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Falling Oil Prices Weigh on Nigerian Economy, G20 Summit in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

The recent depreciation in oil prices presents significant risks to oil export-dependent nations, with Nigeria falling into the category.

 

Depressed oil prices will not only shave government revenues but also the nation’s ability to implement its 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. If the Central Bank of Nigeria finds itself in a difficult position to defend the Naira amid falling external reserves, inflationary pressures are likely to make a return as the Naira weakens. The near-term outlook for the economy paints a gloomy picture amid weak oil prices, rising inflationary pressures and possible depreciation of the Naira.

 

However, with GDP potentially bolstered by increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections next year and diversification in play, there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Market sentiment hangs on G20 Summit

 

Conflicting signals over the direction of trade between the world’s two largest economies are poised to place investors on an emotional rollercoaster ride ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting.

 

It was only on Monday US President Donald Trump stated that he was “highly unlikely” to suspend planned increases to existing tariffs on Chinese goods. One day later, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressed optimism that a trade deal between the United States and China was still a possibility. With Trump’s remarks clashing head-on with Kudlow’s positive comments, the US administration is clearly adopting a classical good cop, bad cop strategy leading up to trade talks. Will this method work with China? This is the question on the mind of many market players.

 

In a perfect world, the best-case scenario for financial markets will be for both sides to find a middle ground on trade and secure a breakthrough deal. However, this outcome is highly unlikely with investors closely observing for any display of co-operation or interest in further negotiations to ease trade tensions. The worst-case scenario for markets will be if talks descend into disagreements on trade which may fuel fears over a trade war between the United States and China becoming reality.

 

Dollar remains the king of the hill

 

Dollar strength is set to remain a dominant market theme this week thanks to renewed trade tensions and expectation of higher US interest rates.

 

Buying sentiment towards the Dollar brightened yesterday following hawkish remarks from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida while uncertainty over trade fueled upside gains. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the pending second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth figures to gauge the health of the US economy. There will be a special focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which will most likely be closely scrutinized for clues on how many more times the Fed plans to raise rates in 2019. If Powell strikes a hawkish note, the Dollar Index has the potential to rally towards 98.00.

 

Another painful day for the British Pound?

 

The story defining the British Pound’s painful depreciation continues to revolve around Brexit-related uncertainty and political drama in Westminster.

 

Matters could be worsened for the Pound if today’s UK Treasury’s Brexit forecast paints a very gloomy outlook for the UK economy post Brexit. Some parts of the Treasury report have already been leaked by the Telegraph this morning with the UK seen to be £150bn worse off under a no-deal. With GDP also projected to be 7.6% lower under a no-deal scenario over a 15-year period, things could get very messy to the run-up of the official Brexit deadline.

 

In regards to the technical picture, the GBPUSD is firmly bearish on the daily charts with bears eyeing the 1.2700 level.

 

Commodity spotlight – Gold

 

Gold was treated without mercy by an aggressively appreciating Dollar yesterday with prices sliding towards the $1,212 level.

 

The heavily bearish price action witnessed on the yellow metal confirms how its trajectory remains heavily influenced by the Dollar’s performance and US rate hike expectations. With the Dollar likely to remain supported by safe-haven flows and expectations of a rate hike in December, Gold is likely to witness further downside. Sustained weakness below $1,214 could inspire a move back towards the psychological $1,200 level.

 


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More 14m Farmers to Benefit from AfDB-backed Initiative

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Additional 14 million farmers in 37 low-income and vulnerable countries served by the African Development Fund, the Bank Group’s concessional financing window, are set to benefit from a technology initiative targeted at scaling up climate-resilient food production across the continent.

This comes after the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) signed a $16.61 million grant agreement to launch the third phase of the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation Programme (TAAT-III)

TAAT-III, funded by the African Development Fund, is expected to consolidate earlier gains benefiting 14 million more farmers while introducing a more sustainable, private sector-driven delivery approach.

AfDB said the initiative aims to reinforce seed and technology distribution systems, deepen partnerships with governments and agribusinesses, and expand the digital tools, including its technology e-catalogues and real-time monitoring platforms, to speed up deployment of high‑impact solutions.

Simeon Ehui, director general of IITA, commented: “TAAT-III allows us to deepen the delivery of science‑based solutions that improve farmers’ yields and livelihoods. Working with the Bank and our partners, we are scaling technologies that make Africa’s food systems more resilient and competitive.”

Since its launch in 2018, TAAT has become one of Africa’s most effective and transformative platforms for agricultural innovation, reaching nearly 25 million farmers and boosting productivity across major staples.

The initiative has expanded climate-resilient agricultural practices across over 35 million hectares.

In a statement, the AfDB said working closely with the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research Centres and national and regional partners, TAAT has increased crop yields up to 69% and generated more than $4 billion in additional agricultural value.

Countries including Sudan, Ethiopia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria have recorded notable gains in staple crop productivity and resilience to climate shocks.

Nigeria has been a key beneficiary of TAAT initiatives. Under its Wheat Compact, farmers adopting improved heat-tolerant varieties more than doubled yields from 1.7 tons per hectare to 3.5 tons per hectare.

Programme supported seed system assessments also helped inform national reforms to expand access to certified, climate-resilient seeds.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, Abdul Kamara, director general of the Bank Group’s Nigeria Country Department, said the new phase will focus on scaling innovation more rapidly

Kamara said: “TAAT-III underscores the Bank’s commitment to ensuring that proven, climate-resilient agricultural technologies reach farmers faster and at scale. This phase strengthens the systems that deliver innovation, helping countries boost productivity, enhance resilience, and align agricultural transformation efforts with the Bank’s four new areas of emphasis, dubbed the Four Cardinal Points.”

 


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Newmark Webinar Explores How AI Could Transform Healthcare in Africa

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A recent webinar hosted by the Newmark Group examined how Artificial Intelligence AI is changing healthcare across Africa, highlighting both its promise and its risks.

Newmark Webinar Explores How AI Could Transform Healthcare in Africa

Newmark

The session, titled “AI in Healthcare: Opportunities and Challenges,” brought together healthcare and communications experts who agreed that AI can help fix long-standing problems in Africa’s health systems — but only if it is used carefully and responsibly.

Gilbert Manirakiza, CEO of Newmark Group in his opening speech said that AI is already helping speed up decision-making. He said AI tools can quickly analyse patient feedback, monitor conversations online, personalise health messages for different audiences and reduce delays in approvals.

He noted that many patients now turn to AI tools like ChatGPT to ask about symptoms and treatments. Because of this, he said health communicators must take responsibility for ensuring accurate information is available.

“If AI makes mistakes in healthcare, the consequences affect real lives,” he said.

Manirakiza stressed that Africa’s healthcare environment is unique. Many communities rely on mobile phones, speak different local languages and trust religious or community leaders. He warned that AI systems built mainly with Western data may misunderstand African realities.

He summarised his position simply: AI should help speed up work, but humans must ensure accuracy.

Daniel Marfo spoke about how AI is already being used in practical ways. Insurance companies now use AI systems to process thousands of claims daily. In hospitals, electronic medical records can suggest possible diagnoses and help doctors decide which patients need urgent attention.

He also said AI tools are helping detect problems in X-rays and MRI scans faster, especially in places where there are few radiologists. This reduces waiting time for patients.

At a national level, countries such as Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Ghana are building health data centres powered by AI to help governments track diseases and plan better responses.

However, Marfo warned that AI tools must be built using local medical guidelines to gain doctors’ trust. He emphasised that AI should support doctors, not replace them.

Dr. Afriyie Bempah focused on how AI can help countries prepare for health crises before they happen. He said resilience is not just about recovering from shocks, but about predicting them early.

He cited examples such as Kenya using AI to track mosquito patterns to predict malaria outbreaks, and Ghana using digital tools to improve disease reporting. In South Africa, digital health systems have been adapted to manage patients with chronic illnesses remotely.

He explained that linking clinics, pharmacies and supply chains through data sharing can help detect disease trends early and prevent large outbreaks.

During the question session, speakers discussed challenges such as data privacy, incorrect AI outputs, biased systems, and resistance from some healthcare workers.

They recommended clear rules for AI use, fact-checking AI-generated information, and creating internal review teams to monitor its application.

In their closing remarks, the panel encouraged healthcare professionals to learn how to work with AI tools to improve efficiency. They also urged young Africans to see healthcare technology as a major opportunity for innovation and investment.

The webinar concluded that AI is here to stay in healthcare. But its success in Africa will depend on strong regulation, local adaptation and continued human oversight — especially in a sector where mistakes can cost lives.


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Conoil Bonanza Winners Emerge

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Conoil Plc is spreading joy this Valentine season as the first group of winners in its Valentine Bonanza promotion have been announced and rewarded. Launched on February 14, the campaign continues to delight customers at participating retail outlets.

The initial raffle draw, conducted on February 21, saw fortunate customers receive ₦10,000 worth of free petrol each. The draw was carried out publicly, with media representatives present to ensure full transparency. With the promotion still ongoing, more customers have the opportunity to join in and potentially be among the next winners.

A Conoil Management spokesperson explained that the initiative is a way to show appreciation to loyal customers for their ongoing support. “Our customers have responded impressively to the bonanza, with strong participation recorded across our stations,” the spokesperson said.

The second and final phase of the promotion is now in motion. Customers who purchase at least 10 litres of petrol at any participating Conoil station remain eligible to win in the grand finale raffle.

The grand finale is set for February 28 at 12 noon. Motorists in Lagos and Ogun states are encouraged to visit Conoil outlets to collect their tickets and take part in the exciting conclusion of this Valentine celebration.


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