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FXTM Analysis: FXTM June Major Assets Roundup

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Pushed to the cliff’s edge over the last six months of speculation and negative sentiment, the GBPUSD finally toppled off the verge on June 24th, the day after the Brexit vote was confirmed.

Plunging to levels last seen in 1985 during the ensuing panic sell-off, the GBPUSD fell to the level of 1.3234 from a high of 1.4974 earlier in the month.
 
Although the UK is not in the Eurozone, the implications of the wider European Union economic bloc without the UK partnership has also impacted heavily on the Euro.

The EURUSD fell from a high of1.135 mid-month to a low of 1.099 after the vote, while the GBPEUR dived steeply from a high of 1.3132 to a low of 1.1991. UK travellers are expected to find their Sterling cash worth much less across most major exchange rates, at the very least for the short-term.

The Gold price soared amid the uncertainty, taking off from $1260/ounce on June 23rd to over $1330 by June 24th. Investors stayed true to form during the market crisis, and rushed to buy up the safe-haven asset, while selling off the ones with higher risks.

Black gold – WTI Crude Oil – was also caught up in the sell-off, dropping to a low of $47/barrel from a high of $52 in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit shock.

The storm’s epicentre may have been the UK, but it spread fast and furiously across the world markets. Emerging market currencies suffered short-term wave crests in the storm before stabilising.

The USDIDR bucked from 13,333 to 13,550, throwing off the calming reins placed by Bank Indonesia’s new measures, namely an interest rate benchmark of 5.5 percent.

Due to the risk aversion in the markets and sudden loss of risk appetite following the unexpected shock from the EU referendum result, all of the emerging market currencies declined with this including the Indonesian Rupiah.

The reason was not too due to Brexit outcome having a direct impact on the local economy, but because reduced risk appetite encourages investors to be less attracted towards the emerging markets.

The local currency has since then regained losses, however it is possible that global economic uncertainty will linger for some time following this vote and this would mean there could be risk aversion in the markets at a later date.

The news of a possible tax cut is going to dominate the news locally within Indonesia, with the advantage to such an initiative being that the government is clearly trying to ease disposably income in the hope of higher domestic spending.

Of course and like the regular easing from the Bank Indonesia, these initiatives are targeted to improve domestic spending and GDP growth at a time where the economy is slowing down due to external risks.

The Ringgit blinked in shock as well. The USDMYR jumped from 3.9500 to 4.0900 in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit.

The volatility smoothed out somewhat thanks to Malaysian Prime Minister NajibRazak’s timely statement. The PM said that he did not expect that the Brexit would have a significant impact on the Malaysian economy, and that fiscal reforms would continue to be furthered.

The Malaysian Ringgit has been on a wild rollercoaster as of late, suffering steep losses as a result of the EU referendum shock to then regain all momentum around one week after the outcome. The EU referendum outcome is going to lead to a period of uncertainty in the markets that is likely to fuel risk aversion at a later stage, which in turn could negatively impact the Malaysian Ringgit.

It is still very difficult to pinpoint which direction the local currency is heading in next, and it should be remembered that the Federal Reserve have still not publically commented on how this could impact US interest rate policy.

The bright side to this is that if the Fed do postpone any possibility of future rate rises, then it might pull investors back towards the emerging markets where there is the benefit of higher interest rates.

The USDCNY was jolted from 6.5800 to 6.6900. It was to be expected that China’s currency could face challenges in the wake of the Brexit, but on the other hand, there is also speculation that China’s stock markets and larger business centres could gain some business if it starts flowing out of London.

The UK’s capital is expected to lose some power as a worldwide business and financial centre, mainly because of the gigantic tangle of legal and trading uncertainties presented by the Brexit.

The CNY is continuing to play down the expectations,as we believed it would do as the second half of the year approached.

The period of uncertainty now in the markets, following the EU referendum shock is going to plague risk appetite, which will be negative for the emerging markets and no EM is alone in withstanding this threat.

There are concerns in the short term that the China economy could be negatively impacted by the UK leaving the European Union, mainly because it is clear that the two governments have formed very close ties over the past two years and any loss of UK stability could impact the UK economy and its ability to maximize China relations.

The bright spot is however that the UK is now going to be forced to diversify trade relations outside of the EU, which is obviously going to present opportunities for the emerging markets because this is one area of the UK economy you would think would be reached out towards.

Obviously, if China has now developed strong relations with the UK then this could work out to their advantage at a later stage.

For the UAE’s Dirham, the main story was the GBPAED exchange rate, which fell from 5.5110 to 4.841 overnight just after the Brexit vote.

The ramifications could include cheaper exports from the UK to the UAE, but more barriers to travellers from the UK to GCC countries, given the stronger AED versus the Pound.

One possible benefit however is that the Brexit has triggered new impetus towards the idea of a free trade area between the UAE and the UK.

I think the plunge in the GBP exchange rate must be very pleasing news to any UK expatriate living in the Emirates right now. Of course, there is the positive aspect that any UAE company could now exploit and import products from the UK at a cheaper price, which might be encouraging to GDP prospects via higher imports at a time when GDP growth will be slipping lower due to depression in the price of oil.

I remain unsure how much further the GBP could fall against the AED in the medium term, not necessarily because there is any reason to be positive on the British currency, but because I don’t think the Federal Reserve are going to be in any position to begin raising US interest rates anytime soon. Any Dollar pressure is likely to lead to AED weakness, due to its peg against the USD.

Looking ahead to July, the market fallout from the Brexit vote is set to dominate, and risk appetite appears to be due for a diet of Gold and short-term profit-taking.


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E-Financial

Agama,  New SEC Boss Goes Tough on Illegal Trading

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has said that it will go all out to act decisively to uphold the integrity of the capital market and protect the interests of all investors.

Agama,  New SEC Boss Goes Tough on Illegal Trading

This is in a bid to rid the capital market space of illegal trading activities.

This was stated by Dr Emomotimi Agama, acting director general of the SEC, during a virtual meeting with the Blockchain Industry Coordinating Committee of Nigeria (BICCoN), the umbrella body of all major blockchain and cryptocurrency Associations in Nigeria.

Agama stated that the SEC Nigeria will not hesitate to utilize all the powers within its mandate to handle issues that are negative and pose a threat to national interest saying that the Commission has come as a partner to seek collaboration in making sure that the capital market community is respected globally for decency and fair play.

The SEC boss said the recent concerns regarding crypto P2P traders and their perceived impact on the exchange rate of the Naira has underscored the need for collective action and dialogue within the financial market ecosystem.

He said “There are basic practices as enshrined in the Investments and Securities Act 2007 and we expect that everyone will abide by those rules. Some may say no rules to play by, but do not forget that we have the Investments and Securities Act 2007 that some actions by participants today may be violating, hence the law is the law irrespective of the technology used.

 

“However, for specific Digital Asset regulatory regime that many have been calling for, we want to assure you that we are working tirelessly to establish an accommodating regulatory guideline for digital assets. The SEC as your regulator is desirous to work with you by providing a level of assurance that is needed by all that are operating within the rules of the market”.

The DG stated that the proposed regulatory guidelines which are currently being fine-tuned with suggestions by various stakeholders, will encompass various activities within the cryptocurrency ecosystem ranging from Wallet providers, digital asset custodians and fund managers, Cryptocurrency Crowdfunding, Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), Security Token Offerings (STOs), Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs), Cryptocurrency Exchange platform providers, Virtual Asset brokerage services etc., ensuring that every Nigerian playing within the industry with the potential to contribute to economic progress is included, supported and properly regulated.

“I am poised for an innovative digital asset regulatory regime that will sustain Nigeria as Africa’s Digital Asset Powerhouse with diverse solutions like Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) that will drive wealth and catalyse our capital market. We must explore innovative solutions to this problem and strike the right balance between encouraging innovation and safeguarding our national economic interests. This we will do in afriendly and firm manner, to enable us to achieve the desired result”.

“We have a great market ahead of us and we have the talents and the people to make the market great.  Mr President is concerned about the teeming youths involved in this space and would encourage them to do the right thing and develop an ecosystem that we all will be proud of. It becomes necessary that we do what is right. Manipulations and all forms of activities that undermine our national interest would not be acceptable. It is therefore very important that we know that the SEC by Section 13 of the ISA speaks to the regulation of all capital market activities.”

Agama expressed his gratitude to the leadership of the Blockchain Industry Coordinating Committee of Nigeria (Biccon) the umbrella body of all major blockchain and cryptocurrency Associations in Nigeria, and assured them of the commission’s readiness to work closely with all stakeholders in the cryptocurrency ecosystem to create a better country for all of us.

“With our deep understanding of this industry and the cryptocurrency sub-sector, we recognize the importance of collaboration and cooperation in addressing the challenges we face; hence your insights and suggestions are invaluable as we seek to navigate these complexities together. We need your support as much as you need ours.

“On that note, I want to emphasize that we are working on different fronts to sustain decent practices within our market, however, we are here to meet ourselves to know those playing within the sector decently and are open to hearing your suggestions on how we can effectively manage all obscure cryptocurrency trading activities within our jurisdiction p2p inclusive irrespective of the challenge we all know that p2p trading posses.

We must explore innovative solutions to this problem and strike the right balance between encouraging innovation and safeguarding our national economic interests. This we will do in a friendly and firm manner, to enable us to achieve the desired result.

Agama stated that one of the things that need to be done is delisting the naira from the P2P space to avoid the level of manipulation that is currently happening enjoining participants in the crypto space to be patriotic enough to name and shame those that are involved in disrupting the markets negatively.

“I want to seek your co-operation in dealing with this as we roll out in the coming days the regulations that would take control of these areas. We want to ensure that this management will ensure that people or institutions that require registration with the SEC are quickly licenced. We assure you that we will give guidance when necessary and do well to streamline the processes to make it less difficult.

“We ask that those involved in sharp practices that undermine national interest should cease. It is in our interest as a people to protect what belongs to us. We encourage you to reach out to us by naming and shaming the bad actors. Together, I am confident that we can weed out bad actors and harness the immense potential of this progressive technology for the benefit of all Nigerians in tandem with this government’s renewed hope agenda” he added.

In his remarks, Dr Babatunde Oghenobruche Obrimah, chairman of the Fintech Association of Nigeria  commended the director general for his bold steps and the relationship with the ecosystem and pledged their commitment to work with the DG  and granted him all the support that will help him succeed in sanitizing the virtual ecosystem.

On their part, BICCoN requested the setting up of a working group to tackle the various challenges facing the crypto space in a bid to move the market forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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CBN Invites Bidders to Upgrade ICT Facilities

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is planning to upgrade its information and communication technology (ICT) facilities at the Dealing Room in Abuja.

CBN Invites Bidders to Upgrade ICT Facilities

This announcement was made through a statement titled “Request for Proposal for the Upgrade of the ICT Facilities at the Central Bank of Nigeria Dealing Room, Abuja,” posted on its website on Friday.

A dealing room is a place where shares, currencies, or commodities are bought and sold.

The Dealing Room plays a critical role in managing the nation’s foreign exchange and government securities, this upgrade is crucial for the stability and security of the financial system.

Part of its statement read, “To enable both departments to carry out their responsibilities efficiently and effectively, the bank established a world-class dealing room at the headquarters and equipped it with ICT facilities in 2015. The ICT facilities have, however, attained end-of-life or end-of-support status and have resulted in suboptimal performance.’’

It stated that interested contractors must submit bids by June 14, 2024. Requirements include evidence of similar project experience and a minimum turnover of N500m in the last three years.

According to CBN, proposals from a single vendor or multiple vendors working together as a team will both be considered.

The Central Bank stated that it reserves the right to reject bids that do not meet requirements and to terminate the procurement process at any time, without incurring any liabilities.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is searching for certified vendors with verifiable capacity and experience in implementing the required solution, including experience in the public sector.

 


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CBN Orders Banks to Charge 0.5 Percent Cybersecurity Levy

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has ordered banks operating in the country to start charging a cybersecurity levy on transactions.

A circular from the apex bank on Monday disclosed that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from yesterday.

The circular was directed to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks, among others.

The circular revealed that it was a follow-up on an earlier letter dated June 25, 2018 (Ref: BPS/DIR/GEN/CIR/05/008) and October 5, 2018 (Ref: BSD/DIR/GEN/LAB/11/023), respectively, on compliance with the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) Act 2015.

The recent public engagements by the Office of the National Security Adviser on the above subject, also refers.

Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and under the provision of Section 44 (2)(a) of the Act, a levy of 0.5 per cent (0.005) equivalent to a half per cent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser.

The CBN said that all banks, other financial institutions and payment service providers are now required to implement the directive, saying, “The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’.

“Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month.”

Exempted from the levy include loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, ⁠Letters of Credits, ⁠Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.

The CBN, in recent times, has been making an effort to sanitise the financial sector. It recently issued a directive which barred fintechs from onboarding new customers.

The fintechs have in turn warned their customers against engaging in crypto transactions on their platforms.

This also comes barely a week after the Federal Government had directed Deposit Money Banks to immediately begin the deduction of 0.375 per cent stamp duty charge on all mortgaged-backed loans and bonds.


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