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FXTM Analysis: Earnings, Macro Data To Drive Financial Markets Week Ahead

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Last week’s robust U.S. corporate announcement indicated that there’s a high chance for corporate America to get out of its five consecutive quarter long profit recession.

According to factset, 78% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that beat on the bottom-line and 65% beat on the top-line.

Upside earnings surprises is way above the historic average of 66%, which could be interpreted as good news for the overstretched equities valuations, however earning guidance is not showing the same trend with 10 out of 17 S&P 500 companies issuing a negative EPS guidance so far.

Another worrying signal is the level of cash sitting on the sidelines now. According to Blackrock, $50 trillion of worldwide holdings are in cash now, showing that many investors are concerned about the markets next move whether it’s in equities or fixed income.

The week ahead is very busy on the corporate front with more than third of S&P 500 companies reporting results. Many investors would like to know how many iPhones Apple sold in the third quarter, while others are more interested in the energy sector which was the main drag on earnings with companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. General Motors, Alphabet, Caterpillar, P&G, Mylan, MasterCard, and Hershey are only a few among those reporting next week, so lot of data to digest.

On the macro front, third quarter GDP figures from UK and the US will be closely monitored by investors.

On Thursday, UK will offer a first glimpse into the performance of the economy after voting to leave the European Union.

The flash Q3 GDP data is forecasted to show 0.3% growth compared to last year, less than half of second quarter’s 0.7%. Albeit growth is slowing, the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy is far less than what had been expected, but this is likely to change if the divorce negotiations went the hard way, were a recession will be very hard to escape.

In the U.S. we’re looking for an opposite scenario, were economic activity likely picked up after a disappointing first half of 2016. Markets are looking for a 2.5% economic growth in Q3 from a 1.4% in Q2. Any figure below 2% will likely kill the idea of Fed raising rates in December, and thus pull back the dollar from its seven-month high.

 

 


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E-Financial

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

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Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.

The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.

According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.

The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.

The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.

By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.

Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.

The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.

Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.

The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.

 

 


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SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.

This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.

In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”

Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.

The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.

“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.

It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”

SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.

“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.

The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.

 


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Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

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Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.

In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.

According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.

Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.

“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.

The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.

While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.

Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.

They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.

At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.


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