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FXTM Analysis: UK Inflation Accelerates in April, Sterling Sinks

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on UK inflation and the current moods of Sterling, Euro and Dollar.

Sterling tumbled lower on Tuesday following reports of UK consumer prices jumping to 2.7% in April, the highest level since September 2013. It is becoming quite clear that the Brexit-fuelled currency weakness has elevated inflation to uneasy levels with consumers likely to feel the pinch if wage growth fails to keep up.

Despite the rising prices, expectations of an interest rate increase in the short term remain subdued with uncertainty over Brexit and BoE doves playing a key part.

The Bank of England may receive further headaches in the future with the combination of rising inflation and slowing economic growth weighing heavily on sentiment.

Sterling/Dollar is under pressure on the daily charts as bulls are struggling to keep above 1.2900. An intraday breakdown below 1.2850 should encourage a further depreciation lower towards 1.27750.

Dollar Bulls Missing In Action
The Greenback entered the trading week under renewed selling pressure as the amalgamation of political tensions in the US and soft economic data impeded investor attraction towards the currency.

Sentiment towards the Greenback took another hit on Monday after sellers exploited the surprisingly soft US manufacturing report to enforce further downside pressures. With the Dollar descending to its lowest level at 98.50 since Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, the Trump rally could be on its last leg. While heightened expectations remain over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in June, the ongoing uncertainty revolving around Trump may ensure Dollar bulls remain missing in action. From a technical standpoint, the Greenback is bearish on the daily charts with weakness below 98.50 opening a path towards 98.00.

EURUSD breaks above 1.1000
A recent relief of political risk in Europe has rekindled appetite for the Euro with prices lurching to a fresh six-month high at 1.1040 as of writing.

With Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French Presidential election dealing a symbolic blow to populism and quelling fears of “Frexit”, investors have redirected their attention back towards the macro-economics in Europe.

The overall data from Europe in recent months has displayed a touch of resilience and it will be interesting to see how the improving macro-fundamentals and Macron’s victory impact the ECB meeting in June. Euro bulls seem to be back in town with a vulnerable Dollar fuelling the upside rally.

From a technical standpoint, the breakout above 1.1000 has turned the EURUSD bullish on the daily charts. A daily close above 1.1000 should encourage a further appreciation towards 1.1120.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
A vulnerable Dollar supported Gold on Tuesday with the metal finding comfort around $1235 as of writing. Although US interest rate hike expectations are likely to dictate where Gold trades to in the medium to longer term, uncertainty, and geological tensions should support the metal in the short term.

Persistent Dollar weakness should encourage short term bulls to send prices above $1235. A breakout above $1235 may provide permission for buyers to send prices higher towards $1245.


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E-Financial

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

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NGX Regulation Limited (NGX REGCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has sanctioned five trading license holders for alleged market manipulation and other prohibited trading activities, imposing fines totaling N291million.

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

In a notification dated March 27, 2026, and addressed to Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator said the decision followed deliberations of its Regulatory and New Business Committee (RNBC) held on March 16 and 24, 2026.

The sanctioned firms are CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Cowry Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, SMADAC Securities Limited, and Associated Asset Managers Limited.

NGX RegCo stated that the cases were escalated by its Investigation Panel after hearings on February 25 and March 17, 2026, which uncovered repeated infractions such as wash trades, self-matching transactions, artificial price formation, and misleading market activity.

CSL Stockbrokers was fined N91.29 million, while Cowry Securities, Meristem Stockbrokers, SMADAC Securities, and Associated Asset Managers were each penalized N50 million in accordance with the Investment and Securities Act 2025.

The Exchange also directed the affected firms to undertake mandatory compliance and market conduct training to reinforce regulatory adherence and enhance market discipline.

It noted that the sanctions are proportionate to the violations and are intended to deter future misconduct, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding market integrity, protecting investors, and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.


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FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

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Federal government has launched the “Cross-Border Digital Payments and Identity in Nigeria under the AfCFTA” report, urging stakeholders to unlock trade opportunities for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to access the $3.5 trillion African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) market.

FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

The high-level report, hosted by the Office of the Vice President in collaboration with ODI Global under the Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (SITA) programme, was unveiled by Ibrahim Hassan-Hadejia, deputy chief of staff to the President, in Abuja.

Hassan-Hadejia described the research as both timely and strategic, noting the strong coordination by the Office of the Vice President and the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

He revealed that the cross-border payments report followed earlier milestones, including the development and launch of Nigeria’s Digital Trade Strategy and a capacity-building programme for subnational leaders.

Furthermore, he said Nigeria is increasingly assuming a leading role in shaping the digital trade agenda across the African continent, necessitating that the country remains at the forefront of AfCFTA implementation.

He noted that deepening engagement with AfCFTA and enabling businesses, particularly SMEs, to conduct seamless cross-border transactions will be critical to unlocking trade, fostering growth, and creating jobs.

He further stated that efficient cross-border payments, supported by trusted digital identity systems as recommended in the report, will be key to realising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope vision for Nigerian MSMEs.

The Deputy Chief of Staff also observed that while the report identifies the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a critical platform for cross-border digital payments, Nigerian fintech firms such as PalmPay and Moniepoint, which have some of the largest and most active user bases, will play a pivotal role in driving adoption.

He assured that the Federal Government remains committed to strengthening critical infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships to ensure Nigeria is not only ready for digital trade but continues to lead.

“I appreciate the efforts of all stakeholders and urge us to move AfCFTA beyond a continental agreement to a $3.5 trillion trade juggernaut that will reinvigorate our industries, unlock intra-African trade, and domesticate African prosperity,” he added.

He said “intra-African trade will be driven not only by large corporations but by small businesses empowered through digital trade and e-commerce, while noting that issues of trust, identity, and logistics, as highlighted in the report, must be addressed”.

Commenting on the report, Temitola Adekunle-Johnson, special Adviser to the President on Job Creation and MSMEs, said the report – developed under the purview of the Office of the Vice President-would significantly strengthen the MSME ecosystem.

He expressed optimism that the report’s findings and recommendations would enable Nigerian SMEs to achieve seamless access to continental markets.

Salihu Dasuki, special Assistant to the President on ICT Policy, Office of the Vice President, disclosed that the office, in partnership with development partners, has developed a framework to fast-track seamless cross-border payments for MSMEs.

He added that “a key pillar of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is enabling Nigerians to access digital trade, which informed the capacity-building programme conducted for subnational governments last year”.

Shuda Ahmed, special assistant to the President on Project Support, Office of the Vice President, commended ODI Global for leading the research underpinning the report.

She noted that without seamless and affordable cross-border payment systems, MSMEs across the continent would be unable to scale beyond their domestic markets.

The event was attended by officials of ODI Global, representatives of AfCFTA, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and MSMEs, among other key stakeholders.


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Interswitch Deepens Strategic Partnership with KCB Group to Advance Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion

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Interswitch, Africa-focused integrated payments and digital commerce enabler, has reaffirmed and expanded its longstanding partnership with KCB Group within the East Africa region, marking a significant milestone in the drive to accelerate seamless, secure, and inclusive digital payments across the region.

During a recent executive engagement at KCB Group Headquarters in Nairobi, Interswitch Founder and Group CEO, Mitchell Elegbe, led a cross-functional delegation from the company’s Lagos and Nairobi offices, including Interswitch’s Kenya Country General Manager, Bernard Kinara, in high-level discussions with KCB leadership, including Group CEO, Paul Russo, and Director of Strategy & Innovation, Mark Mwongela.

The engagement reinforced both organizations’ shared commitment to scaling digital payment infrastructure and delivering innovative financial solutions that meet the evolving needs of individuals, businesses, and institutions across the region.

Interswitch recently announced an expansion of Verve card acceptance footprint in Kenya, leveraging it’s consolidated partnership with KCB Group, Kenya’s largest financial services group by assets, following a similar move in Uganda through the local KCB Franchise in February 2022.

At the core of the strengthened collaboration is the integration of Interswitch’s robust payment rails, card scheme, and emerging digital token solutions with KCB Group’s expansive regional footprint and trusted banking franchise. This integration enables the acceptance of Verve cards and tokenized payment solutions across KCB’s extensive merchant point-of-sale network in Kenya and Uganda, significantly enhancing everyday usability for customers while strengthening KCB’s digitally driven retail payments offering.

The consolidated partnership is expected to drive increased merchant acquisition, improve interoperability across payment ecosystems, and expand access to secure, cashless transactions. It also reinforces both organizations’ shared objective of deepening financial inclusion and accelerating digital commerce across East Africa.

Speaking on the strategic engagement with KCB Group, Mitchell Elegbe noted:

“Our collaboration with KCB Group represents a powerful alignment of vision and capability. By combining our technology-driven payment solutions with KCB’s strong regional presence, we are unlocking new opportunities to scale access, drive innovation, and deliver greater value to customers across East Africa.”

As digital transformation continues to reshape Africa’s financial services landscape, Interswitch and KCB Group remain focused on building resilient, interoperable systems that empower businesses, support economic growth, and drive broader participation in the digital economy.


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