9% of all mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2018. However, revenue per connection is low – M2M revenue will represent less than 1% of mobile retail revenue.

Nigeria and South Africa will be the main M2M markets in the region. In South Africa, in particular, plans to roll out smart meters during the next 5 years will drive the market.

In other markets, Safaricom in Kenya has developed a mobile solution to make clean energy more accessible and affordable to rural areas, and Orange Uganda launched an M2M offering in late 2012 for fleet management, and remote monitoring and surveillance.

Over-the-top services are gaining traction in Africa as smartphone usage grows, but willingness to pay is limited, and enabling payment is also an ongoing challenge.

Mobile money continues to be an area of intense interest for the region, and for service providers, given the size of the opportunity among the unbanked.

Analysys Mason said that the success of M-Pesa has spawned a plethora of smaller mobile money and payments services, usually local, which have achieved varying levels of success, as well as larger-scale, operator-led initiatives, such as Tigo Cash.

“Operators are also turning their attention to monetising customer relationships through cross-selling non-telecoms financial products, such as insurance (for example, airtel’s and MTN’s recent airtime-paid insurance offerings in Nigeria). We expect many more examples of this type of innovation to emerge as operators look to supplement core services growth in the African market” Analysys Mason  stated


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PwC Warns Nigeria Telcos of AI Fraud Risks

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Telecom companies should invest in sophisticated anti-fraud tools that employ machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance detection and response times while conducting regular audits to ensure that systems remain up-to date and effective.

PwC Warns Nigeria Telcos of AI Fraud Risks

That’s according to Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC’s) latest paper on AI fraud in the Telecom sector.

The paper notes the dual role of Artificial Intelligence as both a threat and a shield highlights the need for Nigerian telecom operators to adopt AI deliberately and strategically.

It calls for a deeper understanding of how technological disruption is transforming fraud risks today and how those risks may evolve in the.

The professional services firm noted that the rapid adoption of AI is reshaping the fraud landscape in the telecommunications sector, enabling criminals to automate scams, impersonate victims through deepfake technologies, and scale fraudulent schemes with unprecedented speed.

The 16-page report, titled ‘AI’s Dual Role in Telecom Fraud’, noted that while AI is helping fraudsters launch more sophisticated attacks, the same technology can also serve as a powerful defensive tool for telecom operators and financial institutions.

“AI has tremendous potential to drive positive change across sectors, but it also enables fraudsters to create and disseminate scams quickly and at scale,” PwC said, warning that the expanding digital ecosystem linking telecom networks and financial services is creating new vulnerabilities.

Fraud has long posed a significant challenge for telecom operators worldwide, resulting in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory scrutiny.

Globally, telecom fraud was estimated at approximately $38.95 bn in 2023, highlighting the scale of the problem. In Nigeria, the sector has also faced rising risks.

According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), citizens lost approximately N12.5 bn to telecom-related financial crimes between 2019 and January 2023.

PwC said the growing integration between telecom networks and financial services, such as mobile money platforms and digital banking, is further complicating the fraud landscape.

“When fraud occurs across interconnected platforms, both telecommunications and financial services providers face regulatory scrutiny and erosion of customer trust,” the report said.

The firm added that telecom operators are increasingly becoming critical infrastructure for digital financial services, exposing them to greater risk as criminals target the ecosystem.

Despite these risks, PwC said telecom companies have a unique advantage in the fight against fraud due to the vast amount of network and customer data they possess.

By deploying advanced AI systems, telcos can detect suspicious activity patterns, flag unusual call behaviour, and identify fraudulent transactions in real time.

For example, AI-driven pattern recognition can analyse large datasets to detect irregular call durations, unusual call frequencies, or activity occurring at odd hours, indicators that may signal fraudulent activity.

Machine learning models trained on historical fraud cases can also help identify subtle warning signs that traditional detection systems might miss.

PwC noted that some telecom operators are already deploying AI-powered spam detection tools capable of analysing hundreds of behavioural parameters to determine whether a message is fraudulent.

Real-time data analysis, the firm added, can allow companies to block fraudulent activities before they cause major financial damage.

Beyond fraud detection, AI can also help organisations respond more effectively to incidents.

Using natural language processing, generative AI systems can convert technical security data into simplified reports tailored for regulators, executives, and compliance officers.

However, PwC said technology alone will not be enough to curb the growing threat.

The firm stressed that stronger collaboration between telecom operators, financial institutions, and regulators is essential to prevent fraud from spreading across digital platforms.

Telecom companies, it said, possess sophisticated tools capable of monitoring call patterns and network behaviour, which could help banks detect suspicious activities such as SIM swap attempts.

At the same time, banks have developed advanced fraud detection algorithms that could enhance telecom operators’ ability to identify suspicious activity across their networks.

“By sharing insights and real-time threat intelligence, both sectors can strengthen their individual and collective defences,” PwC said.

The firm cited international examples where such collaboration has improved fraud detection and response times, including initiatives in the United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia, and the Philippines. PwC also emphasised the importance of closer engagement with regulators such as the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission to ensure clear and responsive regulatory frameworks that support innovation while protecting consumers.


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MTN Nigeria Races Ahead in Fibre Broadband Market

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MTN Nigeria expanded its lead in Nigeria’s fixed broadband market after adding 13,433 subscribers to its fibre-to-the-home service in December 2025. The gains come as smaller providers struggle to retain users amid rising demand for high-speed internet.

MTN Nigeria Races Ahead in Fibre Broadband Market

Industry data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) showed sharp subscriber losses among smaller operators.

21st Century Technologies saw its subscriber base fall from 175 in December to 82 in January, a drop of more than 50 percent.

SWIFT Nigeria recorded an even larger decline.

The company lost 11,285 users, with total subscribers falling from 25,484 to 14,199, a 44.3 percent decrease.

The gap between large infrastructure providers and smaller operators is widening as broadband demand grows across Nigeria.

Companies with extensive fibre networks can offer faster speeds and wider coverage, while smaller competitors face higher costs and limited scale.

MTN has accelerated its investment in network infrastructure to maintain its lead.

The company spent ₦1 trillion, or about $715 million, in capital expenditure in 2025, more than double the ₦443.5 billion invested in 2024.

The investment followed a return to profitability, with profit after tax reaching ₦1.1 trillion after losses in 2024 linked to foreign-exchange pressures.

Spending focused on network modernization, 4G expansion, 5G rollout and deeper fibre deployment.

The operator expanded its fibre-to-the-home footprint to about 4 million households, concentrating deployments in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano and Ibadan as data traffic rose 34 percent.

Network vandalism remains a challenge. MTN recorded 9,218 fibre cuts in 2025, an average of 25 incidents per day, affecting 211 base stations.

Key Takeaways

Nigeria’s broadband market is entering a scale phase where infrastructure investment is becoming the main competitive advantage.

Telecom operators with strong balance sheets are deploying billions of naira into fibre networks to capture demand for high-speed connectivity driven by streaming, remote work, digital payments and cloud services.

Fibre infrastructure also strengthens mobile networks by connecting base stations and improving 4G and 5G performance.

However, the economics of building and maintaining fibre networks remain challenging in emerging markets. Infrastructure vandalism, power supply instability and high deployment costs increase operational risk.

These factors make it difficult for smaller internet service providers to compete with large telecom operators that can spread costs across millions of customers.

As demand for broadband continues to grow in Africa’s largest economy, the sector may see further consolidation, with dominant operators strengthening their market position while regulators face increasing pressure to maintain competition and affordable access to high-speed internet.

 

credit…. dabafinance.com


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VDT Communications Achieves Two Prestigious Certifications ISO /IEC 27001:2022, ISO/IEC 27032:2023 Reinforcing its Leadership in Broadband Service Provision

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L-r: Oluwaseyi Omoloja,Special Project Manager(SPM), Iriowen A. Osemwegie, Head, Audit &Control, Mrs. Bimbo Ikumariegbe, COO, Engr. Biodun Omoniyi,GMD, Engr. Yemi Oladele, CTO, Engr. Oluwasanmi Kehinde, Team Lead, Service Quality Improvement and Busuyi Ojarotade, Head Network Service - all of VDT Communications Limited displaying the latest certifications: ISO/IEC 27032 for Cybersecurity and ISO/IEC for Information Security recently awarded to the company.
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VDT Communications Limited, a provider of Enterprise communication solutions, is proud to announce that it has been awarded the ISO/IEC 27001:2022 Information Security Management System (ISMS) and ISO/IEC 27032:2023 Cybersecurity Management System certifications.

These prestigious certifications demonstrate VDT’s commitment to maintaining the highest standards of information security and cybersecurity, ensuring the protection of sensitive customer data and maintaining the trust of its clients.

These certifications are a testament to VDT’s dedication to implementing robust information security and cybersecurity measures, aligning with international best practices.

The ISO/IEC 27001:2022 certification recognizes VDT’s ability to establish, implement, maintain, and continually improve its ISMS, ensuring the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of customer information. The ISO/IEC 27032:2023 certification highlights its commitment to protecting its customers’ information assets and preventing Cyber threats.

VDT Communications Limited has consistently demonstrated its commitment to excellence, previously earning and maintaining ISO 9001:2015 Quality Management System and ISO 20000-1:2018 IT Service Management certifications. These certifications have enabled the company to deliver high-quality services, ensuring customer satisfaction and loyalty.

“We are thrilled to receive these two prestigious certifications, which reinforce our commitment to information security and cybersecurity. These certifications demonstrate our dedication to implementing robust security measures that ensure confidentiality, integrity and availability of customer data” said Engr. Abiodun Omoniyi, GMD of VDT Communications Limited.

The ISO/IEC 27001:2022 and ISO/IEC 27032:2023 certifications bring numerous benefits to VDT’s customers, including:

  • Enhanced information security and cybersecurity posture
  • Protection of sensitive customer data
  • Compliance with international standards and regulations
  • Improved risk management and incident response
  • Increased trust and confidence in VDT’s services

“We are proud to serve our customers with the highest level of security and quality,” Bimbo Ikumariegbe, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of VDT. “These certifications demonstrate our commitment to excellence and our dedication to delivering innovative communication solutions that meet the evolving needs of our customers” – Olufemi Akinola, Head, Information Technology.


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