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Dollar On Standby Ahead of NFP

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the vulnerable Euro received a lifeline during trading on Thursday with prices springing above 1.0600 following the hawkish surprise from the European Central Bank that caught markets off guard.

The ever-rising expectations of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in March have made the Greenback king this trading week. Although the Dollar Index has found itself under some selling pressure below 102.00 during early trading on Friday, this technical correction could simply provide a foundation for bulls to install fresh rounds of buying in the future.

With the blockbuster ADP report boosting the bullish sentiment towards the Dollar, further appreciations could be expected if today’s NFP exceeds estimates. Bulls remain in firm control moving forward and it may take an extreme anomaly in the pending US jobs report to abruptly cool the heated expectations of the Fed taking action next week.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. A weekly close above 102.00 could encourage a further incline higher towards 102.50.

Euro Gifted A Hawkish Lifeline
The vulnerable Euro received a lifeline during trading on Thursday with prices springing above 1.0600 following the hawkish surprise from the European Central Bank that caught markets off guard. Although key interest rates were kept at record lows as expected, the optimism radiating from Mario Draghi regarding the recovery of the European economy simply inspired the Euro bulls.

With the central bank no longer seeing a “sense of urgency” to take further action on monetary stimulus, markets may acknowledge this as a potential inflection point for the ECB to gradually change its monetary stance.

The fact that policymakers are already anticipating that it will not be necessary to lower interest rates further in the future could signal a gradual end to an era of negative rates if the European economy continues to stabilize.

Although the outlook for Europe is starting to look somewhat encouraging amid the positive economic data, the uncertainty gravitating around the elections in Europe continues to weigh heavily on sentiment.

The threat of political developments overshadowing the positive macroeconomic factors could expose the Euro to sharp losses in the short to medium term.

While the current upside momentum on the EURUSD is impressive, gains could be swiftly surrendered today if NFP meets or exceeds expectations. From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD remains trapped in a wide 150 pip range. Bears remain in control below the tough 1.0650 resistance.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
Gold has been sold off incessantly this week with prices crashing below $1200 as speculations heighten over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates this month.

Bears have exploited the Dollar’s stability to pressure the yellow metal further during trading on Friday as prices currently trade around $1195. With Gold’s sensitivity to US interest rate hike expectations reaching shocking levels this quarter, more downside could be expected as expectations mount over the Fed raising US rates repeatedly in 2017.

Although risk aversion from the political uncertainty in Europe, Brexit woes and Trump developments could support the metal in the longer term, bears remain in firm control this month.

From a technical standpoint, the zero-yielding metal is firmly bearish on the daily charts and a solid NFP report this afternoon could encourage a steeper decline towards $1190 and potentially lower.


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E-Financial

Africa Prudential Launches Sabivest to Boost Digital Investment Access

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Africa Prudential Plc has launched Sabivest, a digital shareholder and investment management application, as part of efforts to deepen access to investment opportunities and enhance transparency in Nigeria’s capital market.

Unveiled in Lagos, the platform is designed to provide investors with a centralised system for managing shareholdings and tracking portfolio performance across multiple investment products.

At the launch, the Chairperson of Africa Prudential Plc, Christabel Onyejekwe, said the initiative reflects the company’s commitment to leveraging innovation to improve investor experience and participation.

“Sabivest provides a unified ecosystem that enables individuals and institutions to seamlessly access, monitor and grow diversified financial assets through a single interface,” she said, describing the platform as a significant step in advancing digital transformation within the capital market.

The Managing Director, Catherine Nwosu, noted that the application, which is available for download on both iOS and Android platforms, was developed to address structural challenges that have continued to limit investor efficiency, including fragmented investment accounts, restricted access to diverse financial instruments, and inadequate visibility into portfolio performance.

According to her, the platform aggregates multiple investment services, offering users real-time insights and control through a centralised dashboard.

She added that Sabivest features consolidated portfolio views, performance tracking, asset allocation insights, and electronic dividend management, alongside tools for monitoring, documenting, and recovering unclaimed dividends.

The launch also featured a roundtable session themed, “Building Trust and Driving Innovation in Nigeria’s Capital Market,” where stakeholders emphasised the importance of technology-driven solutions in strengthening investor confidence and expanding market participation.


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IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly increasing the danger of cyberattacks on the global financial system.

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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According to a blog post from the IMF, these AI-driven threats could turn isolated security breaches into severe economic disruptions, potentially freezing payments, shaking markets, and undermining public trust in banks worldwide.

In its analysis, the fund highlighted a specific example involving the controlled release of an advanced AI model called Claude Mythos Preview by Anthropic.

The IMF noted that this model demonstrated the ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in all major operating systems and web browsers, even when used by individuals without specialized expertise.

The IMF cautioned that AI could heighten risk concentration within the financial system.

A single exploited vulnerability might cascade across numerous institutions simultaneously due to heavy reliance on a limited number of cloud providers, software platforms, and AI models.

Such events could escalate from operational issues to macro-financial shocks, triggering confidence crises, liquidity problems, and fire-sale dynamics in markets. The organization also acknowledged that AI forms part of the solution.

As attackers operate at machine speed, financial institutions are deploying their own AI-assisted tools for threat detection, fraud prevention, and faster incident response.

The IMF highlighted a geopolitical dimension to the threat, noting that cyber risk crosses national borders and that inconsistent oversight among countries could weaken the globally interconnected financial system.

Emerging economies, often with limited resources, may face disproportionate exposure.

The fund urged policymakers to treat cybersecurity as a core financial stability concern rather than a technical or operational matter.

It called for prioritization of resilience standards, systemic supervision, and international coordination to contain breaches before they spread.


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MasterCard, BMONI Partner to Improve Digital Payments

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MasterCard and BMONI, an artificial intelligence-powered financial platform, are working to launch a new generation of virtual and physical payment cards that will enable Nigerian customers to conduct fluid local and worldwide transactions.

According to the partners earlier this week, the solution is powered by MasterCard’s global payment network, enabling users to instantly create multiple Naira and US dollar-denominated virtual and physical cards that are globally accepted and ready for use, with card management handled entirely within the BMONI app.

The collaboration is one of the first locally issued international card programmes in the West African country, made possible by MasterCard’s new card issuance models, which aim to promote digital payments uptake among fintech companies in the sector, the two companies said.

With Nigeria’s e-commerce market projected to exceed $26 billion by 2030, the demand for globally accepted, instantly issued digital payment solutions continues to grow.

BMONI’s card offering, built on MasterCard’s network, responds to this shift by enabling users to operate more seamlessly across currencies and everyday spending, noted Mastercard.

Dr Folasade Femi-Lawal, country manager for West Africa, MasterCard, said: “Nigeria’s digital economy is growing rapidly; consumers need payment solutions that keep pace.

“Our collaboration with BMONI brings together Mastercard’s global network with an innovative platform like BMONI to deliver real value to consumers: instant card access, multi-currency flexibility, and seamless transactions across borders.”

Ashwin Ravichandran, head of product, BMONI, added: “At BMONI, our focus has always been simple, which is to remove the friction between people and their money. This collaboration with Mastercard allows us to deliver global access and a level of control that simply has not existed before.”


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