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FXTM Analysis: British Pound Continues to Fall Down The Charts

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The British Pound has continued to fall down the charts during trading on Wednesday as a result of the markets becoming concerned regarding the upcoming EU referendum and the significant risks that the UK economy would face if the United Kingdom did vote to leave the European Union in just over three weeks.

I think that investors were generally beginning to underprice the possibility of a UK exit as if it was a forgone conclusion that the United Kingdom would automatically vote to remain in the European Union later this month and as a result of the threat being underpriced, the British Pound is suffering steep losses and remains to appear under heavy selling pressure.

All of the risks for the British Pound are still pointing strongly to further weakness and there is limited upside strength potential for the currency even if the UK did vote to remain in the EU later this month.

What investors need to remember is that UK economic momentum is weakening and data has disappointed the markets throughout 2016, meaning buyers are not going to be heavily encouraged to price in longer-term strength for the currency regardless of the outcome later in June.

With Dollar demand currently looking very stable due to the renewed US interest rate optimism, it has become extremely difficult to construct an argument for the GBPUSD to trade any higher than 1.50 and this might be the limit for the Pound/Dollar throughout the second half of 2016.

This ultimately means that the trading strategy from investors will be to continue selling rallies in the GBPUSD.

Over the shorter term and if the markets continue to be alerted regarding the possibility that the upcoming referendum is not a foregone conclusion for a “remain” outcome, this means that the GBP will continue to remain under pressure against currencies such as the Euro and Japanese Yen.

The positive news for the GBP is that with the Dollar being revived due to renewed US interest rate optimism is that the majority of global currencies are going to be under pressure due to a strengthening USD, meaning that it is not just one-way traffic for further Pound losses against all currencies over the medium and longer-term.

WTI Oil slips lower as OPEC outcome awaits
After making yet another attempt to reach the ceiling at $50 during trading on Tuesday, WTI Oil has hit the wall and declined by nearly $2 to trade slightly above $48.21 on Wednesday. $50 is still seen as the psychological “top” for the commodity and we would need to close above this level as trading concludes for the week for WTI Oil to be able to trade above $50.

The general expectations are that there will be no changes to the outcome from the OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow, meaning that the oil markets could remain under pressure as a result.

The area between $47.20 – $47.40 is currently seen as the next area of support for WTI Oil but even if we fall below this level, the commodity would need to conclude weekly trading below the $44-$42 for worries to emerge that we could truly see the returns of heavy selling for the oil markets.

Aside from the OPEC meeting causing some short-term anxieties to investors, it is worth pointing out that both OPEC and the IEA released reports in May indicating that global inventories will suffer from a dramatic decline in reduction over the second half of 2016 and this would be very positive when it comes to the medium and longer-term outlook for the price of oil.

Japanese Yen strengthens despite sales tax delay
The Japanese Yen has appreciated against many of its currency partners today, despite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing a delay to a sales tax increase from 8% to 10% until at least late 2019.

This news should have really weakened the Japanese Yen because it would have been seen as another update to fiscal reforms that should have enticed further spending from consumers, which in turn would have increased inflation prospects that have long plagued the Japanese economy.

The best explanation to provide for the Japanese strength during trading today would likely be strictly correlated to the risk aversion we are seeing in the markets with equities coming under pressure and the USDJPY once again finding tough resistance at 111.

It is worth pointing out to technical traders that the last time the USDJPY met profit-taking at 111 that the currency pair suddenly fell off a cliff towards 106, and we have already nearly dropped from 111 to marginally above 109 over the past two trading sessions.

Jameel Ahmad isChief Market Analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office in Owerri

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NOVA Bank has opened its regional office in Owerri, Imo State, as part of its expansion drive across the South-East and South-South regions.

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office In Owerri

At the inauguration ceremony, recently, Senator Hope Uzodinma, Imo State Governor, announced that the state government would provide land for the development of the bank’s permanent regional headquarters for the South-East and South-South in Owerri.

The event was attended by government officials, business leaders from the two regions, and members of the Nigerian diaspora.

Governor Uzodinma stated that the bank’s entry into Imo State aligned with the government’s efforts to promote economic growth through infrastructure development, improved road networks, and market-driven initiatives.

He described NOVA Bank as an early investor in the region’s emerging economic opportunities.

He also commended the bank’s approach of combining physical banking infrastructure with digital platforms, noting that it aligns with the state’s emphasis on technology-driven governance and commerce.

“In recognition of NOVA Bank’s vision and long-term commitment to the region, the Imo State Government will allocate a suitable parcel of land in a prime location for the development of its permanent South-East/South-South Regional Headquarters,” the governor said.

Speaking at the event, Phillips Oduoza, chairman, NOVA Bank, thanked the Imo State Government and residents for their support, describing the Owerri office as a key part of the bank’s national expansion strategy.

“The opening of our regional office in Owerri marks a strategic milestone in NOVA Bank’s growth and underscores our commitment to the South-East and South-South,” Oduoza said, adding that the city would serve as a hub for the bank’s operations in the region.

He said the bank’s expansion is driven by a focus on sustainable growth, innovation and strong financial fundamentals, noting that NOVA Bank is investing in digital infrastructure and financial solutions to support small and medium-sized enterprises, corporates, public-sector institutions, high-net-worth individuals and the mass market.

According to him, the planned regional headquarters is expected to support job creation, improve access to credit, promote enterprise growth and deepen financial inclusion across the two regions.

Oduoza said the bank remains focused on building a resilient institution that delivers value to customers, partners and shareholders.

The opening of the Owerri regional office marks NOVA Bank’s latest step in expanding its presence in southern Nigeria.


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SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that Capital Market Operators (CMO’s) are to renew their registration from January 1 to 31, 2026.

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

In a bid to make the process seamless, the Commission says it will commence electronic receipt and processing of applications for registration and updates of registration information in the first quarter of 2026.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director general of the SEC,  stated this during an interview in Abuja.

According to Agama, “These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes. The Commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, databased supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market.

The SEC Boss stated that through its Digital Transformation Portal, the Commission has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

Commercial Paper Issuance Module 

He said the Commission has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability. Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable. These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability.

Agama affirmed that the Nigerian Capital Market is clearly on a path toward digital transformation, therefore,  there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

He said, “A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools. Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable.”

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He therefore urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it would not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian Capital Market.


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Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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