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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Maintains Resilience Against the Storm

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Confidence towards the Nigerian economy received a welcome boost following reports of the country reclaiming its position as the largest economy in Africa.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP currently stood around $415.08 billion in October while South Africa at $280.36 billion sparking discussions of the nation standing firm against the storm.

Although the release was seen as a breath of fresh air, it must be kept in mind that Nigeria is still entangled in a painful battle with depressed oil prices while ongoing concerns over faltering domestic growth weigh on sentiment.

External risks such as a resurgent Dollar amid renewed US rate hike expectations have pressured the Naira, with the local currency currently trading around 448 on the black market exchange as of writing.

Oil’s volatility and rising rate hike expectations enticed bearish investors to send the Naira to the lows of 475 against the Dollar in early October before prices staged a remarkable rebound towards 450.

With the Naira’s value being dictated by external risks in the shorter term, the current rebound in value may be the product of oil’s resurgence amid renewed hopes of a potential OPEC freeze deal.

WTI Oil currently hovers above $50, a value which is supportive of Nigeria that receives over 90% of its export revenues, and 70% of its government revenues from oil prices. If Oil continues to trade higher and OPEC surprise the markets with a freeze deal, the world’s largest economy in Africa could be elevated as rising oil revenues would help plug the budget deficit.

Looking at the economic data, Nigeria’s inflation floated towards 17.9% in September its highest figure in eleven years consequently highlighting the pressures faced since the NBS stated that the country stumbled into a technical recession.

Although the figure was somewhat painful, the visible slowdown from August’s 17.6% level displayed the impacts of the record 14% interest rates set by the Central Bank of Nigeria. It seems that the CBN is on a quest to quelling inflation while attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) via high-interest rates and although it may be early to gauge the impacts, the early results look encouraging.

The main theme in Nigeria revolves around the government finding solutions to fund its budget which could help the nation steer away from the curse of oil reliance. President Muhammadu Buhari has tabled a budget of roughly N6.06 trillion for 2016, but the shortfall continues to spark debates over selling key assets to plug the deficit. While selling the national assets may offer a solution in the short term the long-term losses of potentially relinquishing the goods at below cost value could place the nation under further pressure.

With Nigeria displaying resilience despite the persistent talks of a recession, nations such as China and America have come forward to offer a helping hand.

Chinese investors have already signed an agreement to boost the Nigerian economy with digital television, information communication in focus, while the U.S has pledged to increase FDI in Nigeria.

Despite the short-term gloom and doom, the global economy remains optimistic over the future of Nigeria’s economy once diversification builds momentum.

For instance, PwC’s research indicates that the nation could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030 making it a super power that could shake the globe. The first steps to this great journey remain critical with everything revolving around diversification and finding the right methods of funding.

When discussing diversification, the blueprints have already been published, with agriculture acting as the goose that lays the golden eggs. With a population hovering around 180 million and set to grow exponentially as the years progress, agriculture could be a key attribute which sparks economic stability.

Once any nation has the ability to feed itself, the surplus may be exported globally which could provide additional government revenues that are reinvested back into the nation. Other major sectors in Nigeria such as maritime, tourism, technology and manufacturing all have the ability to generate untold results once the infrastructure is reinforced.

The complicated jigsaw puzzle on how to stabilize the Nigerian economy slowly becomes solvable by the day as pieces such as diversification; funding and improving economic data provide investors the clarity needed to fill the gaps. When falling oil prices punished the nation the main focus revolved around diversification, but this has shifted to the budget deficit and solutions for funding.

Nigeria plans to sell a Eurobond worth $1 billion before the end of the year and if thisis successful it could bolster sentiment towards the Nigerian economy as the first steps are taken to plug it’s 2.2 trillion Naira budget deficit.

 


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E-Financial

Alawuba Advocates Security, Bankable Projects, Infrastructure Development to Promote South-East Vision

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Oliver Alawuba, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, has called on leaders and key stakeholders in the South-East to prioritise security and peace, infrastructure development and the delivery of bankable, investment-ready projects.

Alawuba Advocates Security, Bankable Projects, Infrastructure Development to Promote South-East Vision

Oliver Alawuba, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc,

This, according to him, is critical if the South Eastern region of the country is to unlock its long-term development agenda under the South-East Vision 2050 (S8V2050).

Alawuba made the call while delivering a goodwill remark at the South-East Vision 2050 Regional Stakeholder Forum which was held at the International Conference Centre, Enugu on Wednesday.

The multi-day forum was convened by the South-East Development Commission (SEDC) in collaboration with the Office of the Vice President, the Ministry of Regional Development and the South-East State Governments, to build consensus around a shared development pathway for the region and advance implementation-ready interventions aligned with national priorities.

Speaking in his capacity as GMD/CEO as well as the Chairman of the Body of Banks’ CEOs and on behalf of Corporate Nigeria, Alawuba identified peace and security as the most urgent requirement for attracting investment into the region, noting that safety remains the first signal investors assess before committing capital.

“The first thing the South-East needs is peace. It is an established fact, world over, that investments flow in the direction of safety,” Alawuba stated, urging state governments and regional leaders to sustain coordinated efforts to secure lives, assets and infrastructure.

He also challenged stakeholders to adopt a results-driven partnership model between government and the private sector; just as he noted that the success of the South-East Vision 2050 will largely depend on the region’s ability to articulate and package clear, measurable and value-adding projects capable of attracting long-term capital.

“Vision alone is not enough. The South-East must present specific, bankable projects with defined impact – projects that can unlock investment, create jobs and deliver real improvements in the lives of our people,” Alawuba stated.

The Forum brought together prominent Nigerians from across government and the private sector, including His Excellency, Senator Kashim Shettima, GCON, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Governors of the South-East States (Imo, Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi and Enugu), Distinguished Senators and Honourable Members of the House of Representatives.

Other key participants included the Honourable Minister of Regional Development, the Chairman, Board Members and Management of SEDC, Royal Fathers and members of the clergy, members of the Diplomatic Corps, captains of industry, and development partners.

The UBA CEO took time to commend the South-East Governors for visible progress in road construction and other critical facilities across the region, while calling for accelerated delivery at scale.

He said, “Infrastructure is the bedrock of development,” he said. “We have seen improvements, but a little bit more is required such as reliable power, motorable roads, rail, water and connectivity to remove the bottlenecks that limit productivity and competitiveness.”

While stressing the importance of creating a truly investor-friendly business environment and unlocking diaspora capital to drive inclusive growth, he added that “Capital will always respond to predictability, ease of doing business and confidence. If we get the fundamentals right, Corporate Nigeria and the banking industry will rally round to finance viable projects, support SMEs, create jobs for our youth and mobilize long-term capital to make South-East Vision 2050 a reality.”

He seized the opportunity to reaffirm UBA’s readiness to partner the SEDC and South-East State Governments, as he noted that the Vision 2050 framework will be strengthened by private-sector participation and long-term capital mobilization to ensure it remains credible and investable.

United Bank for Africa is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group-wide and serving over 45 million customers globally. Operating in twenty African countries, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France and the United Arab Emirates, UBA provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services, leading financial inclusion and implementing cutting-edge technology.


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Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

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Ecobank Transnational Incorporated has reported a 29 per cent rise in profit after tax to N950.0bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, driven by growth in interest income and non-interest revenue.

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

This was indicated in the Condensed Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements for the year ended December 2025 filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Friday.

According to the report, the pan-African banking group’s gross earnings rose 14 per cent to N4.82tn, while total revenue increased 18 per cent to N3.67tn.

Profit before tax climbed 30 per cent to N1.28tn, up from N986.7bn in 2024. Operating profit before impairment charges rose 29 per cent to N1.89tn.

In the period under review, net interest income grew 22 per cent year on year to N2.14tn, supported by a 15 per cent increase in interest income to N3.18tn.

Interest expense rose modestly by four per cent to N1.04tn.

Non-interest revenue also strengthened, rising 13 per cent to N1.53tn, buoyed by a 17 per cent increase in fee and commission income to N1.03tn, and a 14 per cent growth in trading income and foreign exchange gains to N559.36bn.

However, other operating income declined 22 per cent to N68.6bn, while net losses on investment securities widened to N10.98bn.

Impairment charges on financial assets rose 28 per cent to N613.26bn, reflecting higher credit risk provisioning during the period.

Despite this, operating profit after impairment increased 30 per cent to N1.28tn.

Total profit stood at N950.0bn, compared to N735.9bn in 2024. Total assets expanded 14 per cent to N49.44tn, up from N43.30tn in 2024.

Loans and advances to customers increased 11 per cent to N17.09tn, while deposits from customers rose 15 per cent to N36.45tn, reinforcing the bank’s funding base. Total equity strengthened significantly, rising 50 per cent to N4.17tn, driven largely by retained earnings growth.

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders stood at N2.91tn, up from N1.75tn. Total liabilities increased to N45.27tn, from N40.52tn in the previous year.

Ecobank operates in 34 African countries and several international financial centres, serving more than 32 million customers across consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking segments.


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Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

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African fintechs hoping to sign up the continent’s next billion users will need to rethink the industry’s long-running growth playbook, according to Musty Mustapha, Managing Director of Kuda Microfinance Bank, who says cashbacks and incentives may drive downloads but rarely help build sustainable businesses.

Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

Kuda MFB MD

Speaking at a fintech panel discussion on scaling digital financial services across Africa at Tech Revolution Africa, a gathering of tech leaders, investors, operators, and professionals which was held at Landmark Event Center on January 31, 2026, Mustapha objected to what he described as the “growth at all costs” culture which has defined much of African fintech so far. While incentives can quickly inflate user numbers, he said they often fail to create the kind of trust and consistent usage that keeps customers long term.

“It is easy to buy users,” he said. “But if you grow without creating real value, you’re only solving for today’s numbers and ignoring whether the business survives tomorrow.”

His comments come at a time when many startups are under pressure to demonstrate stronger unit economics as venture funding tightens and investors shift attention from rapid acquisition to profitability and retention. In that environment, Mustapha argues that reliability, not marketing spend, will determine which fintechs endure.

Contrary to common assumptions, he said African consumers are not resistant to technology but cautious, shaped by years of unreliable services and weak infrastructure. Products that work seamlessly elsewhere often struggle locally because they fail to account for that trust deficit.

“They’re not digitally naïve,” he said. “They’ve just operated in low-trust environments. If something fails even once or twice, you lose them.”

That focus on trust has influenced how Kuda Microfinance Bank has approached its growth. Launched in 2019 as a digital-first bank, it expanded from roughly 100,000 customers within its first year to nearly 300,000 the next, before surging past 2 million customers in 2021. Today, the microfinance bank serves more than 7 million Nigerians, Mustapha said, describing the journey as less predictable than the numbers suggest.

“The reality is, you can’t forecast scale neatly,” he said. “You can wake up and suddenly have a huge spike in users. If your systems and people aren’t ready, you crumble.”

In his view, the strain on a fintech typically shows up first behind the scenes, not on its app. As volume increases, back-office functions such as reconciliation, chargebacks and customer support can quickly become chokepoints, eroding the trust that fintechs are trying to build. Founders, he said, often underestimate these operational demands in the early days while prioritising product development.

“Anything you don’t pay attention to in your first six months will come back to hurt you at scale,” he said.

External constraints add more complexity. Payment rails, power supply, and connectivity remain outside the control of most fintechs, making outages and delays inevitable. Rather than trying to outspend those limitations, Mustapha said companies must design around them by building redundancies and multiple pathways for critical services.

“You don’t assume perfection,” he said. “If one channel fails, there must be another. That’s how you stay reliable.”

As traditional banks, telcos, and startups increasingly compete for the same mass-market customers, Mustapha expects the winners to combine the strengths of each group — the capital base of banks, the distribution reach of telcos, and the speed of fintechs. But regardless of the model that dominates, he believes the fundamentals will remain the same.

For millions of first-time or underserved users, the deciding factor is simple: whether the service works every time.

“There’s this idea that the average customer can’t use sophisticated products,” he said. “That’s not the issue. What they want is something they can trust.”

As fintech chases its next phase of growth, trust, rather than incentives, may prove to be the sector’s most valuable currency.


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