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FXTM: Trump U-Turns Dollar Weakness Fails to Support Rand, Lira

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the US President Donald Trump’s latest comments and escalating geopolitical risks.

The recent escalation of geopolitical risks dominating the financial market headlines has been briefly removed from investors’ radars after US President Donald Trump once again took the markets by surprise.

This time, President Trump made U-turns on several of his previous public views, making investors wonder whether he could be gradually abandoning some of his core election pledges. While it is not a surprise at all to hear the US President make downbeat comments over the Dollar, backing away from labelling China as a currency manipulator and seemingly supporting the need for lower US interest rates is a real surprise.

Trump reversing away from a previously well-documented aggressive stance on China will go a long way to improving his image in mainland China; it will also be seen by many other observers as an attempt towards improving diplomatic ties, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to the United States.

Away from diplomacy, this shift in tone should be viewed as a positive development for the financial markets, as it reduces the risk of China abandoning its US Treasury Holdings as a result of the previous risk of President Trump beginning a trade war with China.

Most emerging market currencies across Asia have welcomed the latest comments from the US President, with the majority of currencies across the Asian Pacific moving somewhat higher against the Dollar.

Emerging market currencies that are particularly sensitive to speculation around US interest rate rises, such as in Malaysia, Indonesia and perhaps the Indian Rupee, will also applaud comments around the need for lower US interest rates.

It has been noted that the Bond markets have benefitted from Trump’s unexpected comment that he “likes” the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate policy.

However, the potential for further gains in the Asian emerging market currency space will be attributed to expectations of the Fed pulling the trigger on an interest rate rise once again in June drifting lower and also whether Trump next chooses to take a softer stance on protectionist policies.

While emerging market currencies across Asia have benefitted from Trump’s comments, it has not helped to find a bid for either the South African Rand or Turkish Lira. Both currencies are plagued by political risk, with the upcoming referendum in Turkey this weekend giving possible cause for a major event risk over the Easter weekend.

The Turkish Lira and South African Rand are obviously not correlated in any way, but with both currencies being plagued by political issues, this is impacting investor confidence and weakening economics that includes impending inflation risks.

Inflation risks are going to be a major headline attraction for the Rand over the next couple of months, following the currency being squashed to pieces in recent weeks.

Gold eyes $1300
The 2017 revival in the value of Gold is showing no signs of slipping, after the precious metal climbed to fresh levels not seen since the US Election, getting marginally close to $1290 earlier in trading on Thursday.

These are still uncertain times in the financial markets and some would even add global politics, meaning investors are keeping Gold as a close ally when it comes to hedging.

The combination of uncertainty when it comes to political risks, the upcoming elections in France, rising geopolitical tensions and doubts over Trump’s ability to follow through with his campaign promises presents an ongoing threat to investors entering a period of “risk-off” that is too difficult to ignore when it comes to being encouraged towards Gold.

Sterling Backs Away from Attempt for 1.26
After benefiting from the unwinding of USD positions, it appears that the GBPUSD is at threat of shying away from an attempt to reach 1.26 before the markets close for the Easter holidays. If you ask me, the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit’s direction is still enough motivation to maintain a negative mindset towards the Pound.

Investors are likely to continue utilising sell-on rally opportunities in the Cable, when the pair climbs near 1.25 with this being the mindset traders have exploited for months.

 

 


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E-Financial

World Bank Approves $300m Loan to Support IDPs in Northern Nigeria

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World Bank has said that it has given approval of $300 million to fund a new project aimed at bolstering access to services and economic opportunities for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their host communities in northern Nigeria.

World Bank Approves $300m Loan to Support IDPs in Northern Nigeria

In a release, the World Bank said the Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project (SOLID) was approved on August 7.

It stated that the project will adopt an integrated development strategy to help displaced persons and host communities transition from humanitarian aid to self-reliance and resilience.

It also said the ongoing conflict and insecurity in the region have displaced more than 3.5 million people, straining infrastructure and deepening competition for scarce resources in affected communities.

The bank said SOLID will build on previous government and partner interventions, including the multi-sectoral crisis recovery project (MCRP), which focused on emergency recovery.

“Key areas of focus include building climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting social cohesion, supporting livelihoods, and strengthening institutions to better respond to the pressures of forced displacement.

“We are glad to support this initiative which has a tremendous potential to help Nigeria in addressing development challenges associated with protracted displacement in a sustainable way,” Mathew Verghis, World Bank country director for Nigeria, said.

“The Project’s integrated approach which is aligned with the National IDP Policy and the FGN’s long-term development vision will ensure that IDPs and host communities can transition from dependency on humanitarian assistance to self-reliance and resilience which will open up better economic opportunities,” it added.

The World Bank, which noted that the cproject is expected to benefit up to 7.4 million people, of whom up to 1.3 million individuals are identified as IDPs, added that the project will be implemented through a coordinated, community-driven approach involving all tiers of government, with strong partnerships from international stakeholders.

 

 

 

 


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UBA Unveils Revamped Website, Heralds New of Digital Experience

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United Bank for Africa (UBA), Plc, Africa’s Global Bank, has launched its revamped Group website to enhance users’ digital experience.

UBA Unveils Revamped Website, Heralds New of Digital Experience

The newly revamped website boasts of a faster, smarter, and more dynamic digital platform, designed to deliver live news updates, real-time Nigerian stock prices, and a world-class user experience among other world-class features.

The upgrade marks a significant leap in the bank’s digital transformation journey, setting new standards for speed, accessibility, and innovation in the African banking industry.

Alero Ladipo,  group head, Marketing and Corporate Communication, UBA, who spoke excitedly about the revamped website, explained that the redesign focuses on simplifying user-journey, improving responsiveness across all devices, and incorporating a language-agnostic interface that caters to the bank’s diverse global audience.

She explained that with its sleek, intuitive layout and enhanced navigation, the site empowers customers, investors, and stakeholders to access critical information instantly – whether it is the latest market movements, breaking financial news, or UBA’s wide range of products and services.

Ms Ladipo said, “We are thrilled to unveil our new website, which represents a significant milestone in our digital transformation journey. Our goal is to provide a world-class digital experience that meets the evolving needs of our customers and stakeholders.”

Continuing, she added, “A major highlight of the upgrade is its speed, powered by an upgraded server infrastructure with enhanced load balancing to ensure minimal downtime and lightning-fast performance. By combining speed, accessibility, and live market intelligence, our new platform strengthens our position as an industry leader.”

She pointed out that the site also integrates automated news updates powered by International agency, Bloomberg and real-time stock prices tracking, ensuring visitors remain informed at all times.

Throwing more light on the new features, Amanda Oguamanam, head, Digital and Online Marketing, UBA, said; “We have transformed our website to be faster, cleaner, and more engaging, removing clutter by over 60%, upgrading servers for speed and reliability, streamlining navigation, and tailoring content to inspire global partners while making it easier for customers to find what they need.”

Other standout features, she added, include improved accessibility for users with disabilities, dark/light mode toggle, advanced search functions, and a simplified content structure, which are all designed to deliver an inclusive, modern experience for a global audience.

The revamped website is live and accessible at www.ubagroup.com.

United Bank for Africa is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group wide and serving over 45 million customers globally.

Operating in twenty African countries and the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France and the United Arab Emirates, UBA provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services, leading financial inclusion and implementing cutting-edge technology.


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NBS Reports ₦6.72 Trillion VAT Haul as Tax Reforms Pay Off

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Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue surged to ₦6.72 trillion in 2024, marking an 84.6% increase from ₦3.64 trillion in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This sharp rise reflects stronger economic activity and improved tax collection efforts across key sectors.

VAT revenue showed consistent growth throughout the year. In Q1 2024, collections stood at ₦1.43 trillion. This rose to ₦1.56 trillion in Q2, representing a 9.09% increase. Q3 recorded ₦1.78 trillion, up 14% from the previous quarter, while Q4 peaked at ₦1.95 trillion, a 9.5% rise from Q3.

In Q4 alone, VAT collections totaled ₦1.95 trillion, with domestic VAT payments contributing ₦917.40 billion, non-import foreign VAT at ₦554.68 billion, and import VAT at ₦474.75 billion. Domestic VAT remained the largest source, indicating strong local business activity and consumer spending.

Several sectors posted significant quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4. Extraterritorial organisations and bodies saw a dramatic rise of 180.05%, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing at 70.83%, and human health and social work at 46.13%. These gains suggest increased operational scope, improved compliance, and possibly targeted government incentives.

However, not all sectors fared well. Households as employers and self-use production contracted by 28.97%, while the information and communication sector declined by 23%. The drop in ICT may reflect shifting market dynamics or regulatory headwinds affecting digital services.

Overall, the surge in VAT revenue signals a positive fiscal outlook for Nigeria, with implications for budgetary planning, infrastructure investment, and social services funding. It also highlights the importance of sector-specific monitoring to sustain momentum and address emerging challenges.


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