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FXTM Analysis: BoE Holds Rates as Sterling Spikes Higher

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The Bank of England shocked the global markets during trading on Thursday following the unexpected decision to keeping interest rates unchanged despite the mounting post-Brexit pressures.

Concerns remain elevated over a potential Brexit fuelled recession while the persistent Brexit uncertainty has punished the UK economy, but the BoE has decided to remain on standby.

Expectations were high over the central bank cutting rates by 0.25% in an effort to reclaim some economic stability but today’s decision has installed Sterling bulls with inspiration. Most on the MPC expect policy to be loosened in August and this should limit the upside gains viewed in the Sterling.

Fundamentally nothing has changed, and if UK domestic data continues to follow a tepid path amid the Brexit anxieties, then further cuts and interventions by the BoE could be commonplace in the future.

The Sterling/Dollar spiked towards 1.347 following the BOE’s unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged but could trade lower once investors digest the reality of a future rate cut. From a technical standpoint, a decisive break down below 1.32 could open a path back down towards 1.28.

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Dollar Searches for Direction
Dollar bulls displayed resilience during trading on Wednesday following the positive Beige Book report which signalled that the US economy continued to expand from mid-May through the end of June.

This report comes at a time where the impressive NFP report for June showed US labour force resilience in a period of ongoing global instability.

It seems that the overall US outlook has improved with retail sales, manufacturing and employment respecting a positive trajectory consequently fulfilling the domestic prerequisites for a US interest rate rise before year end.

Although the rising US rate rise expectations continue to improve sentiment towards the Dollar, concerns still linger over the Brexit anxieties obstructing any efforts taken by the Fed to act.

In this period of uncertainty, the Dollar searches for direction and the post-Brexit developments could offer the clarity investors seek.

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From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index has displayed some exhaustion above 96.00. A decisive breakdown below 96.00 could open a path towards 94.00.

Stock Markets Venture Higher
Global stocks were elevated during trading on Thursday as the combination of optimism over central bank intervention and easing post-Brexit uncertainties boosted sentiment, consequently renewing risk appetite.

Asian markets strolled into the green territory with the weakening Yen propelling the Nikkei +0.95% as expectations mounted over further stimulus measures in Japan amid the global instability.

In Europe, stocks exceeded expectations consequently grasping new highs ahead of the heavily anticipated BoE monetary policy meeting. It seems likely that the positive domino from Asia and Europe may provide the foundation for Wall Street to edge higher on Thursdays open.

Although the fierce short-term stock market rally could be commended, investors must remain diligent over the lingering impacts a Brexit could have on the UK and global economy.

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Concerns have heightened over a potential Brexit fuelled recession in the UK and if this leaks into the global economy, sentiment could take a blow ultimately punishing global stocks.

Crude Oil Declines
Oil prices tumbled more than 3% on Wednesday with WTI Crude cutting below $46 after the crude oil inventories reported a smaller than expected crude oil inventory draw for the first week of July.

This coupled with the fact that Saudi Arabia’s oil production was bolstered to almost 10.6 million barrels a day in June offered the encouragement for bears to install a heavy round of selling.

Oil prices have been bearish for an extended period and may remain bearish as the incessant oversupply concerns haunt investor attraction.

With fears still lingering that demand may be waning amid the fears over slowing global growth, oil prices may be poised to depreciate lower in 2016. The toxic combination of excessive oversupply and waning demand could force low oil prices to be the dominant theme moving forward.

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From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude is bearish and a decisive break down below $44 could open a path towards $40.

Commodity Spotlight –Gold
Gold has been on a rocky ride with prices violently swinging between losses and gains as a mixture of Dollar appreciation, renewed risk appetite and lingering Brexit concerns encouraged investors to systematically offload and reload positions.

Regardless of the short-term fluctuations, this metal remains bullish and the ongoing fears over the global economy should keep prices buoyed.

Although June’s impressive NFP installed a heavy of selling in the metal, this was short lived as expectations remain suppressed over the Fed raising US interest rates in 2016.

Despite the optimism that central banks may intervene, uncertainty is still a central theme which should bolster this metal’s allure. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the upside. Gold may be in the process of creating a new higher low and a breakout above $1345 could open a path towards $1370.

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E-Financial

SEC Begins Drive to Recover Unclaimed Dividends

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced a nationwide enlightenment campaign to help Nigerians recover unclaimed dividends and other monies arising from capital market transactions.

SEC Begins Drive to Recover Unclaimed Dividends

The campaign, which began with a town hall meeting in Lagos on Thursday, is aimed at sensitising investors on the existence of unclaimed monies, the role of the National Investor Protection Fund (NIPF) and the procedures for verifying and recovering legitimate claims.

Emomotimi Agama, director-general of SEC, who was represented at the event by Hafsat Rufai, director, Registration and Exchanges, Market Infrastructure Department, said the initiative was necessary to ensure that funds belonging to investors were returned to their rightful owners.

Agama said unclaimed monies administered by the NIPF included return monies from public offers, scheme consideration from mergers, acquisitions and corporate restructuring transactions, as well as other funds belonging to investors that had remained unclaimed.

He noted that the Commission considered it unacceptable for investors’ funds to remain unclaimed, adding that many investors and their families were either unaware that such monies existed or did not know the procedures for recovering them.

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Agama said the SEC Board had approved a nationwide public enlightenment campaign to sensitise Nigerians on unclaimed monies, the role of the NIPF and the process for making legitimate claims.

He said the Lagos programme marked the commencement of the outreach, which would subsequently cover the six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory.

The director-general said the campaign would also address the transmission of securities following the death of an investor, noting that families were often unaware that their deceased relatives owned shares or other capital market investments.

He said even when beneficiaries were aware of such investments, many lacked knowledge of the legal and administrative procedures required to obtain probate or letters of administration and transmit the investments to the rightful beneficiaries.

Agama said the Lagos programme included an expert session on probate administration and the transmission of securities to demystify the process and provide practical guidance to investors and their families.

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He urged investors to maintain proper records of their investments and encouraged families to take steps to preserve inherited wealth.

The SEC DG also warned Nigerians against Ponzi schemes and other fraudulent investment arrangements, saying fraudsters continued to exploit economic pressures and digital platforms to lure unsuspecting members of the public with promises of guaranteed and unusually high returns.

He urged the public to be cautious of investment opportunities offering risk-free returns, stressing that investor education and vigilance remained critical to combating financial fraud.

Speaking on behalf of Lawal Pedro, attorney-general and commissioner for Justice,Lagos State, Olujoke Ogunojemite, deputy director in the Ministry of Justice, commended the SEC for extending the campaign to Lagos and recognising the role of legal institutions in resolving issues relating to unclaimed dividends and other assets.

She said the issue had a practical impact on beneficiaries who were unable to access assets after the death of their loved ones.

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Ogunojemite said the ministry was committed to ensuring that legal processes did not become barriers to beneficiaries seeking to recover legitimate assets.

She described the SEC’s outreach as commendable, saying it would help restore assets to their rightful beneficiaries.

 

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World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

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World Bank has said that despite nearly three years of economic reforms by the federal government, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty.

World Bank Says 79 Percent of Nigerians Still Trapped in Poverty despite Reforms

The bank stated this in its newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic.

The report which highlighted the country’s deepening social and economic challenges, indicated that while recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence, the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.

The World Bank noted that the seven-year strategy seeks to support Nigeria’s ambition to create more and better jobs through private-sector-led growth while accelerating poverty reduction.

According to the Streamlined Country Diagnostic document, “Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”

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The World Bank pointed out that Nigeria’s economic performance over the past decade had been constrained by structural rigidities, policy missteps, dependence on crude oil, and repeated external shocks, leaving millions trapped in poverty.

It stated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country.

The report also noted that more than 86 million Nigerians remain without electricity, while three to four million young people enter the labour market every year with limited employment opportunities.

It added that sustaining macro-fiscal and structural reforms would be critical to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and ensuring that recent economic stabilisation translates into improved living standards.

According to the report, the reforms have begun to improve macroeconomic indicators.

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Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves exceeded $42bn, fiscal deficits narrowed, and investor confidence strengthened.

However, it warned that high inflation continues to undermine household incomes. The report stated, “High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”

The World Bank added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a more severe economic crisis, institutional weaknesses, weak policy coordination, and inadequate budget transparency continue to pose significant risks.

It warned that sustained reform implementation, backed by deeper structural measures, would be required to improve Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook.

Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank said job creation would serve as the primary pathway for reducing poverty.

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The report explained that international experience from countries such as India, Indonesia, and China shows that moving people into productive employment remains the most effective tool for reducing poverty.

To achieve this, the framework will prioritise labour-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises, while addressing structural deficiencies in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.

 

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NRS Harps on e-Invoicing to Boost Tax Compliance, Curb Revenue Leakages

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The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) said the rollout of electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) will strengthen tax compliance, curb revenue leakages and improve transparency in tax administration as it moves to fully digitise the country’s tax system.

The Project Lead, NRS e-Invoicing Project, Mohammed Bawa, stated this at the DigiTax E-Invoicing Compliance Breakfast Session held in Lagos.

The event, organised by DigiTax, an NRS-accredited e-invoicing platform, formed part of efforts to support the agency’s ongoing education and sensitisation campaign on the e-invoicing mandate.

Bawa said the initiative aligns with global trends in tax digitization and is expected to help improve Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which remains one of the lowest in Africa.

According to him, the system will provide the NRS with greater visibility into transactions across sectors, formalise activities within the informal economy and standardise invoice formats nationwide using globally recognized invoice schemas.

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He added that e-invoicing would improve operational efficiency for both businesses and tax authorities while supporting the NRS’ transition from manual and electronic tax administration processes to a fully automated system-to-system interaction model.

Bawa noted that the legal framework for implementation is backed by the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, which prescribes penalties for non-compliance.

He disclosed that the NRS has completed onboarding large taxpayers and is preparing to enforce compliance with defaulting entities.

According to him, medium taxpayers are expected to begin compliance in the third quarter of 2026, while onboarding of emerging taxpayers will commence in 2027, with full adoption targeted for all taxpayers by the end of 2028.

Bawa urged taxpayers yet to be onboarded onto the platform to begin the process and work with accredited service providers to ensure compliance.

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Speaking at the event, Country Director of DigiTax Nigeria, Olumide Akinsola, urged businesses to look beyond their internal systems and assess the compliance status of suppliers and counterparties.

He warned that businesses whose suppliers fail to transmit invoices through the MBS platform risk losing eligibility to claim Value Added Tax (VAT) input credits on such transactions, describing the resulting supply chain exposure as a significant commercial risk that many organisations have yet to quantify.

Akinsola also announced the launch of DigiTax’s white paper, ‘The State of E-Invoicing Readiness in Nigeria,’ which examines compliance adoption trends and the readiness gap across different taxpayer segments.

He added that DigiTax operates in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), noting that experience from those markets shows businesses that integrate early are better positioned to avoid disruptions when enforcement begins.

 

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