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Falling Oil Prices Weigh on Nigerian Economy, G20 Summit in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

The recent depreciation in oil prices presents significant risks to oil export-dependent nations, with Nigeria falling into the category.

 

Depressed oil prices will not only shave government revenues but also the nation’s ability to implement its 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. If the Central Bank of Nigeria finds itself in a difficult position to defend the Naira amid falling external reserves, inflationary pressures are likely to make a return as the Naira weakens. The near-term outlook for the economy paints a gloomy picture amid weak oil prices, rising inflationary pressures and possible depreciation of the Naira.

 

However, with GDP potentially bolstered by increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections next year and diversification in play, there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Market sentiment hangs on G20 Summit

 

Conflicting signals over the direction of trade between the world’s two largest economies are poised to place investors on an emotional rollercoaster ride ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting.

 

It was only on Monday US President Donald Trump stated that he was “highly unlikely” to suspend planned increases to existing tariffs on Chinese goods. One day later, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressed optimism that a trade deal between the United States and China was still a possibility. With Trump’s remarks clashing head-on with Kudlow’s positive comments, the US administration is clearly adopting a classical good cop, bad cop strategy leading up to trade talks. Will this method work with China? This is the question on the mind of many market players.

 

In a perfect world, the best-case scenario for financial markets will be for both sides to find a middle ground on trade and secure a breakthrough deal. However, this outcome is highly unlikely with investors closely observing for any display of co-operation or interest in further negotiations to ease trade tensions. The worst-case scenario for markets will be if talks descend into disagreements on trade which may fuel fears over a trade war between the United States and China becoming reality.

 

Dollar remains the king of the hill

 

Dollar strength is set to remain a dominant market theme this week thanks to renewed trade tensions and expectation of higher US interest rates.

 

Buying sentiment towards the Dollar brightened yesterday following hawkish remarks from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida while uncertainty over trade fueled upside gains. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the pending second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth figures to gauge the health of the US economy. There will be a special focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which will most likely be closely scrutinized for clues on how many more times the Fed plans to raise rates in 2019. If Powell strikes a hawkish note, the Dollar Index has the potential to rally towards 98.00.

 

Another painful day for the British Pound?

 

The story defining the British Pound’s painful depreciation continues to revolve around Brexit-related uncertainty and political drama in Westminster.

 

Matters could be worsened for the Pound if today’s UK Treasury’s Brexit forecast paints a very gloomy outlook for the UK economy post Brexit. Some parts of the Treasury report have already been leaked by the Telegraph this morning with the UK seen to be £150bn worse off under a no-deal. With GDP also projected to be 7.6% lower under a no-deal scenario over a 15-year period, things could get very messy to the run-up of the official Brexit deadline.

 

In regards to the technical picture, the GBPUSD is firmly bearish on the daily charts with bears eyeing the 1.2700 level.

 

Commodity spotlight – Gold

 

Gold was treated without mercy by an aggressively appreciating Dollar yesterday with prices sliding towards the $1,212 level.

 

The heavily bearish price action witnessed on the yellow metal confirms how its trajectory remains heavily influenced by the Dollar’s performance and US rate hike expectations. With the Dollar likely to remain supported by safe-haven flows and expectations of a rate hike in December, Gold is likely to witness further downside. Sustained weakness below $1,214 could inspire a move back towards the psychological $1,200 level.

 


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House of Reps Releases Certified Copies of Tax Reform Acts amid Gazette Discrepancy Claims

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House of Representatives has released certified true copies of the four tax reform Acts signed into law by President Bola Tinubu, addressing public concerns over alleged discrepancies between legislative versions and circulated gazetted documents.

House of Reps Releases Certified Copies of Tax Reform Acts amid Gazette Discrepancy Claims

Tax Reform Acts

House spokesperson, Akin Rotimi, disclosed this in a statement, noting that Speaker Tajudeen Abbas directed the immediate publication of the Acts—including endorsement and presidential assent pages—for public verification, in collaboration with Senate President Godswill Akpabio.

The move followed allegations raised by Rep. Abdulsamad Dasuki on the House floor, highlighting inconsistencies between Bills passed by the National Assembly and executive gazetted versions, which he warned could erode legislative integrity and public trust.

Abbas constituted a seven-member ad hoc committee chaired by Rep. Aliyu Betara, with members including Idris Wase, Sada Soli, Adedeji Faleke, Igariwey Iduma, Fred Agbedi and Babajimi Benson, to investigate the alleged alterations, unauthorised circulation and preventive measures.

The committee’s mandate includes probing circumstances around the discrepancies, while Abbas ordered internal verification and public release of certified copies to dispel doubts and safeguard legislative records. Legal experts, tax professionals and civil society had demanded clarification and implementation suspension amid heated debates triggered by Dasuki’s intervention.

The released laws comprise the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025; Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025; National Revenue Service Establishment Act, 2025; and Joint Revenue Board Establishment Act, 2025, described as foundational to modernising Nigeria’s tax system.

These reforms aim to enhance compliance, curb inefficiencies, eliminate overlaps and bolster fiscal coordination across federal, state and local tiers, following extensive stakeholder consultations, committee reviews and plenary debates under Abbas’s leadership.

Rotimi reassured Nigerians: “The National Assembly is an institution built on records, procedure, and institutional memory. Every Bill, every amendment, and every Act follows a traceable constitutional and parliamentary pathway.”

He emphasised that only National Assembly-certified versions hold authority, urging the public, institutions and stakeholders to disregard all other circulating documents as unofficial.


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MultiChoice Secures 12 Warner Bros. Discovery Channels in New Multi-Year Deal

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MultiChoice, a CANAL+ company, has retained the distribution rights to 12 Warner Bros. Discovery thematic channels following the signing of a new multi-year, multi-territory agreement between CANAL+ Group and Warner Bros. Discovery, marking a significant expansion of their long-standing partnership.

MultiChoice Secures 12 Warner Bros. Discovery Channels in New Multi-Year Deal

MultiChoice

The new deal, which spans several regions across Africa and Europe, covers the distribution of HBO Max as well as the renewal of selected Warner Bros. Discovery thematic channels. It represents a major milestone in the companies’ international collaboration and strengthens content offerings across MultiChoice Group territories.

MultiChoice disclosed that this agreement builds on earlier partnerships concluded in Europe. “It builds on the landmark agreements concluded in France in 2024,including the renewal of the exclusive pay-TV window for Warner Bros. Pictures films just six months after their theatrical release in France and the integration of HBO Max within select CANAL+ group offers – as well as in Poland in 2025, with the renewal of the distribution agreement for 22 thematic channels (including TVN 24 and Eurosport) and 4 free-to-air channels (including TVN).”

Under the renewed arrangement, MultiChoice Group will continue to distribute 12 Warner Bros. Discovery thematic channels across its territories, with some channels offered on an exclusive basis. CNN International and Cartoon Network will remain exclusive to South Africa while being distributed non-exclusively in other markets. Cartoon Network Porto will be exclusive in Angola and Mozambique and non-exclusive elsewhere. Other channels such as Discovery Channel, TLC, HGTV, Food Network, TNT Africa, Travel, ID and Cartoonito will be offered on a non-exclusive basis.

According to the partners, the deal reinforces CANAL+ Group’s channel portfolio on the continent. “This agreement enables CANAL+ Group to strengthen its entertainment, kids, news, and documentary channel offerings in African markets.”

The agreement is also expected to improve access for CANAL+ Group subscribers to Warner Bros. Discovery’s premium content through HBO Max and selected channels, including globally recognised series and films, further extending the studio’s international reach while consolidating MultiChoice’s content offering in key markets.

 


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Nigeria Police suspends tinted glass permit enforcement over court injunction

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Nigeria Police Force has suspended nationwide enforcement of its tinted glass permit policy, hours before its scheduled rollout, in compliance with a Delta State High Court order.

Nigeria Police suspends tinted glass permit enforcement over court injunction

Tinted glass permit

The policy, set for January 2, 2026, aimed to curb vehicle-related crimes but faced legal challenge from a private citizen against the Inspector-General of Police, the force, and Delta Police Commissioner.

An ex parte injunction issued in December 2025 restrained enforcement pending suit determination, prompting the hold announced by spokesperson Benjamin Hundeyin on January 1.

Police entered appearance, filed preliminary objections, and sought injunction vacation; hearing adjourned to January 20, 2026.

The Nigerian Bar Association condemned initial police plans as “executive recklessness,” accusing disregard for rule of law, while police insisted no permanent bar existed on statutory duties.

IGP Kayode Egbetokun reiterated adherence to law while prioritising public safety via intelligence-led strategies during proceedings.


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