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FXTM January Currency Roundup

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Concerns over the resumption of selling in the commodity markets, China’s slowdown and the market’s adjustment to higher US interest rates led to volatility and losses in the international stock markets throughout January.

Downward pressure also remained on the EURUSD with the most popular currency pair falling as low as 1.0718 in the first week of January, before regaining ground by the end of the month and rising to 1.0989.

Commodities told a mixed story, with Oil dipping below $30 per barrel and Gold rising past 1120 USD per ounce.

The bearish trend in Oil continues to be dominated by an ongoing oversupply in the market, while there are also concerns over slowing demand for the commodity due to weak global growth.

The increase in the price of Gold signals that investors might be hedging towards safe-haven assets as investors continue to be alarmed by concerns over international market volatility and an acceptance that commodity prices are set to remain depressed for an extended period, which will also drive GDP prospects lower.

Emerging currencies were buffeted by these headwinds with the Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah and Nigerian Naira all returning close to milestone lows against the Dollar.

Losses in the emerging market currencies were also accelerated by fears over the weakening of the Chinese currency, with the USDCNY jumping from as low as 6.4805 to as high as 6.6048.

The emerging market currencies remain at heavy risk due to concerns over China’s economy, and their currencies did face punishment as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued to set the reference rate for the USDCNY higher at the beginning of the year.

This is clearly being seen by many as an effort to reinvigorate economic momentum in China by making their exports more competitive, while also encouraging inflation pressures as importing into China becomes more expensive.

The USDINR went through peaks and valleys during January, moving from a low of 66.1253 to a high of 68.1619 towards the end of the month, pressured by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in the final days of January.

It has become a common trend for emerging market currencies to come under extreme selling pressure before the Fed’s monthly rate decisions, with anxieties ongoing that the Fed will raise interest rates once again in the upcoming months following the first interest rate rise in December 2015.

The Indian Rupee is still falling victim to a weak sentiment towards the emerging markets, and it is likely that the central bank are still having to intervene in the FX markets to defend the local currency. The positive news for India is that the economic data is looking strong and it appears that the lower interest rate environment has had a positive impact on consumption.

The negative news for the currency is that the robust GDP outlook is not yet having an impact on the Rupee, and that the local currency is still vulnerable to further gradual declines if the emerging market sentiment remains weak.

Indonesia’s currency – the Rupiah – was no exception to the volatility. The USDIDR was seen moving from 13590 to 14069 in dramatic fashion, impacted by the unfortunate explosions in Jakarta and an overall bearish sentiment for emerging currencies.

The underlying fundamentals don’t paint a pretty picture; Indonesia missed its GDP target of 5.7 percent for 2015, finishing the year at the lower-than-expected level of 4.73 percent. A widening deficit is also being eyed by investors as a sign of future economic risks.

The Indonesian Rupiah had a disappointing start to the year, with the local currency seeing its sentiment weakened by various different factors. Investor sentiment was obviously weakened by the tragic explosions in Jakarta, while the resumption of selling in the commodity markets also led to the USDIDR returning above 14000.

With Indonesia being seen as a heavy commodity exporter alongside strong trade links to China, GDP output is expected to continue slipping lower and I believe this may result in an interest rate deduction by the Bank of Indonesia.

Nigeria’s central bank is faced by a Naira weakened by low Oil prices and the global slowdown, but it has so far declined to lower the current interest rate of 11 percent or to devalue the currency.

The USDNGN moved between a low of 198.0000 and a high of 199.4097, and with the Oil prices set for a short-term bearish future, the volatility is likely to be making its presence felt in the coming months.

There might be some expectations that the Nigerian central bank will need to reduce interest rates, but I think that the weakening Naira will lead to higher inflation pressures and this means that reducing interest rates might not be an option for the central bank.

With the oil markets hitting further milestone lows and dropping below psychological support levels, it looks like depressed commodity prices will remain a trend for a prolonged period and this basically means that the Naira will also remain depressed. There is very little that the Nigerian central bank can do to combat this, and a potential rebound in the Naira can only be helped by an improved oil price.

Out of all the emerging currencies, the Malaysian Ringgit fared the best in January with the USDMYR moving in a range between 4.14 and a high of 4.43.

The clearing of Prime Minister Najib Razak from the 1MDB scandal and the hopeful conclusion to this saga should improve investor confidence.

The combination over the clearing of Prime Minister Najib from the 1MDB scandal and an improved rebound in the oil markets at the end of the month led to a positive conclusion to January for the Malaysian Ringgit.

We have seen a rebound for the Malaysian Ringgit, but I am wary that the currency has reached a “top” for now. I also expect for the revision to the budget to only have a short-term positive impact on the local currency.

What Malaysians need to focus on is the oil markets, because the failure of WTI oil to surpass $35 on Friday 29th January would have encouraged profit-taking from traders.

This will also increase the risk of WTI oil returning close to $30 in the opening trading days of February, which also means that the USDMYR is at risk to returning above 4.20. 

The United Arab Emirates Dirham tracked the strong USD dollar to which it is pegged, with the USDAED moving in a narrow range of 3.6718 and 3.6733 throughout January.

The biggest factor that affected the AED was the strong USD and there may be some knock-on effect on tourism due to lower buying power.

With regard to other factors, oil revenues are expected to stay flat in 2016 given the accelerated selling in oil, with this likely having a negative impact on GDP growth.

I actually see the stronger Dirham as a positive for the UAE economy because it allows for the UAE to import from abroad at a cheaper price, which might also alleviate some of the possible pressure on GDP growth due to the depressed price of oil.

We do however expect for the milestone lows in the oil markets to continue adding pressure on local equity markets, which will also remain at risk to any potential increase in geo-political tensions around the region.

The combination between both the resumption of aggressive selling in the oil markets and the increased geo-political tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran meant that local equity markets suffered throughout January.

Overall, it was a challenging first month for the emerging currency markets with renewed selling in the oil markets and the resumption of concerns over the China economy leading this currencies to losses.

 

 


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E-Financial

Fidelity Bank “Basking in Approval” under Onyeali-Ikpe, CEO

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Fidelity Bank Plc is basking in endless and stakeholders are happy.

Fidelity Bank "Basking in Approval" under Onyeali-Ikpe, CEO

Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, managing director and chief executive officer, Fidelity Bank Plc

With nearly 10 million customers, Fidelity Bank is demonstrating excellent market traction.

This a crucial evidence for investors that the bank is solution driven.

For instance, at the capital market, the bank was the toast of investors as  its market value surged amid bargain hunting on the Nigerian Exchange, with investors gaining more than 11 percent after few days of tradings last week only.

Fidelity Bank’s share price increased to N22.30 at the close of the market last Friday, as 11.227 million units valued at N251.523 million.

Investors are simply reacting positively to strong earnings, technology-driven growth, and strategic expansions.

Fidelity Bank, emerged a more robust financial institution after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and  the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ordered massive banking recapitalization exercise.

Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, managing director and chief executive officer, Fidelity Bank Plc, is being credited for driving these exceptional shareholder value, operational performance, and sustainable growth.

Despite the immense responsibility and intense pressure, especially during turbulent times,  Onyeali-Ikpe, has been strutting her stuff by strategic vision and exemplary leadership.

Onyeali-Ikpe has built Fidelity Bank as beacon in the banking industry underpinning the bank with trust, innovative technology, strategic growth, and strong leadership as well as  reputation.

She has broken every glass ceilings delivering milestones and solid imprints in the annals of banking.

The bank only recently completed CBN-verified share allotment, hitting N532 billion capital.

This heavy chest now guarantees the bank long-term stability, and enabling it operate with speed.

Since appointment on January 1, 2021, Onyeali-Ikpe, has-anchored the bank on bespoke digital, financial, and technology-driven tools designed to enhance customer experience.

By integrating AI, automation, and advanced data analytics, Fidelity Bank is today delivering solution banking.

Under Onyeali-Ikpe’s leadership, the bank has significantly improved brand equity.

Fidelity Bank also announced the completion of the acquisition of a 100 per cent stake in Union Bank UK, under the CEO.

A recent Brand Finance report ranked Fidelity Bank as the fastest-growing Nigerian brand, with its brand value more than tripling.

Onyeali-Ikpe was also named among the 2024 Most Influential Global Top 100 Export and International Trade Leaders, recognizing her contribution to expanding Nigeria’s trade and export financing capabilities.

Under her, Fidelity Bank has received multiple awards, including Export Finance Bank of the Year (2023 BAFI Awards), Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023, and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 (Global Banking and Finance Awards).

The bank was also recognized by Euromoney for Best Bank for SMEs (2023) and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria (2023).

Onyeali-Ikpe will be leaving as head of the bank this year but her record of placing the institution  upward trajectory will be indelible.

She may be leaving “big shoes to fill” because of her high-energy, infectious positivity which made her successful in everything she does.

 

 

 

 


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FCMB, BHM Champion New Revenue Models for Media Sustainability

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB), in partnership with BHM, hosted the pilot edition of The Monetised Content Masterclass, bringing together reporters, content creators and editors to address growing pressure on the sustainability of newsrooms and media platforms.

FCMB, BHM Champion New Revenue Models for Media Sustainability

L-R: Adeola Adejokun, Head, Communications, First City Monument Bank; Chris Ihidero, Award-winning Director and Producer; and Diran Olojo, Divisional Head, Corporate Affairs, First City Monument Bank, during the Monetised Content: A Media Masterclass Presented by FCMB and BHM, in Victoria Island. Lagos on Monday, April 20, 2206.

The session comes at a time when traditional advertising revenues are declining for news publishers, even as Nigeria’s entertainment and digital media market continues to grow and is projected to reach $4.9 billion by 2026.

Against this backdrop, the masterclass focused on practical ways for media organisations, independent content creators, and digital platform owners to diversify income, build financial resilience, and sustain editorial independence and integrity.

Participants explored revenue opportunities beyond traditional advertising, including brand partnerships, digital content monetisation, and audience-led models. The one-day session featured panel discussions, Q&A sessions, and peer exchanges designed to translate industry trends into practical action.

Speaking at the event, Divisional Head, Corporate Affairs, FCMB Group, Diran Olojo, said: “Traditional models are under pressure, and attention is more fragmented than ever. The focus now is on building structured, sustainable platforms that can deliver both impact and long-term value.”

Also speaking, CEO and Founder of BHM, Ayeni Adekunle, said: “The economics of media have changed. For journalism to remain independent, it must also become financially resilient. That shift requires new thinking and deliberate action.”

The session was moderated by Fatu Ogwuche, Founder and CEO of Big Tech This Week, and featured speakers including investigative journalist Fisayo Soyombo, storyteller and producer Chris Ihidero, executive and storytelling expert Jennifer Mairo, and digital media entrepreneur Peter Oluka.

The initiative reflects a shared commitment by FCMB and BHM to support the long-term sustainability of the Nigerian media ecosystem through capacity building and industry collaboration.


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CRMI Backs CBN’s New Measures to Curb Fraud

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Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has backed recent regulatory measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) aimed at strengthening the security of the country’s digital financial ecosystem, while urging stricter compliance across the banking industry.

CRMI Backs CBN’s New Measures to Curb Fraud

Kevin Ugwuoke, president and chairman of Council,  in a statement, described the new framework as a timely and proactive response to rising risks such as fraud, identity theft, and unauthorised access within the instant payment system.

He noted that key safeguards introduced by the apex bank including a N20,000 transaction limit on newly activated mobile banking applications within the first 24 hours, mandatory device binding, and real-time enterprise fraud monitoring are designed to reduce vulnerabilities associated with account takeovers, especially during the early stages of account activation.

“By limiting transaction exposure during the high-risk activation window, the framework significantly reduces the opportunity for fraudsters to exploit newly onboarded or compromised accounts,” Ugwuoke said.

The institute, however, stressed that the success of the measures would depend largely on effective implementation.

It called on banks, fintech firms and payment service providers to strengthen cybersecurity infrastructure, invest in fraud analytics and prioritise staff training as well as customer awareness.

CRMI also welcomed the introduction of the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR), describing it as a major step toward standardising overnight funding rates, deepening financial markets and improving monetary policy transmission in line with global best practices.

The endorsement comes as the CBN unveiled a draft revised Guide to Charges for Banks and Other Financial Institutions, 2026, signalling a broader shift toward transparency, consumer protection and efficiency in the financial system.

The revised guide introduces caps on key banking charges and mandates stricter disclosure requirements.

Under the framework, interbank transfers between N5,000 and N50,000 are capped at N10, while transactions above N50,000 attract a maximum of N50, with transfers below N5,000 remaining free.

The apex bank also standardised ATM withdrawal charges, pegging fees at N100 per N20,000 for on-site withdrawals from other banks’ machines, while off-site transactions may attract an additional surcharge of up to N500, subject to disclosure at the point of use.

In a bid to protect borrowers, the regulator directed that all lending rates be presented as Annual Percentage Rates (APR), ensuring full disclosure of interest and associated fees.

 


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